Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 062004
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
304 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MN TO NORTHERN CO AND WAS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED
WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY. EVEN IN WESTERN UPPER MI READINGS WERE NEAR
90. IN THE DVN CWA...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY FIRED ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN HIBBING
AND DULUTH MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT...A MILD NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...COOLER AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
DURING THE AFTERNOON THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN CWA. WITH LATE AFTERNOON HEATING THERE SHOULD BE
INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND JUST
BEHIND THE STALLED FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
AND SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA...EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO AND WESTERN IL. FROM ABOUT HIGHWAY 30 ON NORTHWARD
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE MID 70S IN OUR
FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...12Z FRIDAY DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN STALLING A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND THEN LIFTING IT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS MOVES TOWARDS IOWA/ILLINOIS.
THE MODELS SHOW THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ALL THE WAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ON SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY DRY SKIES EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING AS A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR OR OVER IOWA/ILLINOIS. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER PROGS TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN AMOUNTS IN SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE HEAVY AND EXCEED 2 INCHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD WITH ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
PROVIDING ANY FORECAST SPECIFICS AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS VARY ON
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
MENTION VCSH. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...HAASE



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