918
FXUS62 KMHX 130234
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1034 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak backdoor cold front quickly tracks across the region this
evening while high pressure builds overhead tonight and remains
in control thru Monday. Then, a low pressure system will bring
unsettled weather across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High
pressure builds in on Thursday before another low pressure
system impacts us late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 1000 pm Sunday...High pressure has started building in
behind the back door cold front which is now to our south. we
have decoupled quite nicely to start the night, and temps are
dropping as a result. Still expecting upper 40s inland, low to
mid 50s for beaches tonight. Dewpoints are much higher than what
models have been suggesting this evening, and tried to account
for that by increasing dewpoints through the night. Patchy fog
is still possible tonight west of hwy 17 early Monday morning,
but should not be too impactful with limited low level moisture.
The remainder of the forecast remains on track.


Previous Discussion...As of 305 PM Sun...Not much change in the
forecast as upper level trough remains over the Mid-Atlantic
this afternoon with ridging beginning to push in from the west
out ahead of yet another trough in the Plains. Widespread temps
in the 70s inland and upper 60s to mid 70s across the OBX are
currently noted. Highs for today will likely be reached in the
next hour or so while blustery west to northwesterly winds
continue across ENC. A few wind gusts up around 20-25 mph remain
possible this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows fairly
widespread diurnal cumulus which should quickly dissipate around
sunset allowing for clear skies tonight. Backdoor cold front
noted by a wind shift to the north-northeast as well as on
satellite is currently making its way south across the NOBX this
afternoon as well. This backdoor cold front should eventually
stall and dissipate as it makes its way across the area this
evening resulting in winds becoming light an variable after
sunset.

Tonight, deep upper ridging will expand over much of the
southeastern CONUS eventually becoming centered over the
Southeast by Monday morning as Mid-Atlantic trough pushes
further offshore and troughing in the Southern Plains slowly
pushes E`wards. High pressure then settles overhead. With light
and variable winds and mo clear skies forecast the table is set
for a great radiational cooling night tonight with the latest
forecasted low temps nudged down another degree or two below
the lowest guidance. As such have widespread lows in the upper
40s to low 50s inland with low to mid 50s found along the coast
and OBX. Patchy radiation fog is possible to start the morning
work commute, but widespread visibility issues are not
anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 700 pm Sunday...No major changes with this update.

Previous Discussion...As of 305 PM Sun... High pressure over
the Mid- Atlantic becomes centered off the coast by Mon
afternoon keeping things dry across ENC through the day.
However, upper level trough and associated surface low in the
Plains will continue to slide E`wards as well approaching the
Carolinas from the west. While we don`t expect any precip,
increasing high clouds especially Mon afternoon will be noted as
moisture gradually begins to stream into the region out ahead
of the approaching low. Temps will be seasonable with highs in
the upper 70s/lower 80s. Dew points will be much below normal
however in the low to mid 50s making for very comfortable
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...Unsettled weather will impact ENC on
Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure tracks across the Southeast
and Mid- Atlantic. High pressure builds in Thursday night into
Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area late
in the week.

Monday night...Mostly cloudy skies and increasing precip
chances are forecast late Mon night out ahead of an approaching
low pressure system that will be tracking across the Southeast.
Temps get down into the 60s across the area Mon night given the
widespread cloudcover and weak southerly flow.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Vertically stacked low
pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and
then push across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before pushing
off the coast Wednesday night. Precip chances increase through
the day Tuesday and peak Tuesday night as upper level diffluence
and southern stream moisture increases across the area with
PWATs peaking around 1.75". Additional showers will push across
the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc
cold front pushes across the area. Could see a few elevated
thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night but clouds and precip
will limit instability and any severe potential appears minimal.
However, Wednesday will have a better chance for stronger
storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and
greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear.
Most of the area will likely see a soaking rain with precip
amounts around 1-1.5" through the period with coastal sections
potentially approaching 2". Temps will continue to be
seasonable with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 Tuesday and
low to mid 80s on Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday...Disparity continues among the models
with how the mid week system transitions as it moves offshore
late Wednesday with some solutions opening the upper low into a
wave with the system progressively moving east into the western
Atlantic allowing for upper ridging to build aloft bringing a
dry forecast. However, the 00z operational ECMWF and to some
extent the CMC now maintain a closed low with a slower track
across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday keeping cyclonic flow over
the area which will bring greater cloud cover with a few showers
persisting across the area. Have now introduced slight chance
PoPs and the CMC is trending toward the ECMWF. Models are in
better agreement with another southern stream system quickly
moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance
differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the
Southeast and off the coast. But despite the differences, most
guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across
much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Monday/...
As of 700 PM Sunday...Pred VFR conditions continue to persist
across ENC this evening as Cu field dissipates. Tonight should
be mainly VFR, but a threat of patchy radiational fog west of
hwy 17 exists with clear skies and calm winds. To account for
the low radiational fog chances, kept TAFs at 6SM vis for early
morning Monday. Minimal impacts to operations are expected, but
a low chance (10-20%) of MVFR fog exists. By Mon winds become
southerly but remain light while cloud cover slowly increases
from SW to NE Mon morning.

LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...Pred VFR conditions expected through Monday
as high pressure builds across the region. A low pressure
system will impact the area Tuesday through Wednesday with
deteriorating conditions expected Tuesday with periods of sub-
VFR continuing into Wednesday. Sub-VFR conditions possible
Wednesday night with plenty of low level moisture in place. Pred
VFR returns Thursday but could see isolated showers bringing
brief sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Monday/...
As of 700 pm Sunday...No major changes with this update. Back
door cold front has passed Ocracoke, spanning NE to Tyrrell
County.

As of 305 PM Sun...Rather benign boating conditions will
persist through the period as weak low pressure to the north
quickly exits the region while its associated cold front
continues to dive south and eventually dissipate over the area.
High pressure ridging quickly builds over the region tonight
before ridging pushes offshore on Monday.

Latest observations show frontal boundary finally pushing
through our northern waters this afternoon with widespread
10-15 kt N-NE`rly winds with gusts up to 20-25 kts behind this
frontal passage while south of the front, winds remain SW`rly at
5-10 kts. This front will continue S`wards shifting winds to a
NE to E direction and while winds will briefly gust behind the
front, they will quickly ease this evening down to 5-10 kts and
remain light into Mon morning. Light winds gradually veer
through the day on Mon to an E-SE direction and increase
slightly to 5-15 kts as high pressure ridging pushes offshore
and another low pressure system begins to approach from the
west. Seas generally remain around 2-4 ft across our coastal
waters with a few 5 footers found along the Gulf Stream waters.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 415 AM Sunday...A low pressure system will impact the
waters Tuesday into Wednesday. Low pressure may linger near the
coast into Thursday.

Winds veer to southerly Monday night and increase Tuesday ahead
of the low pressure system and expect a period of Small Craft
Advisory conditions to develop and continue into Wednesday. We
may see a brief period of Gale Force winds across portions of
the waters Tuesday evening. Seas will build Tuesday and peak
around 7-10 ft Tuesday night, then will gradually subside
Wednesday and Wednesday night. A cold front will push across the
waters with winds becoming NW to N around 10-15 kt and seas
around 3 to 5 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ
SHORT TERM...RCF/RJ
LONG TERM...SK/RCF
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RCF/RJ