Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 211127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SE STATES TODAY...BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NW
GA TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA
DURING THE DAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
TODAY...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE NW CWFA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE FROM
THE NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY
NOTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
WEEK...AND WITH ONLY MARGINAL SURFACE INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK
SHEAR...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.

QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS...HOWEVER ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY 00Z-06Z WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WED AND THU KEEP THE
AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAT
BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW
CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU AFTERNOON
WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 12Z FRI.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM
THAN THE TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.THERE
IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH
HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE AND KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE MAINLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

01

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE A
WIND SHIFT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY...AS THEY SWITCH OVER TO THE S/SW.
SINCE SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT...THE DIRECTION COULD BE VARIABLE AT
TIMES. PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE TAFS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  57  77  54 /   0  10  60  20
ATLANTA         77  60  75  55 /   0  10  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     74  54  69  48 /   0  10  70  10
CARTERSVILLE    78  58  75  52 /   0  20  70  10
COLUMBUS        79  61  77  57 /   0  10  60  20
GAINESVILLE     76  57  75  52 /   0  10  70  20
MACON           78  57  83  56 /   0   5  50  20
ROME            79  58  75  50 /   0  30  70  10
PEACHTREE CITY  78  57  75  53 /   0  10  60  20
VIDALIA         77  57  83  60 /   0   5  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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