Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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135 FXUS63 KLBF 310042 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 742 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rainfall may develop in a few areas of swrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible. - Severe weather is possible Friday, Saturday and Sunday but the chances Friday are mainly across far swrn Nebraska and the srn Panhandle. The chances Sunday are across far ncntl Nebraska. Saturday will be the most likely day for severe storms, potentially affecting a good portion of wrn Nebraska from about 4 pm CDT onward. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Winds aloft are very weak this afternoon, 10-20kts at h500-300mb. Meanwhile, moisture is pooling ahead of a cold front across ncntl/swrn Nebraska leading to PWAT above 1 inch. The CAMs are signaling asynoptic southwest storm development with storms firing across ncntl Nebraska this afternoon and building, or developing southwestward into swrn Neb this evening. The southward moving cold front will be close behind marking an end to sfc based storm development. In a nutshell, locally heavy rainfall is possible in spots. The NANnest is showing a 4-inch total near Sargent by 00z with several 3 inch totals further south, all localized, by 06z tonight. Given the 4.3 inch total reported in Sherman county this morning by WFO GID, discrete southwestward developing storms producing locally heavy rainfall would appear to be operative storm mode late this afternoon and tonight. A check on BUFkit shows a plume of dry air in the midlevels moving in from the west. This could lead to the demise of a thunderstorm and cause damaging wind gusts at the same time. Such was the cause near KVTN last night with a recorded gust to 79 mph. The POP forecast tonight leans toward the aggressive CAMs but limits POPs to 50 percent. The aforementioned cold front will be located across nrn KS Friday morning and then lift north as a warm front Friday and Friday night. Most model solutions offer little opportunity for rain during this time but the RAP and HRRR sense upper level support moving through the Rockies and moisture at the lower levels. The result is at a minimum, periods of drizzle or light across wrn Nebraska Friday into early Saturday morning with the potential for showers and thunderstorms associated with the upper level support. SPC suggested severe weather concerns late Friday for an upscale thunderstorm complex emanating off the Colorado Front Range and the Cheyenne Divide. The slight severe weather risk brushes a small portion of southwest Nebraska. Given the wide range of model solutions Friday and Friday night, the POP forecast leans on SPC and WPC for guidance. POPs are less than 40 percent. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Additional opportunities for severe weather are Saturday and Sunday. Forecast solutions, in terms of storm coverage Saturday, range from the potential for upscale growth in the NAMnest to a more singular severe storm complex in the NAM12 to nearly nothing in the ECM. The ECM shows the storms remaining mostly in Colorado. Western Nebraska will be in the warm sector so it is likely the model differences are a result of differences in the location of the low level focus and upper level support shown in the models. Later forecast will resolve this. As it stands now, the NAM shows 40-50kt h500-300mb winds pushing into wrn Nebraska Saturday afternoon, effective shear 40 to 60kts and 21z MLCAPE around 2500J/KG. This would certainly support severe storm development with swrn Nebraska and the srn Panhandle the favored location. The situation Sunday becomes more uncertain as the models focus convection as far north as ND and MN in the NAM to cntl Nebraska in the ECM. Regardless, winds aloft will be strong, 30-40kts at h500- 300, effective shear is 40-50kts and MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG, according to the NAM. This would support an isolated severe storm potential; the BRN is 35 or less. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 737 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 A few thunderstorms will be scattered about the region tonight, but widespread precipitation is not expected. Winds will generally be from thr east-northeast at 5-15kt through Friday. Some threat for lower MVFR ceilings to develop across portions of southwest Nebraska late tonight and linger through Friday morning. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Taylor