Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 182334
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF ALI AND CRP TAF SITES...WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT VCT TAF SITE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE FOR ALI AND LRD
TAF SITES TOWARD MORNING. ANOTHER DAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...AGAIN THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE VCT
REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE VICTORIA REGION...NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
CONTINUES TO STREAM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE MOVES AROUND A HIGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BRUSH COUNTRY
MOSTLY DRY...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING AS ONE MOVES SOUTH AND
WEST. DECREASE POPS TO ISOLATED TOMORROW NIGHT AS PWATS DROP
SLIGHTLY...BUT MAINTAINING SCATTERED OVER THE GULF. RAISED LOWS
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND DECREASED TOMORROW HIGH BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OVER VCT DUE TO RAINFALL COVERAGE TODAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. RAIN SHOULD BECOME SPOTTIER AND MORE DIURNAL WITH MORNING
STREAMER SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ACTIVITY.

MODELS MAY BE STARTING TOWARD A CONSENSUS ON FRONTAL ACTIVITY FOR
NEXT WEEK...TRENDING TOWARD STALLING OUT THE FRONT NORTH OF THE CWFA
AS DRIVING FORCE BEHIND FRONTAL MOVEMENT APPEARS WEAKER AND
DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH RUN TO RUN. THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SEPTEMBER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURES IS STILL VERY LOW BUT HAVE
ADJUSTED FORECAST PACKAGE TO TREND TOWARD THIS EVENTUALITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  91  76  91  75  /  30  40  20  20  20
VICTORIA          76  88  74  93  75  /  60  50  20  30  10
LAREDO            77  96  76  96  78  /  20  30  20  30  20
ALICE             76  93  74  93  75  /  30  30  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          78  90  78  90  78  /  40  50  20  20  20
COTULLA           76  93  75  96  76  /  30  30  20  30  10
KINGSVILLE        77  93  75  93  75  /  20  30  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  89  79  91  79  /  30  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION





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