Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 020822
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
322 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS...WITH PWAT VALUES
FROM 1.4-1.6 INCHES...OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING. 03Z SREF ALONG WITH
00Z 4KM NMM AND ARW MODELS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE
DAY. SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY IN THESE AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND RIDGE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY...THE
HIGHS WILL BE 1-3 DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND MAY BE BARELY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
AID IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY EASTERN AND COASTAL AREAS. OVERALL...HAVE GONE
ON THE LOWER END OF POPS FOR SAT/SUN AS ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ALLUDED TO ABOVE /AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WORK WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRENGTHENS AND DEEP MOISTURE DECREASES. HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
YEAR SO FAR ARE A GOOD BET FOR PART OF NEXT WEEK. BREEZIER
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR /THAN AS OF LATE/ GIVEN STRONGER
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THERMAL GRADIENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  76  92  77  92  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          91  75  92  76  92  /  10  10  10  10  30
LAREDO            96  77  99  76  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             93  75  95  75  95  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  80  91  80  91  /  10  10  10  10  30
COTULLA           94  75  97  75  96  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        92  76  94  77  94  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       90  79  90  80  90  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM


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