Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 212209
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
609 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...HAD TO EXPAND RAIN COVERAGE INTO EASTERN DOWNEAST
LOCATIONS AND CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTY. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A BIT
DOWNEAST WHERE RAIN HAS COOLED THE AIR.

LOTS OF RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO FAR, HAS JUST BEEN INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN CENTRAL/DOWNEAST. THE FIRST PUSH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN COMES TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST, AND LINGERING INTO TOMORROW. NOT
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING THAT HEAVY FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...JUST
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, DON`T SEE THE RAIN GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN
HOULTON UNTIL PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BECOMING QUITE WINDY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSENSUS MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE WARM ADVCN RNFL
WILL BE SLIDING E OF THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WED EVE.
THIS WILL LEAVE MOST OF WED NGT WITH LGT OR NO RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE
FA...XCPT THE COAST BY ERLY THU MORN...WHERE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION RNFL BAND MOVG NNE FROM CNTRL NEW ENG WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS PTN OF THE FA.

THIS DEFORMATION RNFL BAND WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
GREATEST PWS THU INTO THU NGT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NWRD INTO CNTRL
AND EVENTUALLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA. WHATS LEFT OF THIS BAND WILL EXIT
NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MIDDAY FRI. WE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF HVY
RNFL IN OUR GRIDS THU THRU THU NGT APPROX IN THE AREA ENCAPSULATED
BY THE 0.50 INCH 6 HRLY QPF ISOPLETHS FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE 6 HR PD
DURG THESE TWO PDS. RN SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SHWRS S TO N OVR THE FA
FRI BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND. WITH CLD CVR AND
RNFL XPCTD OVR THE REGION THRU MOST OF THIS PD...DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL BE SIG LESS THAN CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND WITH SCT
SHWRS AS WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF FROM CNTRL CAN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ERLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LVL RIDGING REPLACES THE UPPER TROF/LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS GOING DOWN TO MVFR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HOULTON WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTH EDGE OF THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SO TOUGH CALL ON
VFR VS MVFR THERE. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR TO
GO DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THEN PROBABLY
FLUCTUATING IN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED NGT
INTO THU MORN...WITH LIFR-IFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN RN DOWNEAST SITES
DURG THESE PDS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE LIFR TO IFR IN CLGS AND VSBYS
WITH RN THU AFTN INTO FRI...WITH DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY LATE FRI AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR FRI NGT WITH
DOWNEAST SITES MVFR THEN MVFR N AND VFR DOWNEAST SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NORTHEASTERLY GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM ABOUT 4 FEET THIS
EVENING TO 7 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY. COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
EROSION ISSUES WITH THE HIGH TIDE COMING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DON`T THINK IT`S ENOUGH FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT, THOUGH.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW WILL CONT THRU THU...WITH AN INTERIM
SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NGT. NO HDLNS NEEDED FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND ATTM...WITH WVS AND WINDS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTMS OVR THE WEEKEND. WE KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FOISY/VJN






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