Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 281010
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
510 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TODAY.
WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. FAST WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH UPSTATE NY...BUT HEIGHTS START TO
RISE VERY SOON. BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING A NEW 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS.
TRANSIENT SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP A WIDESPREAD 3 INCHES FROM
OCCURRING. RIDGING WILL HELP TO DECREASE THE SNOW SHOWERS ROLLING
THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PA TO FLURRIES OR LESS BY LATE
THIS MORNING. COLDEST LLVL AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON...SO TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COLD...NOT RISING OUT OF THE
M20S NORTH AND M30S SOUTH. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES EAST AND GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD AND A
SHORT WAVE TRAVELING ALONG IT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. MEAGER MOISTURE MIGHT MAKE MEASURABLE SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION. THE FEATURE DRIVING THE SNOW
WILL BE VERY FAST-MOVING AND THE TIMING AND HEIGHTS OVERHEAD AT
THE TIME OF PASSAGE WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WHERE THE SNOW
FALLS. WILL BUMP POPS INTO LIKELIES FOR THE NRN HALF AND JUST A
LITTLE MORE WITH CHCS ELSEWHERE TO COVER THE UNCERTAINTIES. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ALMOST NIL ALONG THE MD BORDER...BUT COULD BE 2
INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP JUST 5-10F
WITH CLOUDS THICKENING UP AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY...AND THE LEFTOVER
LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE
EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
SATURDAY...AND WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND MINORLY MELTING SNOW
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WHICH COULD BEAR
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN. LIQUID PRECIP DEVELOPS OVER WRN AND NRN PA
LATE SAT AND ALMOST CERTAINLY ON SAT NIGHT. THE SFC TEMPS SAT
NIGHT COULD LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NRN TIER. WILL JUST ADD
IN A MENTION OF IT WITH THIS PKG BUT CALL IT RAIN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S BY SUNDAY.

MODELS SEEM TO BE BACK IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON APPROACH OF A FRONT
FOR MONDAY...THOUGH GFS/GEFS CONTINUE TO BE 6 TO MAYBE 12 HRS
FASTER WITH FROPA THAN THE ECMWF.

POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK IN FOR TUESDAY AS
LARGE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS S CANADA. MDLS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON LARGE FEATURES FOR NEXT WEEK. GFS DOES MAKE A MORE-
WET FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ALL MDLS SEEM TO
BE LATCHING ONTO THE FROPA NEXT FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE ENHANCED...OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE W MTNS. RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST IFR CONDS REMAIN LIKELY AT KJST/KAOO THRU ARND
11Z...THEN IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING
IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING -SHSN OVR THE W
MTNS TO DISSIPATE BY LATE AM...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS LIKELY BY
THIS AFTN. A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SAT AM.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...AM LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...MAINLY NORTH. LOW CIGS AT
KBFD POSS SAT NIGHT.

SUN...AM LOW CIGS/DZ POSS KBFD.

MON...LOW CIGS/SHRA POSS...MAINLY W MTNS.

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



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