Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 150941
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
341 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 341 AM CST FRI DEC 15 2017

Satellite imagery shows a decent sized trough swinging across the
Great Plains resulting in a clipper system shifting across the Lower
Missouri River Valley early this morning. While a few returns have
been noted on radar, the system has been too moisture starved across
our section of Missouri or Kansas to produce anything other than
some light returns on radar, with no precipitation noted making
it the ground. As the clipper moves east today there will be a
notable circulation left across the Desert Southwest, which will
play a part in the forecast at the end of the weekend. But till
then, the exiting of the clipper system will allow for the quick
evolution of a split flow across the Desert Southwest into the
Plains States allowing warmer temperatures to advect in across the
region today and Saturday. However, temperatures wont stay warm
as the circulation in the Desert Southwest will eject across the
Plains Sunday as a "kicker" trough swinging across the West Coast,
setting the stage for our next best chance at some precipitation
across the region Sunday morning.

Models are in decent agreement on the timing of the ejecting Desert
Southwest trough late in the weekend, providing high confidence on
the current forecast for Sunday morning. Expectations are that the
developing southerly return flow, that will bring the warm
temperatures (around 60) Saturday, will also bring some Gulf
moisture with it. Thus, as the Desert Southwest trough ejects
across the Plains late Saturday night through Sunday there will be
a likely chance that we could get some precipitation Sunday
morning as isentropic upglide get going. Currently, focus for the
higher precipitation totals looks to be farther south and east
than our section of Missouri, but widespread light amounts of few
hundredths (in northwest MO) to a couple of tenths of an inch (in
central MO) look possible. The low expectations on precipitation
totals is due in part to the rapid transit of the ejecting
circulation. Conditions are expected to dry out by Sunday
afternoon.

After our chance of rain Sunday, the rest of the 7-day forecast
looks dry as the prevailing westerlies shift into the northern
Plains. This will keep any precipitating system north of our section
of the Plains through next work week, while also allowing
temperatures to range a bit above normal, as highs will be in the
40s and 50s. However, by the end of the work week a new large trough
is expected to develop across the Plains, which will likely make for
cold temperatures by next weekend.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST THU DEC 14 2017

VFR clouds currently over the area will remain for the next
several hours. CIGs will come down a bit over the next 6 hours or
so, and may briefly touch MVFR levels. There could also be an
isolated snow flurry as these clouds move through. By Friday
afternoon skies will be partly cloudy, with VFR CIGs and gusty
winds, which will gradually weaken through the evening and
overnight Friday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Leighton



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