Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 231759 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1159 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL AREAS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND 23Z AS THE LOW-LEVELS
BEGIN TO COOL AND MIXING CEASES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY CONDITIONS BETWEEN 04Z-11Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AFTER AN ACTIVE 24-36 HOURS...THE WEATHER HAS CALMED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS...AND SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE IS A THREAT OF SOME FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD KEEP
THINGS IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE OCCURS. THE
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED TODAY...INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT...BUT RECENT RAINS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WHICH BROUGHT OUR RECENT RAIN IS NOW
EAST OF THE AREA AND A LARGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO
THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AND THIS
FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN PRETTY QUIET. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 60S MOST DAYS FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE NEXT POSSIBLE COLD FRONT WHICH WOULD BE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF SENDS IT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS
STALLS IT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT THAT
FAVORABLE FOR A FROPA GIVEN STRONG ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS IS DAY 7 AND WILL OPT TO
KEEP SOUTH WINDS PREVAILING IN THE FORECAST.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  45  63  40  61 /   0  -    0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  43  63  36  62 /   0  -    0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  45  65  39  64 /   0  -    0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            78  42  61  37  60 /   0  -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  45  65  39  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  43  62  37  60 /   0  -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             79  41  65  36  63 /   0  -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        80  44  64  38  63 /   0  -    0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  46  65  40  63 /  -   -    0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  46  65  41  64 /   0  -    0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           83  46  65  41  65 /   0  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






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