Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 241455
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
655 AM AKDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
Strong zonal flow across Northern Alaska will weaken tonight and
Tue as a short wave drops south along the West Coast of Alaska
tonight through Tue night. A ridge will build over northeast
Alaska later this week bring a return to warm and dry weather over
the Interior.

Surface...
A 989 mb 80 nm northwest of Barrow will move to 100 nm north of
Barter Island as a 996 mb low by 4pm Mon and then continue moving
east and weakening. Strong west winds around this low are causing
high surf along must of West Coast and Arctic Coast of Alaska. The
winds will decrease this morning along the West Coast, be this
evening along the Western Arctic Coast, and by Tue am along the
Eastern Arctic Coast.

A cold front stretching from this low to Deadhorse to Bethel will
move rapidly east to Eagle to Dot Lake to Talkeetna by 4pm
Mon, and to Northway to Mentasta Pass by 4am Tue. There is a broad
area of rain along and east of this front, and expect another 0.25
inch of rain from this today. Rain will taper off to scattered
showers west of the front with temperatures cooling. There are
southwest winds 15-25kt along and ahead of the front with
stronger wind gusts closer to the low center over zones 218 206
203 and 204. Winds will drop off west of the front.

A second low south of Wrangel Island will move to the southern
Chukchi Sea as a 1008 mb low by 4am Tue, and to near Nome as a
1010 mb low by 4pm Tue. This will bring move rain to the West
Coast of Alaska late tonight and Tue.

There is a potential for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the Interior Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well on most fields and show similar solutions
through Wed. One exception is that the low near Barrow is a bit
deeper than models indicated and thus we are forecasting winds a
few knots stronger than models indicate over the North Slope today
and tonight.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH should remain above 30%. Strong winds across the Interior will
decrease this afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Small stream flood advisories continue today over zones 208 217
210 and 211 due to the 1-2 inches of rain yesterday that followed
rain the previous several days.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ218.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ207-AKZ209-
AKZ211-AKZ212.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB JUL 17



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