Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 031541
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
941 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. BACK EDGE OF OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON TOWARDS TAHOE
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH THIS EVENING
AIDING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFFSHORE IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEEPEN TO A CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE
WEST COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND FRIDAY. A WAVY STATIONARY FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS N NV THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
MOIST FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW...THE FRONT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO FOCUS MODERATE /POSSIBLY HEAVY/ PRECIPITATION AT
TIMES. 12Z NAM IS STILL RATHER WET /HALF AN INCH/ OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT
NOT AS MOIST /ONE INCH/ AS ITS 06Z RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 231Z THRU 03Z...EXCEPT
SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL IDAHO. SURFACE
WINDS...15 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL...SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS. WINDS UP TO 35 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE OREGON AND NRN CA COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ACTING TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION. SPC HAS EXTREME SE OREGON AND FAR SW IDAHO IN
A MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...WE
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE WE EXPECT
ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE...AT BEST. OUR UPPER FLOW WILL BACK OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER NRN CA AND THEN MOVES SOUTH
ALONG THE CA COAST THU. WE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL BOTH DAYS AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT
NEAR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LOW ENTRAINING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BLANCA AS IT APPROACHES
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY ACROSS NEVADA AND THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL STORM /PRECIPITABLE WATER TO CLOSE TO AN INCH/ REACHES
THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT RAIN MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. THE LOW WEAKENS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BEGINNING MONDAY.
EXPECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS


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