Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 212042
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
242 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN ISSUE IS FOG
TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MORNING (IF FRONT GOES
THROUGH ENOUGH AREAS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES AROUND 8 AM).
BEYOND THAT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN RAINFALL WHATSOEVER...SINCE
(EXCEPT FOR NEAR SURFACE) LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES
THROUGH THE THREE PERIODS...AND UPPER SUPPORT GENERALLY STAYS NORTH.
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG MANY AREAS TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
DENSE. PROBLEM WITH ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME IS THE
FACT THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MODERATE...
ALONG WITH TIMING/AREA ISSUES (WHO TO INCLUDE AND WHO TO LEAVE OUT)
SO NO ADVISORY ISSUED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES CAN BE A BIT TRICKY
TONIGHT...SINCE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...BUT FOG AND DEW FORMATION WILL HELP TO LOWER
TEMPS. SHOULD BE A WARM DAY ON MONDAY ONCE THE FOG DISPERSES...WITH
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE AND DRYING
AIR. FRONT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF AREA BEFORE 12Z TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD
START TO COME DOWN AFTER 12Z AND MAY GO THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...AM GOING TO GO COOL
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS BUT WARM CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOG LIKELY
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
TONIGHT BUT THINK THE VAST MAJORITY OF IT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. NO
OTHER PRECIPITATING ISSUES...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN/KEEP THE PATCHY SEA FOG
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS STILL COULD HAVE SOME DEVELOP BEFORE FROPA
ON TUESDAY (AND MAINLY NORTHEASTERN WATERS).

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A
POTENT UPPER LOW TO SWING ACROSS TX AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
S TX. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z AND
QUICKLY PUSH OFF THE COAST BY NOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A
QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE AHD OF THE FRONT SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT
SRHA`S ACROSS THE E CWA AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS PROG
WEAK CAPE AND LIFT ALONG WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. CONTEMPLATED PUTTING TSRA`S IN THE FCST FOR
TUE...HOWEVER AM SKEPTICAL ON THE AMOUNT OF RETURN MOISTURE THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE. WILL KEEP SHRA`S IN THE FCST BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TSRA OR TWO. STRONG NW WINDS ARE PROGD TO DVLP BEHIND THE
FRONT AND USHER IN COOLER AIR. TUE`S MX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING. KEPT THE TREND OF FALLING TEMPS THRU TUE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY THE NE CWA. MODELS VARY ON JUST HOW STRONG THE
WINDS WILL BE ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. KEPT WITH SUSTAINED
25-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS.
MAY NEED A GALE WATCH FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR NIGHT IF GUSTS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL BE FREQUENTLY GALE FORCE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE TIMING IS STILL LATE 3RD INTO 4TH PERIOD. WINDS ACROSS THE LAND
WILL LIKELY BE WINDY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL FILTER INTO S TX TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. SUNNY SKIES CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE FRI AHD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS PROGD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LACKING
MOISTURE...THUS AM NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THE FRI NIGHT
FRONT...EXCEPT ISOLD SHRA`S OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    54  79  63  64  45  /  10  10  10  20   0
VICTORIA          52  76  59  61  40  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            53  81  54  65  43  /   0   0  10  10   0
ALICE             53  81  59  65  42  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          54  75  63  64  48  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           49  80  49  64  37  /   0   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        54  80  60  66  44  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       58  74  64  65  48  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM





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