Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KFFC 241945
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
A welcomed relatively benign and low impact forecast on tap as a
mid/upper ridge of high pressure will dominate into Wednesday. We
should have pleasant mostly clear conditions with only some cirrus
skirting across the region and temp moderating back to well above
normal for Wed highs (which seems like the normal by now). Expect
many areas reaching the upper 60s to low 70s.

The next player in the forecast will be a relatively weak cold front
for Wednesday night into Thursday. Models are in good consensus on
this feature having a rather quick progression across the area with
somewhat limited moisture advection ahead. Given this and the
rather elongated orientation and low amplitude upper longwave
support...the environment looks like it fails to destabilize and
only scattered showers should accompany the fropa. Have generally
high end chance pops for most locations and limited likely to the
far north. Lows Wednesday night stay well above normal in the 40s
to 50s given the precip and associated cloud coverage.

Baker


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Synoptic pattern on Thursday characterized by amplifying mid level
cyclonic flow across northern US with lead shortwave centered across
Great Lakes region. This will initially keep the CWA on the backside
of mid level ridge in SW flow. Meanwhile at the sfc...low pressure
associated with lead shortwave across Great Lakes will have a cold
front draped to its S/SW that will extend all the way into the
Gulf. This cold front will be in the process of pushing through
the CWA Wednesday night into early Thursday...with showers located
in its vicinity. Although ample jet support and some shortwave
energy will help increase shower activity along the front...lack
of appreciable moisture return will limit QPF amounts and keep
showers light.

CAA advection behind the front will keep temps much cooler than
we`ve seen the last week or two on Thursday...esp across north
Georgia where the greater chances of lingering post-frontal strato-
cu will accompany cooler airmass. Opted to dry just about everyone
out by Thursday afternoon.

Sfc ridging will gradually work its way into the area...which
will keep us dry Friday. A sfc trough will likely develop on the
back side of the aforementioned frontal system...while in the mid
levels...cyclonic flow will be amplifying. With numerous vort
maxes in the vicinity...enough forcing could be realized to allow
a few flurries to spit out along highest terrain mountain counties
Saturday and particularly Sunday night. Deterministic GFS seems a
little too aggressive so have left out mention in the grids on
Sat night for now...thinking best chance will stay north of Ga
state line. A return to winter-like low temps and chilly afternoon
highs expected Friday-weekend.

Sfc trough will linger across mountain counties through late Sunday
when a reinforcing shot of cooler air pushes into the region as a
strong shortwave dives south toward the TN Valley. Opted to keep
forecast dry for now...but will watch trends for possibility of light
showers perhaps mixed with flurries across north Georgia on
Monday. Rest of the extended remains dry with seasonably cool
afternoons/cold nights.

Kovacik

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected thru period as ridge of high pressure
dominates regime going into Wednesday. Initial NW winds near 8-10
kts should weaken and shift SW under 5 kts tonight...then some low
end gusts possible Wednesday. Mostly clear skies going into this
evening then just FEW/SCT cirrus for most of Wednesday. Could have
some mid left clouds filtering in by Wednesday evening ahead of
next frontal system. Any chance for showers is beyond the TAF
period but should increase from NW after about 04z Thurs with
lowering cigs.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          41  69  50  54 /   0   0  40  30
Atlanta         44  68  48  50 /   0   5  50  20
Blairsville     36  63  42  45 /   0  10  60  20
Cartersville    40  68  44  47 /   0  10  50  10
Columbus        43  71  52  57 /   0   5  50  20
Gainesville     43  66  47  51 /   0   5  50  20
Macon           41  71  55  58 /   0   0  50  30
Rome            39  67  43  47 /   0  20  60  10
Peachtree City  40  69  48  52 /   0   5  50  20
Vidalia         44  72  59  64 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....Kovacik
AVIATION...Baker



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.