Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 242056
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
356 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak back door cold front will move southward into Downeast
portions of the region overnight and then become stationary
early Saturday morning. This front will lift back to the north
across all of the region later Saturday morning and afternoon
as low pressure tracks northwest of the region Saturday evening.
This same low will bring cold front across the area late
Saturday night. Canadian high pressure will then build across
the region on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rain is finally ovrsprdng the region late this aftn, but temps
both at the sfc and alf up to 850mb are much milder attm then
thought 6 to 12 hrs ago. Also, all models have backed off some
with regard to how much llvl cold air will move Swrd into the FA
behind a weak back door cold front xpctd to settle to Downeast
ptns of the region by very erly Sat morn. This resulted in
making a difficult decision to canx the fzra adv for zones
10...5 and 6, the N Cntrl ptns of the region, orgnly slated for
late tngt into Sat morn. We still believe enough llvl cold air
will likely be present later tngt for lgt fzra for NW and far NE
ME, but not with 100 percent confidence, so this ptn of the
fzra adv remains in effect from 11 pm tngt til 10 am Sat. Any
ice accumulation will be msly a tenth of an inch or less ovr the
fzra adv area.

With most of the first batch of organized ovrrng precip exited N
of the FA by daybreak Sat, msly Chc fzra pops in the adv area
will be left across the adv area Sat morn with sct shwrs and
patchy dz mentioned Swrd to the coast. Fog, which we assigned
with sct shwrs and patchy dz, will become more prominent S to N
across the region late tngt into Sat as both temps and dwpts
rise abv fzg spcly as the front lifts back to the N across the
region later Sat morn into the aftn. Fcst hi temps will not be
achieved until erly eve given the late day surge of llvl warm
air behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday evening will bring a mild southeasterly breeze ahead of an
approaching cold front. Some scattered showers or patchy drizzle are
possible during the evening ahead of the front. The cold front
will then move across the area around midnight Saturday night
bringing a period of rain. Some of the showers may be heavy and
there`s a potential for an isolated rumble of thunder. Elevated
cape values are up to 300 J/KG as the front pushes through.
Showers will move east and away early Sunday morning as colder
air pushes in. Some snow showers are likely in the higher
elevations to the west early Sunday morning. Colder air will
follow on Sunday as low pressure over eastern Canada moves away
and high pressure builds onto the east coast. Sunday night will
be cold and dry as high pressure moves off the east coast.
Clouds will increase late at night ahead of a weak shortwave
approaching from southern Quebec. Some snow showers will then be
likely across the north late Sunday night into Monday morning
as the shortwave and weak secondary cold front slides across
the north. Temperatures Monday afternoon will then modify into
the mid 30s north and mid 40s Downeast with partial sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday night into early Tuesday should be mainly dry as high
pressure ridges over the region. A weak low with one center racing
across southern New England and another center over the great lakes
will approach Tuesday afternoon possibly bringing some rain or wet
snow Downeast. The main low will approach on Wednesday. Boundary
layer temperatures will likely be cold enough for some snow over the
north. However, a mix changing to rain will be likely Downeast on
Wednesday. The low pushes through and quickly moves away Wednesday
night followed by dry weather in high pressure Thursday into
Thursday night. Another weak low will move in on Friday bringing a
chance for some light snow across the area with the best
chances Downeast as the low tracks south of the Gulf of Maine.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Clgs and/or vsbys are xpctd to lower to MVFR with rn
this eve and then to IFR and even low IFR late tngt with mixed
precip N and shwrs...dz and fog Cntrl and Downeast. Fzra is also
likely from KPQI Nwrd late tngt into Sat morn. LIFR and IFR
conditions in scattered shwrs...patchy dz and areas of fog will
cont thru day Sat as llvl Srly winds brings moist maritime air
ovr melting sn pack.

SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds, rain and fog are
likely Saturday night. Conditions should improve to VFR Downeast
early Sunday morning then improve to VFR across the north mid
morning Sunday. VFR conditions across the north Sunday night
will lower to MVFR over the north late Sunday night and remain
VFR Downeast. VFR conditions Downeast and MVFR conditions across
the north are likely on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No headlines will be needed tngt and Sat...with winds
and seas increasing Sat aftn to near SCA thresholds by erly eve.
Marine fog will likely present spcly late tngt into Sat morn.

SHORT TERM: An SCA will likely be needed Saturday night into
Sunday for gusts up to 30 kt in S winds ahead an approaching
cold front. The SCA will likely have to continue for gusty
westerly winds following the front on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No changes to the Flood Watch were made with this forecast
cycle. Snow melt from the deep snowpack continues tonight
through Saturday night with rainfall amounts of just over a half
inch by Sunday morning. Water levels are starting to rise
modestly on the river gauges on the Piscataquis and its
branches, but the best response should be later Saturday night
into Sunday. NERFC and ensemble river forecasts continue to
rises into Sunday morning, but nothing that generates strong
concerns at this point. The focus will remain on the southern
half of the forecast area where temperatures will stay above
freezing into Sunday and where more melting has already occurred
with this thaw. Localized ice movement followed by jams is the
scenario to watch...mostly for southern Piscataquis and
Penobscot basins.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for MEZ001>004.
     Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for
     MEZ010-011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...VJN/Bloomer
Marine...VJN/Bloomer
Hydrology...MCW


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