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000
FXUS61 KCAR 111552
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1152 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
LARGER AND STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOON UPDATE...RAISED SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN SOME EAST
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY WHERE LIGHT SNOW HAS PERSISTED. SNOW
IS TAPERING OFF AND WILL BE MOVING AWAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING.  EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO END BY MIDDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.  WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR MID MARCH.  ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE
REGION GETS A BRIEF RESPITE FROM AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS
FOR ALL ZONES BETWEEN FAR NORTHWEST MAINE AND DOWNEAST MAINE FOR
WED AFTN INTO THU. IN THESE TWO AREAS...THE ORGNL WATCH HAS BEEN
CONTINUED DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT FROM THE EVENT
BEGINNING WITH REGARD TO TOTAL SNOW AMOUNT NEEDED FOR A WARNING IN
THE NORTHWEST...AND PRECIP TYPES OTHER THAN SNOW THAT COULD KNOCK
DOWN TOTAL SNOWFALL OVER DOWNEAST AREAS. BASED ON MODEL
TRENDS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NW ZONES 1 AND 3 AND INTERIOR
DOWNEAST MAINE ZONES 15-17 COULD BE ADDED THE CURRENT WARNING BY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT A CERTAINTY... SINCE THE LOW TRACK
GUARANTEEING HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE FAR NW COULD RESULT IN
MORE MIXED PRECIP AND EVEN RN AND LESS SNFL OVR DOWNEAST AREAS
WHILE A LOW TRACK FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIER SNFL FOR
DOWNEAST AREAS AND CUT-OFF GRADIENT OF TOTAL SNFL OVR THE FAR NW
BELOW WRNG CRITERIA.

OTHERWISE...THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS OVR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS ALG
WITH THE CIPS ANALOG PAGE HIGHLIGHT THE BEST POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
SNFL FROM W CNTRL TO NE PTNS OF THE FA...WHERE WE HAD ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE EARLY WRNGS...SPCLY CONSIDERING THE VERY HI
IMPACT POTENTIAL WITH THE MAX CORRIDOR OF HVY SNFL POSSIBLY
REACHING THE 16 TO 22 INCH RANGE. MIXED PRECIP COULD REACH AS FAR
N AS A DOVER-FOXCROFT...MEDWAY...ORIENT LN OVRNGT WED AS WARM AIR
ALF IS ABLE TO PUNCH NWRD AS THE DEEPENING LOW TRACKS OVR THE
COASTAL WATERS. INTERESTING AS THIS HAPPENS...LLVL COLD ADVCN
INCREASES AS LLVL ARCTIC AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SLEET BAND OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND E
CNTRL MAINE FOR A PD OF TM AND A BELT OF FREEZING RAIN JUST INLAND
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS
THERE COULD EVEN BE A PD OF ALL RN WED EVE BEFORE COLDER LLVL AIR
ARRIVES LATE WED NGT.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THE
MARGINS OF THIS STORM. OTHER CONCERNS INCLUDE WHETHER MID LLVL DRY
SLOTTING WILL COMMUTE HVY SN RATES FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED THU MORN
LOWERING THE ANTICIPATED SN TOTALS AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE
HEAVIEST CORRIDOR OF SNFL BEING IN A MORE NARROW BAND THAN WHAT
WE ARE CURRENTLY CALLING FOR...SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE
OCCURRING BETWEEN AN ADVCG ARCTIC FRONT THRU OUR FA AND A
DEVELOPING OFF SHORE COASTAL FRONT.

IN ANY EVENT...A RELATIVELY STRONG PRES GRAD BY LATE WED NGT INTO
THU WILL RESULT IN SIG BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNFL TO AREAS
RECEIVING MSLY HVY SN...BUT BL WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TM DO SUPPORT
SUSTAINED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR ANY PTN OF THE FA ATTM...EVEN
DURING THE HT OF THE STORM. SN SHOULD WIND DOWN ACROSS THE FA
LATE THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE. FOR NOW...THE PTN OF THE LATEST 00Z
ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWING HEAVIER DEFORMATION SNFL ACROSS NRN ME LONGER
INTO THU AFTN AND ERLY THE EVE...BUT THE ECMWF MAY BE OVERDONE
WITH THIS FEATURE...SPCLY CONSIDERING THAT SOUNDING TEMPS MAY BE
TOO COLD BY THIS TM TO SUPPORT MUCH OF A DEEP DENDRITIC ZONE FOR
HEAVIER SN RATES...SO WE KEPT WITH LIGHTER BLENDED MODEL LIQ/EQUIV
QPF-SNFL FOR THIS PD FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF CLD AND SN SHWRS OVR THE FA THU EVE SHOULD END LATE
THU NGT AS THE LOW CONTS NE TOWARD SE LABRADOR. FRI WILL BEGIN
FAIR...BUT CLDS THEN INCREASE FRI AFTN WITH THE APCH OF A CLIPPER
S/WV WHICH WILL FEATURE LIGHTER....MSLY OVRRNG WARM ADVCN SNFL FRI
NGT INTO SAT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES N OF THE REGION. FOR NOW WE KEPT
POPS IN THE HI CHC CATEGORY FOR THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER CLIPPER S/WV
FROM CNTRL CAN EVENTUALLY BRINGS THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE
REGION FOR LATER SUN INTO MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW THROUGH 11/15Z AT
TAF SITES.  VSBYS IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR
BY TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WED MORN TRANSITIONS TO IFR AND
LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN SN SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WED AFTN
INTO ERLY EVE AND CONTS LIFR WED NGT INTO THU MORN IN SN...WITH
MIXED PRECIP AT TMS OVR DOWNEAST SITES WED NGT. CONDITIONS
TRANSITION UPWARDS SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TO MVFR THU AFTN
THRU THU EVE...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES BY LATE THU NGT. VFR
CONTS ON FRI...THEN LOWERS TO MVFR OR IFR IN LGT FALLING SN FRI
NGT INTO SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST.

SHORT TO TERM: MSLY SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS XPCTD WED INTO WEEKEND
WITH A BRIEF PD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THU EVE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW PRES SYSTEM AS IT MOVE THRU THE MARITIMES. STRONG
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW MAY BE MODERATED BY THE
LOW TRACKING OVR THE WATERS WED NGT...SO A CHG IN THE TRACK EVEN
BY A SHORT DISTANCE COULD CHG THIS OUTLOOK. WE USED BLENDED MODEL
WINDS AND WW3 WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE CWF.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ002-005-006.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ001-003.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ004-010-011-031-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...OKULSKI/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...OKULSKI/VJN
MARINE...OKULSKI/VJN