Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 232322
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
522 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017
Updated for 00Z Aviation.
VFR conditions continue through the period for all sites. Some
indications that fog could develop around sunrise at VCT site, but
confidence is very low in this at this time, so will not include
in TAFS. Moisture return would have to be very rapid overnight,
and winds have not shifted as quickly as models would have
indicated so far. Will see gusty winds develop during the day on
Tuesday, but otherwise quiet conditions remain.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night)...
After a chilly start to the day, temperatures have climbed into
the middle/upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. The dry airmass
remains over South Texas with relative humidity 15 to 25 percent
inland and 25 to 40 percent over the immediate coastal locations.
Winds speeds, however, have not been excessive which has kept the
overall fire danger threat low.
Onshore flow will will begin to strengthen late tonight as lee
side trough develops over the High Plains. Low temperatures
tonight will be in the lower to middle 50s with lower 60s along
the immediate coast.
Upper trough will move out of the southwest into the Plains on
Tuesday. Winds will increase to SCA levels, especially over the
offshore Gulf Waters. High will be on the warm side Tuesday as
dry 850mb southwest flow mixes down to the surface. Temps will
likely hit 90 degrees over the Rio Grande Plains/Brush Country
with 80s elsewhere.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
A front is expected to move across the MSA early Wednesday. Limited
moisture should preclude activity over the CWA yet isolated activity
may occur over the MSA. Anticipate SCA conditions over the Offshore
MSA after frontal passage. Concur with the GFS/ECMWF deterministic
that the upper system over the Plains at the beginning of the
period will lift NE followed by an upper low digging SWD across
the Midwest...which is predicted to contribute to another fropa
over the CWA/MSA Friday night/Saturday morning...while another
upper system develops to the west over NRN Mexico/SWRN CONUS then
moves slowly EWD. GFS deterministic predicts isentropic
lift/lowering condensation pressure deficits Friday night through
early Sunday(at least at 300K) and anticipate light rain/isolated
showers over the CWA/MSA during that period. Cooler/Colder after
the foregoing frontal passages yet low temperatures over the CWA
early morning Thursday/Sunday/Monday not lower than the 40s.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 56 87 61 74 49 / 0 0 10 10 0
Victoria 53 83 59 72 43 / 0 0 10 10 0
Laredo 56 90 55 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alice 54 88 59 74 47 / 0 0 10 0 0
Rockport 59 79 61 71 50 / 0 0 10 10 0
Cotulla 52 90 54 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 54 88 60 76 48 / 0 0 10 10 0
Navy Corpus 60 81 61 71 53 / 0 0 10 10 10