Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 241809
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
109 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Numerous boundaries across the region providing the lift needed to
tap into the super moist airmass. PWATs off our 12Z sounding was
1.8" with GOES Sounder data showing closer to 2.0" around Victoria
and points farther northeast. Latest MSAS analysis has the best
moisture convergence across the northern Coastal Bend westward
towards Beeville. This is where a majority of the activity has
been occurring which has been slow moving with less than 25 knots
of flow throughout the column. The sea breeze is also starting to
become more active at this time with its activity pushing inland
during the afternoon hours. Any of these storms will be capable to
dumping quite a bit water in a short amount of time.

Afternoon temperatures will be very tricky with the numerous
showers and storms around. Tried to keep trends along the lines of
the LAV guidance.

18Z aviation discussion below.

&&


AVIATION...

Today...Mostly VFR. In areas of rain and thunderstorms conditions
will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR so we continue TEMPOS at most
terminals. KCRP may be the only terminal unscathed today as the
sea breeze moved in a bit earlier than expected and helped to
stabilize them in terms of convection. Medium confidence overall.

Tonight...VFR/MVFR. Expecting the shower activity to wane by late
evening with continued light southeasterly winds. This will bring
in another area of MVFR stratus across a majority of the
terminals after midnight. Medium to high confidence.

Sunday...Mostly VFR. Winds back a bit more towards the east but
moisture levels high. More scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms possible tomorrow afternoon, after the current TAF
cycle ends. Medium to high confidence.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 442 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...

The upper ridge will continue to drift westward during the period
with a mid level shear axis expected to be quasi-stationary along
an axis from southeast Texas to the western Brush Country. Will
still see heat index values from 105 to 109 over the southern
portions of the Coastal Bend and Brush Country today, but the
episode of extreme heat is past thankfully. Temperatures will be
lower today as moisture/clouds steadily increase. GOES image of
precipitable water shows deeper moisture along the Upper Texas
coast extending southwest to the Mid-Coast early this morning.
Already seeing streamer showers moving into the Mid-Coast area
early this morning. With steep low level lapse rates, convection
should become scattered over the coastal plains once area
receives minimal heating this morning. Outflow from convection
along boundary over east-central Texas will push south toward the
I-10 corridor this afternoon. Expect convergence will increase
ahead of this boundary this afternoon to focus continued
convective development. Kept highest PoPs over the Victoria
Crossroads today. Models indicated drier air at the lower levels
will push in from the Gulf into the Coastal areas by this evening
with convection diminishing over the western Brush Country. Low
level convergence will increase again along the coast with higher
moisture moving back in from the Gulf early Sunday. The left over
boundary from convection to the north may be close to the
northern counties of the forecast area for a focus for
redevelopment on Sunday. Moisture will be plentiful over the
region with PWAT values near 2 inches over the coastal plains.
Scattered convection will be possible area wide Sunday.

COASTAL...

Swells at buoy 42020 continue to be slightly above what the Wave
Watch model indicated, which was similar to yesterday. With swells
of 3 to 4 feet with period of 8 seconds along with east-southeast
flow will push rip current risk to high for today.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...

A weakness in the height fields over South Texas combined with
increasing moisture (PWATs 1.8 to 2"), and a stalled frontal
boundary, will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the Coastal Bend Mon-Tue.  Precipitation will be
more scattered in nature on Wed and Thur, as low level winds
increase due to a trough moving through the central plains.  Drier
conditions develop by the end of the period as the ridge begins to
build back overhead.  Expect temperatures to be closer to seasonal
normals through the period with the increased cloud cover and
precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  77  92  75  90  /  30  30  40  40  60
Victoria          93  75  90  74  90  /  60  30  50  30  60
Laredo           100  77  96  75  95  /  20  20  30  20  40
Alice             96  75  93  74  93  /  30  20  40  30  60
Rockport          91  79  89  78  89  /  40  30  50  50  60
Cotulla           98  76  95  74  95  /  30  20  30  20  40
Kingsville        95  76  92  75  92  /  30  30  40  30  60
Navy Corpus       91  80  90  79  89  /  30  30  50  50  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces.

GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...SHORT TERM



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