Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 302349
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
649 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

18Z surface data has low pressure near KSTL. A warm front extended
from the low into central Indiana. Dew points were in the 30s from
the Great Lakes into the central and northern Plains. Dew points in
the 40s and higher ran from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains
on south to the Gulf Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

An upper level disturbance from the overnight convection is moving
northeast across southern Illinois. This disturbance has developed
an arc of thunderstorms from east of Quincy into southern Illinois.

Based on radar and RAP trends, the best chances for rain late this
afternoon is south of I-80. The more stable air across the area
should cause any thunderstorms to dissipate as they move north.
However, some isolated thunderstorms are possible south of a KVYS to
KFFL line through sunset.

Across the northern half of the area spotty light rain and drizzle
can be expected through sunset.

After sunset, the better forcing associated with the storm system
will move into eastern Illinois and Indiana. Rain will end from west
to east overnight with areas west of the Mississippi dry by sunrise
Friday.

On Friday, any lingering light rain will end east of the Mississippi
during the morning leaving dry conditions for the afternoon.

Clouds are expected to remain in place overnight and Friday morning
before clearing occurs from west to east during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Active weather pattern is expected to continue in the extended with
not much change to the going forecast. Friday night and Saturday,
dry conditions are expected as a ridge of high pressure builds over
the Mississippi River Valley region.  The next chance for
precipitation comes late Saturday night through early Monday with
the passage of a low pressure system to our south.  A brief break in
the precipitation chances is expected Monday through midday Tuesday,
before the next; and more potent; system takes a more direct path
over the area for Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Generally IFR conditions tonight with patchy light rain/drizzle ending
by late evening as a low pressure system in Iowa moves slowly east.
The low clouds will rise to MVFR by mid/late morning as the low continues
to move east. Northeast winds 5 to 15+ MPH will shift to the north
tonight through Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Recent heavy rainfall has resulted in some rises on area tributary
rivers.  In particular, the Wapsipinicon River near De Witt and the
Rock River at Joslin and Moline; where they are expected to reach
within a foot of their respective flood stage levels within the next
1 to 3 days.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...Nichols
HYDROLOGY...14


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