Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 251508

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
908 AM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Pacific high pressure building inland will bring
clear skies and warming temps lasting through Thursday.  Next
significant trough, handled variously by models, will come in
late next week with showers and cooling.  Current forecast on


.AVIATION...VFR.  Mostly clear with only a few high cirrus clouds
today. SFC Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 kts.
Winds aloft up to 10 KFT MSL will be NW at 10 to 15 kts.


SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...Upper level ridge will
continue to build across the Intermountain West through Monday.
Expect light diurnal winds, mostly clear skies and above normal
temperatures. Monday, temperatures will reach the low 80s in the
lower valleys which is about 8-10 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM...Monday night through Sunday...An upper level ridge will
bring clear skies and afternoon temperatures about 10 degrees above
normal through midweek. As we transition from Wednesday into
Thursday, will see increasing clouds as an upper level trough drops
down from the Gulf of Alaska and moves east, kicking the ridge out
of the region. Won`t see a significant temperature drop (about 5-10
degrees) until Friday, however, when southwest winds shift to the
west and northwest with the trough`s associated cold front. Frontal
passage will bring the region`s first chance of thunderstorms,
though associated instability is low and moisture tap looks to be
limited. Two shortwaves will pass through the trough and through the
region between Saturday and Sunday. Models are still showing some
differences in timing and therefore precipitation coverage, but
as the ECMWF has been more consistent run to run, have relied
significantly on this resolution. Thus, looking for the first
shortwave to transition through the region Saturday with a 10-15
degree drop (below normal) and another chance of thunderstorms in
the forecast. Next shortwave will start edging its way into the
region Sunday. Best chances of precipitation through the period
will be over the higher terrain, mainly over the central Idaho
mountains and over the mountains in Baker County.





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