Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 031126 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUD
DECK AT 6K-7K FEET HAS PUSHED BACK TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING. DO
EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. KDRT WILL SEE
LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. AFTER
00Z WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXPECT TO SEE SOME DRAINAGE
NWLY WINDS AT KSAT STARTING AROUND 08Z. KDRT WILL HAVE EAST WINDS
5-8 KNOTS AFTER 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A LONG WAVE
UPPER TROUGH WITH A COMPACT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE SOME UPPER LIFT MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY. FOR NOW...WE/LL CONTINUE TO A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SET TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THEN WARM CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND WARM FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MENTIONED PERIOD. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN TO THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU ON SATURDAY... THEN
SPREAD EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAN/T RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACTIVE WEATHER WITH THIS PATTERN...
ESPECIALLY IF THE DRYLINE BECOMES ACTIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  55  83  58  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  49  82  54  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     77  52  83  54  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  52  81  56  83 /   0  -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  56  86  59  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  52  81  55  83 /   0  -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             78  50  85  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  51  82  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  52  81  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  53  83  58  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  54  84  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24


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