Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 301102
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
602 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 325 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

The heaviest of the rain is exiting the eastern part of the CWA this
morning however a couple more rounds of light rain are expected
today. The first will come this morning into the early afternoon as
a surface low lifts northward across eastern Kansas lifting a warm
front across the area. There will be a break this afternoon as the
warm wing of precipitation shifts north of the area and we become
dry slotted. However, one more round of light precipitation is
expected  this evening into tonight as the low, which will now have
become stacked, will finally shift eastward moving across northern
Missouri. Light wrap around showers will be possible as this low
move through the area with the higher POPs across northern Missouri.
A few light showers may persist into Monday morning across extreme
northern Missouri as the stacked low finally shifts northeastward
into the Great Lakes. Otherwise the area will dry out during the day
Monday. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Dry conditions will be short-lived however as precipitation chances
will return Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will occur as a
LLJ overruns a stalled frontal boundary extending from southern
Oklahoma into northern Arkansas. The nose of the LLJ will be focused
across northeastern Oklahoma and southern Missouri where the
heaviest precipitation is expected to fall. However, the southern
portion of the CWA will be on the northern edge of the precipitation
shield and will receive more rain. Conditions dry out Wednesday
night and Thursday however, Thursday night there will be another
chance for precipitation as a upper level trough slides through the
region. Conditions then look to dry out and warm up for the weekend
as upper level ridging builds into the Plains. Highs will be in the
60s Tuesday through Friday before rising into the 70s for the
weekend.
weekend

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

A line of thunderstorms is approaching the terminals from from the
south and is expected to affect the terminals from btn 12Z-14Z
with lgt shra thru the remainder of the morning hours. IFR
cigs/vis are expected to affect the terminals thru the morning as
well before lifting to MVFR this afternoon as rain moves out of
the terminals. The terminals should remain dry thru the afternoon
as the area become dry slotted however IFR cigs and -rain will
move back into the terminals tonight as an upper level trough
moves thru the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ057-060.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ031>033-038>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73


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