Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 201753
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1253 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Mainly VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected through
the TAF period. Some patchy light fog may develop at KSTJ as winds
go calm after 06z, and any fog that does develop may be slower to
dissipate with light winds after sunrise Tuesday. Light, patchy
ground fog is also possible at MCI and IXD, but confidence was too
low to include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin






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