Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 031419
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1019 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHER NEW JERSEY
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS PUSHED AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. STRONG
EARLY SUMMER SUN SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUDS EVEN AS DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY STARTS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER MY SWRN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE JUST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS 925-850 MB SERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF
THE LLVL WIND MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE
AIMING INTO NORTHEAST PENN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE...AND A FEW AREAS OF NOTABLY STRONG 850-700 FGEN WILL
COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY/WRN POCONOS TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.

BASIN AVG QPF FOR THE UPCOMING 12-16 HOUR EVENT HAS BEEN
INCREASED QUITE DRAMATICALLY TO 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...SEEING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. MOST OF
NORTHERN PENN WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTING TO LESS THAT 0.25 OF
AN INCH.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO ISOLATED-SCTD SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE RELATIVE MIN EXTENDING FROM SCENT
PENN TO THE WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQ RIVER. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD THOUGH AS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX OUT THE PRECEDING DEEP MOISTURE.

WE SURELY AREN/T HAVING MUCH LUCK WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAYS
GETTING ANYWHERE THIS WEEK OR LAST. MUCH BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH THANKS TO THICK CLOUD
COVER...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN MANY PLACES...AND SOME LIGHT
RAIN -ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S...TO
LOWER 70S DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MED RANGE MODELS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING...THEN
AGAIN ON WED.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS SAT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONCENTRATED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND THAT WILL
POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN- TUE...DUE TO MODELS DEPICTION
OF A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES WED.

GEFS/ECENS OUTPUT IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SCT SHOWERS
AND LINGERING LL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV
AVERAGE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE AREA OF MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE LEAVING ALL TERMINALS VFR BY MID DAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY. THE HRRR
SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING INTO JST/AOO VICINITY AFTER 21Z. THE OH VLY
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACRS THE APPALACHIANS
AND THRU THE MID ATLC ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND AT LEAST
MARGINAL FLYING CONDS FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR IN RAIN/SHRA.

SUN...BCMG VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...VFR WITH LOW CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL



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