Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 301621
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1221 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST AREAS LATER
TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO HAVE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN
UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN
THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE... MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N
OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES.

THE FIRST OF THESE S/WVS WILL BE CROSSING JUST N OF THE FA ON MON
BRINGING CLDNSS AND SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON MON
THRU MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TO MID
AFTN. ATTM...WARM MID LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHWRS FROM
DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS OVR ME...BUT AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE AFTN ALG THE NE ME/NW NB BORDER BEFORE
THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA LATE MON AFTN. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE GREATEST IN THE ST JOHN VLY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER OR NO RN AS ONE TRAVERSES FURTHER S.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN WILL
ADVECT SWRD INTO THE FA MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY TUE MORN.
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE MON MORN WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN...THEN MAKE MAKE A LITTLE FASTER RECOVERY TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TUE AFTN AS THE LLVL TEMP ADVCN BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL ALL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY WED
MORN AS THE SFC HI MOVES S OF THE FA TUE NGT. WINDS...WHICH WILL
BEGIN NEAR CALM TUE EVE WILL SHIFT TO THE LGT SW LATE TUE NGT AS
SKIES BECOME PTLY CLDY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLEXING SW TO NE OVR THE FA...TEMPS WILL
RAPIDLY RISE ON WED INTO THE 80S OVR THE REGION WITH A WSW WIND
AND PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS HUMIDITY RISES WITH INCREASING SFC
DWPTS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A VERY WEAK S/WV
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT
MID/LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVE TSTMS...MSLY ACROSS THE N. WHATS LEFT
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE S AND W OF THE FA BY
THU...PERHAPS BEING A FOCUS OF SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ALG THE SW
FLANK OF OUR FA ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ME. HI TEMPS OVR E CNTRL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL CONT VERY WARM SIMILAR TO WED...BUT
ACROSS THE N SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S)
AND DRIER AS SFC DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT.

AFTWRDS FOR FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING
WHETHER THE FA WILL BE IN SHALLOW COOLER AIR FROM NE CANADA OR
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN
THAT EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TMG OF WEAK S/WVS WILL BE PIVOTAL
IN DETERMINING THE TMG OF FRONTS ACROSS THE FA...WE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND AVG OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR HI TEMPS ON FRI AND
SAT WHICH STILL GIVES THE REGION ABV NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY ON EITHER DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT FCST RN POPS EACH DAY.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS OVR NRN TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER SHWRS ON MON AND AGAIN
WED AFTN/ERLY EVE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS AND LGT SEAS XPCTD...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVR
OUR OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ABOUT 90
AND 70 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PRODUCE
FCST WV HTS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN



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