Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 202146
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
546 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring
warm weather to Pennsylvania through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Clear and very warm conditions throhghout this evening. Visible
imagery shows just a few shallow cu dying over the north
central mountains at present. Clear skies overnight with areas
of fog redeveloping in the early morning hours. Low temperatures
falling back into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Ridge holding strong again Thursday and Thursday night. Look for
fog quickly dissipating in the morning followed a sunny and warm
afternoon. Areas of fog form again in the early morning hours on
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Beyond the midweek temperatures and the pattern remains stable
as a building ridge continues to stifle any convection. weak
flow at night should allow for valley fog to form nightly and to
greet morning commuters. The overall consensus in the models
through the weekend is for the 590 dam closed 500 hPa high will
drift slowly out of the midwest states, and become centered
over western PA by late this weekend through early next week.

Ensemble temperatures are in general consensus and high temps
through the weekend will be 10-15F above normal with little or
no chance of rain until Monday at the very earliest. There are
hints that what was left of Jose could bring moisture and thus
some rainfall through Monday into Tuesday. However there
continues to be model variability so have only chance POPS.

Lows early each morning will be consistently in the mid and
upper 50s across the northern and western mtns, to lower 60s in
the larger SE metro areas.

Min temps may cool off slightly for this weekend thanks to deep
dry air and a light N to NW llvl flow of drier dewpoint air at
the sfc.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions until pre dawn hours when fog reforms only to
dissipate a couple hours after sunrise. Look for this pattern
of early morning fog to repeat Thursday night into Friday
morning.

.Outlook...

Thu-Sun...Patchy valley fog possible each morning. Otherwise
VFR with generally light winds and minimal clouds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Astronomical Fall/Autumnal Equinox begins at 4:02 PM Friday
September 22, 2017.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross
NEAR TERM...Ross/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Ross
LONG TERM...Ceru/Gartner
AVIATION...Ross
CLIMATE...



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