Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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693 FXUS64 KOUN 132345 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 645 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 With winds going light and variable tonight under clearing skies, could see some radiational fog develop across southeast Oklahoma. As a result, added patchy fog into the wx grids during the first half of Tuesday morning across southeast Oklahoma. NAM fairly aggressive with the fog becoming more dense (visibilities reduced below 1/4 mile) so may need to amend if necessary. No other chances were made to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 A mid/upper-level low in Kansas will continue to slowly move eastward toward the Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop on the trailing wind shift across east central into southeast Oklahoma. A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will also occur across across north central into central Oklahoma in association with the upper-level low itself. The convection should exit by early evening. For Tuesday, mid-level heights will rise as the mid/upper-level low moves toward the Midwest. Dry and warmer conditions are expected with abundant sunshine. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 By Wednesday, a quasi-stationary boundary is forecast to be located somewhere across northern Oklahoma as a shortwave trough lifts into the Plains. The location of this boundary may depend on earlier convection in Kansas (i.e., reinforced by outflow). Low- level moisture pooling and low-level coverage along this boundary appears sufficient for convective initiation for showers and thunderstorms. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. On Thursday, a more substantial shortwave through will approach the Southern Plains. If there is sufficient recovery Thursday afternoon from the previous night`s convection (and depending on the location of the effective cold front), strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible again on Thursday. In addition to severe weather, heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding will be another potential hazard (especially if heavy rainfall occurs on Wednesday). The trough will be slow to exit with at least a low chance of rain continuing into Friday. By the weekend, a ~595 dam mid-level ridge is progged to develop across Mexico with the Southern Plains on the northern periphery of the ridge. Temperatures should gradually rise with mid 80s to mid 90s deg F likely as the low-level thermal ridge expands to the north and east. There will also be a continued low chance of showers and thunderstorms with the area near the periphery of the stronger mid-level flow. Mahale && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 There are a few scattered showers that will persist over the next hour or two, mainly in the KDUA and KPNC areas. But these should dissipate early this evening with decreasing clouds. Winds will be light and somewhat variable although primarily from the northwest overnight. The western sites will shift to southerly early Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 56 80 59 87 / 10 0 0 20 Hobart OK 53 84 60 89 / 0 0 10 30 Wichita Falls TX 56 84 61 90 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 49 84 57 88 / 0 0 10 30 Ponca City OK 54 79 56 84 / 20 0 10 30 Durant OK 59 82 59 88 / 20 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...26