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000
FXUS61 KCAR 210900
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Jose will remain southeast of Cape Cod
today and begin to retreat back south. High pressure will build
south across the region overnight through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Quiet pattern continuing w/above normal temps.

Surface analysis showed high pres working its way down from
Canada w/drier and cooler air this morning. Some sites back
across the far nw have dropped into the upper 30s such as
Estcourt Station. Further s into the Downeast region, dewpoints
were still in the lower 60s but dropping off as the n wind
brings that drier air in. Tropical Storm Jose still spinning se
of Nantucket, MA and forecast to slowly drop s later today into
tonight. High clouds across the region due to Jose w/this
thickest cloud cover across the central and downeast areas. The
n winds and high cloudiness will keep temps down into the low
and mid 70s but as stated above still well above normal.

High clouds will thin out more tonight and drift s as the high
continues to press into the region. A cool night in store w/the
potential for some patchy fog later tonight mainly across the n
and w and along the rivers and streams. Overnight lows will
average in the 40s w/some sites once again back across the n and
w seeing upper 30s.

A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through 8 pm this evening
for the coast. Some splash-over is also possible at the time of
high tide later this morning. More on this in the Tides/Coastal
Flooding section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure aloft and at the surface will be in control
through the period. Expect mostly clear skies and light winds
except towards the coast where more clouds will be present due
to Jose. Temperatures will warm from Friday to Saturday about 5
degrees warmer. There is a chance of some fog Friday night as a
steep inversion forms with lows in the 40s to lower 50s. A warm
front crosses Saturday night...means lows will only drop into
low to mid 50s. Fog will again be a threat will a more humid air
mass.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The warm front will mean warmer and more humid conditions Sunday
into Monday with highs in the 80s and dew points in the low to
mid 60s. Fog could again be an issue Sunday night into Monday
morning. It will be cooler on the coast due to an onshore flow.
A cold front will cross the area later Monday into Monday night
will bring cooler and less humid conditions for Tuesday. Little
if any precipitation is expected with the front. High pressure
will remain in place Tuesday into Wednesday, but there is a risk
of widespread stratocumulus overcasts due to an easterly low
level flow. The chances of precipitation will increase by late
Wednesday as Maria approaches from the south and a frontal
system moving in the northern branch start to converge on the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Some MVFR cigs in and out for KBGR and KBGR this
morning. Northern terminals such as KPQI seeing some fog w/tempo
IFR. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR this morning and
remain that way into tonight. Patchy fog later tonight could
bring VSBYS down to MVFR/IFR briefly across some of the northern
terminals.

SHORT TERM: Conditions will be primarily VFR. However, there is
some risk of all sites having fog later Saturday night into
Sunday morning...and again later Sunday night into Monday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA for Hazardous Seas was transitioned to a full
blown SCA for winds and seas. Winds are expected to pick up to
20 to 25 kit sustained w/gusts to 30 kts. The higher gusts will
be across the outer zones. Seas will stay up at 8 to 10 ft w/a
se swell component

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas associated with Jose will diminish
Friday, and it seems probable that the SCA will transition to an
SCA for Hazardous Seas by later Friday. This would likely
continue through Saturday. Another round of higher seas from
Maria could start by Monday night or Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A long period swell from Jose is running at 11 seconds/7-8 feet
entering the Gulf of Maine. Waves are expected to slowly subside
Today.The High Surf Advisory remains in effect through this
evening. There is concern that long period waves w/high impact
in the surf zone can run up much higher on the shore than
shorter period waves resulting in the danger of spectators being
washed into the ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents are also
expected.

Expect water level from storm surge to remain well under 1 foot.
There could be some minor slash-over around these high tide
cycles, however impact is now expected to be minimal.

Total water levels inland from the coast are NOT expected to be
high enough for flooding.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Hewitt/MCW
Marine...Hewitt/MCW
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Hewitt