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000
FXUS64 KBRO 250537 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1237 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

An upper level ridge currently situated over the Rocky mountains
will continue to shift eastward through the period. This will
allow an upper-level trough to move in from the West Coast and
reach the Central Plains by the end of the period. As the trough
traverses the western portion of the country, it looks to support
cyclogenesis along a stationary front in the High Plains Thursday.
A cold front associated with this system will then begin moving
eastward into northwestern Texas.

Additional forcing associated with a weak mid level disturbance
will likely strengthen a surface low over Central Mexico Thursday.
The net result of both of these surface low pressure systems to
the west, and the broad surface high pressure over the eastern
Gulf, will be enhanced pressure gradients and stronger winds
starting Thursday. Wind Advisories may be needed for Cameron and
Hidalgo counties Thursday afternoon, as DESI is showing >50%
probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph. Deterministic
guidance has been keeping wind gusts a bit lower, reducing
confidence in issuing a Wind Advisory at this point.

Rain chances look to remain near zero through the short term
period, though some cloud cover is expected to stick around.
Southeasterly winds through the period will support warmer
weather, with low temperatures in the lower 70s tonight and
Thursday night, and high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s
Thursday.

Additionally, with stronger winds over the Gulf waters on
Thursday expected to build higher seas, a High Risk of rip
currents is forecast for local beaches Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Key message:
-The South Texas wind machine will switch on Friday through Sunday

Generally quiet weather will dominate the long term forecast
period. This pattern will be supported by surface high pressure
influencing the region while significant storm systems move over
the Plains late in the week and into the weekend.

That doesn`t mean we`ll go without any local threats, however.
The tighter pressure gradient accompanying the aforementioned
pattern will allow strong southeast to south winds to develop.
This will be especially true Friday and Saturday and possibly
Sunday. As wave heights increase on the Gulf, the rip current
threat will peg at high through Sunday or Monday just based off
wave heights and may continue longer if heights remain moderate
with longer period swells.

Winds on Friday will be strong and could reach wind advisory
criteria over the eastern third or so of the CWA. The fire weather
threat will remain more restrained since the stonger winds will
occur over eastern sections where relative humidity values will
remain robust. Farther west, lower wind speeds and still decent
relative humidity values will fall shy of critical fire weather
indicators.

The GFS introduces a small convective threat over the Ranchlands
Friday afternoon and evening as the tail end of a cold front digs
south. The threat is currently too low for mention in the grids.
Wash, rinse, and repeat for Saturday as low pressure over North
Central Mexico helps maintain a tight gradient. The threat of a
wind advisory will return on Saturday, but there is still a bit of
uncertainty regarding coverage and duration.

Winds may decrease just a bit on Sunday as a cold front descends
toward South Texas. That front will be a bigger issue for East
Texas. Most of the energy over South Texas will be eroded by
strong southeast inflow, keeping the boundary slightly to the
north and lowering overall convective chances for the CWA.

Nonetheless, the NBM does admit mentionable tstorm potential
Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Instability in the
mid-levels seems to increase while the previous ridge starts to
break down. The NBM shows what looks like a training cell
scenario Monday night across the mid Valley northeast through the
Ranchlands. This signal was evident in yesterday`s forecast,
increasing confidence a bit. Can`t rule Sierra Madre Oriental
convection again Tuesday and Wednesday, but the threat seems to
diminish from west to east, from the front range to the Rio
Grande, and to the Ranchlands.

Temperatures will run several degrees above normal through the
forecast with no real interruptions. There will be a mix of
clouds and sun, though windier days could support a slightly more
robust low cloud regime. Otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A mixture of VFR and MVFR ceiling over the TAF sites currently,
but expected to become more MVFR over the period as southerly to
southeasterly surface flow brings in more low level moisture.
Winds are expected to remain gusty between 25 to 30 knots as the
winds remain out of the southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Tonight through Thursday night...Upper level disturbances
resulting in the strengthening of surface low pressure systems
over Central Mexico and the High Plains will combine with a broad
Surface low over the eastern Gulf to produce tighter pressure
gradients and stronger winds along the Lower Texas Coast Thursday.
These stronger southeasterly winds will build higher seas, and
likely lead to adverse conditions on the Laguna Madre and coastal
Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed on the
Laguna Madre Thursday afternoon, and extending into the coastal
Gulf waters Thursday night.

Friday through Monday night...Strong southeast winds will prevail
Friday through Saturday night, courtesy of interaction between
Plains low pressure and higher pressure over the West Gulf. Small
craft advisory conditions will be the norm. After Saturday night,
winds will remain moderate to fresh. Although small craft should
exercise caution conditions will be the norm on the Laguna Madre
after Saturday night, wave models continue the elevated Gulf seas,
meaning small craft advisory conditions will be possible through
the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             75  86  76  89 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               73  89  73  92 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 75  91  76  93 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         73  94  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      75  80  76  81 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     73  86  73  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk from 10 AM CDT this morning through this
     evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...64-Katz