Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 020114
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
914 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
914 PM UPDATE...CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH
STRATUS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM RANGE FROM AS COOL AS
35F AT ESTCOURT STATION TO THE MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND
DOWN EAST MAINE. WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES...AND WILL NEED TO LOWER THE MINIMUM TEMPS A BIT IN A
FEW OF THE COLDER NW VALLEYS. OTHERWISE THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DECK OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT
THIS TIME AS THE AREA REMAINS SITUATED IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A
LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH SLOWLY BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. THE CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF ACROSS THE CROWN OF
MAINE AND THE TREND THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FOR THIS
CLEARING LINE TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH WITH CARIBOU AND PRESQUE
ISLE SEEING SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE THE DAY`S END. SOUTH OF HOULTON
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST.

THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. NORTH OF HOULTON, WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE AT
LEAST PARTLY CLEAR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG TO
DEVELOP. AREAS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED IN WITH STRATUS
WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE
COAST.

FOR THURSDAY, FOG AND ANY LOW STRATUS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF IN THE
NORTH WITH EVEN SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER SUNNIER SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND DOMINATES AREA WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST MAY PROVIDE SOME
THICKER CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. FURTHER INLAND...FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S
NEAR THE COAST WHERE MORE WIND AND CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST. AFTER
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS BURNS OFF FRIDAY MORNING...AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL-DAY CLOUDINESS WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO THE OFFSHORE LOW. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CONCERN IS
THAT AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THIS OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE
WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SOME
DRIZZLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HANCOCK...SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT...AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS
COUNTIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOW 60S BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AGAIN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH
DOWNEAST MAINE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN UP ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
REACHING A HALF INCH TO AN INCH DOWNEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
CORRIDOR OF RIDGING WILL THEN BRING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON. WE WILL THEN BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY LARGE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING COOL
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY. COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS DOWNEAST AREAS BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FOR KBHB AND KBGR EXPECT MAINLY MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT
IN LOW STRATUS WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY
AS THE CLOUDS BREAK UP. VFR TO THE NORTH OF KHUL LATE THIS
EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MAY
LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR AT THE TERMINALS. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT BY 12-13Z THU.

SHORT TERM: SUNRISE FOG AND IFR CIGS ARE A THREAT FRIDAY MORNING.
ALL AREAS SHOULD BE VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IFR CIGS
AND VIS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE
AT NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DOWNEAST ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THU. THE WIND WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF
THE NE. THE WIND WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THURSDAY HOWEVER SEAS
WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE BY THIS TIME AS WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE IN
THE 5 TO 6 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AND MAY
REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE SEPTEMBER CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE IS NOW AVAILABLE AT CXUS 51 KCAR OR PWMCLMCAR. THE SUMMARY
IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CAR

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/FITZSIMMONS/MCW
MARINE...CB/FITZSIMMONS/MCW
CLIMATE...CB








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