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000
FXUS61 KRNK 201955
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
355 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool north to northwesterly wind can be expected through
Monday.  An area of low pressure developing over Texas
is expected to move east, and pass south of our region Sunday.
This wet weather system will bring clouds back across our
region with an opportunity for rain as far north as the
North Carolina, Virginia border. The low will move off the
coast Sunday night, skies clearing.  Dry weather
is expected Monday and Tuesday.  Temperatures the next few
days will be cooler than normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Increasing clouds tonight.

2) Cloudy Sunday with rain possible along and south of the North
Carolina, Virginia border.

3) Temperatures cooler than normal.

In general expecting fair weather through tonight...temperatures
cooling quickly after sunset. Lows tonight should dip into the
upper 30s in the mountains and into the lower to mid 40s across
the piedmont...clear skies early promoting good radiational
cooling conditions...dewpoints now low enough to no longer
support overnight warmth.

Clouds will increase during the overnight in response to low
pressure developing over the southern States and moving
northeast along remnant cold front to our south Sunday. This
will result in thickening cloud cover over our region with rain
spreading northeast through the southern Appalachians and
reaching the VA/NC border mid-morning Sunday. Models keep the
deepest moisture suppressed to our south but do think we see
some form or light rain as far north as Highway 58 albeit
light.

Clouds on Sunday will maintain the cool temperatures...highs
struggling to get any warmer than the 50s.

&&


.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:
1) Clearing Sunday night with patchy frost.

2) Dry Monday

Sunday night, low pressure to our south will pass off the
southeast Atlantic Coast. Skies will begin to clear with some
lingering cloudiness over the Carolinas where it rains Sunday.
Where the skies do clear, watch for patchy frost, especially in
the mountains where low temperatures are forecast in the lower
30s. Some of the mountain valleys (such as Burkes Garden) may
dip into the upper 20s. The growing season has not officially
started in the mountains, but just be aware that frost is
possible in these areas Sunday night.

After a cold start Monday morning, temperatures should rebound
into the 55-65 degree range for Monday afternoon...High
pressure providing fair weather to start the work week. Another
cool night is expected Monday night with patchy frost a
possibility again in the mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

 - Light rain chances Wednesday and again on Friday

High pressure will give way to a cold front approaching from the
west Tuesday. Low levels will remain dry and with zonal flow loft,
the atmosphere will saturate from the top-down. Thin cirrus will not
stop the area from warming into the 60s across the mountains to low
to mid 70s east of the Blue Ridge.

Prefrontal showers will move across the mountains early Wednesday
morning, then over the foothills and piedmont from mid morning into
early afternoon. Despite having southwest flow over the area
Wednesday, high pressure blocking Gulf moisture will limit rainfall
amounts to a couple of hundredths of an inch. The cold front will
move across the area during the day, exiting the piedmont by the
evening commute. Temperatures will vary from the 50s along western
slopes to mid 70s in the piedmont.

Following the frontal passage, colder than normal temperatures
expected Thursday with highs from the upper 50s to upper 60s. The
center of the surface ridge will move off the coast Friday. A warm
front will then move over the western edge of the ridge Friday
afternoon, increase isentropic lift and along with overrunning
moisture will bring a chance for rain to the area into Friday night.
At this time, models are showing a progressive warm front with the
ridge moving farther out to sea. Therefore, forecast temperatures
for Saturday are in the 70s. However, rain may help develop an
insitu wedge east of the Blue Ridge. This weak and shallow wedge
could break in the afternoon, sending temperatures as forecasted. If
this wedge is stronger and deeper, highs Saturday may only be in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour valid
TAFs.

Winds subside after sunset with no restrictions to ceilings/vsbys.
Mid/upper level clouds will increase late tonight and will stick
around through the day Sunday. Light rain is possible as far
north as the VA/NC border between 12Z-21Z Sunday.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

An area of low pressure will pass south of the region Sunday,
then off the coast Sunday night.   Drier air should return by
Monday as high pressure builds eastward across the Mid Atlantic
to provide good flying weather through Tuesday. Another cold
front will arrive during Tuesday night into Wednesday to bring
the next potential for MVFR ceilings and rain showers in the
mountains. Thursday looks dry supporting VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM