Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 301153
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
553 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT PASSED OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR SKIES
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST WIND OVER KLRD...KALI...AND
KCRP EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND REMAINS LIGHTER WITH VFR CIGS OVER
KVCT...BUT ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS TO FILL IN BY MID MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR LVLS AT KCRP AND KALI IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND KLRD OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
FROM NORTH NORTHEAST TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE VICINITY OF
KLRD OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION JUST
PAST THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW
THIS MORNING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL
FEEL FAIRLY COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONE WILL PRODUCE SCEC CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FAIRLY QUICKLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW AMPLE MOISTURE TO BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION. THE
MID/UPPER LVL LOW DIGGING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SEND
DISTURBANCES OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE AND SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
KEEP HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY. RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING EAST OVER
SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO
SEASONABLE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW
AND WAA PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE TWO MAIN RAIN EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THE NEXT ONE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. UPPER JET
APPROACHES SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND IMPACTS AREA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT (WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT TOO) AND CONTINUES
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON (THE LATTER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS). LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF INSTABILITY PRESENT TO WARRANT A
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS RAIN EVENT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST SO WILL HAVE DECREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD BE TRICKY...AS THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH OF A DIMINISH IN CLOUD COVER TO BRING TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES (IF NOT HIGHER). WILL NOT GO
THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME SINCE THINK CLOUD COVER WILL STILL INHIBIT
GOOD INSULATION...BUT WILL STILL TEND TOWARD A WARMER FORECAST.

THE SECOND MAIN RAIN EVENT OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES. SINCE THESE
UPPER LOWS CAN BE FINICKY IN HOW FAST (OR SLOW) THEY CAN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION (AND HOW FAST/SLOW THE MODELS ACTUALLY FORECAST THEM TO
MOVE)...AM GOING TO GO NO MORE THAN GOOD CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY...
WITH LOWER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY (BUT
STILL CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST). UPPER RIDGE SHOULD START TAKING
CONTROL BY WEDNESDAY...SO NO RAIN MENTIONED EXCEPT OFFSHORE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLEST DAYTIME
HIGHS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  55  70  63  76  /  10  10  40  50  40
VICTORIA          62  48  65  60  73  /  10  10  50  60  60
LAREDO            67  55  71  58  75  /  10  30  40  50  20
ALICE             63  54  71  60  77  /  10  20  40  50  40
ROCKPORT          59  54  65  61  73  /  10  10  40  50  50
COTULLA           63  52  67  58  73  /  10  30  60  50  20
KINGSVILLE        63  55  72  62  75  /  10  10  30  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       60  55  68  63  72  /  10  10  30  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION




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