Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCHS 300150
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
950 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...CROSSING THE AREA LATE. FORECAST MODELS VARY ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH MOST FAVOR A PATTERN WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO INLAND ZONES THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING BY 06Z. INSTABILITY IS
QUITE MARGINAL WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOW BUT CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE BEACHES.

WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...EVENTUALLY ABSORBING
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN
UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MID-LEVELS WARM... A
STRONGER CAP WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THUS...WE MAINLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
KSAV AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE EARLY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO A
MODEST SURGE OF S/SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN
WINDS WILL TEND TO VEER AND DIMINISH INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS TOUCHING 5 FT
BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT MAY REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST


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