Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 240233
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1033 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Pennsylvania will be on the northern edge of the subtropical
ridge into next week. A series of weakening cold fronts will bring
the mention of isolated mainly afternoon or evening showers or
thunderstorms, but most of the time it will be fair, very warm
and humid but rain free.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A few showers and storms southeast of PIT, should stay south of
our area. Just some high clouds overnight. Interesting band of
high clouds from convection over the central lakes.

Current lows look good. It is warm out, but much of the area
has lower dewpoints than last night, but still rather high across
the extreme southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Sunday will feature abundant sunshine for most of the day...along
with very warm to hot temps. 850 mb temps will be very similar to
today`s readings leading to highs once again well up into the 80s
to low/mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Big story in the extended fcst is the expected heat wave lasting
into early in the upcoming week, as the axis of the subtropical
ridge briefly shifts from the plains to the northeast conus.
Anomalous upper lvl ridging building over PA should bring hot and
mainly dry wx this weekend, as warm temps aloft suppress
convection. Next chance of shra/tsra for most of the area comes
Monday ahead of shortwave working across the Great Lakes. However,
any rainfall Monday is likely to do little to stem the dry pattern
we have been in.

Heat indices around 100F appear possible by Monday across the
Susq Valley, as higher dewpoints are advected into the area ahead
of potential convection. Overnight lows are also a concern as the
area doesn`t cool off at night through the weekend with Southern
PA lows in the 70s with highest readings Monday morning. Some
modest cooling appears likely by Tue/Wed of next week behind weak
cold front. However, temps still likely to remain somewhat abv
normal within a generally zonal flow.

Midweek weather looks dry again, with just low pops for isolated
tstms. Fri looks to be the next higher chance for tstm impacts
areawide as another cool front progged to move through.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions across the region this evening. Expect
some fog development over western and central airfields overnight.
Eastern airfields should remain vfr overnight.

A few more hours of gusty west winds will diminish rapidly around
or shortly after sunset.

Sunday shaping up to be a VFR day...with a nearly cloudless sky
expected. Winds should be lighter with the surface ridge
overhead.

OUTLOOK...

MON...Scattered restrictions possible with a cold front bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

TUE-WED...No sig wx.

THU...Mainly VFR...but with scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High in MDT so far is 98 degrees. Record for this date is
103 degrees in 1991.

High in IPT so far is 99 degrees, which tied the record
high of 99 degrees set in 1955.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Martin
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...Jung/La Corte
CLIMATE...Martin


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