700
FXUS62 KILM 102322
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
722 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms through this evening ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front crosses the area tonight,
bringing much cooler and drier air for the weekend and start of
next week. Rain chances increase next Tuesday as a warm front
lifts north across the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Scattered severe storms, some supercellular, have been impacting
our area in rounds since 3PM with multiple reports of hail
(ranging from pea size to golf ball size) and trees down. Still
receiving reports and still have storms ongoing. There is a
current line of thunderstorms entering Marlboro county (at
715PM) - this is the location of the cold front and will be the
last hurrah for the evening. The front is estimated to reach the
coast in about two hours, with clearing skies behind it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mesoanalysis shows a cold front currently draped across central
NC and western SC. Modest destabilization is occurring along
this line after morning clouds gave way to some brief afternoon
clearing. This has allowed enough heating to fuel developing
storms and instability east of this line should be enough to
maintain storms as they approach the coast. As storms develop
along the line, associated shear and falling heights ahead of a
shortwave should allow this to become an organized complex of
storms. The entire system will progress southeast with the cold
front late this afternoon and into this evening. Damaging wind
gusts and large hail are the main concerns, especially as this
line strengthens and moves south and east into this evening. 18Z
sounding from MHX shows impressive, deep layer instability and
shear in excess of 50 knots. An environment shrouded in cloud
cover for a large part of the day appears primed for additional
storm development late this afternoon and this evening.

Once the line of showers moves offshore, winds turn northerly
and much cooler and drier air will move into the region for this
weekend. Quiet and clear on Saturday with highs only in the
upper 70s and dew points mixing into the low 50s and upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather for the weekend continues through Sunday. Surface
trough moves through Saturday night, with nothing more than a
wind shift and some clouds. Mostly sunny Sunday as high pressure
briefly moves overhead and strong subsidence inversion is in
place. Temps only slightly below normal during the short term,
with downslope flow Sunday pushing highs to near 80F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure shifts offshore Monday, with subsidence
still in play keeping area rain-free during the day. A warm
front is progged to lift north across the area Tuesday, with
combination of decent isentropic lift and some PVA aloft
contributing to categorical pops. As PWAT values approach 2"
which is well above the 90th percentile for mid-May, ensemble
data suggests QPF Tuesday could be around 0.75-1". Clouds and
rain will keep temps "cool" Tuesday despite strong WAA.

A weak surface low moves across the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday night,
dragging a weak cold front over the area sometime Wednesday.
Some lingering pops into Wednesday with a decent upper shortwave
moving across, as it will depend on how fast front moves
through and how quickly the ridging behind it builds. Expect a
mainly dry and warm Thursday as ridging and subsidence from the
north prevails before the next system approaches the area at the
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are currently active
across the forecast area. The cold front, and an attending line
of thunderstorms, is currently approaching I95. The front and
storms should be moving across or clearing KLBT and KFLO around
0z, and is forecasted to reach the coast by 2z. Have included a
TEMPO group at coastal sites through 2z to account for higher
winds and lower vsbys within storms. After the front moves
offshore, clear skies for tonight and into tomorrow. Winds
generally out of the NNW tonight around 5-10 kts, becoming
westerly towards end of TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Widespread VFR through Monday. Flight
restrictions may occur Monday night into Tuesday with the next
weather system moving in. Improving conditions into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday... Breezy this afternoon into this evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. The fetch will keep winds
below SCA thresholds and seas 3-4 feet. Thunderstorms ahead of
the front could be strong or severe this evening as a large line
of storm emerges offshore. Winds in excess of 30 knots are
expected with these storms and a few stronger storms could
produce large hail and strong wind gusts. High pressure will
build behind the exiting line of storms and the cold front
overnight. A brief surge of northerly winds to around 15-20
knots will quickly abate by tomorrow morning.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Benign marine conditions,
with offshore flow and seas around 2 feet Sunday. Surface high
pressure shifts offshore Monday with winds turning southerly by
Monday afternoon. Winds, seas, and rain chances pick up on
Tuesday as a warm front lifts north across the area. May see SCA
conditions Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, combination of
6 foot seas from building S wind wave and elevated wind gusts.
A weak cold front is forecasted to move across the waters
sometime on Wednesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...VAO/21