Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCTP 221151
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
751 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA
AND PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD EDGE JUST GETTING DOWN THE SLOPE OFF BLUE MOUNTAIN...WITH
THE SHIELD STRETCHING FAR TO THE NORTH. THE CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THEY
WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK UP...BUT RH PLOTS DO SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE IN THE
COLD ADVECTION. 8H TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT THIS MORNING WITH THE GFS
BRINGING THE 0C LINE DOWN TO KJHW AND NAM PUSHING IT INTO OUR NRN
COS BRIEFLY. BUT THIS SNAP WILL NOT LAST MORE THAN 12 HRS...AS
MIXING AND THE WIND CHANGE THE SIGN OF THE LLVL TEMP ADVECTION BY
LATE AFTN. A FEW THIN STREAMERS OFF THE LAKE MAY LINGER THROUGH
MID-MORNING...BUT IT REALLY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD HURON CONNECTION
REACHING DOWN INTO THE LAURELS. IT IS LATE SEPT AND IT WON/T BE
LONG BEFORE THIS SCENE REPEATS ITSELF WITH REALLY COLD AIR MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKES AND THE PRECIP WILL BE THE WHITE STUFF. IT WILL
BE CHILLY TODAY...WITH THE TEMP NOT MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE DAY
IN THE NRN TIER. MAXES WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER/MID 50S IN THE
NRN HILLS. MID/UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BE RIGHT ABOUT
OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. 8H TEMPS WILL ALREADY BE RISING TONIGHT.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT SOME REINFORCEMENT
TO THE CLOUDS MAY COME DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. THE SHALLOW COLD AIR AND INVERSION WILL LET THE WINDS GO
CALM AND TEMPS COULD DROP INTO THE M/U30S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THUS...SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE IF THERE ARE NOT TOO
MANY CLOUDS AROUND. A BETTER BET IS THAT SOME VALLEY FOG WILL FORM
IN THE DEEPER/DARKER VALLEYS BY SUNRISE TUES AS THE TEMPS FALL
WELL BELOW THE WATER TEMPS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A MENTION OF FROST
AND ALLOW THE DAYSHIFT TO FURTHER DIAGNOSE THIS POTENTIAL TROUBLE.
THE COLDER SPOTS IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS WILL ALSO DROP OFF NEAR
40F BY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE A MUCH MILDER DAY WITH TEMPS
RISING ABOUT 25F DURING THE DAY AND REACHING ABOUT 10F MILDER THAN
MONDAY IN THE NW - BUT STAYING SIMILAR TO MONDAY IN THE LOWER
SUSQ.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PARK ITSELF OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WITH
+2 TO +3 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL MSLP ANOMALIES BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHOWING A BLOCKING 500 HPA
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AS A MASSIVE 500 HPA POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY OF +2 TO +3 SIGMA DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL CANADA BY THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY.

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS DO WELL FORECASTING ANTICYCLONES SO
THERE SEEMS TO BE MORE OF A CONSENSUS ON THE FAIR WEATHER FORECAST
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DIURNAL VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO
AFFECT THE REGION EACH MORNING ONCE THE BIG HIGH TAKES HOLD....AND
CONTINUING DAILY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THAT MASSIVE HIGH SHOULD
CONTINUE THE DRY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO COVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
THIS MORNING. IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE. OVER CENTRAL AIRFIELDS...MVFR CIGS
PREVAIL. OVER EASTERN AREAS...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND WITH
DOWNSLOPING HELPING TO DISSIPATE CLOUDS. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT
STREAMERS OF PCPN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD NATURE OF CLOUDS WILL MEAN THAT THEY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE WEST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DRIER
AIR...SURFACE RIDGING...AND MIXING HELP TO BREAK THESE UP.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL INTO MID/LATE WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY
MORNING FOG.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH DAILY RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU
AVIATION...JUNG


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.