Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 161511

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
911 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...A weak upper level trough is moving southeast across
the region today bringing scattered mid and high clouds mainly
across southwest Idaho. Clouds will push to the east-southeast
by this evening for clear skies tonight. The trough will bring
light west- northwest winds today and tomorrow. Temperatures will
be near normal. Warm and dry conditions expected through Saturday
under northwesterly flow. Moisture could return along the Nevada
border Sunday into Monday for increased clouds and a slight chance
for showers and thunderstorms. No forecast updates needed at this


.AVIATION...VFR under few-scattered high level clouds. Surface
winds: northwest up to 10 kts. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: Westerly 5-
15 kts.


SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...A dry northwest flow aloft
will keep skies mostly clear. A weak shortwave trough embedded in
the flow will provide areas of high clouds today. Temperatures will
be near normal.

LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday...No significant changes
in the latest model runs. Dry westerly flow aloft will maintain
mostly clear skies through Saturday. An upper level low will form
near the California coast early next week. South-southwest flow
aloft to the the east of the low will draw moisture from the
southern Great Basin into our area by Tuesday. There is some VFR
under scattered-broken high level clouds. Northwest surface winds up
to 10 kts. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: Westerly 5-15 kts. uncertainty
in how quickly the moisture arrives due to timing differences in the
models. For now, it looks dry for most areas Sunday and Monday
except for a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms
south of the Snake River. Moisture spreads further north on Tuesday
for a slight chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms over the
higher terrain of SE Oregon and SW Idaho. Temperatures will be near
normal through the period.





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