Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 281440
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
940 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION (RAIN) HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
OCCURRING WEST OF THERE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE THIS MORNING...DRAWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING THEN TAPER TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH SKIES
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS
MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. A STEADIER RAIN WILL OCCUR
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING THEN TAPER TO ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER TONIGHT KEEPING
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL OCCUR DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S DOWNEAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 NORTH...TO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND NAM CLEARLY SHOW
THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT OPERATIONAL ECMWF DOES NOT.
COULD BE SOME SNOW SQUALLS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. WILL
INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH THE GFS AND MANUALLY INCREASE POPS AS THE
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A COLD AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR WINDS HAVE USED
THE MOSG25. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FROM THE CONSENSUS RAW TO
BETTER HANDLE AIR MASS CHANGE. WILL NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURE LOWER
TUESDAY MORNING AS GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR WEAK ENOUGH TO
DECOUPLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER AIR
WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT. WILL USE THE SUPERBLEND TO GENERATE
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STILL PERSISTING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS KFVE...
KCAR...KPQI AND KHUL MONDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
WAVE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE MONDAY THEN GO OFF-SHORE TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY SWELL REMAINING AS A SECONDARY WAVE GROUP INTO TUESDAY.
AN OFF-SHORE FETCH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHWEST FETCH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY. FOR WAVES WILL USE
THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE



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