Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 171757
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
157 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST THIS MORNING BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS.
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM CENTRAL GA AS DRIER AIR IS INFILTRATING
AREA. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN ATL-AHN CORRIDOR AS CLEAR SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED SOME MORE HEATING THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS IN
THE ARE THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR A
LA GRANGE TO MILLEDGEVILLE LINE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SMALL
SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY POPPING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. THE
FRONT IS PROGGD TO SAG SOUTH TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER NORTH MS TRAVERSES THE STATE AND PROVIDES THE NEEDED PUSH.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING... THEN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL WARRANT SHOWING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA TODAY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL/DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... BRINGING A RAIN
FREE FORECAST TO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SPREADING IN OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND
THE SAGGING FRONT... RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS NORTH GA
TODAY... THEN ACROSS BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE
WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP SOUTHWARD
MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN
STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS
MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 5-10KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z...AND WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 6KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR NORTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW...HAVE A
SHIFT IN AT 15Z FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO MONITOR TIMING. NO WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  61  82  61 /  10  10  10  10
ATLANTA         86  63  84  65 /  10   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     79  56  79  55 /  10  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    84  57  84  60 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        90  63  87  66 /  10   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     84  62  82  62 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           90  62  86  63 /  10   5   5  10
ROME            84  57  86  59 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  87  56  84  61 /  10   0   5  10
VIDALIA         90  67  85  67 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...ATWELL





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