Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 292350
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRAS AND TSTMS ACROSS WILL IMPACT AREA BETWEEN
AUS AND SAT THROUGH 02Z...ENDING AROUND SUNSET. BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED TSRA IN AUS TAF...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY
STAYING N/S/W OF SAT/SSF TERMINALS. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DEVELOP FARTHER W ACROSS HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND MAY PERSIST AFTER SUNSET FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...AND
FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED TSRA MENTION IN DRT TAF 02Z-04Z.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CEILINGS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP 06Z-08Z ALONG I-35
CORRIDOR TAFS AND THEN POSSIBLY OUT NEAR LRD CLOSER TO 12Z. VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 15Z-17Z WITH SCT CU FIELD. LESS COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA ON SAT WITH NO MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO TEXAS WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE IN THE
GULF OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS A SURFACE
REFLECTION OVER THE GULF CENTERED EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST HAS WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
MOISTURE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. MARGINAL CAPE VALUES SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF
HIGH PW SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL
PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL MEAN SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER
EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREA EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  97  76  97  78 /  30  10  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  96  74  96  75 /  30  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  98  74  97  75 /  30  10  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  74  95  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  98  77  98  78 /  20  10  -   10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  95  76  95  78 /  30  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  97  73  97  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  75  96  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  95  76  95  77 /  30  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  98  77  98  78 /  30  10  10  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  98  77  99  77 /  30  20  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





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