Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 010242

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
842 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...Dry conditions expected through Monday afternoon
under northwest flow aloft. Next wave moves through the region
Monday evening bringing a short period of light showers. A ridge
then builds across the western US on Wednesday, bringing a drying
and warming trend, and temperatures rising to around 15 degrees
above normal by Thursday. High temperatures will be below records
with low to mid 80s expected on Thursday afternoon. No changes to
the current forecast.


.AVIATION...VFR with scattered mid level clouds across SW Idaho and
SE Oregon tonight through Monday. Sky will become overcast on Monday
afternoon with isolated rain showers moving through the area on
Monday evening. Surface winds: west-northwest 10 to 15 kts. Winds
aloft near 10k feet MSL: northwest around 25 kts.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...Isolated showers will
continue through this evening with passage of the shortwave and
cold front. Showers will produce very little rainfall less the a
couple of hundreths. Winds will increase from the northwest this
evening with the frontal passage. The front will move across
Southeast Oregon by 03z and Southwest Idaho by 09z. Northwest
winds will blow 15 to 30 mph in the Upper Treasure Valley and
western Magic Valley, 10 to 20 mph in eastern Oregon, and 5 to 15
mph elsewhere. Another shortwave moves across the Pacific
Northwest Monday afternoon/evening for more showers. Upper level
ridge begins to build eastward on Tuesday beginning the drying and
warm trend. Temperatures gradually warming for the low 60s Monday
into the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday...Upper level ridge will
strengthen as it shifts eastward - from near the coast on Tuesday
and into Idaho on Thursday. High temperatures will warm 5-10 degrees
each day, with valley highs in the 70s to lower 80s on Thursday.
Models agree that an upper trough will approach the PacNW late in
the week, but a lot of uncertainty for next weekend pertaining to
the development and track of an upper low. Temperatures will remain
well above normal late in the week, trending down to near normal
next weekend. Dry weather will accompany the ridge Tuesday through
Thursday, followed by a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the
remainder of the extended period.





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