Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 211130 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
630 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...Update for 12z Aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...Variety of flight rules across S TX to start the TAF
period. Areas of FG/low CIGs with LIFR/VLIFR xpctd to start the
TAF period at KALI to KVCT...with areas of low CIGs of IFR to MVFR
to impact KLRD. KCRP xpctd to remain VFR for now...but chance is
there for VCFG to drift across the aerodrome. Flight rules are
xpctd to only slowly improve thru the mrng...but should return to
VFR by the aftn as CIGs eventually mix out. VFR to then prevail
until late tonight with renewed FG/CIG dvlpmnt ahead of a cold
front that will be approaching the region from the N by late in
the TAF period. Weak/vrb/calm sfc winds this mrng eventually becmg
more SErly around 10 kts.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...

Areas of fog are in the process of developing this morning with
visibilities across inland areas expected to deteriorate further
towards sunrise. Inland fog should mix out by mid morning with
areas of stratus persisting through much of the morning as a
strong llvl thermal inversion persists. Dry air in the H85 to H7
layer should negate precip development across most of the CWA
today...with the exception being in the Victoria area where
conditions will be slightly better for a brief isolated shower to
develop in the afternoon.

A deep trough is prog to carve into TX and the Plains tonight and
send a strong cold front southward across Texas. Weak and variable
winds are expected overnight with more of weak west flow
developing by late in the night as the base of the trough
approaches. The front should be just north of the CWA by 12z
Sunday...and as such most of the night should remain dry. Notable
guidance exception is the NSSL 4km WRF which barrels the front
into the CWA around 10zish along with developing showers and
thunderstorms across the area. Unless the front gets a massive
convective push to it...I feel the timing of the NSSL WRF is a bit
overdone. What seems to be more likely to verify tonight are some
isolated showers developing in the weak southerly llvl flow along
the coast into the Victoria area overnight.

Front should push south across the CWA during the day Sunday. Best
dynamics aloft will be lifting NE away from the area as FROPA
occurs...and veering winds in the lower levels should scour
moisture out of the area. Thus...a diminishing broken line of
showers is expected to move S across the Victoria area and
gradually dissipate as it moves into the Coastal Plains. Breezy
north winds are likely to develop by late in the day.

Warm to hot (by late October standards) temps are expected today
with warm conditions persisting on Sunday as cooler air should not
arrive until late in the day.

Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for today and this
evening. PErsistent high water levels will continue today...but
water level values should not be as high as they were a about a
week or so ago.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...

Cooler and drier air mass will be sweeping into the area behind the
cold front Sunday night. SCA conditions are expected over the Gulf
waters Sunday night into Monday morning. Another strong short wave
trough will dive through the plains into the upper Midwest Monday
night with an upper low forming near the Great Lakes region
Tuesday. This will send a reinforcing surge of high pressure into
the area Tuesday. SCA conditions will return for the Gulf waters
Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Surface high pressure settles into
the region by Wednesday morning with lows around 50 degrees across
the northern counties. Temperatures will rebound for Thursday as
the surface high moves to the east and a trough of low pressure
forms over the southern high plains in advance of a short wave
trough. Confidence for the end of the week is lower as model
differences show up with the handling of the developing upper
trough over the Rockies Thursday into Friday. ECMWF is much
stronger with a deeper trough Thursday and an upper low over the
Four Corners region. The other models are more progressive which
leads to another cold front moving into the area during the day
Friday. Will lean toward the consensus of models with a
progressive patter at this time. There may be enough moisture
return for isolated convection over the coastal waters Friday
ahead of the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  71  89  56  84  /  10  10  20  10   0
Victoria          90  71  85  52  81  /  20  20  40  10   0
Laredo            91  72  88  57  85  /  10  10  10  10   0
Alice             92  70  90  55  86  /  10  10  20  10   0
Rockport          87  76  87  61  82  /  10  10  30  10   0
Cotulla           90  70  86  52  85  /  10  10  20  10   0
Kingsville        93  72  91  56  86  /  10  10  20  10   0
Navy Corpus       88  76  88  63  82  /  10  10  30  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces...
     Refugio...San Patricio.

GM...None.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION


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