Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
000
FXUS64 KBRO 202339 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
639 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE LOOPS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE EXTENSIVE
HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW NORTHWEST FROM SOUTHEAST WINDS
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MAINTAIN OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL
INVERSION TO LOWER GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS TO LOWER AT ALL
LOCATIONS. TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AROUND SUNRISE AS
THE BASE OF THE INVERSION REACHES ITS LOWEST LEVEL. CEILING TO
STEADILY RISE LATE MORNING MONDAY BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS TO
MAINTAIN MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT DECOUPLING SLOWLY AFTER
SUNSET. MODERATE SE WINDS RETURN MONDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MON. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT
OF CONV FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE CONV POTENTIAL DIMINISHING LATE MON INTO
MON NIGHT. DEEP SOUTH TX WILL REMAIN TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE
DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH FOR SERIOUS RAIN CHCS TO AFFECT DEEP
SOUTH TX. HOWEVER AND ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
AS SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONV OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO COULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

THE STEADY WAA WILL CONTINUE ON THE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE CLD COVER WILL TEND TO
HOLD DOWN THE DAYTIME HEATING...FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL. THE
LATEST MAV NUMBERS ARE COMING IN A LITTLE BIT WARMER VERSUS THE MET
NUMBERS ESPECIALLY FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT. SO WILL GO
CLOSER TO A MAV/ECMWF CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB TROUGH WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WASHING OUT NORTH OF OUR AREA. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH WINDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKS OUT INTO THE
PLAINS THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND EXITING
DYNAMICS WILL KEEP THE FRONT FROM MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH. A
STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY
WHICH WILL HELP DRAW THE WEAK FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AS A SFC SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONG NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PRETTY MUCH EVERY EVENING. ITS
DEBATABLE WHETHER ANY OF THAT ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES BASED CAPPING AND LITTLE LIFT. DECIDED TO KEEP INHERITED
FORECAST GOING. NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST
BUT DO CARRY SILENT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR A STRAY TSTORM MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN SECTIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES EVERY DAY. INHERITED FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND ADDED A
LITTLE OF ECX MOS SINCE IT HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING MOST GUIDANCE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 CHECKS IN TODAY
WITH A SE WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SWELLS HOLDING AROUND 3 FEET.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY
BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TUESDAY. AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL PERIODICALLY BE
POSSIBLE. SEA HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FROM 1-3 FEET TUESDAY TO 3-5
FEET WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/67





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.