Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
FXUS65 KBOI 251554
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
954 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016
.DISCUSSION...The large upper level trough continues to slowly
move east across the area today. This will bring another day of
mainly isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
As is usually the case, the chances will be best on the higher
terrain. We are doing a minor update this morning to extend a
slight chance of thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening to
the west into a slightly larger portion of southeast Oregon.
Latest guidance indicates an increased forecast of instability
there, and satellite shows clearing skies developing over parts
of Harney and Malheur counties. These areas will still see a
mixture of cloud and sun for the remainder of the day as
convective clouds slowly grow and move southeast. Update out
.AVIATION...VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly near
the Idaho/Nevada border as well as higher elevations of eastern
Oregon and Western Idaho, through late afternoon. BKN-OVC mid-
level cloud cover, 9K-11K feet MSL, with shower activity. Surface
winds west to northwest 10-20kts. Winds aloft to 10K feet MSL,
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...Elongated upper level trough
will continue to impact the region today with scattered to
numerous light showers developing mainly over the higher terrain.
Convection under this pattern has been weak in the last few days
with limited thunderstorms observed, therefore included only a
slight chance over the Idaho high terrain and along the OR- NV
border. Temperatures today will be near normal. Showers will taper
off overnight and Thursday as the trough transitions east and the
flow becomes northwesterly. Looking for showers over the Idaho
high terrain with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Temperatures will warm slightly under increased
heights and clearing skies.
LONG TERM...Thursday Night through Thursday...
The northward shift of the southward moving upper low on Friday
and Saturday, noted by the earlier forecaster, continues in the
06z run. Front still expected to slide into eastern Oregon
Thursday evening and then into the Boise and McCall region after
midnight and the Twin Falls area around sunrise Friday. Not real
impressed with any of the convective parameters as best
instability generally across the Frank Church Wilderness region.
Have also removed mention of showers across the Nevada/Idaho
border area for Friday and Saturday. A weak trough slides across
the region Sunday evening bringing a mention of showers and
thunderstorms to the north. Models continue to hint that a rapid
warmup is on its way after the Memorial Day weekend. Southwest
flow aloft with 500 mb heights over 580 dm...well above normal
temps possible by mid next week.
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....CR