Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 221122
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
522 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.AVIATION...
The cold front has moved off to the east and drier air is moving into
the region. Skies have cleared at all of our TAF sites and dew point
temperatures have dropped significantly. VFR conditions will prevail
at all airports through this period. Winds have become northwesterly
and wind speeds will increase later this morning to 10 to 15 kts.
There could be some higher gusts, but not high enough to include in
the TAFs. Winds should drop below 10 kts by around sunset this
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
The cold front has moved east of the I-35 corridor and will continue
through the remainder of the southeast CWA before sunrise. Sunny
skies with dry northwest wind today. Elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions are expected today. Highs in the low to mid 60s
across the Hill Country and upper 60s to around 70 elsewhere. Clear
skies and light winds tonight should for a freeze tonight across the
Hill Country and some drainage areas near and east of I-35/north of
I-10. Highs rebound back into the low to mid 60s Tuesday under
mostly sunny skies.

FIRE WEATHER...
A dry northwest flow is expected today. 20-foot wind speeds will be
10-15 mph. However a 20-30kt 925mb flow will be in place through
midday, before weakening late afternoon, and momentum transfer
downward should allow for some surface gusts to around 20-25 mph
late morning through early afternoon. Wind speeds will gradually
decrease late afternoon through early evening. A window will occur
early afternoon where wind gusts are still occurring and RH values
are beginning to bottom out in the teens along and west of I-35 and
I-37 and low to mid 20s east. Given the fuel dryness across the Hill
Country and western CWA and forecast fire danger map from TFS will
word fire weather conditions as near-critical along and west of I-35
and elevated elsewhere.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
An increase in moisture will take place across the region Thursday
and Thursday night as southeast flow resumes and strengthens. This
could lead to patchy drizzle and isolated showers Thursday night into
Friday morning. Better chances for showers will come Friday into
Friday night as moisture deepens and forcing strengthens with
approach of upper level trough. That trough is forecast to send a
cold front through the area Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              66  36  64  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  32  63  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  34  64  36  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            63  33  62  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           68  35  66  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  33  63  33  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             68  32  66  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  34  65  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  38  64  36  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  35  65  38  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           69  36  64  38  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...Runyen


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