Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 021548
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1148 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK...HAVE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POP/WEATHER
GRIDS BASED UPON LATEST TRENDS OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH DRIFTING AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BUT STILL PLENTY OF
REMAINING MOISTURE TO GENERATE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NOW SHIFTED TO THE ERN CWA.
A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER N GA DRIFTS TO CENTRAL TO S GA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY TO THE
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD.

HIGHEST POPS 60-70 PERCENT OVER THE E TO 30-50 PERCENT OVER THE WEST TODAY
AND SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER THE FAR
ERN COUNTIES. HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE ERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND ALL BUT SOME OF THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE BUT LESS
SO THAN THE PAST 2 DAYS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT.

BDL

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
TOUGH AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. THE PROBLEM THE MODELS HAVE IS
WITH TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
SETS UP BEHIND THE TROUGH. FOR THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH BROAD
BRUSHING POPS EACH DAY.

17

AVIATION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
A MIXED BAG OF IFR-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR CU CEILINGS
DURING DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
FAVOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE AREA SLIGHTLY. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY
WNW LESS THAN 10 KTS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO FOG.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND VSBYS TODAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS AND IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  62  82  63 /  60  40  50  30
ATLANTA         81  64  82  65 /  50  30  40  20
BLAIRSVILLE     76  56  75  60 /  60  40  60  30
CARTERSVILLE    81  60  82  62 /  50  30  30  20
COLUMBUS        85  65  86  68 /  50  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     80  62  79  63 /  60  30  40  30
MACON           86  63  86  65 /  60  40  50  30
ROME            81  60  82  63 /  30  30  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  82  61  83  62 /  50  30  30  20
VIDALIA         85  67  85  68 /  70  60  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
AVIATION...


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