Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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923
FXUS61 KCAR 110502
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1202 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BACK EDGE OF SN SHWRS ACROSS NRN ME IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO
CROSS INTO NEW BRUNSWICK WITH SN SHWRS BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE OVR
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA MAINLY E OF BGR.
OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AND CLD CVR
FOR THE REST OF THE OVRNGT BASED ON TRENDS SEEN IN LATEST SAT
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS.

PREV DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS
COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 20 NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE
A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5
TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED
APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GNRLY MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NEXT 24 HOURS THO AN OCNL
IFR -SHSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS LGT/VRB THIS EVNG, WL BECOME
LGT FM NW THE TWD 09Z THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN
BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON
SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER



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