Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 291650
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
950 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE FOG THIS MORNING...BUT STRATUS COVERS
MOST OF THE MAGIC VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE TREASURE VALLEY. IT ALSO
EXTENDS WELL INTO OWYHEE...BAKER...NORTHERN MALHEUR...AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST HARNEY COUNTIES. THIS WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON
BUT LIKELY COME BACK TONIGHT. ALL THIS IS IN THE FORECAST SO NO
UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR VALLEY FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE VFR CONDITIONS.
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA VFR WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
EXPECT VALLEY FOG/STRATUS TO RETURN TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS TODAY
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND
10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
CROSS OREGON INTO NV LATER TODAY AND SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH /TO
SOCAL/ FRIDAY. INVERTED TEMPERATURE PROFILE...VALLEY FOG AND
STRATUS FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON...ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE VALLEYS
AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH A CUT OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE OFF OF THE PACIFIC
COAST...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THEN A
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. ON SUNDAY THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT
AND TRANSITION THE AREA INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...WITH SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS
NEAR 5000-6000FT. THE RIDGE OFF OF THE COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN
AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE RIDGE AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING
PRECIP TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...RD
AVIATION.....RD
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP


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