Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 242139
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
139 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Changes are underway across Central and Eastern
Interior today as parts of this area benefits from a reprieve in
the wet, showery weather for a few days. The exception will be the
Alaska Range and the Southeast Interior where showery, wet
conditions will persist. Stratus and fog continue to plagued the
North Slope and Arctic Coast while a decrease in shower activity
is expected from the Seward Peninsula south through tonight. The
24/12Z deterministic models are in good agreement through the
middle of the middle of the upcoming week, then some spread among
model solutions late in the week as an upper level trough drops
south from the Arctic.

A vertically stacked low over the Kuskokwim Valley this morning
will begin to move southwest towards Bristol Bay and the AK
Peninsula this evening as a weak upper ridge builds northwest and
over the Central and Eastern Interior with westerly flow
developing across the North Slope and Arctic Coast tonight and
persisting through early Wednesday. Another upper low near Banks
Island will swing south and over MacKenzie Bay by Monday evening.
By mid week, an upper trough and associated low center will dig
south and over the Northwest and West Coast and then east over the
Interior and Eastern Brooks Range. The 24/12z GFS develops a
secondary upper low over Point Lay and Point Lisburne Wednesday
Evening that will swing northeast and weaken over the Western
Brooks Range and Western Arctic Coast. This is different than the
24/12z ECWMF, which brings a shortwave across the Chukchi Sea and
over Point Lay and Point Lisburne.

A 1021 mb surface high centered 500 miles north of Prudhoe Bay
will continue to trek south and east towards the Canadian Arctic
Archipelago and be 180 miles west of Banks Island by Monday
evening. A broad surface trough of low pressure extends from
the Southwest Interior to near Northway and eastward into Western
Canada will persist through early Monday then expand northward to
the Brooks Range by Monday afternoon.

Central and Eastern Interior...Currently, Pedro Dome radar imagery
is showing the development of showers over the last couple of
hours south of Fairbanks that are slowly moving north. Am
expecting more showers to develop, but remain isolated in nature
and south and east of Fairbanks this evening. May see a few
thunderstorms this evening from Lake Minchumina to Fairbanks and
Eagle south. For tomorrow, chances for thunderstorms will move
north to include Tanana to Central and south. Elsewhere across
the area, skies will remain mostly clear and sunny over the
northern interior. Over the Alaska Range, ongoing widespread
showers will continue tonight and then taper off Monday morning to
isolated to scattered showers. May see and additional 0.5" of
rainfall in the Eastern Alaska Range tonight. A more active
weather pattern will establish itself mid to late week, which will
bring back the wet, showery pattern back to the area when the
upper low and trough digs south from the Arctic.

West Coast and Western Interior...Isolated to scattered showers
will continue this evening and then taper off overnight over
portions of the Western Interior from Huslia south. Clear and
sunny skies from the Seward Peninsula north today through Monday
evening followed by increasing clouds as the next system
approaches from the northwest Tuesday. Some instability over the
Upper Kuskokwim Valley to help spark off a few thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening.

Arctic Coast and North Slope...The 24/1811Z NASA SPoRT Daytime
Microphysics satellite image shows an area of low stratus and fog
stretching from Icy Cape east across the Arctic Plains to
Deadhorse and north of Barter Island. Areas of fog will again
develop along the Arctic Coast overnight and continue through
Monday morning. Easterly flow will continue through Monday morning
then shift to have more of an offshore component from Barrow west
as a weak low moves northeast over the area. To the east,
easterly flow will continue through mid week.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wet conditions across most of the area will continue to keep fire
weather concerns to a minimum through early next week. Minimum
humidities of around 28-38 percent expected in the Noatak Valley
and the northeastern interior today and over the northern
interior Monday and Tuesday. Elsewhere minimum humidities are
expected to remain above 40 percent. Excellent overnight recovery
as maximum humidities are expected to be above 80 percent.
Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening from Huslia
to Anvik and east over the Alaska Range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Flood Advisory for the Chena River at Moose Creek dam
continues, see latest statement for up to date information. River
levels on the Chena River upstream of the Moose Creek Dam continue
to fall gradually and are now below minor flood stage. At the
Moose Creek Dam, waters level will remain steady through Monday
then start to fall gradually over the next few days. Flow on the
Chena River through Fairbanks continues to be regulated to less
than 12,000 cubic feet per second by the Moose Creek Dam.
Elsewhere, water levels on the Tanana, Salcha, and Little Chena
continue to be high. The Flood Advisory for the Tanana River at
Fairbanks (Rosie Creek subdivision) has been cancelled as the
Tanana River has crested and water levels are now slowly falling.
Issues with ground water stemming from recent high river levels
will continue. For the Eastern Alaska Range, may see an additional
0.5" of rainfall tonight. Recent heavy rains in addition to
tonight`s rainfall could cause significant rises in the levels of
small rivers and streams in the Eastern Alaska Range.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood advisory for the Chena River at the Moose Creek dam.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.

&&

$$

LTH JUL 16



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