220
FXUS64 KCRP 080820
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
320 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Key Messages:

 A Heat Advisory is in effect today across Inland Kleberg, Inland
Nueces, and Jim Wells Counties

 Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts with near record
high temperatures Thursday

South Texas will remain under a quaszi-zonal flow aloft for the
short term period with a mid-level low well to our north and a mid-
level high over western Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, an
approaching dryline will result in light and variable winds from S
to W today with onshore flow returning tonight. Winds will be light
and variable Thursday as a weak cold front approaches the region.
Elevated heat indices will result in dangerous heat Wednesday and
Thursday.

Clearing skies will help surface temperatures rise and combined with
low-level humidity will result in a pretty high (60-90%) chance for
dangerous heat indices exceeding 110 degrees according to the HREF
ensemble for Wednesday. Thursday, the HREF has a moderate 40-55%
chance for heat indices greater than 110. A Heat Advisory has been
issued for Nueces, Jim Wells and Kleberg Counties from 18z Wednesday
- 00z Thursday. Locales outside of the Advisory area can expect Heat
Indices of 105 to 109 both days for a few hours in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Key Messages:

 Weak cold front Friday morning

 Low (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday, increasing
to a low to moderate (30-40%) chance Saturday through Monday

We open up the long term with some relief from the heat in sight. A
cold front will be moving south across the state Thursday night into
Friday morning. The latest suite of guidance still has some timing
differences regarding FROPA. For now, it seems like a mid morning
passage on Friday. However, the GFS brings it through by daybreak
while the NAM12 is about 6-10 hours slower. Despite above normal
moisture in place, our rain chances don`t look too great on Friday.
Will carry a slight chance, generally across the Brush Country, as a
H7 vort max ejects across the Rio Grande. The front looks to stall
across our southern tier of counties or perhaps just to our south
Friday night.

On Saturday, this boundary will retreat back to the north-northwest
as a warm front. PWATs will climb to near 2" over the weekend in the
wake of the warm front. A series of passing shortwaves will allow
for a 20-30% chance of showers and storms on Saturday and a 20-40%
chance of Sunday. As we head into the work week, the main trough
will swing across the Plains. As the trough moves through, a surge
of high pressure will nudge the boundary back our way. It`s unclear
how far south the boundary will drift at this time. Therefore, only
have a 20-35% chance of showers and storms on Monday. We hang on to
some low end PoPs through the middle of next week as the upper
levels remain fairly active. However, moisture may be limited and
could hinder our chances.

A much needed cool down is in store this weekend as highs looks to
top out in the mid 80s. Unfortunately, this won`t last long as temps
quickly rebound by early next week with highs settling back into the
upper 80s to around 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

MVFR ceilings are currently in place across CRP and ALI, with IFR
ceilings hanging around VCT. VFR conditions remain at LRD and COT. IFR
ceilings and visibilities will creep into the remainder of the
eastern terminals before daybreak, with TEMPO LIFR ceilings
possible in VCT. TEMPO MVFR conditions also possible over the
Brush Country tonight. These lower ceilings and visibilities
should lift to become MVFR and VFR by late tomorrow morning.
Southeasterly winds will shift to become northwesterly and
eventually northeasterly out west late morning into Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Weak to moderate onshore winds can be expected Tonight through
Thursday night along with some patchy fog. A cold front will move
offshore Friday morning. Winds will shift to the northeast and
strengthen to moderate levels Friday through Saturday morning.
Winds begin to shift back to the east-southeast through Saturday
afternoon. There is a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday, increasing to a medium 30 to 40 percent
chance Sunday through Monday as a series of upper level
disturbances pass through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          91  74  94  73 /   0   0  10   0
Laredo           107  78 109  76 /   0   0   0   0
Alice            100  75 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          87  77  88  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          103  77 104  76 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        98  76 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       88  78  90  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ241>243.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....TC/95
AVIATION...KRS