Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 072035
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
235 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE OVER THE PLAINS
WHERE THEY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 50S
OVER THE PLAINS AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. A MOIST AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES. MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH WITH A DISTURBANCE AIDING IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. FOR TOMORROW MORNING EXPECT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS BRINGING A SLOWER WARM UP SIMILAR TO TODAY. BY
THE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED ATM UP TO 500 MB WITH PW VALUES OF
1.00 TO 1.15 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO INCLUDE THE FOOTHILLS WITH A CHANCE ELSEWHERE. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND HIGH
MOISTURE VALUES. FURTHER INVESTIGATION WILL BE NEEDED TO LOOK INTO
ANY FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN PREPARATION FOR
ISOLATED FLOODING EVENTS IN CONJUGATION WITH THE STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE. SEE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION
BELOW REGARDING HEAVY RAIN THREAT. WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS
FOCUSED MOST ON THE PALMER DIVIDE/LINCOLN COUNTY AREA IN THE
EVENING AND THEN DECREASING ALL AREAS LATE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...SOME DRYING IS NOTED BUT NOT SURE WE WILL SEE THAT
MUCH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE PLAINS WILL HOLD
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN/NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...CAPE VALUES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EXPECTED
TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR FOR ONE OR TWO
SEVERE STORMS. STORMS WILL BE MOVING FASTER SO THREAT OF ANY
FLOODING IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEVELOP WHICH WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SCOUR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BUT AT THE SAME TIME WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. GREATEST CAPE
VALUES ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE A
COUPLE SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE STORMS WILL BE HIGHER
BASED AND PRODUCE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AND EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST
AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT CANT TOTALLY
RULE OUT HIGH BASED STORMS GIVEN SOME FEEDBACK FROM RELATIVELY
MOIST SOIL/VEGETATION.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WOULD ALLOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO
BUILD AND SPREAD BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO. BEST CHANCES
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION SPILLING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HAZE RESTRICTING VIS DOWN TO 3-4 SM AND CEILINGS HOVERING
AROUND 020-030 AGL. STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN JEFFERSON
COUNTY WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE PERIOD SO WILL MAINTAIN THE TSRA
TEMPO GROUP WITH VCTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TOMORROW WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 18Z WITH MODERATE TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN THE PLACE WITH PW VALUES OF 1.00 TO
1.15 FOR WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING QPE VALUES OVER THE
REGION WITH GFS AND NAM SHOWING UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF BY 00Z
THURSDAY. STORMS WILL BE SLOWER MOVING THAN DAYS PRIOR SO A
POSSIBLE FLOOD THREAT DOES EXIST FOR ALREADY SATURATED AREAS LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOCUS SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH HOWEVER...WHICH WOULD PUT LINCOLN/ELBERT COUNTIES AT
MOST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH NEAR 6000
FEET...SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...AND HIGH PW VALUES WOULD ALL BE
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL STORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE
DRYING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER BASED AND FASTER MOVING SO NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES
FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...BOWEN
HYDROLOGY...BOWEN/BARJENBRUCH


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