Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 060514
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
114 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
107 AM UPDATE...SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS SPILLING ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN MAINE. ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE HIGH CLOUDS. INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS OK.

SKIES WILL THEN CLR OVRNGT AS WINDS BECOME LGT. THE ONLY CONCERN
MIGHT BE LCLZD PATCHY VALLEY FOG...SPCLY OVR THE SMALL PTNS OF THE
FA WHICH DO RECEIVE SHWRS FROM THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...BUT FOR
NOW... GIVEN THE SIG DRYING XPCTD ALF...WE HELD OFF PATCHY FOG
THINKING THE END RESULT MIGHT BE MORE IN THE FORM OF ERLY MORNING
DEW.

AFT NEAR SEASONAL LOW TEMPS SUNRISE MON MORN...TEMPS WILL RISE
RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY SUN UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LGT WSW WINDS
TO HIGHS SIG ABV 80 DEG F...XCPT ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
WINDS BECOME ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AND HIGH TRRN ABV 1500 FT MSL
OVR NW ME. THIS BASED ON FCST MAX AFTN 925 MB TEMPS OF +19 TO
+21 DEG C AT 21Z MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
MORE HUMID AIR TO MOVE INTO EASTERN MAINE ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...THEREFORE WILL NOT
MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SKIES WILL BEGIN
TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE 12Z GFS BRINGS A WEAK DISTURBANCE THROUGH THIS FLOW ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE LATEST GFS POSITIONS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW IN FAR
NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND
THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN MAINE
LATE ON SUNDAY.  THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SET UP BUT IS
12 TO 24 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD TNGT THRU TUE. ONLY ITEMS OF NOTE ARE A WIND
SHIFT TO LIGHT SW-S WINDS BY 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE
SOUTH, AND EXPECTED SCT CU DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO RUN FROM 2 TO 4
FT OVR THE OUTER MZ WATERS AND 1 TO 2 FT OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR
MZ. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS
THRU THIS PTN OF THE CWF.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT


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