Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 231011 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
511 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AS VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4
MILE AND SHOULD STAY TIL ABOUT 9 AM. FARTHER SOUTH...THINK
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR DENSE FOG.
PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST
THURSDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH A
WEAK JET STREAK COULD HAVE CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE RIVER
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT BEFORE STRONG CAP WEAKENS AND ENDS ACTIVITY. JET
MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AND COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN-MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. STILL WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA AREA
THURSDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...LOOKS TO BE WARM AND
HUMID...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. AM GENERALLY GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCEC FOR
SOUTHERN BAYS AND TONIGHT OVER THE GULFMEX AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE WATERS. FLOW WEAKENS ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS MOISTURE
AXIS STAYS INLAND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...RATHER ZONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MINOR H5 VORT MAXES
ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS PROG TO
STALL ACROSS EWX CWA THURS NIGHT WITH ISO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION
/SLIGHT CHANCE AT THAT/ WILL OCCUR SAT EVENING ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AS SLIGHTLY MORE POTENT H5 VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AS 85KT H25 JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE AREA. ATTM CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ
DEVELOPS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DROP BACK TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LACK OF FORCING AND DRYING
OF ATMOSPHERE OCCURS. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH A THERMAL
TROUGH/QUASIDRYLINE EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS. HAVE GONE WELL
ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CLOSE TO ECX
GUIDANCE. A DRY COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR
OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE /PWATS LOWERING TO AROUND 1/2 INCH/. VERY WARM
TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY/WED GIVEN STRONG SUN
ANGLE...DRY AIRMASS...AND VERY WARM H9 TEMPS. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND
OF GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR TUES/WED DUE SURROUNDING CWA
CONSISTENCY...BUT MAY NEED TO WARM TEMPS SOME IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            95  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM






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