Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 200507 AAC
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1207 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

Main issue will be the potential for MVFR conditions eastern
terminals. Previous forecast has some TEMPO MVFR conditions over
the eastern terminals and, looking at the IR FOG channel, some
very isolated MVFR clouds are in the area. May see patches of MVFR
conditions this morning and have decided to keep the MVFR CIGS for
a few hours, with MVFR BR also a possibility for KALI and KVCT as
well. After 14Z, should then see VFR conditions all areas again.
Relatively dry airmass should preclude convection over the
terminals. Typical summertime wind pattern, with south winds
increasing and becoming SE with the passage of the sea-breeze,
then diminishing AOA 01Z eastern terminals. KLRD winds will die
down early in the TAF period, then pick up late (about 21/02Z) as
the boundary moves all the way toward the Rio Grande.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1008 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the forecast for the overnight hours. Seeing as
though the winds will continue to decrease after midnight and
there is mostly clear skies overhead with drier air above the
surface we could see patchy fog develop across the interior parts
of the Coastal Bend so we have added that to the forecast at this
time. Confidence is low on how thick/dense it could become, just
use caution if driving through it in the morning.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 723 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Update for 00Z aviation cycle.

AVIATION...

Tonight...Mostly VFR. A few pockets of MVFR stratus and some
ground fog may develop in/around KALI/KVCT/KCRP closer to
daybreak. Otherwise light southeasterly winds. High confidence
overall.

Sunday...VFR. A very persistence based forecast with any stratus
giving way to scattered/few stratocu by late morning. Sea breeze
will move through from late morning into the mid-afternoon hours
across our terminals with some gusts upward of 20 knots. High
confidence.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday night)...

The mid to upper level ridge axis will stay over the region
through the period. GOES 16 image of precipitable water shows
region of higher moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico to the
east-southeast of the Lower Texas coast. Some of this moisture
will reach the offshore waters late tonight into Sunday morning.
With adequate low level lapse rates expected, should see isolated
showers form in this area around daybreak. 12Z NAM was an outlier
showing band of streamer showers closer to the coast. Not much
change is expected for temperatures during the period. With light
winds late tonight, could see some patchy fog over the inland
coastal plains. Precipitable water values up to around 2 inches
will reach the coastal waters Sunday night with isolated
thunderstorms possibly reaching the coast by daybreak Monday.
Afternoon heat index values will remain below advisory criteria
for Sunday.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

Previously advertised TUTT low continues to weaken and shear out as
it enters the western Gulf while mid level ridging tries to build in
from the west. Despite the weakening, the TUTT continues to draw
moisture into the western Gulf, with increased rain chances early in
the week for South Texas. Chances remain greatest across the open
waters and across the Coastal Plains Monday and Tuesday. Uncertainty
remains for the latter half of the week with the development and
progression of Harvey. Latest National Hurricane Center advisory
continues a general westward track reaching Nicaragua and Honduras
around Monday, then a slight northwest track reaching the Bay of
Campeche Wednesday/Thursday. With a broad area of weakness remaining
across the Texas coast, and abundant tropical moisture moving into
the southern Gulf, will continue to keep chance POPs for the latter
half of the week as moisture may begin to be drawn farther north.
Continue to monitor the latest advisories from the NHC.

With an increase in rain chances and cloud coverage in the forecast,
temperatures will be able to cool down a bit. But only by a few
degrees, with temperatures returning to near seasonal normal. Highs
will continue to run in mid 90s across the Coastal Plains, to near
100 degrees across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Heat
index values will continue to reach 105 to 109 degrees across
portions of S TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  97  78  95  77  /  10  10  10  30  10
Victoria          76  97  76  96  76  /   0  10  10  30  10
Laredo            78 104  78 101  77  /   0   0  10  10  10
Alice             74 100  74  99  74  /   0  10  10  20  10
Rockport          80  94  80  93  80  /  10  10  10  30  10
Cotulla           76 103  76 100  76  /   0   0  10  10  10
Kingsville        76  99  76  98  76  /   0  10  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       82  94  82  93  81  /  10  10  10  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



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