Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 282037
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
237 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WERE FORMING IN ERN
OWYHEE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY...NEAR WHERE MODELS
PUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL COME INLAND OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS OREGON ZONES MIDDAY SATURDAY
AND IDAHO ZONES LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING.  FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR
COUNTIES SATURDAY.  FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING TO
THE OREGON SIDE LATE SATURDAY...BUT IDAHO WILL HAVE TIME TO GET
WARM AGAIN SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.  EVEN WITH COLD
ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS
MILD...BUT SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN ALL ZONES.  MODELS
KEEP OREGON ZONES DRY SATURDAY BUT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST IT WILL
MOISTEN AND IDAHO ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AND WE
SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN EXCEPT ALONG NRN BORDER ZONES IN THE HEART OF
THE UPPER TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LONGWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SIT OFF THE PACNW COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO DO SO FOR
THE MID AND LONG TERM. AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES MODELS INDICATING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE FLOW SLOWLY MOVING INLAND...BUT WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWA. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY....NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES INTO WASHINGTON
THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. ECMWF SHOWS THIS LOW
PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM
STALLING OUT AND NOT MAKING PASSAGE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND EXACT TIMING. BECAUSE OF THIS
DISAGREEMENT...WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS AND
LIMITED THE HIGHER POPS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECTED TEMPS DURING
THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. OCCASIONAL MVFR FROM
WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF A LINE KBNO-KSNT. SLIGHT CHANGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAGIC VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS NEAR 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12
KTS OR LESS...BUT AFTER 29/18Z INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN SE OREGON...WITH
FORECAST GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SW 10-
15 KTS...THEN BY 29/12Z SSW 35-50 KTS...THEN DECREASING AFTER 30/00Z
TO 20-25 KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
SUNDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS AND CALMER WINDS WITH PASSING CLOUDS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP/JC
AVIATION.....EP


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