Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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760
FXUS65 KBYZ 122219
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
319 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND COLD TROF
IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS
ALLOWED FOR A SURGE OF COOLER EASTERLY SFC WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA
TODAY...A POOR REPRESENTATION OF A MID WINTER COLD FRONT AS TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT IT HAS COOLED QUITE A BIT OVER RECENT
DAYS NONETHELESS. LIGHT PCPN HAS SHIFTED EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS AFFECTING ROSEBUD COUNTY EASTWARD AS OF 2130Z. MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND LATEST
MODELS SUGGEST ANY PCPN WILL END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT RISK OF LIGHT FREEZING PCPN OVER EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT
WITH SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPS AND ELEVATED WARMING...THOUGH ACTUAL
PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN
OUR WX STORY THIS POTENTIAL AND FOR LOCALLY SLICK ROADS IN OUR
EAST TONIGHT. OTHERWISE OUR WEST WILL BE DRY WITH STEADY OR
WARMING SFC TEMPS AS SFC TROF MOVES EAST AND OFF THE FOOTHILLS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOOKING WEST...PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS INDUCING HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY REACH
OUR WESTERN MTNS BY 12Z. ENERGY IS RATHER UNSTABLE WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHOWALTERS APPROACHING ZERO...SO EXPECT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW TOMORROW ALONG FAST-
MOVING AXIS OF MID LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. MAIN STORY IS WIND AS
40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAPPED INTO. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ENHANCED GAP WIND TONIGHT...MIXED WESTERLY WINDS WILL TAKE OVER
TOMORROW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 3HT SHOW NEAR 50 KTS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BY 18Z...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON...SO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT
HARLOWTON...AND NEAR 50 MPH AT LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER WHICH ARE
LOCATIONS A BIT LESS FAVORED BY WESTERLY FLOW. WILL ADD WIND GUSTS
ON SATURDAY AND POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS TO OUR WX STORY. IN
FACT...WIND IS REALLY THE MAIN ISSUE FOR OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN A VEERED NW FLOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. HAVE RAISED MTN POPS AND SNOW AMTS ESPECIALLY
THE BIGHORNS WHICH WILL BE FAVORED IN THE UNSTABLE NW FLOW. IT
WILL BE WINDY AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT WITH MIXED WIND POTENTIAL
SLIGHTLY LESS THAN ON SATURDAY.

TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY MID 40S TO MID 50S.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A
LONGWAVE RIDGE MEANDERS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.  SOME PRECIP
CHANCES /MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN/ EARLY AND LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK.

WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION MON INTO TUE. RIDGING MOVES IN FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. THEN BOTH EURO AND GFS SHOW 500 HPA
TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR
FRIDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING DRY WX UNDER RIDGING BUT EURO MOVING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES
STILL THINK LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT FRI.

IN ADDITION...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAINLY FROM BILLINGS AND
WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS SYSTEMS BRING SFC TROUGHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. RMS/JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MOST PLACES THROUGH SAT. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF KBIL-KSHR
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MVFR NEAR KMLS TONIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS THEN POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON SATURDAY ACROSS REGION IN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
LLWS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH-CENTRAL WY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. RMS/JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/052 034/053 039/063 041/063 040/063 042/065 038/060
    03/W    13/W    24/W    32/W    11/B    12/W    22/W
LVM 039/047 034/049 040/056 044/059 042/060 042/058 035/054
    14/W    24/W    34/W    32/W    11/N    23/W    22/W
HDN 029/053 031/054 033/063 035/064 033/065 032/065 033/063
    14/W    23/W    25/W    32/W    11/B    12/W    22/W
MLS 027/050 030/052 033/055 033/056 035/059 037/062 036/057
    45/W    22/W    24/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 028/052 030/050 032/054 030/061 031/064 034/065 033/059
    25/W    32/W    25/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    22/W
BHK 019/044 029/047 029/048 030/049 032/052 035/055 033/051
    55/W    42/W    13/W    22/W    11/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 028/053 028/049 031/056 033/060 033/061 033/062 031/057
    03/W    33/W    23/W    22/W    11/B    11/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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