Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 232056
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
256 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN U.S. AND A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER SE OREGON/SW
IDAHO. WARMING AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE WITHIN THIS FLOW WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GETTING TO AROUND 90F IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS...INCLUDING BOISE. A COLD FRONT WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH OUR AREA...REACHING
SOUTHEAST OREGON BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BOTH
AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SW IDAHO.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE /TO MUCH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS/ WILL OCCUR
THIS WEEKEND...AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC. PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS OREGON AND IDAHO. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS
IT TRACKS EAST AND SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AND MOISTURE STREAMS
NORTHWARD IN WRAP-AROUND FLOW. SIGNIFICANT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS /GREATER THAN ONE INCH/ ARE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL IDAHO.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN HOW QUICKLY THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST AND WHETHER THE TROUGH WILL SPLIT /AS
IT DOES IN THE ECMWF/. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SW
IDAHO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED LOW-VFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND HIGH TERRAIN NEAR KBKE
THROUGH 03Z. SCATTERED-TO-BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. SE-
TO-SW SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON THROUGH 03Z. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....MT/AB
AVIATION.....MT



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