Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 191110 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
510 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Mostly clear skies with gusty north winds prevail
across deep south Texas this morning. Surface high pressure will
spread across the area today, with moderate and gusty north winds
slowly diminishing by this afternoon. Light northeast to east
winds will prevail overnight as surface high pressure moves east.
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Surface high pressure will
spread across the region today with moderate and gusty north
winds slowly diminishing through the day. Cooler and drier air
will continue filter into deep south Texas today and tonight. High
temperatures today will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with
abundant sunshine. Low temperatures tonight will range from the
mid 40s across the northern ranchlands to the mid to upper 50s
near the coast. Surface high pressure moves to the east tonight
allowing winds to turn to the east on Monday. A 500 mb trough axis
will move over Texas on Monday. The combination of some marginal
moisture return and the trough moving overhead will support
increasing cloudiness and the mention of some low end pops on
Monday. High temperatures Monday expected to be in the low to mid
70s area-wide.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): The period begins with
broad upper ridging over the western half of the US with broad
troughing over the eastern half of the country. Strong and dry north-
northwesterly flow will be in place aloft over the Southern Plains
with surface high pressure located over deep south Texas. The
aforementioned features will bring precipitation-free conditions to
the Rio Grande Valley Monday night and Tuesday with high
temperatures Tuesday afternoon running 5 to 10 degrees above normal
area-wide. Things will quickly change Tuesday night into Wednesday
as another cold front moves through the region. This next front will
be very limited in moisture with only some sprinkles expected with
the passage of the front. For Wednesday behind the front, dry and
breezy cold air advection will knock high temperature values down 5
to 12 degrees Wednesday afternoon compared to highs that will be
reached Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday`s highs will generally range
from the lower to mid 70s.

Dry conditions with a warming trend will prevail across the forecast
area Thanksgiving Day through Saturday as strong high pressure over
the western US builds eastward. Thanksgiving Day will start off
rather chilly with morning lows in lower/mid 40s out west and mid
50s near the coast. Highs on Thanksgiving Day will range from the
lower to upper 70s, Friday`s highs will be in the mid 70s to mid
80s with Saturday`s highs in the lower to mid 80s.

MARINE (Today through Monday): Buoy 42045 (TGLO TABS Buoy K)
reported east-northeast winds around 25 knots gusting to around
31 knots at 02 CST/0800 UTC. Hazardous marine conditions are
expected to continue along the lower Texas coast for much of today
with some gradual improvement by late this afternoon and tonight
as the pressure gradient weakens. A Gale Warning is in effect
until 6 am this morning for the Gulf waters 0-60 NM east of Padre
Island due to sustained winds near Gale force and frequent Gale
force gusts. A Small Craft Advisory has been extended and is now
in effect until noon today for the Laguna Madre due to strong
north winds. Also, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 6 am
this morning until 6 pm this evening for the Gulf waters 0-60 NM
east of Padre Island due to strong winds and elevated seas. A weak
pressure gradient will prevail late tonight and Monday as surface
high pressure moves east of the region.

Monday night through Thursday: Weak onshore flow with modest
winds/seas will be in place across the northwest Gulf Monday night
and Tuesday ahead of another cold front slated to affect the Lower
Texas Coast waters. This front will sweep southward through the
region late Tuesday night through early Wednesday and will bring
Small Craft Advisory conditions to all of the waters Tuesday night
through the end of the period on Thursday.


GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until noon CST today for GMZ130-

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155-

     Gale Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ150-155-



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