Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDVN 051154
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
654 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OVER OREGON AND RIDGING SPANNING THE CENTRAL US.
AT THE SURFACE....COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW IN WESTERN ONTARIO TO
LOW OVER EASTERN WYOMING. SECOND FEATURE OF NOTE IS INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SHOWERS AND SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. TREND
SHOULD BE FOR PRECIP AREA TO SHRINK AND WEAKEN AS UPPER SUPPORT
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS REDEVLOPING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR REMNANTS OF THE WARM FRONT
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THUS HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR THIS
EVENTUALITY.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY TODAY WITH TEMPS AROUND 90 AND
HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.  SOME MID CLOUD
REMNANTS WILL LIKELY INITIALLY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.  HOWEVER...SOUTH WIND INCREASING
TO ABOUT 10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
OFFSET THE POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE REDUCTION ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF WET WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK THEN TURNING
MUCH COOLER BY NEXT WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ WILL BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EJECTS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
STALL IN OR NEAR CWA UNTIL MID-WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES PARALLEL
TO MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE AIDED BY SOUTHWEST MONSOON WITH EMBEDDED
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN LOOK TO PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. THIS DEEP MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE FRONT AND
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST MONSOONAL FETCH WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND WOULDNT RULE OUT SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES IF AREAS SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION.
SPECIFIC TIMING AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR RAINFALL STILL DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT... WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO HAVING LIKELY POPS
OVER SEVERAL DAYS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE LAST OF THE HOT DAYS WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS
THEN THEREAFTER INTO MID-WEEK WILL SEE TEMPS COOLING DOWN BEING MODULATED
BY THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

SUGGESTIONS OF AT LEAST TEMPORARY DRYING MID-WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
INTO ONTARIO AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE CWA. THEN
THE GFS... ECM AND GEM SHOW MORE AGREEMENT ON EJECTING ANOTHER TROUGH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE THU-FRI TIME PERIOD WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWER CHANCES. STRONGER COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AND LOOKS TO USHER IN
DRY WEATHER AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH FALL-LIKE TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS PER GFS AND ECM LOWERING TO AROUND 3C TO 5C. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR U30S/40S FOR LOWS BY SUNDAY AM AND HIGHS IN THE
60S. THIS IN LINE WITH LATEST 8-14 DAY (SEP 12-18) OUTLOOK OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF CWFA TAF SITES. OTHERWISE ANOTHER
HOT AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...DMD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.