Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
463 FXUS64 KBMX 151842 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 142 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025 - There is a moderate to major heat risk across central Alabama today and Wednesday. To avoid heat-related illness, heat safety should be exercised for people and pets. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025 The main weather story for this short-term will continue to be the heat, as upper-level ridging will remain in place for the next few days. Given the placement of the ridge, afternoon heat index values should climb above 105 degrees in the afternoon for our western zones, with lower heat index values anticipated east. To account for these higher heat index values, a heat advisory has been issued for a good chunk of our region for Wednesday. As for our eastern zones, tropical moisture will begin to work its way in, as a disturbance moves west off of Florida. This will result in increased cloud cover, and rain chances during the afternoon hours, slightly suppressing peak heating. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025 This tropical disturbance will continue to meander into the Gulf towards the weekend, allowing for that rich tropical moisture to completely overtake the region. In turn, cloud cover and rain chances will expand across the area, keeping afternoon highs in the low-90s. This should prevent the need for future heat advisories through the weekend. However, it appears as if upper- level ridging will quickly build back in by Monday, and linger for much of the new workweek. There is already a pretty decent signal that heat index values will quickly climb back to 105 degrees or above, which may result in an extended period of heat headlines come Monday. /44/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025 VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period. However, a stray shower or thunderstorm could affect KMGM and KASN past 16/20z, but confidence was not high enough to carry that in any TEMPO or PROB30 groups at this time. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values will begin to climb over the next few days, as a surge of tropical moisture works into the region. This surge will also result in increased rain chances, keeping the fire weather threat little to none. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 95 73 93 / 10 20 20 40 Anniston 73 92 73 91 / 10 20 20 40 Birmingham 75 96 75 92 / 10 20 10 40 Tuscaloosa 76 96 76 92 / 0 20 10 50 Calera 75 94 75 91 / 10 20 10 50 Auburn 75 91 73 90 / 20 30 10 50 Montgomery 76 94 75 92 / 20 30 20 70 Troy 73 92 72 92 / 20 50 20 70 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties: Bibb-Blount-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar- Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Tuscaloosa- Walker-Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM.../44/ LONG TERM..../44/ AVIATION.../44/