Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 140941
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
341 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

Rain chances are on the increase this afternoon and tonight as the
front comes down, but mainly due to a strong upper level jet
providing good diffluence and deep omega. However, for today think
the better chance, albeit slight, will be over the SE areas where
the better moisture and lift are. For tonight, am going to go
categorical POPs southern areas with likely most other locations
(except extreme NE and NW). Winds will increase tonight and Friday
looks to be a wet and cool day (blustery near coast) with little to
no sunshine and rain likely over the southern half of the area.
Better rain amounts on Friday however, will be over the gulf waters
and extreme SE inland areas as moisture is better there but also
some isentropic upglide at the 305K-310K level is indicated. After
temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s today will have
temperatures in the lower to mid 50s on Friday (could have some
partial clearing NW late in the afternoon). It is possible that, if
the rain continues especially southern inland areas that
temperatures may not even reach 50F.

&&

.MARINE (Today through Friday)...

After coordination with surrounding offices, will go with a SCA for
tonight as confidence is high on its occurrence. Will start SCA at
07Z and continue it until 18Z for bays and 00Z for the gulfmex (may
need to be a tad longer for the offshore after 00Z Saturday). There
is a slight chance for frequent gale force gusts on Friday (will see
some gusts) but think it will not be frequent and/or long enough to
warrant a Gale Watch at this time (gusts are in the 3rd period...did
coordinate with other offices). Rain chances increase tonight and
continue on Friday with periods of rain and a possible thunderstorm
or two given the weak instability and strong upper jet.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...

Rain chances are expected to briefly wane Fri night from north to
south, but then increase once again early Sat morning in response to
a long wave trough approaching the region. Models prog the upper jet
to approach the area with the RRQ in a favorable position across S
TX by Sat afternoon. This will provide increased lift with the
possibility of a few TSRAs. Due to the lack of instability/CAPE, did
not want to go more than a slight chc of thunderstorms, but did go
likely with SHRAs. By Sat night, the upper level energy is progged
to exit to the NE with pops decreasing from west to northeast. A
slight chc of lingering showers will remain over the waters through
Sun. Superblend output showed increasing pops Mon/Tue as another
stronger long wave trough approaches the region. This also results
in a brief return of onshore flow Sun night. For now, did not go
quite as high on pops as the superblend but did introduce chc of
showers across the eastern CWA by Mon. The chc of precip continues
into Tue due to the upper system and another cold front. Timing and
strength of this cold front is still uncertain as model solns
continue to differ from run to run. For now, am showing winds
shifting to the north Mon, but the main surge coming through Mon
night/Tue with north winds slightly strengthening. Not much in the
way of CAA, but the airmass will be slightly drier with rain chcs
ending from west to east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    70  48  52  45  58  /  10  80  70  30  60
Victoria          69  45  55  42  56  /  10  60  20  10  60
Laredo            70  47  52  44  53  /  10  80  60  40  60
Alice             72  46  52  44  56  /  10  80  60  30  60
Rockport          68  49  53  48  59  /  10  70  60  10  60
Cotulla           68  46  56  43  54  /  10  60  30  10  60
Kingsville        72  48  53  44  57  /  20  80  70  40  60
Navy Corpus       69  53  54  50  61  /  10  80  70  30  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM CST Friday For the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to noon CST Friday For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port
     O`Connor.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM



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