Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 110554

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1154 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016


Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Mainly light snow was falling across much of the dvn cwa this
afternoon as the atmosphere continued to completely saturate.
Temperatures were mainly in the lower to mid 20s.

Low pressure in eastern Colorado with 3-hrly pressure falls of 6 mb
in the Great Plains.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Forecast focus on significant winter storm through Sunday.

Tonight: Storm system will track across the area with the best
forcing and higher snow/liquid ratios located north of Highway 30.
This is where the heavier snow amounts will be located and the
winter storm warning remains in effect. There may be a break in
the snow for a time early this evening before the next wave of
snow pushes into the area. Lows will be in the 20s.

Sunday: Low pressure will push across northern MO with another
area of heavier snow developing in western and northern IL. By the
time the snow ends amounts should be 6 to 10 inches north of
Highway 30, to 3 to 6 inches along the Interstate 80 corridor and
less than an inch in far northeast MO. Locations in our far south
may experience a mix of rain and snow as the freezing line pushes
northward into that area.

The good news is there will not be much wind so blowing/drifting
is not expected to be an issue. Highs will range from the lower
30s along Highway 20 to the mid 30s south.

Sunday night: The storm system shifts east of the cwa during the
evening ending any lingering snow, followed by partial clearing.
Colder air will push into the cwa behind the storm system. Lows
should range from the single digits far nw to the lower 20s far

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

..Bitterly Cold Temperatures By Mid Week..

Monday through Thursday...12Z Saturday deteministic model runs prog
the polar vortex located near the arctic circle to dive southeast to
just west of Hudson Bay by mid week. This movement will produce a
broad cyclonic flow aloft and push a bitterly cold arctic air mass
over the upper Midwest. On Monday evening, a weak shortwave will
pass through the flow aloft bringing a slight chance of snow across
the northern forecast area.

With snow cover blanketing the region, high temperatures by mid week
will only be around 10 degrees across the northern forecast area
with highs in the teens over the south. Low temperatures Wednesday
and Thursday nights will be near zero with some locations dipping to
-10 degrees. Bitterly cold wind chills in the -15 to -25 degree
range will likely occur on Wednesday and Thursday mornings. There is
another chance of snow Wednesday afternoon as the next shortwave
moves through the cyclonic flow aloft.

Friday and Saturday...Long range model blend show the next chance of
snow late in the week as a fairly strong piece of energy is ejected
towards the midwest from a longwave trof digging south along the
California coast.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

06Z TAFS upated for recent trends, which have delayed the onset of
the next round of snow, mainly impacting KCID/KDBQ with IFR
conditions, briefly LIFR visibilities in pockets of heavier snow.
During the day Sunday, the focus of the main precipitation area
will shift to KMLI/KBRL. Expecting mainly -SN at KMLI, and -RASN
at KBRL.


IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for Benton-Cedar-

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for Buchanan-Delaware-

IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for Bureau-Henry
     IL-Putnam-Rock Island-Whiteside.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for Carroll-Jo



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