Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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540
FXUS64 KCRP 240549 AAC
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1249 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...see aviation section for 06z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Cirrus canopy from strong convection west of the Rio
Grande covers much of South Texas early this morning. Area of
convection showing a more eastward component to movement as
the storms weakened. Lightning strikes in the downstream anvil
area could affect LRD area for another hour or two but convection
is expected to keep a diminishing trend. MVFR ceilings were
occurring over the inland coastal plains to the northern Coastal
Bend. Expect MVFR ceiling will become prevalent by 08-09z across
most of the area. MVFR vsbys along with IFR ceilings will be
possible at ALI/VCT from 09-13z. Strong mid level inversion will
keep moisture/clouds trapped beneath it similar to yesterday.
Ceilings will lift to around 2500 feet by mid morning but hold
through mid afternoon. VFR conditions are expected from late
afternoon through early evening. MVFR ceilings will return to the
coastal plains by 03-04z Wednesday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1109 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...Adjusted forecast to add generally less than 20 POPs
for the Western CWA until 09z Tuesday as compromise between upper
jet dynamics which might maintain convection west of the Rio
Grande which could enter the Western CWA...and increasing CIN
values (most recent LAPS analysis depicts values above 200 J/kg
over Webb County) which is expected to preclude surface-based
convection. From another prespective with the same low POP
conclusion...only elevated convection seems possible (owing to
upper forcing yet high CIN) yet moisture limited aloft (LAPS
analysis sounding over LRD.)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  89  77  88  78  /  10  10  20  40  30
Victoria          77  88  76  86  76  /  10  10  20  50  30
Laredo            78  98  78  98  76  /  10  20  40  40  50
Alice             78  92  77  90  77  /  10  10  20  50  50
Rockport          79  85  78  85  79  /  10  10  20  40  30
Cotulla           77  94  76  92  74  /  10  20  50  50  50
Kingsville        78  92  77  90  78  /  10  10  20  40  30
Navy Corpus       79  86  79  85  79  /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



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