Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 271450 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
850 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE
AREAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE PROG TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS/STRENGTHENS. ALSO
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY A CATEGORY FOR ALL AREAS GIVEN OVERCAST
SKIES. FINALLY...ISSUED A RIP CURRENT ADVISORY FOR ST JOSEPHS
ISLAND SOUTHWARD TO PADRE ISLAND NATL SEASHORE FOR EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NORTHERLY AT AREA BEACHES THIS
MORNING...THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
BY LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER
EASTERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SWELL WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY COASTAL FLOODING
ISSUES GIVEN ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDES. EVEN IF TIDES RUN 1 FOOT
ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 2 FT
MSL. CAVEAT IS IF SWELLS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SURGE WATER INTO
THE DUNES...BUT AT THIS TIME THAT CHANCE IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST
SITES AS AN OVERRUNING PATTERN SETS UP OVER SOUTH TEXAS. VCT TAF
SITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
COULD SEE VFR CIGS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. VCT DECREASES TO
MVFR AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHILE OTHER SITES LIKELY IFR WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
FOR CRP SITE...BUT CHANCE IS LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST IS A COASTAL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TODAY. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY INDICATION OF THE TROUGH SO FAR EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THIS
TROUGH DEVELOPS IT WILL LEAD TO AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION. PWAT VALUES LOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL START TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
INLAND. BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT CHANCE OF RAIN TO SPREAD INLAND.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL TODAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT WITH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. TEMPS WILL NOT
COOL MUCH TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COASTAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...SHIFTING BEST RAIN CHANCES TO ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A COASTAL TROUGH
REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
SLOW PROGRESSION NORTHWARD SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. WITH MODEL RUNS CONTINUING A SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH
THIS TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED POPS HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING POPS SUNDAY. H85
TEMPS WARM WITH FLOW COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THIS...CHANCES FOR
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE FURTHER DRYING OCCURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
PEAKING INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EAST...TO UPPER 80S AND
POSSIBLY NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST.

BY TUESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY. THIS WILL
DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LEADING TO
INCREASED ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT EAST
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THIS FRONT WITH
THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...BROUGHT THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLDER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR LAGGING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  51  63  58  77  /  30  60  50  50  20
VICTORIA          51  43  57  53  75  /  10  20  40  50  30
LAREDO            46  42  56  51  79  /  30  50  30  20  10
ALICE             51  48  61  58  79  /  30  60  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          52  52  62  59  73  /  20  50  50  50  20
COTULLA           45  40  52  48  75  /  30  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        53  51  63  60  79  /  30  60  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       54  54  63  59  73  /  30  60  50  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79





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