Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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990 FXUS63 KFGF 130451 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1151 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue to impact the region into Monday morning. - Areas of frost are expected for areas mainly north of US Highway 2 late tonight into Monday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Little change. Based on air quality values there has been noticeable improvement as anticipated in S Manitoba spreading south ever so slowly. Used HRRR sfc smoke for smoke grids which diminishes smoke north areas after 06z and then the south toward 12z. This can be re-evaluated later this morning as visible pic becomes avbl. No changes to temperatures or any frost advisory. Still early in the night. Seeing some false ceilings in some AWOS stations, detecting some remaining particle at around 4-5000 ft agl. UPDATE Issued at 703 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Clear sky tonight. Watching vsbl for some band of smoke. The initial thick band behind the front is gone and what is left are bands of smoke with vsbys 4-6SM. But upstream shows less smoke in S Manitoba and from HRRR smoke grids idea is for a slow diminish trend in smoke thru the night from the north. But it will take til daybreak in some areas. So idea of smoke in the grids looks good. Also with lesser smoke anticipated overnight in the northern fcst area makes sense to see mid 30s in that area with areas of frost. Few colder spots will likely get 33 or so. So no changes will be made to forecast or headlines. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Northwest flow on the back side of a mid/upper low centered over northwest Ontario is in place currently with surface ridging building south behind the cold front (now south of our forecast area in SD/central MN). The larger scale pattern becomes progressive and quasi-zonal with broad troughing developing in Canada, which results in a series of mid level shortwave ridges and troughs passing through the Northern Plains next week. This pattern will tend to support temperatures varying from the 60s to 70s each day as ridging/troughing passes which is within a standard deviation of climate averages (basically seasonal). There will also be increasing chances for light showers (and enough instability for low non-severe thunderstorm potential). The best resolve mid level wave arrives late Monday night through Tuesday, with likely rain showers and closer a 50-70% chance for at least 0.1" rainfall during that period. Excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms are not expected based on analogues and ensemble based machine learning during the next 7 days. Regarding smoke timing/impacts: Northwest flow continues to bring reinforcing periods of smoke into the region today, with the highest smoke concentrations closer to the frontal zone and wrapping up into the mid level low to our northwest. This smoke is originating from fires located over norther Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Satellite (matching up with latest HRRR/RAP smoke models) indicates a period of improvement possibly arriving this evening, though additional pockets of smoke may continue to rotate into the region through Monday morning becoming trapped below the nocturnal inversion. The shift in flow as the next mid level shortwave should result in surface smoke impacts eventually ending Monday, though the back side of that system could bring smoke right back as flow shifts back out of Canada later Tuesday night. Regarding frost impacts tonight: As smoke allows for long wave radiation to escape, it will not factor into low temperatures tonight the way clouds would. As actual cloud cover should remain mostly clear and winds should decrease, we should see good radiational conditions. Surface Tds are forecast to be in the 32-35F range during peak radiational cooling across our north-northeast, so the floor for our lows will be within range for frost conditions. NBM probs are low regarding the potential for widespread lows 35 or lower, however the pattern should support our traditional colder/outlying locations dropping to the 33-36F range supporting frost formation on surfaces. Based on experience of seeing those locations drop lower than guidance in similar patterns, confidence was high enough to issue a Frost Advisory (3am-8am) along the US/Canada border and near the Hwy 2 corridor in MN (where traditional colder spots are most likely to have frost impacts). In similar patterns the immediate Red River Valley (and urban areas) tend to remain higher, but there is still potential (less than 30% chance) for frost in outlying parts of counties just south of the current advisory where Tds may be near 36F. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Lingering 5-6SM smoke in SE ND and into WC MN up thru Bemidji. This should improve to P6SM after daybreak. Skies mainly clear, but some false ceilings from some AWOS sites due to particles aloft at the 4-5k ft agl layer. North wind 5 to 10 kts into Monday morning gradually turning more northeast and east into the aftn. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for NDZ006>008-016- 054. MN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for MNZ004>009- 013>017. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...Riddle