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000
FXUS62 KGSP 151843
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
243 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will linger to our south through the first half of
the week giving our region above normal temperatures and more
humidity than we`ve felt lately. Small chances of showers and storms
do return to some areas of the mountains in the middle of the week.
A front will approach our area from the west through the middle of
the week, and could bring more showers and thunderstorms by Friday
and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 232 PM: Sky remained mostly cloud-free across the fcst
area, but a few cu were beginning to form over some of the higher
peaks. Some of the guidance still makes a few showers late in the
day over the mtns. Temps appear to be on track this afternoon.
Warm, but not approaching record values yet. No changes.

In the very near term, we will continue to monitor a weak backdoor
cold front drifting southward over the Mid-Atlantic region that
will be responsible for focusing strong to severe storms thru this
evening. The overall thoughts haven`t changed much, in that the
front should have a difficult time pushing up against the slowly
building ridge over the Southeast/Carolinas, thus the guidance still
fails to bring any storms far enough S to affect our region. That
means another night mostly dominated by the sfc high pressure ridge
to our S and offshore, which will continue to bring more low level
moisture into our region. Low temps overnight will be another 3-5
degrees warmer than last night. A slight chance of showers will
be kept near the TN border in the event that a few dying showers
make a run at us from the NW.

Otherwise, on Tuesday the axis of the mid/upper ridge moves in from
the west and sharpens a bit, while a weak superimposed shortwave
moves past to our north during the day. The old frontal boundary
is expected to be draped along/near the VA line to start the day,
possibly sagging as far south as the NW Piedmont. The forcing
will not be as great, but there could be enough low level focus
for new convection in the afternoon near the boundary, so we
shall continue to carry a slight chance across the nrn tier of
zones. Better chances for deep convection will be across north
central NC, where there could be an outside chance of isolated
severe storms. High temps might be a degree or two cooler, hardly
noticeable, because of some increased afternoon cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2:20 PM EDT Monday: The short-term fcst picks up at 00z on
Wednesday with upper ridging lingering over the Southeast and upper
trofing moving off the New England Coast. At the same time, a closed
upper low will be lifting NE towards the Great Lakes. Over the next
couple of days, the upper low will move over the Great Lakes and
eventually get absorbed by another broad upper trof amplifying over
far southern Canada. This will flatten the ridge over our area as
the period wears on. At the sfc, a robust low pressure system will
lift out of the Great Plains and move a cold front to our doorstep
by late Wednesday. The bulk of the current model guidance continues
to trend drier with this fropa. It still looking like the boundary
will move thru our area early Thursday and should be moving off the
coast by Thurs aftn/evening. As such, I trimmed back precip chances
with slight to solid chance PoPs relegated to roughly the NW half of
our CWA for late Wed into early Thurs. Otherwise, we can expect warm,
predominately SWLY low-level flow across our area thru most of the
period with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s outside the
mtns on Thurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2:05 PM EDT Monday: The extended forecast picks up at 00z on
Friday with very broad upper trofing morphing into a large, closed
low over far south central Canada. Over the next couple of days, this
system will steadily translate eastward and over the northern Great
Lakes and open back up to the northern stream in the process. By the
latter half of the weekend, the upper low/trof will move over New
England and act to suppress the upper ridge over the Southeast.
At the sfc, our area is expected to be under a broad deformation
zone in the wake of a relatively dry fropa from the previous day.
Over the next few days, the sfc pattern will remain progressive,
with a fair amount of ambiguity amongst the operational models.
Another weak low is expected to develop Fri into Sat somewhere
over the Southeast, yet it remains unclear exactly where and how
long it will linger over the region. In addition, most of the long-
range model guidance tries to spin up another sfc low on Sunday
over the Southeast Coast. Regardless, there is decent agreement
that by the end of the period early next week, broad Canadian high
pressure will begin to spread over our area from the NW and bring
dry wx to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at all terminals through the period. Wind
should be S to SW through late today, possibly with some gusts east
of the mtns as we mix deeply. Cannot rule out an isolated shower
over the higher terrain, but not worth including at KAVL. Most of
any low clouds will dissipate with loss of daytime heating. Expect
wind to go light/variable at sunset. On Tuesday...continued fair,
with wind returning light S to SW from mid-morning onward. We
should have better low moisture, so some high-based stratocu can
be expected in the afternoon.

Outlook: Isolated SHRA/TSRA are not out of the question Tue and
Wed afternoons near the NC sites. Otherwise VFR generally will
persist through midweek. An unsettled pattern with precip chances
and periodic restrictions may develop Thu-Fri but confidence
remains low.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-15

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      89 1972     42 1943     64 1887     23 1907
   KCLT      89 1936     46 1889     66 2006     28 1907
   KGSP      91 2006     45 1913     69 1922     22 1907



RECORDS FOR 04-16

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      87 2006     42 1905     62 1945     26 1943
   KCLT      89 2006     49 1890     64 1998     29 2008
                1896                    1991        1962
                                        1945
   KGSP      88 1888     54 1903     64 1945     24 1907

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...JPT