Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 272043
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
343 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR WED...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW TO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DID ADJUST WEATHER AND POPS SOME INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AS
THERE IS STILL SEVERAL BANDS OF SNOW ACROSS THE WEST...AND A FEW
WEAK RADAR RETURNS TO THE EAST.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LONG LIVED DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH ADDED ANOTHER 3-5 INCHES OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS IS NOW
PROPOGATING WSW...CAUGHT UP IN THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION AROUND THE
DEEP SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BLIZZARD. ADDITIONAL DEFORMATION
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ADDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MOST TO COVER THESE INTO
THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION...AND
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE WILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW DUE TO INCREASING NE WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH INTO TONIGHT.

SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WE`LL SEE WIND CHILLS DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WED 12Z REACHES SOUTHWEST PA BY
00Z THU...BRINGING RELAXING GRADIENTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
IMPROVING CONDS FOR THE ALLEGHENIES AS WELL. ELSEWHERE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE...BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO START THE DAY. MAXES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN TODAY IN THE N BUT COOLER
IN THE S...RANGING FROM LOWER 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL...HELPING MELT SOME
SNOW IN PARKING LOTS ETC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER. CURRENT FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

HOWEVER...WHILE NOT REAL COLD ALOFT...THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF BANDS OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY MID AFT. EXPECT
SOME SNOW INTO THE SE LATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...DID UP TEMPS SOME. DID NOT GO REAL WARM. DID UP
POPS. FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES FAST...SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF CWA AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE
NE. REDUCTIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS BEFORE SNOW GRADUALLY WANES. THE RESULT WILL BE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE MAINLY
VFR TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN


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