Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 302206
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
206 PM AKDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE 500 MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AND NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A TROUGH IN NW CANADA AND THE GULF OF
AK. THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THU THEN THE RIDGE
WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AS A WEAK LOW ALOFT MOVES OVER NE
ALASKA FRI AND SAT.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NW ALASKA WILL MOVE TO BARROW TO THE
YUKON DELTA BY 4AM THU...TO PRUDHOE BAY TO MCGRATH BY 4PM
THU...TO BARTER ISLAND TO DENALI BY 4AM FRI...TO EAGLE TO MENTASTA
BY 4PM FRI. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE TO BECOME
ISOLATED AS IT MOVES INLAND.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE NEAR ANADYR WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN NORTON
SOUND BY 4AM THU...EASTERN NORTON SOUND BY 4PM FRI...GALENA TO
ANVIK BY 4AM FRI...FAIRBANKS TO MCGRATH BY 4PM FRI...TO EAGLE TO
DENALI BY 4AM SAT...AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE BY 4PM SAT.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. COULD SEE RAIN
FALL AMOUNT UP TO 0.75 INCH IN THE ALASKA RANGE WITH THIS FRONT
AND .25-.50 INCH OVER WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE TANANA-YUKON
UPLANDS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 6-10C ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -2C IN THE NE CORNER OF ALASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOUT 2C THU ACROSS MOST OF AREA THEN COOL
A FEW DEGREES FRI.

SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH
FRI. THIS WILL CAUSE EAST WINDS AND NOCTURNAL STRATUS/FOG OVER
THE ARCTIC COAST INTO THU.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY
THROUGH FRI. WILL SEE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG UNDER THIS.

A THERMAL TROUGH FROM CHANDALAR LAKE TO EAGLE WILL PERSIST INTO
SAT. WILL SEE AFTERNOON CUMULUS ALONG THIS BUT NO SHOWERS UNTIL
THU NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SAT.

A 1003 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF EASTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 500 NM
NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY 4PM THU AS A 1005 MB LOW...AND TO 250 NM
NORTH OF BARROW AS A 1006 MB LOW BY 4PM FRI...TO 300 NM NORTHEAST
OF BARTER ISLAND AS A 1010 MB LOW BY 4PM SAT. A COLD FRONT WITH
THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO BARROW WEST BY FRI MORNING...TO PRUDHOE BAY
TO POINT LAY BY 4PM FRI...TO BARTER ISLAND TO CAPE LISBURNE BY 4AM
SAT AND TO THE BROOKS RANGE CREST BY 4PM SAT.
WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNING TO WEST 20
KT AFTER THE FRONT. WILL SEE RAIN WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL. SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH FRI...THEN
SIMILAR BROAD SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NAM HAS MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAN THE GFS...WHILE THE GFS HAS HIGHER BULLS
EYE AMOUNTS FRI AND SAT. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH THE MORE
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF THE NAM BUT WITH BULLS EYES IN THE UPSLOPE
WEST FACING SLOPES FRI AND SAT SHOWN BY GFS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK INSTABILITY NE INTERIOR FRI BECOMING STRONGER SAT. COULD SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SAT NE INTERIOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
COULD SEE RAIN FALL AMOUNT UP TO 0.75 INCH IN THE ALASKA RANGE FRI
THROUGH SAT. COULD SEE .25-.50 INCH OVER WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE TANANA- YUKON UPLANDS FRI-SAT. NO FLOODING EXEPCTED.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

JB JUL 14



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