Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 310707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI
VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY
AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN
SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL
RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E
COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID
TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER
70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
* UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
* MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS
MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.  WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY
ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90.

THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
HIT THE MIDDLE 90S.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A SPOT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT
ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK


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