Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 271747
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1147 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

SNOWFALL GRADUALLY LIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL KEEP FLURRIES
TO PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IN THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE ONLY A TENTH OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WITH THESE
SNOWS AND BY LATE MORNING EVERYTHING SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA.
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THIS FORCING AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING THAT TO HELP A WHOLE LOT WITH ALL OF THE FRESH SNOW
COVER...SO HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

BY TONIGHT A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SCOOT THROUGH THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP OFF IN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT SO IF THEY ARE A LITTLE QUICKER THEN LOWS MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS FORECAST BUT FOR NOW WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

SUNDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AS ARCTIC FRONT
DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND APPROACHES. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ANY LIGHT SNOW MENTION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL BE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AND BE MOVING OVER THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER MUCH BETTER ON THIS PATTERN THAN
THEY WERE A DAY AGO. THE UNREASONABLY STRONG WAVE ON THE NAM AND THE
SUPPRESSING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE GFS AND EC HAVE ALL
CLOSED IN ON A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW WITH WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT BUT
STRONG THERMAL SUPPORT AS THE STRONG AND BROAD ARCTIC FLOW DEVELOPS.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT...PEAK OVER THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PUSH FAIRLY QUICKLY SOUTH MONDAY AS THE
ARCTIC AIR FLOWS IN AND THE GRADIENT IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA. AM
TEMPTED TO GO LIKELY POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE TIMING
QUESTIONS AND THE PASSING NATURE OF THE THERMAL SUPPORT HAVE KEPT ME
FROM THAT LEVEL...BELIEVE IT IS WORTH A PRETTY HIGH CHANCE INSTEAD
OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND VERY LOW CHANCE POPS WE HAD BEFORE FOR THIS
PERIOD. AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TOO GREAT DUE TO THE WEAK DYNAMIC
SUPPORT.

THE ARCTIC AIR WILL DRY THINGS QUICKLY BY LATE MONDAY. SKIES WILL
LIKELY BR CLEAR OT MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT IF CLOUDS DO NOT STALL
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER. SNOW COVER...FALLING
TEMPERATURES...AND LINGERING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS
INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE EASILY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A LITTLE LIGHTER
WINDS MAKING THE COLD SLIGHTLY LESS BITING TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL
ADVISORY LEVELS. TUESDAY LOOKS TO SEE SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO HIGHS
RIGHT NOW...THOUGH NOT SURE IT WILL GET VERY MUCH ABOVE ZERO.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMING IN THE
STRENGTHENING AND APPROACHING CANADIAN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FRIDAY AND THIS COULD BRING
ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW CHANCE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD SHOT THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WHICH IS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

ONLY CONCERN NEXT 24 H INVOLVES STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST
AREA OF STRATUS IS BETWEEN HURON AND MOBRIDGE. THIS STRATUS...IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURON AROUND 21Z AND WOULD
PERSIST FOR ABOUT 2 HOURS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF SIOUX FALLS AND SIOUX CITY. THE SECOND AREA OF STRATUS WILL BE
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA TOMORROW. CURRENT
SATELLITE HAS THESE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. BASED
UPON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THESE CLOUDS WOULD REACH HURON
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD READ KFSD BY 18Z
BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITION EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER


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