000
FXUS63 KEAX 150356
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1056 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

This Afternoon - Tonight:

Very high to extreme fire danger will persist through late this
afternoon. Very dry conditions are occurring within an area of 20 to
25 mph wind gusts. While not as dry as yesterday, humidity values
are generally in the 20 to 25 percent range across much of
northwestern Missouri and eastern Kansas. Conditions will begin to
improve this evening as temperatures begin to cool down and winds
diminish considerably.

Saturday - Sunday:

A positively tilted trough from the Pacific Northwest will merge
with a wave that has been cutoff under the upper ridge over the
southwest. This will lead to what will effectively become a classic
treble-clef signature in the 1.5 PVU pressure fields. This supports a
rather dynamic system and will lead to accumulating snowfall over
parts of the forecast area.

However, ahead of the system, during the day Saturday, strong warm
and moist advection will occur. This will lead to high temperatures
climbing into the 70s with dewpoints climbing into the lower 50s.
This will allow for a few thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening hours. As the system approaches, a strong cold front will
move through the area with temperatures rapidly cooling off at the
surface during the overnight. Aloft however, temperatures will
initially still be well above freezing due to steep inversion. In
fact, this sounding is similar, but not as cold at the surface, as
the sounding from the sleet storm a few weeks ago. So there will be a
period of time when a mix of wintry weather will occur before the
entire column cools below freezing from north to south during the
event.

Models take the surface low through southern Missouri. This suggest
the best dynamics will set up just to our south. Models also suggest
a well developed TROWAL will develop over the southern portions of
the forecast area and into southern Missouri, with plenty of
moisture wrapping into the cold sector of the storm. With the best
dynamics looking to be along and to the south of the area, the
highest QPF will occur there. This also suggests that higher snow
rates will occur, compensating for a warm ground, and lead to higher
accumulations in our south. Have increased amounts to around an inch
in our south with less than an inch elsewhere. There is still a fair
amount of uncertainty with this however given temperatures will need
to cool off substantially aloft, at the surface and on the ground.

Monday - Friday:

The upper level pattern may begin to transition into more of a zonal
flow regime across the CONUS by the end of next week. But
initially, we`ll see the ridge over the West continue to prevail with
waves moving over top of it and into the Plains. Models continue to
show a wave moving across the area on Tuesday. However, there is
still considerable differences in the placement of the surface
features, with the GEM well east with the surface low and front
compared to the ECMWF and the GFS. Overall, made little change to
this period from the previous forecast and the forecast
initialization due to the uncertainty. There remains a small chance
for precipitation as the system moves through but given the timing
differences, confidence isn`t high enough to carry more than just
slight chance mention.

With regards to temperatures, aside from a cool down on Wednesday,
in the wake to the aforementioned trough and associated front,
temperatures look to be near to above normal with highs in the 50s
and 60s through the extended. Have trended temperatures warmer than
the forecast initialization, especially in our west, as a weak
ridging will move through mainly zonal flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the overnight through the
afternoon tomorrow as mainly clear skies tonight will give way to
scattered mid level clouds during the day tomorrow. Winds tonight
will be light out of the south before picking up to around 10kts
tomorrow morning. Tomorrow evening a cold front will approach the
area with the potential for light rain showers to affect the
terminals between 02Z-06Z (and beyond the TAF period). Visibilities
may be reduced to 5SM in showers however cigs will remain VFR around
3-4kft. Winds tomorrow evening will back to from the south to the
east-northeast between 10-15kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73