Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 230757
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
257 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area and last through the
weekend. Another cold front will push through Pennsylvania on
Saturday. A very dry period is in store through the beginning of
December.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Stratus continues over most of the area this morning. Winds have
decreased and a quiet night for the region expected with
seasonally cool morning lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
High pressure at the surface will ensure dry weather and light
wind for Thanksgiving...despite passage of upper front which
will bring an increase of mid and high level clouds especially
in the afternoon hours. Max temps should range from the mid 30s
over the northwest mountains, to the low 40s in the Susq
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence of fair and seasonable weather Thursday night
into Friday, as all guidance continues to indicate weak ridging
aloft in advance of next system. Expect a somewhat milder day
Friday, as surface high passes off the coast and return
southwest flow ensues.

Relatively good agreement among med range guidance into Sat/Sun,
with a cold front passage likely midday Saturday after a mild
Fri night. Scattered rain showers will likely accompany the
front on Sat, followed by a period of lake effect snow showers
Sat night into Sunday, as another blast of seasonably chilly air
charges across the relatively mild waters of the Grt Lks. ECENS
and GEFS both support below normal temperatures Sunday, as deep
upper level trough swings over the northeast states.

All signs are pointing toward fair and milder weather early
next week, as upper ridging is progged along the eastern
seaboard in all med range guidance. The guidance diverges by
midweek with GFS bringing a cold front and deeper trough
through, while the EC splits the energy off into a closed low
that remains back over the central U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Bkn-Ovc layer of MVFR to low-end VFR strato cu clouds will
persist across the Central and Northwest Mountains of
Pennsylvania through the mid morning hours today. Afterward, the
low-mid level ridge of high pressure just off to our west will
flatten out and drift over the state this afternoon and evening.

After the strato cu dissipates later this morning as the mean
low level flow backs around to 240-260 degrees, an area of
bkn alto cu (based at 080-120 kft agl) and cirrus will slide
east from the Ohio Valley and across Central PA and the Susq
Valley this afternoon and evening as milder air aloft streams
east out of the Upper Midwest.

The WNW to WSW winds throughout the TAF forecast period will
be generally less than 10 kts.

Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail into Friday.

The overall pattern favors no big weather systems through the
upcoming weekend and into early next week, but frontal passages
with limited moisture are expected every few days.

Have a good Thanksgiving.

Outlook...

Fri...No sig wx expected.

Sat...Chance of rain/snow showers.

Sun...Chance of snow showers across the NW in the morning.
Otherwise no sig wx expected.

Mon...No sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Ross
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/RXR
AVIATION...Lambert/Martin


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