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000
FXUS61 KCAR 130121
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
821 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN CROSS NORTHERN MAINE
FRIDAY DRAWING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT
DRAWING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION LATE. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
THE CLIPPER. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS COULD OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASES. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO...TO AROUND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW
CHANCES OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRESH SURGE
OF BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR
DOWNEAST AND BECOME PARTIALLY CLEAR OVER THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY.
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH ANYTIME THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL THEN BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
DOWNEAST LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BIG STORY FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A COASTAL
STORM FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS TWO PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRY TO
MERGE. THE LATEST TREND IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO JOG
THIS SYSTEM BACK A BIT TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH THIS TREND MOST
PRONOUNCED WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF. AT THIS POINT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE LOW TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FROM NEAR
CAPE COD NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS
KEEPS THE REGION ON THE COLD, SNOWY SIDE OF THE STORM WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER DOWNEAST LOCALS. THINKING IS FOR SNOW TO
BREAK OUT FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY FALLING MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP. WHILE
THE STORM IS STILL 3 DAYS OUT AND YET TO FORM EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE FOR 6+ INCHES TO FALL BY LATE SUNDAY DOWNEAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH.  THE COLD AIRMASS WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THIS BEING A FLUFFY,
LOW WATER CONTENT SNOW. THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT STORM
TRACK AND EVOLUTION GROWS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW LOOKS TO WIND DOWN TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SUNDAY
EVENING AS THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. THESE FLURRIES
MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS
THROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE
SNOW BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY REDEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH, IF THIS
OCCURS, WOULD KEEP SNOW IN THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY
AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.
&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TONIGHT. MVFR...WITH POSSIBLE IFR...CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AND PERSIST EARLY FRIDAY MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM:
VFR LOWERS TO MVFR THEN QUICKLY TO IFR AS SNOW MOVES IN FROM SW TO
NE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY.
PERIODS OF LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES. LOOK FOR CEILINGS AND VIS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
THEN PERSIST FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS
COULD APPROACH GALE LEVELS FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
IN ANY LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOME FREEZING
SPRAY IS LIKELY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN.

SHORT TERM:
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COASTAL STORM
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NE JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY. WHILE IT
IS STILL EARLY, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NE WINDS TO REACH GALE
FORCE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...NORCROSS/FITZSIMMONS