Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 232044
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
344 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WL PERSIST OVER THE REGION DRG
THE PERIOD. SINCE LAST NIGHT MSTR HAS BEEN ADVECTING FROM THE
SWRN GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE REGION TOWARD THE CWA/MSA (GFS SOUNDER
DPI PWAT OUTPUT.) DECIDED TO ADD ISOLD CONVECTION TO THE
FCST...WITH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POPS...TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA/MSA
THIS AFTN/EVENING...OVER THE MSA/NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY AFTN (SREF QPF
PROBABILITIES/NAM DETERMINISTIC CIN/CAPE/LI PATTERNS.) ANTICIPATE
LOWER MAX TEMPS SUNDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR. EXPECT PATCHY FOG
OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR CWA DRG THE APPROXIMATELY 10-13Z
SUNDAY PERIOD (NAM SOUNDING/SREF VSBY PROBABILITIES.) WL FCST SCEC
CONDITIONS OVER THE SRN BAYS/SRN NEARSHORE WATERS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANTICIPATE AROUND 15KT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT BASED ON VERTICAL MIXING OF 925MB NAM
MOMENTUM.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERIOD STARTS WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. EXPECTING RELATIVE
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVER THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FORCING COMING FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. LOW
PWATS...MID LEVEL RIDGING...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO GET QUITE HOT OVER SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY WITH HARDLY
ANY RAIN CHANCES. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A REGION OF HIGH
PWATS...EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...WILL WRAP AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER AND ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS...IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE ENHANCED POPS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA
DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL BE SINKING INTO TEXAS FRIDAY...WITH THE 12Z GFS STALLING
IT OUT OVER THE CWA. GIVEN THE REGIONS CLIMATOLOGY...TEND TO BELIEVE
THAT THE OTHER LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORING IT PROGRESSING NO
FURTHER SOUTH THAN NORTH TEXAS. BEYOND THIS MODELS DIVERGE A
BIT...BUT STILL LOOKING AT DECENT MOISTURE VALUES...SO HAVE GONE
WITH 20 POPS OVER THE WATERS AND COAST AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
USUALLY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME STREAMER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  95  77  99  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  99  75 101  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 102  76 105  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74  99  76 101  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  89  79  95  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 101  74 105  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  98  76 100  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  88  80  96  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
IB/90...LONG TERM



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