Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 020257
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
857 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HARNEY AND MALHEUR
COUNTIES..WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS HOLDING FIRM AND PREVENTING CONVECTION FROM FULLY DEVELOPING.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW...NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. VARIABLE WINDS 10KT OR LESS
UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

SUNDAY OUTLOOK...VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT GUSTS UP TO 40KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO TREASURE VALLEY HIGHS SHOULD REACH 100F AT MOST
LOCATIONS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO WARM THE 850-700 MB LAYER THROUGH
SUNDAY BUT HIGHS SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY STAY NEAR TODAY/S LEVELS DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.  MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD OVER OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING
NIGHTTIME TEMPS WARM.  MODELS BRING A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND MONSOON MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA.  THE TROUGH AND CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER
HIGH TEMPS 10 TO 12 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY/S HIGHS.  MODELS ARE HOLDING
QPF AND POPS DOWN MONDAY POSSIBLY BECAUSE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
STILL BE QUITE DRY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST WITH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW SITTING ON THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST LOOKS TO SEND A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE COVERAGE OF QPF THAN
THE ECMWF. AND...THE GFS BRINGS IN PRECIP EARLIER ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST POPS ARE LOW FOR NOW BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THIS SHORTWAVE LOWERING TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES TO BELOW NORMAL. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST REMAINS
DRY AS THE AREA TRANSITIONS INTO A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW...AS A CUT-OFF
LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW HAS HAD SOME
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     IDZ400-401-423-426.
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP/DD



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