788
ACUS03 KWNS 110738
SWODY3
SPC AC 110737

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND
EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday from central and east Texas
into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A southern-stream shortwave trough will likely extend from the
central Plains south-southwestward into northeast Mexico early
Monday morning, with associated strong mid-level flow spread from
the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. This shortwave is
forecast to move gradually eastward, with some phasing possible with
a northern-stream shortwave contributing to more expansive troughing
from the Mid MS Valley into the eastern southern Plains by early
Tuesday morning.

Primary surface low associated with the southern-stream shortwave is
expected to progress eastward/northeastward from south-central KS
into the Mid MS Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will
push southeastward through much of OK, TX and the Ozark Plateau,
reaching the Mid/Lower MS Valley by early Tuesday morning. A very
moist and unstable air mass will be in place ahead of this front,
with low 70s dewpoints initially extending from central into
northeast/east TX before spreading eastward with time. Moderate to
strong southwesterlies at the base of the shortwave will also
support to robust vertical shear, with the resulting combination of
buoyancy and shear contributing to an environment supportive of
severe thunderstorms.

Convective evolution of these storms is uncertain, particularly with
eastern extent, but the general expectation is for storms to develop
along the front and then push eastward throughout the day. Given the
ample low-level moisture, development along the front could occur
quite early, with one or more convective lines evolving over time.
Large to very large hail will be the primary severe threat
initially, with a trend towards more damaging gust potential as
storms grow upscale. Relatively weak low-level flow show keep the
tornado threat low. The only exception is near the warm front, which
will likely extend from northeast TX eastward into the southern
AR/northern LA vicinity from Monday morning until at least the mid
afternoon.

..Mosier.. 05/11/2024

$$