Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 301110
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

For this morning, widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm are possible as a shortwave trough moves quickly
through the region. A cold front will also sweep through the area
with this wave, veering winds sharply to the northwest at speeds of
15 to 25 mph, before lessening slightly as the front moves off to
the southeast. Temperatures behind the boundary should not be
immediately colder, and may still reach the mid to even upper 60s
early this afternoon as sunshine returns, but will then fall during
the late afternoon hours as the colder air slowly filters down.

Much colder temperatures are expected for Friday as a surge of cold
Canadian air pushes into the eastern Plains and strong surface high
pressure builds in across the central CONUS. Highs are expected to
top out only in the lower to middle 40s Friday afternoon, making for
a very chilly Halloween throughout the region. Temperatures Friday
night will drop quickly into the lower 30s, and will eventually
bottom out in the mid to upper 20s by early Saturday morning. A
freeze warning has been issued for the entire area, as these cold
temperatures are expected to end the growing season.

A slow warming trend will begin Saturday and continue through early
next week as the eastern trough quickly departs, allowing southerly
flow to return at low levels and ridging to build aloft. The upper-
level ridge will be short-lived as a low pressure system lifts from
the Rockies into North Dakota on Sunday night and Monday, dragging a
slow-moving cold front through our area Monday through Tuesday. A
few showers and isolated storms are possible out ahead of the front
Sunday night, but will become more likely and more widespread on
Monday and Monday night as the boundary sets up across the region.
The highest PoPs have shifted slightly north from previous forecast
issuances, but the heaviest rainfall and best chance for widespread
showers and storms will still be across the southeastern half of the
CWA, especially Monday night.

The front will eventually sink south of the region and settle near
the Gulf by midweek; however, temperatures should be fairly mild in
its wake as the low heads off to the northeast and zonal flow fills
in behind. At this time, no addition precipitation is expected
beyond the departure of the cold front on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Widely scattered light showers will continue to move east southeast
across the region this morning; however, no significant visibility or
ceiling restrictions are expected. Winds will remain around 10 kts
out of the S to SW this morning, then a cold front will sweep through
between 15z and 18z, veering winds to the northwest and increasing
speeds to 15 to 20 kts, with possible higher gusts. Showers should
end behind the cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






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