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000
FXUS61 KCAR 282315
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
715 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridge will remain across the region into Saturday.
Low pressure will gradually approach from the south on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
715 pm update...
Clearing is beginning to push in, albeit slowly, from New
Brunswick on nerly flow. Expect skies to clear shortly aft
midnight fm east to west. This wl impact fog potential for the
ovrngt but see no reason to deviate fm current fcst. May need to
lwr temps by a few degrees with next update depending on cld cvr.

Prev discussion blo...
The main challenges are cloud cover and fog potential tonight.

The latest visible satellite imagery showed clouds across northern
and coastal areas while the central portion of the CWA was seeing
sunshine. Temps varied where there was cloud cover as northern and
western areas were in the low to mid 50s north of Houlton and
Millinocket as they were running near 60. Central and interior
downeast areas were in the low to mid 60s. NNE were holding at 5
to 10 mph.

The latest GFS/NAM soundings including the HRRR showed clouds
breaking up for a time this evening across the north and west but
then returning after midnight w/the llvl moisture trapped below 2k
ft. This anticipated cloudiness can be seen residing back across
northern New Brunswick. Before this takes place, temps will fall
back for a time into the upper 30s. further to the e, the clouds
will keep temps up to around 40. Across the central and downeast
areas, mid 40s look good attm. The nne wind around 5-7 mph should
allow for the blyr to mixed some especially in the open areas.
Confidence is high enough that fog will form by early Thursday
morning. Valley and low lying locations have a chance of seeing
the fog w/the llvl moisture in place. The BUFKIT soundings point
to this as well.

High pres anchoring itself in across southern Canada will allow
for some sunshine on Thursday after some clouds and valley fog
erode by mid morning. Winds are forecast to more from the ne which
will add a chill to the air. Decided to boost Thursday afternoon
temps up from previous forecast based on how warm the central and
downeast region got(mid 60s). Northern and western areas are
expected to be in the upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The models are in good agreement through the period. A low
pressure system over central Kentucky with an occluded front
extending east into the North Atlantic along the coast of New
Jersey where it meets the warm and cold fronts and a high pressure
ridge across Northern New England and Eastern Canada will be the
major weather features to affect the weather through the period.
The high pressure ridge will remain in place across Maine through
the period as the warm front pushes north along the coast of
Southern New England with the front progressing to the Cape Cod by
the end of the period.

Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal
waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used RFCQFP for
first 12 hrs and a GFS for the rest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A low over Michigan, with an occluded front extending to Cape Cod,
a warm front extended east from Cape Cod into the north Atlantic,
and a high pressure ridge will be the main weather features for
the start of the long term period. The parent low is showing signs
that it is becoming mature. The ridge of higher pressure will hold
across northern Maine as the warm front pushes into the Northern
Gulf of Maine waters and Southwest Maine. Saturday afternoon the
Occluded front moves into Southwest Maine, the warm front moves to
Mid-Coast. By Saturday evening the occluded front moves to central
Maine, the warm front affects the entire Gulf of Maine. Sunday
morning, a secondary low forms in the Gulf of Maine, the occluded
front moves to central Maine. The parent low is co-located with
the upper level low. Sunday evening Parent low begins to fill as
the new low in the Gulf of Maine, moves east to the south coast of
central Nova Scotia. Monday morning the parent low continues to
fill and drift east over Lake Erie. Maine will remain in wrap
around precipitation associated with the remnants of the occluded
low. Monday evening an upper level troph is expected to move
through absorbing the remaining energy from the filling upper
level low and moving to the Downeast coast. Early Tuesday morning
high pressure will once again ridge into the area, and will remain
through the end of the period. A deep low is forecasted to be
moving up the coast at the starting Monday evening and is
forecasted east of the coast of North Carolina by the end of the
period.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the minor differences in the models.
Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by
factor tool.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours with the exception of IFR
restrictions between 09z-12z Thur at all terminals.

SHORT TERM: Aviation VFR conditions all sites through the period.
Early morning Fog around water bodies may lead to some vsby issues
for PQI, BGR, and BHB, conditions will improve rapidly after
sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA remains up through Thursday afternoon. Winds have
been coming up slowly, but seas are slow to come up as they are
still residing at 5 ft. Backed this up by a few hrs and show seas
building to around 6 ft in the outer zones by tonight. Winds will
increase to around 25 kts into early Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA criteria through the
period. Seas around 5 ft with wind gusts to around 22 kts at the
start of the period will subside early in the period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar/Hewitt
Short Term...Norton
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...Farrar/Hewitt/Norton
Marine...Farrar/Hewitt/Norton