Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
FXUS64 KEWX 110503
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1103 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016
.AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/
Periods of drizzle will continue to enhance low level saturation
over the I-35 terminals with some prevailing lifr cigs and vsbys
expected for much of the night. less precipitation should reach
the DRT area but saturation should be equally capable of lowering
cigs and vsbys through the night. With near calm conditions and
increasing stability moving into DRT by daybreak some 1/2 mile
vsbys or lower may develop. A general sw low level wind in the
daytime should break out most areas into vfr, but am not sure if
the AUS area will benefit from the improving conditions before
sunset. saturation should return to most areas for patchy fog by
late evening, with light winds suggesting some to be dense.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/
Numerous to widespread drizzle and light showers are ongoing
across the I-35 corridor, into the Coastal Plains and farther west
into the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau this evening.
Overall amounts will remain light with only 0.05 to 0.1 at most
expected overnight and through the entire day Sunday. As such,
drizzle/rain chances were increased overnight given observed
trends and further implied isentropic upglide support set to
continue into early Sunday. PWATs will increase the greatest over
east coastal Texas and into the Coastal Plains overnight through
Sunday morning. With greater moisture influx, temperatures will
stay steady if not slightly rise through the overnight. Patchy to
areas of fog will also occur given the saturated and cool
conditions in place. This will and has already allowed for
visibility drops down to less than a mile at times. Best light
rain chances will shift to the east Sunday morning into the
afternoon as a stronger shortwave trough passes through and ushers
in slightly drier air from the northwest.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
A mid-level disturbance pushing across the lee-side of the
Rockies is forecast to enhance rain chances across the area
tonight. As the short-wave moves to the east this evening into the
overnight hours, light showers are expected mainly along and east
of Highway 281. Can`t rule out isolated moderate showers across
the coastal plains where pwats will be around 1 inch overnight.
By late Sunday morning, the mid-level disturbance should be
across east Texas with clearing expected from west to east Sunday
afternoon. There may be some lingering moisture/clouds over the
far east counties, however, precipitation is not expected.
Overnight lows will be warmer than previous nights and ranging
from the mid 40s across the Hill Country to lower 50s across the
coastal plains. Sunday`s high temperatures should reach the mid to
upper 60s thanks to a lower south to southwesterly wind flow.
LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
A weak and dry cool front is expected to push across the northern
part of South-Central Texas on Monday. The frontal boundary is
forecast to dissipate across the area while a southwest boundary
layer flow takes control and brings high temps into the 70s.
Several warm and dry days are in store through the middle of next
week. Another weak and shallow frontal passage is expected
Wednesday evening into Thursday and brings slight to low end
chances for rain across the eastern two-thirds of South-Central
Texas. A third and much significant cold front is forecast for
next Saturday night into Sunday. Have introduced slight to low end
chances for rain across the northern part of the area for that
period. A cooler airmass in the wake of the frontal boundary
could bring back some mid 30s temps across the Hill Country Sunday
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 49 69 52 69 52 / 50 20 - - -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 50 68 53 69 52 / 40 20 - - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 49 67 53 71 55 / 50 20 - - -
Burnet Muni Airport 47 68 47 67 48 / 30 10 0 - 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 45 65 46 73 51 / 10 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 48 69 49 67 49 / 30 10 - - 0
Hondo Muni Airport 47 66 47 74 54 / 20 10 0 - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 49 67 53 70 53 / 50 20 - - -
La Grange - Fayette Regional 52 70 58 70 56 / 30 30 10 10 -
San Antonio Intl Airport 49 66 52 72 56 / 50 20 - - -
Stinson Muni Airport 49 67 54 73 56 / 40 20 - - -
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway