Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 011450
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1050 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEVERAL AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

KCCX RADAR SHOWS THE HIGHER CLOUDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE BANDS OF CIRRUS OVER THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR IN WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PA AS
THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY IS TO OUR EAST. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FOCUSED
CLOSE TO WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE.

FOG IN SOME VALLEYS BENEATH THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN
GUIDANCE TO BREAK UP. BUT THEN AGAIN...BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO.

THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SLOW PUSH A BIT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST SO KEPT HIGHER POPS...LATER IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN
SOUTHEAST PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. NO POPS
OF NOTE IN NW TODAY AND CHANCE IN CENTRAL AREAS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AS EXPECTED ARE NUDGING DOWN IN CENTRAL
AREAS AS THE SUN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE. DESPITE THE
CIRRUS...QUITE WARM ALREADY IN SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP KEPT CHANCE IN AREAS OF HIGH POPS
MAINLY AFTER 18Z. THE SREF AND NARRE APPEAR TO SHOW SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER 18Z IN SOUTHEAST AND BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED TSTSMS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS STATE
COLLEGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING 500 TROUGH AND THE PLUME OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE COAST IMPLY ANOTHER DAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. SREF
AND NAM KEEP LIGHT RAINFALL INTO MOST OF EASTERN PA.

SREF...GFS...NAM ALL SHOW INSTABILITY IN WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND A BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN WEST AND LOTS OF
LOW CLOUD AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE EAST.

GOOD NEWS ALL THE HEAVY RAIN FORECASTS ARE WELL TO OUR EAST. BAD
NEWS IT LOOKS PRETTY CLOUDY AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND IN
WEST BETTER CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM WHAT HAS BECOME AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN A TROUGH...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL AS THIS WEEK. WILL SEE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXACTLY WHERE THE
DISTURBANCES GO IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN CENTRAL AREAS HAS BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF.
MOSTLY CLEAR IN WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY AND THESE AREAS WILL BE SLOW
TO GET CLOUDY TODAY. SOUTHEAST HAS MAINLY VFR AS THE CLOUDS ARE
QUITE HIGH AND THIN.

CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
IN SOUTHEAST AREAS. MVFR AREAS WILL EXPAND. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL SEE EXPANSION OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT THE CLOUDS AND MVFR AREAS EXPAND. GOOD SET UP FOR MORE
FOG AND AREAS OF IFR ISOLATED LIFR.

THE WEEKEND WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS EDGE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SE...BUT LIKELY STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PA AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. BUT DAILY POSS OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
MON...POSSIBLE AM FOG. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
TUE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...GRUMM/RXR



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