Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 051201
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
601 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS PLACE WITH PERSISTENT BUT GENERALLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WITH MOVEMENT TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY WITH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TODAY...MAINLY WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES AND INITIALLY FAVORING
HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOCAL
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z-06Z WITH SOME
LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THEREAFTER.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY.
THE RESULT AGAIN WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCCASION...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ROCKIES AND DRAG
DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO STARTING ON SUNDAY INTO
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE
OR TWO BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN AND
PERHAPS CENTRAL AREAS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THIS AREA ONCE IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AFOOT ACROSS THE FCST AREA...BUT MAINLY WE
HAVE ONLY SEEM SOME DRIBBLES OF LIGHT TO BRFLY MODERATE RAIN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NW HALF OF NM. GIVEN ALL THE MID AND HIGH LVL
MOISTURE BEING PULLED FROM GOOD OLD KEVIN OFF THE BAJA COAST...WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PRETTY EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
AREA...THOUGH IT COULD GET A FEW MORE HOLES PUNCHED IN IT THIS AFTN
AS COMPARED TO FRI. STILL IT LOOKS LIKE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN
BE SUPPRESSED TO SOME DEGREE...SO KEPT THE NUMEROUS TAG ASSIGNED
ONLY TO SHOWERS AND NOT STORMS...KEEPING THE LATTER EITHER SCT OR
ISOLD. WITH STORM INTENSITY AND THUS OVERALL RAINFALL RATES LOWER
THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE THE CASE IF MORE SUN BROKE THROUGH...AGAIN
TODAY FELT THAT NO FLASH FLOOD HIGHLIGHTS WERE WARRANTED. STILL
WITH ANY HEAVY RAINERS THAT MAY DEVELOP...TRAINING POTENTIAL WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT POPS ADJUSTMENTS
MADE WAS TO THE NW THIRD OR SO OF THE FCST AREA FOR SUN...
INCREASING THEM THERE SOMEWHAT...MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN. JUST A
MODEST NOD TOWARD THE GFS MODEL WHICH SEEMS TOO WET THERE
CERTAINLY...BUT GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
TO FLOW ALOFT FELT THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE DRYING THINGS OUT A
LITTLE TOO MUCH.

DRYING TREND STILL SEEMS PRETTY MUCH THE RIGHT WAY TO GO FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH BULGING BACK WESTWARD TO OUR SOUTH FORCING A
MORE WESTERLY AND THUS DRIER FLOW. AFTN TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND
SOME...ACTUALLY STARTING AS SOON AS SUN...BUT NOT QUITE TO THE
LVLS WE SAW AT THE START OF THE WEEK. BACK DOOR FRONT STILL
SHOWING SOME MODELS INDICATED PROGRESSION VARIABILITY FROM RUN TO
RUN...SO THAT FACTOR REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. GFS THOUGH PUTS
UP SOME FAIRLY HEFTY RAIN COVERAGE AND QPF NUMBERS VICINITY OF
NEXT WEEKEND.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STEADY STREAM OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOISTURE ENHANCED BY THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL SHIFT DURING THE WEEK...WITH A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK AND A SHIFT TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES LATE IN THE
WEEK. VENTILATION TO BE MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT...WITH PERIODS OF
POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION MAINLY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN STATE WITH
THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA PENISULA WITH DRIER AIR
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WESTERN ARIZONA. LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTED
OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER WESTERN ZONES...AND THIS AREA WILL BE FAVORED
AGAIN TODAY THOUGH CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO BE STRONGEST
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS DRIER
AIR AT THE MID LEVELS WORKS OVER WESTERN ZONES. TEMPS INCREASE
AREAWIDE AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WORK WEEK AS A
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN
ON MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED DOWN TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH
THE GILA AREA MOST FAVORED. A WIND SHIFT INTO THE EAST ON TUESDAY
USHERS IN SOME COOLER AIR ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN TO HE NORTHEAST. A STRONGER FRONT
IS FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...CURRENTLY FRIDAY...WHEN EAST
WINDS WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.

VENTILATION TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY...WITH REDUCED VALUES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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