Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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266
FXUS64 KCRP 110329 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
929 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A few slight changes were made to the forecast for the remainder
of the night. A coastal trough off the Middle and Lower Texas
coast and some isentropic lifting is responsible for the light
rain and drizzle across the area. Based on radar trends, low end
pops were spread farther back to the west and a small area of 30
pops introduced across the Victoria Crossroads. Abundant cloud
cover will hold temperatures steady (perhaps even climb a degree
or two) tonight with lows in the upper 40s out west to 50s
elsewhere. Fog will be a threat later on tonight into early Sunday
morning. Some guidance is suggesting dense fog may form, but will
continue to monitor latest conditions.

Finally, winds have increased to around 20 knots at Buoys 19 and
20 along with seas around 7 feet. Because of this, a small craft
advisory was issued earlier for the offshore Gulf Waters and will
be in effect until 12z.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 550 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Updated for 00z aviation.

AVIATION...

Wide range of flight categories at the terminals currently with
IFR at ALI/LRD, MVFR at CRP, and VFR at VCT. The general trend
will be for ceilings to continue to lower with some fog mixed in
at times. IFR with some possible LIFR conditions will persist
during the overnight into Sunday morning. LRD may return to VFR by
the afternoon, but ALI/VCT/CRP should only gradually improve and
remain at MVFR levels through the rest of the period. Northerly
to northeasterly winds will become more light and variable for a
time this evening and overnight, but eventually become southerly
by Sunday afternoon. A few gusts in excess of 20 knots will be
possible at ALI/CRP/VCT after 18z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Expect the quasi-stationary upper pattern over the CONUS to
persist during the period per NAM/GFS/ECMWF deterministic output.
Deterministic output also consistent with respect to the advection
of 700-300mb Q-vector divergence/subsidence over the CWA/MSA
Sunday. Expect isentropic lift/coastal trough to contribute to
patchy light rain/isolated showers over the ERN CWA/MSA Tonight
through early Sunday. Increasing drying aloft anticipated Sunday
afternoon/Sunday Night in response to foregoing subsidence. The
combination of near surface moisture/drying aloft will contribute
to fog over the CWA and over the Bays/Nearshore Waters 06-12
Monday consistent with SREF visibility probabilities.

MARINE (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Anticipate that the coastal trough will contribute to isolated
showers Tonight/early Sunday. Deterministic NAM and SREF ensemble
mean wind suggest that onshore flow will increase Tonight and
reach at least SCEC over the MSA with SCA conditions possible
over the Offshore Coastal Waters. Decided to forecast SCEC
conditions for all of the Coastal Zones Tonight. N/NE flow near
the Coast Today and approximately S flow Sunday less favorable
for rip currents notwithstanding favorable sea state at 42020.
Although the water levels have remained below 2ft msl at Bob Hall
Pier...waves reached the dunes at the National Seashore Yesterday
and near the dunes this afternoon. However...a transition to SE/S
flow later Tonight/Sunday may decrease the risk for 2ft msl water
levels during high tide Tonight and Sunday. At least patchy fog
anticipated for Sunday Night over the Bays/Nearshore Waters owing
to the expected combination of near surface moisture/drying
aloft.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

A warming trend due to an onshore flow is expected Monday through
Wed. This will lead to a slight increase in low level moisture and a
slight chance of showers across the waters and eastern CWA. Models
have been inconsistent with a cold front progged for sometime mid
week. The cold front is progged to be weak and given a generally
zonal to somewhat WNW flow aloft, will have a hard time pushing
through S TX. For now, kept with the superblend output which shows
veering winds to the NE Wed night into Thu morning. May also see a
slight chance to chance of shra`s with the frontal boundary Wed
night and continuing into Thu. Models show minimal cooling behind
the front. Winds quickly return to onshore and maintain a slight chc
of shras into the weekend. Am not expecting any major hazards during
the extended at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    55  73  64  77  65  /  20  10  10  10  10
Victoria          53  72  64  76  61  /  30  20  10  10  10
Laredo            49  73  56  77  59  /  10  10   0  10  10
Alice             52  75  62  80  63  /  20  10  10  10  10
Rockport          58  70  66  74  65  /  20  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           49  69  52  75  57  /  10  10   0  10  10
Kingsville        53  75  63  80  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       58  71  66  74  66  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday For the following
     zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM



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