Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 281418 AAA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
618 AM AKDT Tue Mar 28 2017

SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave trough over mainland Alaska will retrograde to the
West Coast of Alaska by 4pm Thu and then remain there through the
weekend. Several short waves will move north over Interior Alaska
over the next several days bringing snow with each one. Southerly
chinook flow over the Alaska Range will develop Thu and continue
into the weekend.

A short wave trough over the Chukchi Sea will move south over the
Bering Strait by 4pm Tue...and to the Yukon Delta by 4am Wed.
Expect north winds gusting to 25 mph to accompany this
trough...but little in the way of clouds or weather.

A second short wave trough north of the Russian coast will move
to the southern Chukchi Sea by 4pm Wed...over western Norton Sound
by 4am Thu...then continue south. Expect north winds gusting to
25 mph again with this trough.

A third short wave trough just south of the Alaska Range will
move north to Tanana to Eagle by 4pm Tue...to Ambler to Arctic
Village by 4am Wed...and north of the Arctic coast Wed afternoon.
Expect 1-2 inches of snow with this trough except much lighter
amounts in the SE Interior and over the North Slope due to the
downslope drying.

A fourth and much stronger short wave trough in the Gulf of Alaska
will move to the Gulf of Alaska Coast by 4pm Wed...to Galena to
Northway by 4am Thu...and to Ambler to Old Crow by 4pm Thu. Expect
several inches of snow with this feature. Expect a moderate
chinook wind event over the Alaska Range following this trough
which will become stronger Fri.

Surface...
Expect surface temperatures over the Interior to rise a few
degrees to near normal by Wed...with a rapid warm up to well above
normal Thu into the weekend under the southerly chinook flow. The
West Coast and Arctic Coast will see temperatures remaining below
normal through Thu with a warm up to above normal by the weekend.

An occluded front that has pushed just above the surface from
Denali to Coldfoot will weaken through tonight as the third short
wave moves north. The front will strengthen again Wed night as the
fourth short wave moves north. Snow now falling along this front
will taper off tonight as the front weakens then pick up again Wed
as the front regains strength. Expect 2-4 inches of snow along
this feature. Northeast winds gusting to 40 mph and blowing snow
along this front will taper off this afternoon as the front
weakens.

A ridge of high pressure north of the Arctic Coast will move north
tonight.

A low pressure trough over the eastern North Slope of Alaska will
move to Deadhorse to Demarcation Point by 3pm Tue...and then move
north of the Coast Wed. East winds and stratus/fog along the coast
now will move north of the coast tonight with the winds turning
southwest.

DISCUSSION...
Models similar through 4pm Thu. After that time there is general
agreement on the long wave features but differences in timing and
strength of short wave features. Will use the GFS through 4pm Thu
and then it looks like and ensemble solution will work best
through the weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB MAR 17



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