Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 301514
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION EARLY TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A NOTICEABLY
DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST BASED ON TRACKING RADAR MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM.
NARROW LINE OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD THIS MORNING
WITH BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE CWA. SO FAR NO LIGHTNING DETECTED IN
THE CWA WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES INTO WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIR. WESTERN
HALF OF CWA WILL BE DRY WITH DECREASING TD AS DRYER AIR SLOWLY
FILTERS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INVOF HUDSON
BAY. THE FIRST...IN WHAT WILL BE A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED NRN
STREAM COLD FRONTS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRING
THE RISK OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS NW
AND N-CENTRAL PA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PCT/ FOR DAY 3/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN WHAT SHOULD BE A STABLE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUT WEST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARDS KMDT AND KLNS.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE



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