Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 261139
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KALI WILL BECOME VFR AOA 18Z. KCRP
AND KVCT ARE FORECAST TO SEE SOME MVFR CIGS BEFORE 19Z WITH SOME
SHOWERS IN THE AREA AS WELL (NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR TEMPOS). VFR
BY 19Z ALL TERMINALS. DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS OR ANY
CONVECTION IN KLRD...SINCE IF ANYTHING WOULD HAPPEN THERE IT WOULD
BE COMING FROM MEXICO AND DO NOT EXPECT THAT AT THIS TIME. WINDS
START OFF A BIT HIGHER...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE A TAD (AND
NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY) WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT. MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO EASTERN TERMINALS BEFORE 06Z AND AROUND 09Z
AT KLRD. COULD HAVE SOME MVFR BR AT KVCT AND KALI TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING TOO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING TROUGH EAST OF AREA WITH WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWING. DRIER AIR
OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH A BIT ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING
IN LATER TODAY. THE LONG AND THE SHORT OF IT IS THAT I AM
EXPECTING A LOT LESS ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. PWATS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES/AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THE LATTER
WHICH COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION.
THAT IS WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY IF AT ALL (AND EXPECTING IT TO BE
WEAK). WEAK S/W IN UPPER FLOW COULD BRING SOME CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHERN AREAS TODAY. SOME OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION FROM OLD MEXICO
MAY CROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT TOO. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ON WEDNESDAY NOT HIGH...BUT DID
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE NORTH. THINK DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
FROM THE GULF AND WEAK RIDGING WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAINFALL FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT AND
KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH DID GO A TAD WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE
DRIER AIR EXPECTED.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST EXPECTED. SEAS AROUND 6 FEET
OFFSHORE SO SCEC FOR TODAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK RIDGING WILL BE
IN PLACE AT BEGINNING OF LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT
LAST TOO LONG. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US AND THEN SLIDING EASTWARD. THINGS
LOOK A BIT DIFFERENT THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS...NAMELY WITH THE ECMWF
NOT GIVING US MUCH OF A BREAK FROM THE RELENTLESS RAINFALL WE`VE
BEEN SEEING FOR WEEKS NOW. BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ECMWF INDICATING MUCH HIGHER POPS THAN THE GFS
OVERALL. GOING TO STICK WITH JUST A 30/40 POP SITUATION FOR NOW.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DO INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA
ON MONDAY. THIS IS HIGHLY SUSPECT...AS IT IS JUST CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNLIKELY. WILL NOT HANG MUCH HOPE ON THAT YET...AND EVEN IF IT DID
GET IN...WOULDNT CHANGE THE FORECAST SIGNIFICANTLY. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY WOULD REMAIN HIGH. GFS DOES INDICATE A MODEST DECREASE IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...BUT ECMWF REMAINS HIGH.

TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FROM EARLY WEEK ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. WILL
HAVE 80S TO AROUND 90 THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE MID/LATE WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BACKS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  78  90  77  86  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          88  76  89  75  87  /  20  10  20  10  30
LAREDO            97  77  97  77  93  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             92  76  92  76  89  /  10  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          85  79  87  79  84  /  20  10  20  10  20
COTULLA           93  75  93  75  91  /  20  20  20  10  30
KINGSVILLE        90  78  92  76  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  79  87  78  84  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION




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