Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCTP 020632
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
232 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT FOG TO EXPAND THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN SPOTS WITH VISIBILITY AOB 1/2SM. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVG INTO WV MAY KICK OFF A VERY ISOLD SHOWER INVOF THE LAURELS AS
PER HRRR BUT CONFIDENCE AND POPS ARE QUITE LOW. BETTER CHC LATER
TODAY WITH THE HEATING CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE TODAY. THERE IS A TINY DEPRESSION IN THE
OTHERWISE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCD WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IN. THIS DEPRESSION
SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.

BUT THAT FEATURE MAKES ONLY A SMALL DIP IN MID-LVL TEMPS AND TINY
DECREASE IN STABILITY ON WED. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY
THE LAURELS AND NRN MTNS. THE 30-40 POPS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY
BE THE HIGHEST POPS WE DRAW FOR QUITE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL AT THE SFC. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIMITED TO NO RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH VS. THE ECMWF WITH CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL DROP SWD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER/LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. NO RISK OF RAIN AGAIN UNTIL PROBABLY NEXT
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
 OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN IFR FOG ALREADY
AT BRADFORD...IT HAS NOW SUNKEN INTO THE VALLEY. GIVEN THE LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECT VARIED IFR OR LOWER
VSBYS AND CIGS AT BFD THROUGH 13Z. AFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
WITH VFR BY 14Z.
 ELSEWHERE A HAZY WARM AND HUMID LATE SUMMER EVENING IS IN
PROGRESS. THE VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO GIVE WAY TO
RESTRICTIONS WITH IFR AT UNV AND MVFR AT AOO. THERE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT DRIER AIR MASS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH COULD LIMIT OVERALL FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER IT
REMAINS EXPECTED THAT THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL
GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AS PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMS
ONCE AGAIN. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE
IMPROVING.

MORE CLEAR NIGHTS WITH AM VALLEY FOG AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.