595
ACUS03 KWNS 130728
SWODY3
SPC AC 130727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
southern High Plains, the eastern Carolinas, and the central Florida
Peninsula.

...Mid-Atlantic into the FL Peninsula...
A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the
middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before
gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving
off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place
throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the
Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward
throughout the day.

Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the
period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected
to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther
east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start
the day near the eastern NC/VA border before then moving
northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward
from this low into southeast GA and northern FL will be the focus
for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and
attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across
the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Warm mid-level temperatures may
mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but deep updrafts are still possible.
Strong westerly flow will extend across the Peninsula, supporting
the potential for a few more organized storms capable of hail and/or
damaging gusts.

Farther north, modest destabilization is anticipated across the
eastern Carolinas ahead of the approaching shortwave trough.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the
afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should
promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts
becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts.

...Central/Southern Plains...
The central/southern Plains are expected to lie between shortwave
ridging over the MS Valley and a deepening upper low over southern
CA/Baja on Wednesday, with largely zonal westerly flow anticipated
across the region. A weak cold front is expected to stretch from
central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it
intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating is anticipated south
of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass
likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence
near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the
dryline, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Upslope
flow is also possible around the low into southwest KS/far southeast
CO, contributing to potential thunderstorm development in this area
as well. Any storms that mature could produce strong downdrafts
and/or isolated hail.

..Mosier.. 05/13/2024

$$