Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 231019
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
419 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS MOVE ON SHORE. THIS
LOW WILL THEN TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

LEE SIDE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL MONTANA TODAY WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN MONTANA WITH DEW POINTS POTENTIAL REACHING THE MID 60S
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY AND
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT COULD RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES MONTANA LATE TONIGHT...THE LEE LOW
WILL BE SHOVED EASTWARD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE
MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES FOLLOWING IN
THE AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING EXPECTED WITH THESE CONDITIONS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. WITH FALLING
DEW POINTS ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IN THE EAST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
FAR EAST WILL THE FRONT PROGRESS BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY...FOR A COOL AND
WINDY DAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE DYNAMIC AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM
MID-WEEK WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A MORE CALM AND BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL SPREAD A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST THROUGH OUR
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES. WAS NOT EVEN CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
THIS TO MENTION SPRINKLES IN THE GRIDS...SO KEPT POPS HIGH SILENT
FOR NOW.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SYNOPTICALLY...THIS RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BRINGING QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST
MONTANA FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ONE DISCREPANCY IS EVIDENT AS THE GFS WANTS TO ALLOW A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE RIDE UP AND AROUND THE CREST OF THE RIDGE THROUGH OUR
CWA ON TUESDAY. AGAIN...THIS COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH I INCLUDED IN THE NAME OF COLLABORATION...BUT
AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS LACKING... IT MAY SIMPLY RESULT IN A FEW
SPRINKLES. WOULD BE GOOD TO FOLLOW SUBSEQUENT TRENDS TO MORE
CLOSELY ADJUST THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. BUT AS PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE ESE INTO
THE 20G30 MPH RANGE...LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AND MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KGGW...KOLF...AND KSDY WITH
STRONGER ERRATIC WINDS AND SOME IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IF A STORM
HAPPENS TO PASS NEARBY. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SURE. EXPECT
AMENDMENTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BMICKELSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING...PROMPTING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 134 THROUGH 137.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ134>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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