Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 282041
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
341 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night)...
Rainfall is expected to become more isolated on Friday, as
slightly drier air starts to filter into the region. The upper
ridge tries to build back some, but not enough really and there is
still some hint of an inverted trough proximate to the region.
However, water vapor imagery is showing the upper trough closer to
the Bay of Campeche, which puts our area on the wrong side of the
upper trough/TUTT. Also, the water vapor is depicting drier air
moving into the area. Thus, am expecting rain chances to diminish
after tonight. More coverage on the radar this afternoon than
expected, and thus have increased POPs this afternoon. Trend has
been that once the storms have impacted an area, the atmosphere
stabilizes rather fast. Thus, am expecting activity to end by 02Z
or so, with mainly isolated activity after 7 PM. (Will modify ZFP
wording for convection now). Thus, will only continue with
isolated activity for the evening package. If updates needed, then
we will update.
With quieter weather and less clouds, should warm up again on
Friday. With drier air and lighter winds, then should see slightly
cooler temperatures Friday night than tonight (or this morning).
Used a blend of guidance.
.MARINE (Tonight through Friday night)...
Should see even less convection for the next three periods. Could
have a couple of showers toward morning, with isolated activity on
Friday. No rainfall expected Friday night. Winds at times will be
around 15 knots over the nearshore waters tonight, with less wind
expected Friday night.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Still expecting enough weakness in the subtropical ridge across S
TX to allow for at least an isolated shower or two Saturday
afternoon across primarily the Victoria area. Significant drying
aloft is prog to take place on Sunday with the H5 ridge center
reestablishing itself across Texas for early next week. Result will
be increasingly drier and hotter conditions through next week (as we
approach our climatologically hottest time of the year). Have gone at
or above guidance for max temps by early/mid part of next work week.
Subtropical ridge may begin to shift NE by late in the forecast
period with only a slightly reduction in max temps with any deep
tropical moisture not expected to enter the region until beyond the
current forecast period.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 79 95 78 95 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
Victoria 76 96 75 96 77 / 10 20 10 20 10
Laredo 78 101 78 103 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
Alice 76 99 74 101 76 / 10 20 10 10 10
Rockport 82 92 81 94 81 / 10 20 10 10 10
Cotulla 77 100 75 102 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 77 98 76 98 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
Navy Corpus 81 92 80 93 81 / 10 20 10 10 10