Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 072100
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
300 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS
INCREASED ACROSS HARNEY...MALHEUR...AND OWYHEE COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES OF A HALF INCH OR
MORE PER HOUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR
THE NEVADA BORDER AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INLAND. A DEFORMATION AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH-
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING WHICH
COULD LEAD TO NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY
ON STEEP TERRAIN AND BURN SCARS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE TROUGH EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
STRONGER TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST SETTING UP MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN TO
ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AND THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY THOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR EAST THESE SHORTWAVES
MAKE IT. THIS WOULD EFFECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AS
IT SLOWLY SHIFTS INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE MAY ALSO
BECOME MORE LIMITED BY TUESDAY AS THE MAIN MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR FLASHING FLOODING POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON...SOUTH OF THE TREASURE VALLEY AND CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET EXCEPT ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER WERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS 12KT OR LESS EXCEPT ERRATIC GUSTS UP TO
40KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL...NORTHWEST 10-20KT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER EXPANDING NORTHWARD
INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT IDZ423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



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