Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 111315 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
715 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

Issued at 711 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

Cancelled the winter weather headlines a little early this morning
as the majority of the moderate snow has exited to the northeast.
Another wave of light snow is possible this morning, but little
additional accumulation is expected. Have added in some pops
farther west this morning along the Missouri River, as well.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

Light to moderate snow continues to push east across the eastern
CWA, with the back edge of the heavier snowfall about to move into
the James Valley. Will take a closer look at headlines soon, but it
would appear the Winter Weather Advisory for areas west of the James
River may be allowed to expire prior to 12Z. Will watch radar trends
for areas further east where a Winter Weather Advisory and Winter
Storm Warning remain. These may be able to be cancelled early as
well as snow has really diminished in intensity over the warning
area. Light to moderate snow still coming down at a good clip mainly
along and north of Hwy 12. Also watching the vort off to the
northwest associated with compact shortwave energy. Area of stratus
and even some light snow and flurries with this. All this activity
is moving southeast and may have to extend POPs further back to the
west again for a longer duration to account for this activity.
Models not really picking up on this feature right now, or they
either slide the vort further east as opposed to southeast. So, will
have to see how this pans out over the next couple hours, but it
will only amount to possibly adding some POPs for light snow or
flurries back over north central SD for a while longer this morning.

After this system departs today, surface high pressure builds over
the region and should be setting the stage for a rather cold night
as winds go light and skies try to clear out. Sky cover is the big
question tonight, and if trends look clear, then we`re looking at
some very cold temps in the single digits below and teens below zero
thanks to the fresh snow cover. By sunrise though, we will be seeing
an increase in mid and high level clouds in advance of the next wave
of energy.

On Monday, next cold front will be moving through the region and
have continued the trend of previous forecasts by increasing wind
speeds above that of SuperBlend for Monday afternoon. Models still
consistent on bringing an area of light snow across the area too on
Monday, so have increased POPs a bit, and they may need to be
increased even more. Accumulations look to stay rather light.

Surface high pressure then slides into the area Monday night and
eventually pushes south of the area by Tuesday. This will keep very
cold temperatures over the region. Will need to keep an eye on wind
chills Monday night as we could be talking about an advisory by
then. Actual air temperatures in the single digits and teens below
zero will combine with a 5 to 15 mph west wind. Current apparent T
grids show a large area of 25 below to 30 below wind chills over the
northern CWA for Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

The start of the extended will be very cold and dry with arctic high
pressure settled in at the surface and an upper trough digging into
the Dakotas. As the trough departs and a weak upper ridge builds in
on Thursday, highs will still only climb into the single digits
north to teens south.

The best chance for any precip will be at the end of the work week.
An area of low pressure will move into the central Plains late
Thursday night and Friday bringing snow and gusty winds. There is
still some uncertainty regarding the northern extent of any precip
as models have been inconsistent in low placement and another dry
arctic airmass will intrude from the northwest. Coldest temps will
occur behind the low in the new arctic high. Forecast lows Saturday
night/Sunday morning fall into the negative teens.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

An area of light snow continues to move off to the east this
morning and should exit the taf sites by 15z. IFR vsby in a band
of heavier snow is still affecting KATY but should improve by 13z.
A mix of MVFR/low VFR cigs will continue through the morning and
improve to VFR this afternoon at all sites.




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