Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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752 FXUS64 KJAN 092019 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 319 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Through Friday: ...Severe Weather Expected Tonight... Mid afternoon surface analysis had a cold front nearly along a Tupelo to Greenville Mississippi line. South of the cold front temperatures have reach 90F with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. These conditions were resulting in heat index values in the lower 100s and many sites will peak near 105F. These conditions were also resulting in surface based CAPE values in excess of 5000l/kg. Local radars were still quiet in our CWA thanks in part to the capping noted on the 12Z Thu JAN sounding but regional satellite imagery and radars showed deep convection developing over the Red River valley with a disturbance noted over central Texas that is expected to help develop the convection into an mcs that will sweep east across our region this evening and several hours after midnight. There is a low chance that an isolated storm or two may develop and become strong to severe this afternoon ahead of the main event but overall, very little has changed from the previous thinking. An Enhanced Risk(3 out of 5) of severe storms remains outlooked for our CWA along and south of Highway 82. Damaging wind gusts of 80mph will be the main threat but hail up to the size of golf balls will also be possible. In addition tornadoes cannot be ruled out and locally heavy rainfall of one to two inches in a short amount of time will be possible. Model consensus suggests that the mcs will be moving into our western most zones during the early evening and exiting our eastern most zones by 3AM. Although the severe threat will end by 3AM, the cold front will be moving through our CWA and some anafrontal rainfall will prolong rain chances into Friday morning. As the cold front continues shifting southeast of our CWA, much drier and cooler air moving into the region in its wake will bring an end to the rain before noon. Afternoon highs will be cooler and held into the 70s across our north with low to mid 80s across our south. /22/ Friday night through late next week: Our area will continue to be influenced by an active perturbed pattern, which will keep rain and storm chances in the forecast. We start off quiet this weekend in the wake of the Thursday night system as flow turns northwesterly. Conditions will turn quite pleasant this weekend as dewpoints only remain in the 50s. This won`t last long however as our next disturbance quickly advances. Unlike the previous disturbance, the positive tilt and dry airmass will likely not give enough time to recover a moist airmass, thus a more suppressed system. That said, the parameters may be supportive of isolated strong to severe storms, especially given moderate to strong deep shear, so a severe graphic may eventually be needed down the road if trends persist. There could also be some heavy rain associated with this system, especially given PWAT anomaly as moisture attempts to recover. However, northern extent is uncertain at this time. Several weak disturbances will follow for mid next week with persistent rain and storm chances. Thursday/Friday disturbance appears to potentially be more potent with a richer airmass and stronger shear. However, the positive tilt may tend to suppress this system as well, giving a more southern solution. Expect adjustments to the forecast as more details become available./SAS/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions were observed along the HWY 82 corridor Taf sites at 1730Z while MVFR cigs were still being observed central and south. Cigs will slowly improve this aftn and an isold TSRA wl be psbl but after 01Z, numerous TSRA are expected to move from west to east across the cntrl and southern portions of the area. The TSRA may bring gusts in excess of 50kts and hail in addition to the typical lower flying conditions. Conditions wl begin to improve after 06Z and VFR conditions are expected by 13Z and VFR conditions wl prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 66 80 57 79 / 80 10 0 0 Meridian 65 84 55 81 / 80 20 0 0 Vicksburg 66 82 59 81 / 80 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 70 87 60 83 / 70 40 0 0 Natchez 66 83 60 81 / 80 10 0 0 Greenville 66 79 59 81 / 40 0 0 0 Greenwood 64 79 57 80 / 50 10 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/SAS20/22