Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 271829
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1229 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A few minor updates to the forecast this morning. Mostly for
hourly temperatures and dewpoints, especially across the western
zones. Skies have cleared out nicely allowing ample sunshine to
heat the dry ground into the low-90s and given the early clearing
we have raised temperatures a couple degrees for highs today.
Still a bit unsure if the dryline across the Big Bend region makes
it into the Rio Grande Plains this afternoon as the southerly flow
ahead of it is a bit strong for it to overtake. None-the-less
there is a lot of dry air aloft to be able to mix down during peak
heating so we lowered dewpoints. A few more bubbly looking CU over
the Gulf waters heading towards the north, but forcing and moisture
convergence are lacking so we keep the region dry today.

18Z aviation cycle below.

&&

AVIATION...

Today...VFR. Just some lingering pockets of MVFR at KALI/KVCT but
these should lift to VFR over the next hour. Southerly flow with a
few gusts to around 20 knots possible through the afternoon
hours. High confidence.

Tonight...MVFR/IFR/LIFR. Continued low-level moisture streaming
into the region will allow conditions to quickly deteriorate late
this evening across a majority of our terminals. Stronger low-
level jet, around 40 knots, is expected to develop after midnight
across our eastern terminals, excluding KLRD. While we are not
forecasting LLWS at this time, it is possible LLWS may be needed
for at least KCRP/KVCT by sunrise so we will continue to assess
the trends over the next couple of cycles. The stronger winds
aloft should help to keep fog at bay for the most part though
pockets of IFR vsbys are possible at KALI/KVCT tonight. Overall
looking like a mostly stratus/cigs restriction tonight. Medium to
high confidence.

Tuesday Morning...MVFR. Should see the vsbys and cigs improve
through the mid-morning hours back into the low-MVFR range.
Stronger southerly winds expected with gusts developing by late
morning in the mid-20 knots range. High confidence.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

A progressive upper flow pattern will continue through the period.
The short wave trough over the Ozarks early this morning will move
through the Tennessee Valley today. The next short wave trough
will move into the Desert Southwest this evening and across the
southern Rockies Tuesday. Better moisture advection will remain to
the northeast of the region today and removed mention of PoPs for
the Victoria Crossroads. Low level flow around 25-30 knots should
keep stratus and patchy fog over the region early this morning but
patchy dense fog was occurring over eastern Victoria County.
Clouds will diminish by this afternoon with maximum temperatures
reaching 10-15 degrees above normal. Modest southerly winds will
keep temperatures up tonight with clouds slowly increasing over
the inland areas overnight again. There will be a possibility of
very isolated streamer showers over the northern Coastal Bend to
the Victoria Crossroads Tuesday morning. Otherwise, another very
warm day will be in store with temperatures slightly warmer than
Monday. Winds speeds will be slightly higher on Tuesday as the
pressure gradient increases due to low pressure strengthening over
West Texas in advance of the short wave trough.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...

Sufficient moisture and instability across the Victoria Crossroads
late Tue night will combine with an embedded upper level short wave
to produce isol SHRA`s. There is also a brief window when winds are
low enough to allow patchy fog to develop, but primarily low stratus
is expected across S TX. Winds will relax ahead of a cold front that
is progged to move through S TX Wed morning. Models have been
consistently showing a cold front, but have varied in timing from
Tue night to Wed. For now went with the Wed morning time frame.
Ahead of the frontal bdry, moisture is progged to pool across mainly
the eastern CWA. The combination of this moisture, strong low level
convergence with the front, an unstable airmass and an embedded
upper level short wave will bring a chance of SHRA/TSRA`s to the
eastern portions of the CWA Wed morning. The rain chcs shift east as
the front pushes offshore. Cooler and drier conditions are expected
by Wed night through Thu. Sfc winds are expected to become more
easterly Fri with overrunning conditions developing and bringing a
chc of RA and SHRA`s. Better instability Sat will lead to TSRA`s.
Rain chcs then shift east through Sun.

Marine...

Advisory conditions are expected by Wed afternoon as the cold front
moves into the Gulf of Mexico and a strong northerly wind
develops in its wake. Mod to strong winds are expected through the
end of the week into the Weekend with advisory conditions through
much of that time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    85  71  88  68  81  /  10  10  10  10  20
Victoria          82  68  84  67  79  /  10  10  10  20  30
Laredo            94  68  94  66  83  /  10   0  10  10  10
Alice             90  68  92  66  83  /  10  10  10  10  20
Rockport          81  72  82  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  30
Cotulla           90  66  92  63  82  /  10   0  10  10  10
Kingsville        89  70  91  67  82  /  10  10  10  10  20
Navy Corpus       81  72  85  69  76  /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...SHORT TERM


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