Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 032334 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ALL CLOUDS DECKS HAVE RISEN TO VFR LEVELS WITH CLOUDS
TO SLOWLY CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH IN WAKE OF A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PASSING EAST OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
OVC-BKN CLOUD DECK TO BREAK UP AND MOVE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL
FINALLY PUSH OUT THE LAST OF THE LOW CLDS OVER THE RGV ALLOWING
FOR MOSTLY CLR SKIES TO PREVAIL WED AND WED NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE
A LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON INTO WED AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE CENTER OF TX. THE
SURFACE FLOW WILL THEN START TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE WED AND
WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR WEAK WAA TO START UP. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE RETURN OF THE DAYTIME HEATING WHICH SHOULD
PUSH THE TEMPS ON UP CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR EARLY MAY. LOWS TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN FAIRLY LOW ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF THE GENERALLY CLR SKIES AND LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL EFFECTS.

WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF TEMPS THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE MET GUIDANCE STILL APPEARS TO HAVE A BIT TOO
COOL OF A BIAS ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE COASTLINE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL SET UP BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 90S. THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOISTURE VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
A WESTERN CONUS CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENS. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK AND LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ADDED
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BUT NOT MUCH OVER SLIGHT CHANCES AT
THIS TIME.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUOY DATA AND SURFACE OBS
NEAR THE COASTLINE INDICATES A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WIND
CONTINUING ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE WITH GULF SWELLS RANGING
FROM 4 TO 5 FT. EXPECT THE PGF TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE TX COASTLINE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CALMER MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. NO SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT FOR EITHER THE BAY OR GULF WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON ALL LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  68  83  65  84 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          66  84  63  86 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            64  86  61  89 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN              65  89  63  92 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      62  92  62  93 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   70  77  68  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM
64...LONG TERM
65...PSU/GRAPHICS


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