Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 170408
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
908 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

.UPDATE...

No significant adjustments for this evenings update package.

The current observations at Livingston suggest they are not
experiencing gap flow at this time. The pressure gradient looks
to have its orientation a little to west to east. This would
explain the decent winds at Big Timber gusting near 40 mph this
evening from 270 degrees. Proggs suggest the gradient may remain
too westerly to really gap tonight, so we have reduced wind
speeds a bit overnight at Livingston and bumped them up at Big
Timber. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed...

Upper ridge sliding in place over the northern Rockies. This has
provided a sunny day for the forecast area with temperatures
moderating into the mid 20s to lower 30s for most locations. The
east had a colder start this morning and has struggled to get out
of the teens. Lows tonight will be tricky as the east will have
light winds and potentially could be very chilly with readings
falling near zero. The west, on the other hand, will have
downslope gradients developing, keeping temperatures up.

The upper ridge will get flattened tonight and Tuesday. This will
increase downslope gradients and provide warmer temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Surface pressure falls were already
occuring over southern Canada. This will allow a lee trough to
deepen and produce strong winds at Livingston and Nye, starting
tonight. These strong winds will persist, in periods, through
Wednesday night. The period of strongest winds looks to be Tuesday
night. Will leave the Wind Advisory in place.

Weak energy and moisture returns to the west Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. Will maintain low PoPs, but it appears
the best chance of precipitation will hold off until Thursday. TWH

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...


General troughing is progged to develop over the Great Basin into
next weekend. This will lead to a cooler pattern, with an
increasing chance of precipitation. The pattern looks very
disorganized at the moment, so very difficult to pin point the
most logical time for precipitation, but the pattern does have
potential to generate a storm system over the central Rockies,
pushing out into the plains into the late weekend time frame.

The strongest energy dives well to the south, so the biggest
impact of this pattern would appear to be cooler weather and not
so much wetter weather for the forecast area. The system on
Thursday looks to be less of a player now, as the ECMWF has come
in line with the GFS driving the forcing well to the south. Have
lowered PoPs as now the model agreement is for generally dry
weather. The GFS does maintain some weak forcing in western and
central zones, so do not remove PoP all together. Will have to
watch the energy kicking out into the central plains on Saturday
night and Sunday and could spin up some decent forcing over the
east as is hinted by the ECMWF. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across the forecast area tonight.
Southwest winds increase at KLVM late tonight with gusts of 30-45
kts after 06z, causing local blowing and drifting snow. These
strong winds will continue through Tuesday morning. TWH/Reimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 016/042 031/047 032/044 029/037 021/034 020/033 015/029
    00/N    00/B    01/B    32/J    12/J    22/J    11/B
LVM 022/045 031/048 034/046 026/040 018/036 018/035 016/033
    00/N    00/N    13/W    42/W    12/J    22/J    12/J
HDN 007/039 024/045 025/041 023/036 017/033 013/031 008/027
    00/U    00/B    00/U    32/J    22/J    22/J    11/B
MLS 002/039 028/041 025/040 023/037 020/032 017/029 009/026
    00/U    00/U    00/U    22/J    22/J    22/J    11/B
4BQ 007/040 023/045 022/042 021/036 018/034 015/031 008/025
    00/U    00/U    00/U    22/J    22/J    22/J    11/B
BHK 003/040 027/044 026/041 024/036 019/032 017/029 011/026
    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/J    22/J    22/J    11/B
SHR 008/040 025/048 024/044 021/037 015/034 012/032 009/029
    00/U    00/U    00/U    32/J    22/J    22/J    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM MST Thursday FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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