Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 251847

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
247 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

High pressure continues to build into Northern Michigan this
afternoon. Thick layer of mid cloud is gradually thinning with the
departure of the cold front...which is now over SE Lower Michigan.
This diminishing trend will continue for the rest of the
afternoon...with skies becoming mainly clear for tonight. Southern
tip of a secondary cold front will clip our CWA on Friday...
spreading some scattered low clouds into the region...but certainly
not enough to preclude a partly to mostly sunny day.

Tonight will be noticeably cooler with ongoing CAA behind the cold
front. Overnight lows will fall into the mid to upper 50s. Friday
will be not quite as warm as today...and certainly less humid.
Afternoon highs will range form the lower 70s in Eastern Upper and
far NW Lower Michigan to around 80 degrees near Saginaw Bay.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

High impact weather potential: Increasing thunderstorm chances
Saturday into Saturday evening.

Pattern synopsis/Expected evolution: A reprieve in the active
weather is expected over the next 48 hours as yesterday`s low
pressure continues to move trough Quebec this afternoon. Despite
another weak shortwave and associated secondary cold front passage
late today, heights gradually rise through Friday with surface high
pressure settling atop the western Great Lakes. By Saturday morning,
a well-defined shortwave begins its decent from southern Canada into
the northern Plains. With a 100+ kt jet streak lying north of the
area, northern Michigan lies in the right entrance region with large
scale forcing for ascent and precip chances increasing throughout
the day. Aforementioned trough axis moves overhead Sunday with
occassionally unsettled conditions continuing into early next week.

Friday night-Saturday night: Overnight Friday, mid-upper level ridge
axis and associated surface high pressure shifts overhead before
gradually moving off to the east throughout the day Saturday as
aforementioned, well-defined troughing digs into the northern
Plains. Large scale forcing gradually increases ahead of the
approaching wave, thus increasing precip chances from west to east
throughout the day Saturday. As mentioned yesterday, guidance
continues to vary in the evolution/strength of the mid-upper level
feature...and ultimately the overall coverage of precip. At this
point, will aim to to take a blended approach to PoPs with chance
PoPs dominating the daylight hours for a fear that shower/storm
coverage may end up being rather low. However, will gradually
increase chances during the evening and early overnight as the best
forcing and deep layer moisture (1.50+ inches) advect in from the
west, although still concerned that beneficial, widespread rain will
impact all of northern Michigan. Despite MLCAPE values being progged
at only a few hundred J/kg, have no feasible reason to remove
inherited thunder chances throughout the period. With deep layer
shear values approaching 35-40 kts at various times Sat-Sat night,
will have to keep at least one eye on a sneaky isolated low CAPE/
moderate shear severe threat, but not overly concerned at this point.

Sunday: Guidance is in fairly good agreement come Sunday morning
that nearly all appreciable precip has exited/is exciting the CWA as
forcing wanes in the wake of mid-level troughing becoming centered
directly overhead. Weak upper-level ridging and associated high
pressure usher in cooler/drier air throughout the day Sunday with
peeks of sunshine expected to prevail by late in the day.


The pattern over the extended period remains highly progressive with
waves passing every few days. Sunday is the first threat of rain as
a subtle shortwave passes through Northern Great Lakes. The sfc low
remains rather weak with this wave and should not produce any severe
weather. Monday through Tuesday afternoon will dry out with the flow
quickly building back up before another wave comes down from Canada.
The general pattern looks to remain active after that.

Temps will remain above average for extended forecast with highs in
the upper 70s and low 80s. There is currently no concern for severe
storms at this time.



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

High pressure will continue to build into Northern Michigan
through Friday...resulting in VFR conditions thru the 24 hr TAF
forecast period. West winds AOB 10 kts this afternoon will become
light and variable tonight...and then NW at around 10 kts on


Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria for all nearshore
areas through Saturday. High pressure will remain overhead thru
Friday night...maintaining dry wx thru the period. Chances of
showers and storms will increase on Saturday ahead of low pressure
lifting NE out of the Central Plains and into the Western Great
Lakes region.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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