Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDVN 062049
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
249 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WERE BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE DVN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. 2 PM READINGS RANGED FROM THE MID 20S
AT DUBUQUE AND FREEPORT TO THE MID 40S IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MO. WHERE
THERE WAS LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S FROM CENTRAL IA/NORTHERN MO WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING OUT OF ALBERTA WILL TRACK TO NEAR THE
MN ARROWHEAD BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST WIND GOING
AT 5 TO 10 MPH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S ALONG HIGHWAY 20
TO THE LOWER 30S IN OUR FAR SOUTH.

SATURDAY...AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WILL DROP A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA...WHICH WILL TURN
WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS THE ONSET OF
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS AND AREA OF
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION TRIGGERED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW. THE GEM IS ALSO SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT AND
SIMILAR...BUT ALSO APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE AND OVERDONE WITH BOTH
FEATURES. THIS MORNING/S GFS AND WRF REMAIN WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE
AND TRENDED SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
CLOSEST TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF TRACK WITH LOW POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...THEN RAIN/SNOW MIX EXITING TO THE
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WOULD BE OVER NW CANADA OR AK
THIS MORNING AND THE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE IS ALSO
QUESTIONABLE. THUS...WILL BE KEEPING POPS LOW FOR NOW.

INITIALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER
REMAINING SNOW COVER SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 20S. SUNDAY...IF THE
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS CORRECT...THERE SHOULD BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER THAT WOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 30S NE TO
MID 40S SW. IF CLOUD COVER IS NOT THAT EXTENSIVE...THESE NUMBERS MAY
BE TOO COOL.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH SIMILAR BENIGN SURFACE FEATURES AND A
MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE GFS HAS PULLED AWAY FROM ITS
EARLIER RUNS THAT HAD A STRONG COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND IS NOW MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF LACKING
THIS FEATURE. WHAT DOES REMAIN THE SAME IS THE CONSISTENTLY COOLER
GFS AND RELATED MOS TEMPERATURE FIELDS THROUGHOUT WHICH APPEARS TO
BE RELATED TO THE MODEL MAINTAINING A STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION
THROUGH THE DAY LIGHT HOURS OVER OUR CURRENT SNOWPACK. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE ECMWF SOUNDINGS HAVE MIXING OUT TO NEARLY 900 MB IN
THE WARM ADVECTION LOW LEVEL S-SW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WHILE
SOMEWHAT COMPROMISED TOWARD THE COOLER GFS...OUR EXTENDED FORECAST
HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH OUR ADVERTISED SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND.
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHOULD REACH AT LEAST
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH LOWS WARMING FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S EARLY TO WIDESPREAD 30S AND POSSIBLY EVEN
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT LATE IN THE WEEK. OUT OF THIS STRETCH...WED
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST WITH 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH
COULD END UP BEING REALIZED WELL INTO THE I-80 CORRIDOR IF CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING TONIGHT CONDS WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
THEN SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY WITH VEERING WINDS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...HAASE






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.