802
FXUS63 KEAX 051735
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1235 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are likely to move through the region
  late Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. Damaging wind
  gusts will be the primary threat, although large hail and a
  few tornadoes will also be possible.

- Widespread 1" to 1.5" of rain is likely on Monday night, with
  locally higher amounts possible. This could lead to additional
  flash flooding and river flooding concerns.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible again on Wednesday.

- Dry conditions with near normal temperatures are likely for
  Thursday and into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

GOES water vapor imagery plotted with 500 mb heights shows a
subtle shortwave trough over OK/TX and the much larger mid level
low and associated longwave troughing over the western CONUS. At
the surface, the cold front from yesterday currently resides
from southern IL into SE MO and into the Arkansas Ozarks with
surface high pressure building in over the Upper Mississippi
Valley. Current conditions across the region are defined by
temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s with light northerly
winds and generally clear skies. Cirrus will begin to overspread
the region from the south this morning in response to the
aforementioned shortwave over OK, with a scattered to broken mid
level cloud deck arriving by this afternoon. The surface low
associated with the shortwave should move into NE OK by later
this afternoon, lifting the boundary northward with it. This
may yield some showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two
for areas along and south of a Sedalia to Osawatomie line,
although the best chances should remain further south toward
the Interstate 44 corridor. High temperatures this afternoon
should range from the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

As we head into tomorrow, a potent mid/upper trough comes
across the Rockies, undergoing lee cyclogenesis and
progressively becoming more negatively tilted as it ejects
across the Central and Northern Plains. By late afternoon, a deep
surface low should be in place over the Northern High Plains,
with a warm front extending initially to the southeast of the
surface low before turning eastward near the MO/IA border and a
Pacific cold front/dryline extending southward through west
central KS and Oklahoma. With good moisture return, moderate to
high instability, and excellent deep layer shear thanks to a 50
to 70 knot mid level jet, supercells with highly impactful
severe weather of all types are likely to initiate Monday
afternoon along the boundary across portions of southern
NE/central KS/west central OK. It seems likely that these
storms will grow upscale into a severe squall line as they
progress eastward toward our region on Monday evening. Prime
time for our region appears to be Monday evening into the
overnight/early morning hours of Tuesday. If any storms do
manage to develop out ahead of the expected squall line, all
severe hazards would be very much in play. However, if it is
primarily a squall line as CAMs seem to be suggesting, damaging
wind gusts and potentially some embedded QLCS mesovortex
tornadoes would likely be the main concern. Additionally,
widespread moderate rain is likely, with rainfall totals on the
order of around 1" to 1.5" with locally higher amounts possible,
potentially yielding more flash flooding and river flooding.

Showers and storms should clear to the east by mid Tuesday
morning. By noon Tuesday, the closed low continues to spin over
the Northern Plains, with the surface low occluding. At this
time yesterday, it seemed as though strong to severe storms
could be possible over portions of the region Tuesday afternoon,
but newer model runs suggest that the environment will no longer
be conducive, in large part due to dewpoints only in the lower
to mid 50s Tuesday afternoon, limiting instability. Instead,
Tuesday afternoon should feature clear skies, a west
southwesterly breeze, and highs in the mid to upper 70s.

However, the environment becomes better primed for the potential
for strong to severe storms on Wednesday as an 850 mb low
develops over eastern KS with strong southwesterly 850 mb flow
overspreading the area, bringing in a resurgence of low level
moisture. With increased moisture, moderate instability, and 500
mb winds out of the WSW at 50 to 60 knots, strong to severe
storms will be possible on Wednesday, primarily along and
southeast of a Harrisonville to Macon line.

For Thursday and into the weekend, generally dry conditions
should take hold with temperatures near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected to remain for majority of the TAF
period. Intermittent, light rain may continue for an hour or two for
terminals south of I-70. Cloud coverage is expected to increase
later tonight after 02Z. Early tomorrow morning there is a chance
for some MVFR ceilings, but left out of TAFs due to uncertainty in
timing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Collier