Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 160833
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME FROST
IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN
SLIP OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL NY/PA AND IT/S ATTENDANT
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS E PUSH THROUGH THE
MORNING...SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z AND 20Z TODAY.
BUFKIT DATA SHOWS MODEST MOISTURE BETWEEN 1000 HPA AND ABOUT
H5...YIELDING PWATS ABOUT 1.0 INCHES AND MODEST LIFT WITHIN THESE
SAME LVLS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE HAVE ALREADY
SEEN GRADUALLY DESCENDING CIGS AND EVEN SOME MODERATE WSR-88D
ECHOS ACROSS NW MA AND SRN NH...BUT DWPT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN
10F HAVE LED TO LITTLE EFFECT AT THE SFC UNTIL JUST WITHIN THE
LAST HOUR OR SO /ABOUT 07Z/. EVEN THOSE OBS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING
LIGHT RAIN...VSBYS ARE 10SM...AND THESE SITES HAVE DWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 5F OR LESS.

WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS...AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. DO NOTE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE
COLUMN AND MODEST LIFT EXTENDS TO THE COAST AS HIGH PRES MOVES
OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...FEEL CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED E OF
WORCESTER COUNTY...WITH SOME LIKELY POPS TO THE W...WHERE LIFT IS
GREATEST AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. AT THIS POINT...JUST A DAMPENING
RAIN IS EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS...WITH TOTAL QPF VALUES BELOW A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER THAT SOME AREAS...PARTICULARLY SRN RI AND SE MA...MAY
SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE EVENING AS CLOUDS SCOUR
OUT...ALLOWING MANY LOCATIONS TO SEE THE SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEARS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
GRADUAL CLEARING CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE IS EXPECTED
AS NOSE OF COOL HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. THE
COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND SLACKENING SFC PRES GRADIENT
SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A LOCALIZED COOLER VALLEY IN NW MA OR
CHESHIRE COUNTY NH FALLS BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN WIDESPREAD FROST AT THIS TIME MAINLY THAT DWPTS WILL BE
A BIT SLOWER TO FALL WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL MIXING TODAY...BUT
SOMETHING THAT THE DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO GIVE ANOTHER LOOK THROUGH
THE DAY.

WED...
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SEPTEMBER DAY. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EVEN AS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE N AND LOW
PRES DEVELOPS WELL TO THE S. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...THE COOL START
AND H85 TEMPS AVERAGING +7C WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S. OF SOME CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS ON
WED...AS LINGERING SWELL FROM EDOUARD INCHES TOWARD SRN NEW
ENGLAND. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HOIST ANY STATEMENTS AT THIS
TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY
  WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
* MUCH WARMER SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN LATER ON MONDAY

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM WITH ONLY SOME MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES. THEREFORE... WILL
USE A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. POINTS
OF INTEREST INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPERATURES AND FROST
FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND A COLD FRONT
BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT
BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT 50S SOUTHEAST COAST.

THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER WITH SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. BUT THE COLDEST
AIR SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
FROST IN SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MA AS LOW
TEMPERATURES DIP TO THE MID 30S FRIDAY MORNING IN THOSE AREAS.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO THE LOWER TO MID
60S...AND MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN NH.

REST OF SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR
EVEN ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY
SHOULD REACH 65 TO 70. BUT HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD REACH THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AN 80 DEGREE READING IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION IN A FEW LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY. MONDAY SHOULD AGAIN
TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY BUT CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT
COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW A LITTLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR OUT AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT MONDAY BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANY THUNDER.

THERE IS ONE POTENTIAL WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY...
PERHAPS WORTH MENTIONING. MODELS HINT AT LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. BOTH MODELS BRING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS AND PERHAPS AS FAR WES
AS NANTUCKET AND OUTER CAPE COD SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
CLOUDINESS THERE BUT TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCREASE POPS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM FORECAST /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...
PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR...BUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR MAY ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO W-NW FLOW FOLLOWING A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SOME SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE LATE MORNING-
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND WED...
MAINLY VFR. SOME FOG POSSIBLE AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF OVERALL. LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING OF A POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM FORECAST /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EVEN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
TODAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE 25 KT THRESHOLD FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...ALTHOUGH THE WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND
CONTINUE AS SUCH INTO WEDNESDAY.

HOWEVER...GRADUALLY BUILDING SWELL FROM EDOUARD WELL TO THE SE MAY
LEAD TO DOMINANT SEAS OF AROUND 5-6FT ESPECIALLY ON THE S AND SE
WATERS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE ON
THE HIGH SIDE INITIALIZING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SWELL FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL BE 5 TO 6 FT WED NIGHT ON THE OUTER WATERS
AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT THU. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ADVANCING ACROSS ONTARIO.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND. A NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WATERS LEADING TO 15-20 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AND SOME GUSTS
TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO AGAIN BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LIKELY.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED.
WINDS DIMINISHING AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FIELD
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...DOODY/FIELD
MARINE...DOODY/FIELD



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