


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
421 FXUS63 KEAX 132028 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 328 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms linger through the afternoon and evening, gradually shifting south and eastward. Localized heavy rainfall resulting in ponding and pooling of water is possible. - A break in the activity Monday before more storm chances return for the rest of the week. - Many uncertainties persist with the upcoming pattern. Guidance continues to suggest a potential for localized heavy rainfall, especially across far northern MO.&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Weak flow, warm air, and saturated air dominates the pattern for today. Light and variable winds have kept the pattern fairly stagnant. A storm system across central MO this morning along with residual outflow boundaries from storms last night has resulted in some slow moving pop-up storms around the area. Cold pools and outflow from these storms are sustaining pulse storms. Localized heavy downpours are possible and periodic training of storms could create localized flooding risks; however, observations and reports have shown that runoff is generally meeting the rain rate keeping flooding impacts fairly subdued. An upper level shortwave finally ushers the trough axis through the region. This can be seen on radar and satellite with the slow southward movement of showers combined with the advancing clearing skies behind this present environment. As rain pushes out of the area through the evening overnight, clear skies, radiational cooling, and fresh rainfall (thus low level saturated air) creates a suitable environment for fog development. Forecast guidance paints visibility impacts ranging from 2-5 miles with some patchy <1 mile visibilities possible. Fog is expected to dissipate mid morning tomorrow. Shortwave ridging behind this trough calms skies down for Monday. Stagnant flow keeps saturated air around; however, the lack of lower level flow makes diurnal processes the primary driver of heating. This lack of additional warm air advection keeps temperatures and heat indicies from reach oppressive levels, but it is still going to feel quite warm out there with the lack of wind making it a bit muggy and stuffy. This weak flow pattern continues to dominate the upper levels with much of the flow on the 500mb map looking quite disorganized. Zonal flow across the northern CONUS contrasts with a high or low block across the souther CA coast. Several weaker pressure systems across the SE CONUS. These mild perturbations across the eastern CONUS will be enough to develop some showers and storms over the next several days. Starting with Tuesday, most of the region should remain dry; however, a small wave works through the eastern half of MO which could bring some isolated to scattered storm chances across SW and central MO during the afternoon and evening. Stronger precipitation chances arrive late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning as a deeper shortwave traverses the more zonal northern midlevel flow that dips into southern IA/northern MO. This will likely manifest itself as an overnight MCS. Given near 2 inch PWAT values supports the potential for expansive heavy rainfall across the northern part of the state. High rainfall totals are expected to be fairly localized making it difficult to pinpoint where the heavies rain will fall. Multiple factors could alter the rainfall outlook with the overall track of the storm being the most influential. Throughout Wednesday, the zonal flow to the north begins to push southward. This combined with the breakdown of the western Rex block begins to create strengthening pressure gradients across the central part of the country. This increases the flow of warm air and moisture into the region as well as creates more opportunities for convection. The peak timing for these storms looks to be Wednesday night as the low level jet begins to accelerate through the evening hours. This looks to blossom convection across the kinematic boundary which looks to continue into Thursday morning. Predictability of strong to severe storms during that time period remains too low with many uncertainties remaining. Guidance paints a very broad distribution of precipitation extending from the front range all the way to the Appalachians. This seems rather excessive and will likely become more precise as timing gets closer. Still earlier forecast expectations combined with seasonally high PWATS and a synoptic depiction suggesting storms moving parallel to a frontal boundary paint a possibility for potentially hazardous heavy rainfall later in the week. As guidance resolves short term challenges and higher resolution guidance comes into range, the extent of convective coverage will become more refined. Extended guidance looks to continue this pattern of broadscale pressure systems and subtle shortwaves sparking storms. GFS suggests the eventual development of a broad high across the southern CONUS which pushes the zonal flow back northward. This high eventually fights for dominance across the CONUS; however, in that process, several shortwave troughs embedded in the perimeter flow trigger scattered convection throughout the forecast period much like we have been seeing the past several week. The good news is that this keeps temperatures from rising to oppressive levels. Heat index values do look to approach triple digits several times, but passing shortwave troughs with weak cold fronts and precipitation knock heat index values back down before they can crest the 100 degree mark. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Weak flow and a storm system to the east continues to pass some low clouds over the terminals. Isolated showers also linger around IXD and to the east of MKC/MCI. These are expected to move eastward through the afternoon as a wave passes through the region. Sky coverage opens as thus wave moves through. Overnight, calm winds, clear skies, and saturated air presents a favorable environment for fog development. Uncertainty remains high in anticipated VIS impacts, but areas near valleys and bodies of water look to be the most likely to see significant VIS impacts. Fog clears out past sunrise with VFR conditions persisting through the remainder of the period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pesel AVIATION...Pesel