698
FXUS61 KRNK 180531
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
131 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another storm system will cross the area today through late
Sunday. This system will bring widespread rain to the area.
Monday and Tuesday look drier. High temperatures generally look
to be in the 60s and 70s through the weekend, with a slight
warming trend beginning Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Heavy rain potential continues through the overnight hours.

Very weak stationary boundary continues to remain across the
area this evening and will continue to be the focus for heavy
rainfall. Have already had a few instances of localized 2 inch
rainfall amounts. CAMs still indicating an uptick in activity
after 8PM as lift increases over the area and the flooding
threat may increase for several hours through early Saturday
morning. Precipitable Water values continue to increase as well,
leading to increased potential for very efficient rain
producing storms.



As of 125 PM EDT Friday...

A stalled boundary remains draped across the region, currently
situated in a northwest to southeast fashion across the CWA.
Roughly from Hot Springs, VA to Lynchburg, VA and South Boston,
VA. Weak east/northeast flow to the east of this boundary has
remained rather stable. However, some better destabilization has
occured west of the boundary and although heating has been
limited due to ample cloud cover, still some modest SBCAPE of
around 1000 J/kg or less. This is evident by some isolated
convection already occuring in and around the Grayson Highlands
and NW North Carolina.

Should see coverage of rain and storms continue to increase
through this evening and overnight hours as better lift moves
across the region. Rainfall intensity is also expected to
increase as Precipitable Water values will be nearing 1.5".
Slow moving storms anchored across the stalled boundary will be
concern through the overnight hours where weak convergence could
lead to nearly stalled storms across the Southern Shenandoah
Valley. No plans to extend the Flood Watch to include any other
counties at the moment.

Rain potentially continues through tomorrow morning with a lull
in the activity nearing sunrise. Widespread cloud cover will
persist through tomorrow, but better lift with an approaching
upper wave will likely produce another round of rain and
thunderstorms by early afternoon. Heavy rainfall will be the
main threat again, leading to the potential for localized
flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1. Continued precip chances through Sunday then drier into the work
week.

The upper low and enhanced moisture field across the Southeast to
Mid-Atlantic will continue to allow for scattered shower and
thunderstorm development through Sunday, then upper ridging
amplifies to the west into the Ohio Valley. This wins over as it
pushes the low and moisture axis east of the CWA by Sunday night and
the prevailing drier subsident airmass is progged to persist
into the first half of the work week.

Max temps look to be a bit below climo norms Sunday, then gradually
warm Monday and Tuesday due to the dry ridge.

Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1. Shower and storm chances return.

As the upper ridge of high pressure is looking to dampen and shift
eastward, a broad trough may push an elongated front across the area
Wednesday into Thursday and increase scattered convection potential.
There are discrepancies in the guidance with progression of this
feature and if there is another ridge or shortwave trough on its
heels for Friday. Have kept general chance pops for much of the
period. Max temps should mainly be above normal. Thursday temps
have greater uncertainty due to the question of the front timing.

Forecast confidence is medium.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Saturday...

Early this morning all terminals were at IFR to MVFR conditions
due to low cigs. All terminals are expected to drop to IFR
before dawn Saturday with little to no improvement on Saturday
with KBLF having the best chance to improve to MVFR conditions
by late Saturday morning.

Another round of rain and thunderstorms will be possible
Saturday afternoon, with highest confidence of storms being from
BCB to ROA and points south. If cigs improve to MVFR Saturday,
they quickly will drop to IFR at all sites by Saturday night.
While winds will generally be less than 10 knots, localized
strong wind gusts will be possible under and near storms
Saturday early afternoon into evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Showers and thunderstorms will slowly wane Saturday night, but
scattered storms re-develop, especially in the mountains on
Sunday. MVFR/IFR clouds and showers remain in the area for
Sunday and Sunday night.

Some improvements by Monday as the slow moving storm system
begins to depart east. Tuesday is the most likely day to be VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ019-020-023-
     024-034-035-044>047-058-059.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...PH