Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 310605
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region this afternoon into early
this evening with a few isolated showers. High pressure will ridge
south into the commonwealth for Wednesday. Increasing moisture
will flow north into Pennsylvania for Thursday...bringing a better
chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...

Aside from the tail end of a stripe of cirrus across our far sern
zones...skies will be generally clear through the mid morning
hours. Sfc dewpoints will be holding in the low-mid 60s for a few
more hours to the SE of Interstate 81...while drier/cooler air
with dewpoints in the 50s will be found across central and nw
penn.

Light wind and areas of wet ground will lead to some patchy fog
early today. Lows will range from the upper 40s to around 50F
across northwestern penn... to the lower 60s in the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Slowly rising heights aloft and sfc ridging will provide a mostly
sunny and warm day for residents of central PA on Tuesday.

Superblend used for temps with highs ranging from the u70s over
the Allegheny Plateau, to the m80s over the Susq Valley...although
a few spots could crack 87F far southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not a lot of change from the last 2 days.

Made minor adjustments to the fcst package.

Still looks dry and warm for Wed.

Models show cold front moving into the area late Thursday into
Friday. 12Z NAM is showing large scale flow to be less amplified
and more zonal in a sense...so front not likely to slow down
quite as much for late Friday into Sat.

For Sunday into Monday...another weak system swings across the
area. Adjusted parameters to fit in with others. A slow cool
down as one heads into next weekend. At this time range...too
far out for not having some spread in model solutions from day
to day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure will build in overnight and will continue
into midweek. The forecast question overnight will be the
development of fog/mist due to the calming winds and clearing
skies. Given the pattern and the last few nights, BFD, AOO, MDT
and LNS could see MVFR to IFR vsbys until around 13Z. More
settled weather building into the region through midweek should
stifle convection over the next few days with only early morning
patchy fog.


OUTLOOK...

Tue-Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn.

Thu...Chance of showers/tstms west. A.M. cig reductions poss
west.

Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with
restrictions poss.

Sat...Mainly fair/VFR. Local fog reductions poss around dawn.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Lambert
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Lambert
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...DeVoir/Ceru



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