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000
FXUS63 KGID 180033
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
733 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be
  possible this evening and into the early morning hours
  Thursday. Gusty winds and hail will be the main weather
  concerns with any thunderstorms that develop.

- Rain and light snow showers will be possible Friday night into
  Saturday, and periodic showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible for portions of the area early next week.

- Cooler and unsettled weather expected through Saturday (highs
  in the 50s and lows around freezing), before warmer weather
  returns Sunday through the middle of next week with highs
  generally in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Tonight...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
across western Nebraska and make their way east this evening and
tonight. A front moving across the region will bring a shift to
gusty north-northeasterly winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to
30-40 mph this evening and tonight. This will also bring
showers and thunderstorms to the area, and a few of the
thunderstorms may be strong to severe. While larger hail
(about quarter to half-dollar size) may be possible, strong
winds will also be a threat with these storms, especially if
they develop into a small line or cluster of storms (which some
of the CAMs have been predicting). The most likely timeframe for
any strong to severe storms looks to be from approximately 9PM
tonight to 3AM Thursday morning. There should be some
beneficial moisture to at least some of the area with this, as
many locations from the tri- cities north may see a quarter of
an inch to half an inch of rain (areas south of the tri- cities,
including KS, will likely see a trace to maybe a tenth of an
inch if they get rain at all). Thursday morning lows will be in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Thursday through Saturday... Showers and storms from the
overnight event will have moved east of the area by sunrise
Thursday (or shortly after). Gusty northerly winds will continue
behind the front Thursday morning but will diminish gradually
going into the afternoon. Quieter weather is expected but
temperatures will be cooler as we sit under a broad upper trough
that will extend into the area from a low pressure centered
over Manitoba Canada, with highs in the 50s and lows ranging
from around freezing north to the upper 30s south. Friday will
look much the same with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.
Conditions will be dry most of the day, but another system will
bring showers back into the area by Friday evening into Friday
night. This is more likely to bring a little rain to southern
and western portions of the forecast area (a tenth of an inch or
so), and temperatures will be cold enough to potentially see a
dusting of snow over western portions of the forecast area
Saturday morning. Highs will once again manage to climb into the
50s Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...
A progressive upper level pattern of ridge-trough-ridge is
expected Sunday through the first half of next week.
Temperatures will become gradually warmer through the first half
of the week, with highs Sunday in the upper 50s and 60s, into
the 70s Monday, and in the 60s Tuesday. There will be a chance
of showers and thunderstorms for portions of the area both
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 733 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

- General overview for KGRI/KEAR:
We start out with high confidence VFR both the first 3-4+ hours
and the final 8 hours, but especially the middle 10 hours
(particularly 06-16Z) brings fairly high confidence sub-VFR
ceiling (most likely MVFR). Also, passing rain showers and even
a few thunderstorms are possible (if not likely) this evening-
overnight, with gusty winds/perhaps small hail possible. Last
but certainly not least, the vast majority of the period (save
for these first few hours) will be breezy to moderately windy,
as direction swings around to northerly behind a cold front.

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation details:
Starting with ceiling, high confidence VFR with only increasing
mid-level clouds these first 3-6 hours (although a brief sub-VFR
visibility cannot be ruled out in any passing shower/storm). The
main time frame for sub-VFR ceiling focuses 06-16Z, as various
models/guidance indicate high confidence in a lower stratus deck
passing through. For now have gone with prevailing lower-MVFR,
but it`s possible that at least sporadic IFR cannot be ruled
out. From roughly 16Z onward, high confidence in a return to VFR
as ceilings gradually/rise scatter out.

Precipitation-wise, things seem a little less straightforward,
but the bottom line is that almost anytime 02/03Z to roughly 12Z
carries a chance for at least a few passing
showers/thunderstorms (and perhaps even a few hours of steadier
activity). At this time, have focused the highest confidence
TEMPO group for -TSRA 02-05Z KEAR/03-06Z KGRI, but this could
easily be subject to amendment. Although odds favor any storms
being non-severe, they could enhance what will already be
increasingly-gusty winds, and possibly produce small hail.

- Wind details:
There is no doubt that the lightest winds of the period are
right away these first few hours (no more than 10-15 KT from the
east). However, as the night wears on, speeds will steadily pick
up as direction shifts more northeasterly and eventually
northerly (in response to low pressure passing to our south and
intensifying a cold frontal passage). The overall-strongest
speeds are expected mainly 06-12Z (sustained 20-25KT/gusts
30-35KT). During the latter half of the period Thursday daytime,
it will remain quite breezy (sustained 15-20KT/gusts around
25KT) before starting to subside very late in the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Pfannkuch