Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 240214
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1014 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO FCST CLD CVR OVRNGT INTO
THU TO BETTER CORRELATE CLD CVR OVR THE SRN HLF OF THE FA WHERE
SHWRS WILL PERSIST LONGEST INTO THE DAY THU. WE OPTD TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS WITH THE LIKELY POP AREA OVR THE SRN PTN OF
THE FA AND COASTAL WATERS INTO THE REST OF THE OVRNGT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CAPE PERSISTING. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED OVRNGT THRU BASED ON MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
FCST LOWS LATE TNGT AND HI TEMPS THU AND OBSVD 8-9 PM TEMPS.

PREV DISC: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL LINGER DOWNEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL DRAW COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST
OF MAINE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREEZY DAY WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. A BIT OF MOISTURE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND INFILTRATING THE REGION MAY
BRING PATCHY CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOADED EXTENDED SUPERBLEND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST SLIDES EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND ESTABLISHES OVER NEW
ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. FOG NEAR THE COAST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIGHT THEN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KT IN GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER






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