Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 230154 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
854 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. WEAK ECHOES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
UPPER JET PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...ONLY HAVE
20 POPS GOING AND HRRR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK ECHOES NEAR THE AREA
TONIGHT SO WILL NOT REMOVE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT SINCE MOST
CLOUDS ARE EITHER WEST OF NORTH OF AREA. LEFT REMAINDER OF
FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW...AS OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MAY NEED TO TONE THE WINDS DOWN FOR THE
COASTAL WATER FORECAST SINCE MOST AREAS ARE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN PSBLY SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AT THE INLAND SITES LATE
TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MSTR WILL INCRS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN
SOME CLOUDS IN THE 10-15K FOOT LAYER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...PER THE GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
FALLING...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONLY HAVE 5-10 POPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS FARTHER W AND S
ACROSS S TX. ONLY WEATHER BEYOND TODAY MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG THU MORNING BUT WITH VISIBILITIES AT 4SM OR BETTER...SO DO NOT
HAVE FOG IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS...SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MIN
TEMPS. A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD EAST WIND ACROSS S TX THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING VRB...BUT GENERALLY NE.
THEN A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON THU AND THU NIGHT. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A MODERATE E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. A MOD RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER IF WINDS DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED...THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE LOWER ON THU.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE...BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH
AXIS STARTS DIGGING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND SENDING A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO TEXAS. MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON TIMING AND LOCATION
BEFORE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE SWIFTLY
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS JUST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED AND THEN WASHING OUT IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. ALSO...THE GFS IS NO LONGER SHOWING THE SPORADIC
STRONG LOW/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE GULF AS IT WAS TRYING
TO SPIN UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...RATHER KEEPING A WEAK/BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. FOR THE TIME
KEPT POPS OUT OF THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
ISOLATED CHANCE AT LEAST FOR THE DAY 8 PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES BASED ON TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT GETS
CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  84  64  84  63  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          60  85  59  86  60  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            68  86  66  88  65  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             64  86  62  87  62  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          69  82  67  83  66  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           65  86  63  89  63  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        65  86  64  86  62  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       72  83  69  82  68  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM





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