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000
FXUS61 KGYX 151526
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1126 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moves across the region today with a few
showers possible. High pressure gradually builds in Tuesday and
Wednesday. A cold front approaches late in the week bringing
another chance for rain showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1125 AM...Quick update just to freshen up POPs mostly based on
current conds. One round of forcing is moving out of the ME mtns
bit cold front still progressing slowly S. With trough axis
moving through this afternoon could see a few showers along it
as it makes its way to the coast. Otherwise p/sunny and warm
this afternoon.

630 AM Update...No changes to the going forecast as all elements
remain on track.

Previously...

Upper level trough holds firm over Quebec southward into New
England today through Tuesday. A short wave trough moving
through the broader cyclonic flow will aid in pushing a weak
cold front through our forecast area later this morning into
this afternoon. Forcing for ascent and moisture availability is
lacking so just a few showers are possible this afternoon. Went
with a blend of MET and MAV guidance for highs today which are
one or two degrees higher than the NBM. Otherwise, a couple-hour
period of 25 knot gusts are possible across southern NH this
afternoon.

Early morning valley fog may be locally dense.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure gradually moves into the region tonight with
clearing skies and diminishing winds. Low temperatures derived
from a blend of MOS products.

Another weak cold front moves through on Tuesday with variable
clouds but no showers expected. Highs around 60 many areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overview: Warm and mostly dry weather for the long term, but a
few weak disturbances will bring the chance for showers late
week and this weekend.

Details: The area will remain in a pattern to keep highs in the
50s to lower 60s likely into late week. Low pressure will track
into the western Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon. This will
bring some rain into southern New England, but dry air looks to
hold on tight for Maine and much of New Hampshire. Guidance
profiles suggest a low to mid level cloud layer easily advancing
into the area Wed night, but don`t think this is deep enough to
suggest PoPs greater than slight chance until Thursday afternoon
or evening. These showers become more likely overnight into
Friday morning for much of the area.

The parent low departs towards James Bay, but the elongated
front partially washes out over ME/NH. This could leave some
convergence for another incoming front Friday evening. However,
current ensembles are quite bearish with QPF as both episodes
struggle to generate more than a quarter inch.

The latter part of the weekend sees broad high pressure across
the central CONUS start to nose in. This could see the area
running a couple degrees below normal considering the NW flow,
but also remaining mostly dry.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Local IFR early this morning through about 11z,
especially at NH terminals in fog. Otherwise, VFR today through
Tuesday. Some westerly 25 kt gusts possible at KCON and KMHT
this afternoon.

Long Term...VFR through Thursday afternoon. MVFR cigs may be
possible Thursday night into Friday with -SHRA. Another period
of restrictions will be possible Friday afternoon with
additional RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Seas continue to stay in the 5-7 ft range outside
the bays today. Conds stay below SCA tonight and Tuesday.


Long Term...Current forecast suggests long term will feature
largely below SCA conditions. Slow moving and weakening front
will cross the waters Thursday evening and overnight, with
another stronger front following up Friday afternoon. Both of
these will bring the chance of rain, but winds currently don`t
look overly impactful.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cempa/Ekster
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Cornwell