Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 242322
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
622 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area through tonight. A
frontal system will move through the region later Sunday into
Sunday night. High pressure will then build back in through mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
620 PM Update...
No significant changes as the forecast matching up with the
latest conditions. Just some tweaking made to the hrly temps.

Satl imagery showed clearing trend continuing w/temps falling
off w/the clearing. NW winds still hold up keep llvls mixed.
These winds are expected to continue to drop off overnight
w/sites across the n and w seeing near 0F or lower. Daycrew has
this handled well.

Previous Discussion...
1026mb sfc high sitting just north of Ottawa Ontario wl
continue building east drg the ovrngt hrs. This wl allow clds to
dissipate this evng with loss of diurnal htg and with winds
bcmg near calm radn`l cooling wl allow temps to drop blo 0F acrs
cldr vly locations in the North Woods. Min ovr nrn Aroostook wl
appch zero in notoriously colder locales. S/wv mvg thru OH
valley this aftn and bringing rain to portions of the northeast
wl skirt well south of CWA as high blocks nwrd mvmnt.

Next system on tap to spread pcpn into the region is currently
spinning acrs the nrn Plains. High cirrus wl begin to appch swrn
sxns twd daybreak with winds veering around to serly direction in
advance of sfc bndry. Overrunning pcpn lkly to start by mid-mrng Sun
and spread north and east fm there thru the aftn hrs.

As pcpn begins entire airmass wl be blo 0C with ice in the cld. As
the aftn progresses into evng, expect that dendrite lyr wl lose
moisture leaving drizzle/freezing drizzle in its wake twd the late
aftn hrs. Snow drg the aftn looks to be fm 1-3 inches bfr cld loses
ice and turns to more of a drizzle scenario. Wl allow later shifts
to refine timing of frzg drizzle and issue winter weather advisory
for tomorrow afternoon/evening. Expect that high temps on Sun wl top
out right around normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Snow will be ending early Sunday evening and remaining
precipitation will transition to freezing drizzle with less a
tenth an inch of ice accumulation. The decaying warm occlusion
will allow cold air damming to persist through the night. With
a good supply of low level moisture...and none of it at levels
colder than -10C...freezing drizzle seems like the most likely
outcome. The exception will be towards the coast where
temperatures will be above freezing on Sunday night. No diurnal
curves were necessary for Sunday night temperatures as readings
will tend to rise overnight. The freezing precipitation may
prompt advisories rather than the modest snowfall from this
system. On Monday morning, a drying southwest wind will scour
the frontal inversion and high pressure will build eastward from
the Ohio River Valley region. Cold air advection aloft will
prompt gusty winds and cumulus development by afternoon with
isolated snow showers possible. After the relatively mild lows
Monday morning, temperatures will rise into the 40s for most of
the area by early Monday afternoon. Moisture will refreeze
Monday night as temperatures fall into the 20s, but the air mass
is not particularly cold and highs will return to the upper 30s
and 40s on Tuesday. More gusty NW winds and cumulus development
are anticipated by Tuesday afternoon. The high pressure ridge
will crest over the area later Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak clipper system will affect the forecast area Tuesday
night into Wednesday. At this time, will go with no more than
slight chance pops and mostly cloudy skies. It`s a small-scale
system with little moisture and little model consensus.

The relatively mild pattern will continue as a zonal pattern
transitions to a blocking pattern dominated by a large upper
level high retrograding from the north Atlantic into eastern
Canada. This high will cause a moist and mild flow of maritime
air into the area by later in the week. The high looks like it
could suppress a vertically stacked low pressure system to the
south of the forecast area later in the week. However, in
dealing with the evolution of a cut-off low at nearly 144 hours
out, it`s certainly possible it could drift further north into
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours as low VFR cigs dissipate with
building high pressure around 00z. Next system affect BGR and
BHB very late in the TAF period with a return of VFR cigs after
16z. NW winds gust to near 16-20kts this afternoon bfr
diminishing this evening.

SHORT TERM: IFR cigs and vis are expected Sunday night with snow
changing to freezing drizzle. VFR conditions return for all
terminals on Monday into Thursday. There is a chance of IFR vis
in snow north of HUL Tuesday night. Chances for widespread MVFR
cigs increase towards Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will increase to aoa 25kts after 06z tonight
for the outer waters and for the intracoastal zones twd 12z thus
an SCA has been issued thru the day Sunday. Winds may approach
gale conditions late in the afternoon for a brief period of
time. Seas will build late in the afternoon in serly swell.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions will continue Sunday evening and end
later in the night. The next marine threat will occur towards
Friday into Saturday when a gale is possible.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar/Hewitt
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Farrar/Hewitt/MCW
Marine...Farrar/Hewitt/MCW



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