Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 241725 AAB
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
1125 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Fri...

Sending multiple enhanced short-term updates today to the
forecast grids today to try to keep things current and accurate
based on the latest observational data and radar and satellite
imagery. Significant compressional warming has occurred already
this morning with high temperatures soaring well above earlier
forecasts. Cold front has already entered Phillips County.

BMickelson

Sent an update this morning to simply bring the Today / Tonight
forecast grids into line with the latest near short term model
data. One exception might be that we are forecasting winds today a
bit on the higher side of model consensus, but given the nature,
timing, and history of this type of storm systems and the track on
which it is approaching our region, we feel it is better to err on
the side of caution. Sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph are certainly
expected with gusts easily reaching up to 50 or 55 mph. But those
habitually gusty sites, maybe more exposed on ridge tops or other
higher elevations could also easily see some stronger winds,
reaching into the high wind warning criteria between now and later
this evening. We`ll see how it plays out. Satellite and radar
imagery already showing some showers initiating over our western
and southern zones.

BMickelson

Previous short term discussion: Upper low beginning to move from
British Columbia into southern Alberta early this morning. As the
low pushes toward Saskatchewan today, a cold front will march
across the state. Low level southeasterly flow ahead of the front
not particularly strong but could pull enough moisture northward
for a few thunderstorms to develop, mainly in the Yellowstone
Valley this afternoon and evening with the frontal passage.

Behind the front, deep westerly flow with tight gradient and cold
air advection, coupled with jet streak, will bring very strong
winds across northern Montana. Timing of front keeps the strongest
winds over the northwest zones so area of the High Wind Warning
still on track. Downslope flow will contribute to the drying of
the airmass behind the front, and with recent dry conditions, fire
weather concerns remain elevated.

Winds decouple some tonight but expected to increase again on
Thursday as the low moves toward Manitoba. Moisture wrapping
around the system, and instability with cold air advection should
bring some showers to mainly the northern zones.

Ebert


.LONG TERM...Fri night through Wed...
An upper low situated over southern Saskatchewan Thursday night
will shift southeast toward the Upper Midwest over the weekend.
Northeast Montana will be under the influence of this weather
feature through at least this time with cool weather conditions
with the associated lower 500mb heights. As the closed low tracks
by the area expect isolated to widely scattered chances for
showers for portions of the CWA over the weekend.

Low pressure will push further downstream of the region in the
upcoming week as an upper ridge becomes established over Montana.
The ridge axis will likely reach eastern Montana around Thursday
or Friday per 00z model guidance. This pattern will lead to
largely dry weather conditions and warmer temperatures. In fact,
current indications suggest that highs will return to the 70s by
the midweek. Maliawco


&&

.AVIATION...

Big story: Winds

Flight category: Mainly VFR.

Synopsis: Strong gusty winds will be present today across all of
northeast Montana as an upper trough pushes in out of British
Columbia. This morning gusty southeast winds will rule, but the
afternoon will bring a wind shift to the northwest as a cold front
sweeps through. Wind gusts could approach 50kts at times, with
sustained winds of 30-40kts behind the front this afternoon. Winds
will taper off some after sundown, but will stay gusty overnight.
Expect another breezy day on Thursday, but winds will not be as
strong as today.

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon
and evening along the cold front.

Gilchrist



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A strong low pressure system and attendant cold front pushes
through the region tomorrow, bringing with it anomalously dry and
windy conditions in the western half of the district, and chances
for showers and thunderstorms in the east. As a result there will
be a Red Flag Warning out for low RHs and strong winds on
Wednesday.

Thursday through Tuesday: Main feature for this time period,
a closed low pressure system over southern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba. This pattern is forecast to bring a cool northernly
flow with embedded weak weather systems producing brief isolated
light showers. A stronger weather system is forecast to wrap
southward across NE Montana on Monday with the possibility of cool
and windy northerly winds.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Garfield...
Northern Phillips...Northern Valley...Petroleum...Southwest
Phillips.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for MTZ120-134>137.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow



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