Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 260824
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
324 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 323 AM CDT TUE SEP 26 2017

A cold front draped across our CWA will be the main story over the
next 24 hours.  Scattered rain showers will accompany this front as
it very slowly moves to the SE throughout the day.  These showers
will be most intense in the morning and start to dissipate
throughout the day with almost no precipitation expected in our area
by the evening as all forcing for precipitation weakens. The
boundary is expected to usher in a cooler airmass with today being
the coolest of the days with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
due to added stratus clouds behind the front lasting most of the
day. This boundary is expected to stall over our southern CWA as a
weak stationary boundary with some isolated chances of showers
and light rain Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, but
precipitation amounts will be almost negligible.

Surface high pressure will build into the area quickly Wednesday and
dominate the weather pattern as the long wave trough over the
southern Rockies gets cut off and stalls any progressing in the
upper level pattern.  This cooler airmass will keep our high
temperatures in the lower 70s and our lows in the lower 50s through
the weekend, making it one of the nicest weekends of the year. The
next chance for precipitation will finally reach our area Monday
morning as a shortwave trough moves into the west coast and finally
ejects that stalled cutoff low into the northern plains. The pattern
looks almost like a mirror image of tonight except the N-S oriented
boundary looks to stall over our area instead of central KS.  This
boundary looks to stick around for a few days so it is possible the
area might get some much needed rain if this solution pans out, but
currently only the GFS has a more widespread precipitation pattern
as the ECMWF is mostly dry after Monday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 25 2017

Cold front, reinforced by outflow, has pushed through the area.
Showers and an occasional thunderstorm will remain possible
through the overnight but there may be another round of more
widespread precipitation move in to the area tomorrow morning.
Conditions are expected to become low VFR and possibly IFR later
tonight into Tuesday morning. These should linger through the
afternoon hours. Winds should remain from the north at 5 to 10
mph.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...CDB


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