980
FXUS61 KCAR 151843
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
243 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region this evening into
Wednesday. Low pressure will cross the region Thursday, followed
by another cold front on Friday. High pressure returns on
Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Today, high pressure sits over New York as low pressure system
in central Canada moves east, bringing another surface low with
an stationary front through the region through the short term
period. Aloft however, zonal flow continues to funnel in some
some warm air. Canadian wildfire smoke gets advected into the
northeast today into tomorrow night, causing some air quality
concerns through the evening. Hazy conditions, and sensitive
groups may be impacted if outside.

Tonight, high pressure clears skies, which could lead to some
radiational cooling. Did not lower temperatures too much
however, as expecting haze to hang around overnight and
potentially block outgoing radiation. Low temperatures tonight
in the low-to-mid 60s. Fog forecast along the coast and over the
waters.

Tomorrow, high pressure lingers in the northeast in the morning
before weakening, with low from Canada creeping eastward. Clear
skies and high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Dewpoints increase, but generally areas stay below apparent
temperature 95F heat advisory criteria. Places with the best
chance for these conditions are Central Maine, from Dover-
Foxcroft to central Penobscot. Hazy conditions persist into
tomorrow night based on smoke model guidance. Again, this
could act almost as a cloud shield, keeping temperatures from
raising much higher than what is forecast. If there was breaks
in the smoke however, temperatures could potentially increase a
bit.

Tomorrow night, cold front from low in Canada begins to creep
towards Maine, bringing the next chance for significant rain to
the region. Slight chance for some isolated showers in the
Crown of Maine as the front approaches. Higher chance of fog
along the coast and into the Downeast region. Low temperatures
in the mid-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thursday: Shortwave energy ahead of the approaching low
pressure system will move into the region. The concern with this
system will be the amount of convection development in the
afternoon, especially in the north. As of this update, the
morning is expected to be mostly sunny in the north with warm
temps in the 80s. As the shortwave moves in, instability
increases with higher CAPE and steepening lapse rates. Chance of
thunderstorms is expected north of the Central Highlands.
Decided to keep slight chance in the south with a decreasing
stability. In addition, upper air model soundings show PWATS
well above normal. Will most likely need a heavy rain tag on
thunderstorms for the day.

Thursday night: Showers will continue across the region as the
cold front moves into the state. Instability will decrease with
the diurnal cooling and a shift if winds from the W. Patchy fog
is expected to develop in areas that experience rain.

Friday: Per the previous discussion, a cold front from the west
will enter the forecast area early Friday morning and quickly
swing through the area through the day. With frontal passage
expected through the north by mid morning on Friday, the chance
for any stronger storms in the north is low. However, the front
will continue to push into the Downeast region through Friday
afternoon, which will line up better with peak diurnal heating
and could result in a few thunderstorms through the afternoon
and evening. Elevated moisture levels remain ahead of the front,
and so there could still be areas of moderate to heavy rainfall
with the frontal passage into Friday afternoon. However, a drier
air mass is moving in behind the front, and will quickly end the
threat of heavier rain after the boundary moves through.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure should move in front the Great Lakes by Saturday
making for partly cloudy skies and temps in the upper 70s to low
80s. High pressure should last into Sunday, however, some models
are trying to bring the next cold front into the region. High
uncertainty with the timing of the next system gave low
confidence in the NBM precip forecast. Decided to reduce chance
to slight chance. Model seem to return to agreement with the
next high pressure system early next week. Temps will be near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR conditions tonight. Haze from Canadian
wildfire smoke has reduced visibility slightly, predominantly at
northern terminals. Haze forecast to linger around into tomorrow
night. Winds from the W/SW at 5-10 kts, becoming variable
overnight. Winds from the SW tomorrow. Skies generally clear in
the north, with a few passing clouds.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR conditions tonight. Haze from Canadian wildfire
smoke has reduced visibility slightly at KBGR. Haze forecast to
linger around into tomorrow night. Winds from the SW at 5-10
kts, becoming variable overnight. Winds from the S tomorrow.
Skies generally clear at KBGR, with a few passing clouds. KBHB
forecast to have ceilings drop to and to fog develop due to
southerly flow. Conditions improve during the morning tomorrow,
raising flight category back up to VFR.

SHORT TERM: Thurs: VFR/MVFR as rain moves in from the north. TS
possible, mainly at northern terminals. S winds 5 to 10 kts.

Thurs night: MVFR/IFR over most terminals, with FG possible
along with lingering rain showers. Light S winds may begin to
shift NW late at FVE/far northern terminals behind frontal
passage. LLWS possible ahead of the front.

Fri: MVFR/IFR early, quickly lifting to VFR behind frontal
passage from north to south. Winds shifting NW 5 to 10 kts with
gusts to 20 kts. LLWS possible ahead of the front.

Fri night-Sat: VFR. Winds light and variable.

Sunday: Uncertain conditions. Possible VFR/MVFR in rain showers.
WSW winds 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria
tonight into tomorrow night. Seas stay at or below 3 ft over the
outer waters, and at or below 2 ft for the inner waters.
Winds from the SW at 5-10 kts tonight, becoming S by tomorrow
evening. Gusts up to 15 kts possible. Fog over the waters
forecast tonight and tomorrow night.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for
this period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT Wednesday evening for
     MEZ001>006- 010-011-031-032.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Brennan/LaFlash
Marine...Brennan/LaFlash