Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 281128
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
528 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE
THE NORTHLAND...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

A COLD SATURDAY MORNING TO START THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO.
THE COLDEST AIR THIS MORNING IS BEING REPORTED THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD AND INTO PORTIONS OF NW WI.

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM PREPARES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS. MOST OF TODAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER N-CENTRAL MN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE FIRST OF TWO EMBEDDED SHRT WVS
ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE JUST A DUSTING OF SNOW
THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ARROWHEAD
POSSIBLY RECEIVING AROUND A HALF TO 1 INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD TONIGHT WITH AN ABUNDANT AMT OF CLOUD
COVER. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT DRAINING IN WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
CLOUDS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SECOND WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER NE MN. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA.  SOME EVENING LAKE EFFECT IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS MINIMAL FOR NOW.  MONDAY TO REMAIN QUIET WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY VERY INTERESTING
ACROSS THE REGION AS A SPLIT WAVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LAST THREE RUNS OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHEAST...EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
AROUND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY AS WE ARE CLOSE TO
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AND A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH IN THE TRACK COULD REALLY REDUCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL.  IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT SOUTH
DUE TO THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS
TIME.  HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE STILL HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE.

THE TUESDAY SYSTEM TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 26 BELOW NOT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BUT GETTING THERE.  MODERATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FOR THURSDAY AND WARMER YET FOR
FRIDAY.  HAVE GOT SOME UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S IN THERE FOR NOW BUT
ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO SHIFT THIS DOWN DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE TUESDAY SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AFTER
21Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH EACH SITE GETTING A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS. MVFR VISIBILITIES ALSO POSSIBLE
BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. MVFR
CEILINGS TO LINGER BEHIND PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT TO BEGIN TO CLEAR
TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 08Z.

LE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19   9  23   0 /  10  20  10   0
INL  23   5  20  -6 /  20  20  20   0
BRD  22   5  25   1 /  10  20  10   0
HYR  19   9  24  -1 /  10  20  20  10
ASX  22  12  26   3 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE







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