Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 251148
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
748 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain southeast of the region today through
tonight. A cold front will cross the region Friday. High pressure
will build across the region Saturday then move to the east
Sunday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along
with morning temperatures and cloud cover.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure tracking northwest of Maine will draw a cold front
across Quebec province today through tonight. An upper level
disturbance will cross the region today in advance of the front.
Expect increasing clouds across northern areas today along with a
chance of mostly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. After a
mostly sunny morning, expect partly sunny skies along with the
slight chance of an isolated shower/thunderstorm this afternoon
across central/Downeast areas. The cold front will begin to
approach the region later tonight. Expect mostly cloudy skies
along with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms across the
forecast area tonight. High temperatures today will generally
range from the lower to mid 80s across the forecast area, with
slightly cooler temperatures near the coast. Low temperatures
tonight will range from the lower to mid 60s across the forecast
area.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure is expected to pass to the north of the area Friday
with a cold front passing through the state behind the low. This
may produce some showers across the north but the south is
expected to remain dry. Strong high pressure is then expected to
build in from the west Saturday and crest over the region late in
the day.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will move to the east of the region Sunday. Another
cold front is expected to move across New England Monday. This
will result in showers across the region. High pressure will then
move in from the west Tuesday. Another weak cold front is expected
to cross the area early Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions are possible with any patchy fog,
mostly Downeast, early this morning. Variable conditions are then
possible with any showers or thunderstorms across the region this
afternoon. Otherwise, generally expect VFR conditions today.
Conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR levels across the region
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions Friday through Sunday. MVFR/IFR
conditions are possible Sunday Night and Monday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels today through early tonight. Seas could then reach
marginal small craft advisory levels later tonight for much of the
waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters. Have
issued a Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas for much of the
waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters, starting
late tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in patchy fog today
through tonight. Scattered showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm are also expected tonight.

SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM12 to populate the grids Thursday
Night into Saturday then will transition to the Super Blend winds.
Will lower NAM12 winds by 10 percent to better fit boundary
conditions. For Waves: Primary wave systems Friday through Sunday
expected to be from local wind wave with secondary long period
swell group. Long period swell (3-4 feet/13-15 seconds) may build
on Monday depending on the development and track of tropical
systems in the Atlantic. Will use the Near Shore Wave Model to
populate the wave grids.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT
     Friday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Norcross/Mignone
Marine...Norcross/Mignone



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