Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 272246 AAA
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
646 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region tonight with scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms before midnight. The front
will stall along the down east coast on Friday. High pressure
will build in on the weekend bringing a sunny and dry weekend
for most areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
6:30 PM Update...Took the enhanced wording out of the grids as
storms are relatively weak at this and should remain weak
through the evening. A stray lightning strike is still possible
as the 500mb shortwave trough and surface cold front are just
beginning to approach the Quebec/Northwoods border. Overall
shower and thunderstorm coverage will remain scattered with only
half of the area expected to get measurable precipitation
tonight.

Previous Discussion...

Some thunderstorms could have very heavy rainfall and strong
wind gusts this evening.

The latest meso-analysis showed the axis of enhanced wx shifted
further s into the Central Highlands and interior Downeast. The
cold front is shown by the latest run of the NAM12/RAP and HRRR
to slide across the state tonight. Showers and tstms will set
up. The heaviest activity looks like it will be across the
aforementioned areas which would include the Mt. Katahdin region
with heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. There is also an
area of heavier activity shown to move through ne Aroostook
County this evening. Sounding data showed possible training of
cells which would lead to very heavy rainfall. As mentioned in
the earlier update, there is some directional & speed shear
which would allow for any stronger storms to have some rotation.
The evening crew will need to monitor things. Activity looks
like it will wind down later in the evening w/loss of diurnal
effects and best forcing pushing e. Decided to add the mention
of fog as winds will be fairly light into the morning.

For Friday, winds will pick up as the upper front apchs from
the nw and some drier air works into the region. The cold front
is expected to stall along the coast into the midday w/some
light showers lingering. Decided to keep a 20% pop for some
showers along the coast. Elsewhere, some sunshine returning
w/daytime temps in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong high pressure will build in from he west Friday Night and
persist over the region Through Sunday. At the same time low
pressure will develop over the Mid-Atlantic States and pass to
the south of New England Saturday and Sunday. This system is
expected to stay far enough to the south to keep both clouds and
precipitation south of the forecast area through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure is expected to weaken over the region on Monday
and Tuesday allowing clouds to increase, however the high should
remain strong enough for conditions to remain dry. A cold front
will then approach from the northwest Wednesday and may result
in some showers late in the day or in the evening. Another
strong area of high pressure is then expected to build in from
the northwest again on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions this evening for the northern
terminals w/VFR for KBGR and KBHB. Some tstms will lower
conditions to IFR briefly this evening. Looking for some fog to
develop later tonight which could allow for cigs/vsbys again to
briefly drop to MVFR/IFR. Conditions look like they will
improve to VFR for all terminals on Friday w/the exception of
KBHB as that site could see some MVFR cigs through early
afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No headlines are expected through the next 24 hours.
Kept wind at 10-15 kts w/some gusts to 20 kts. Winds will drop
off later tonight as they turn to the nnw as the closes in. Seas
2-3 ft attm will build some to around 4 ft this evening. Fog
will develop later this evening and persist into Friday.

SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize wind grids through
the day sunday then transition to the Super Blend winds. With
northeasterly flow expected Saturday into Sunday, will not make
any adjustments for boundary conditions. For Waves: Expect
longer period southeasterly swell (1-2 feet/8-9 seconds) to
dominate early Saturday then northeasterly wind wave is expected
to become the primary wave system later Saturday into Sunday as
low pressure passes to the southeast. Will use the Nearshore
Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to initialize wave heights. Will
not adjust wave heights Saturday and Sunday with under
northeast flow but will lower model wave heights for the
remainder of the period due to boundary inversion induced by
relatively cold sea surface temperature.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt/Dumont
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Hewitt/Dumont/Mignone
Marine...Hewitt/Dumont/Mignone


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