Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGGW 102144
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
244 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME
LIGHT SNOW WHICH MAY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR A
WINTRY MIX. AS THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM
SOLUTIONS DECIDED TO RAMP UP TO LIKELY POPS. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO
TRENDED A LITTLE HIGHER. MAIN IMPACTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
FREEZING FOG CONDITIONS AS WELL. THIS MAY BE ENHANCED IF
PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO A NEARLY SATURATED AIR MASS...ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 30S NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
ON THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAY TRANSITION OVER TO PLAIN
RAIN.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH FRONT OFF TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION
MAY APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT
ADVANCING WEATHER SYSTEM. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE ECMWF, THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
HITTING THE AREA WITH A SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELIES IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION FALLING AS
FREEZING RAIN. THIS SEEMS TO BE WORTHY OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK STATEMENT AND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FUTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

JET STREAM STAYS RATHER ACTIVE AND STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE PAINTING MORE MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO THE
AREA BUT ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENTS AND TIMING, SO HAVE
LEFT POPS MAINLY AT SLIGHT CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH MODELS ALREADY OUT OF
PHASE WITH EACH OTHER SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL LESS THAN
AVERAGE. MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST
PROBLEMS AND CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND THE APPROACHING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL CUT A BRIEF COLD FRONT THROUGH NE MONTANA
TO REPLACE THE LARGER-SCALE WESTERN STATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM EARLIER IN THIS COMING WEEKEND.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THE EC AND GEM MODELS ARE
VERY WET THROUGH OUR CENTRAL CWA WHILE THE GFS AND DGEX ARE VERY
DRY.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS FILL IN WITH PRECIP THROUGH MOST
OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME CENTRAL CWA LOCATIONS COULD STILL BE
QUITE DRY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME PERIPHERY
LOCATIONS COULD BE QUITE WETTER.

BY MONDAY MORNING...AN OVERALL NW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE REGION
AND DRIES THINGS OUT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...ONLY
TO BE FOLLOWED BY MORE MODEL DISAGREEMENT COME MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE EC WANTS TO PUSH THROUGH AN
EMBEDDED UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES...TRIED TO BLEND THE BEST CONSENSUS I
COULD FIND...USING THE LATEST DEVELOPED TOOLS TO DISCERN THE
TRANSITION TO AND FROM RAIN AND SNOW. THE MAIN IMPACT OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A NARROW BAND OF SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN
SEPARATING LARGER AREAS OF SNOW TOWARD THE NE AND RAIN TOWARD THE
SW. COULD SEE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
NE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WITH ALL REMAINING MODEL DISAGREEMENTS THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK...JUST TRIED TO BLEND THE OVERALL IDEA WITH SILENT POPS FOR
NOW UNTIL THEY COME BETTER INTO LINE WITH EACH OTHER. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THURSDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING IN COLD MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT KEEPING CEILINGS AT LOW MVFR/IFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR SNOW
LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL TURN CLOCKWISE TONIGHT BUT NOT GENERALLY BE STRONGER
THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT EAST WINDS THURSDAY
MORNING TURNING NW LATE IN THE DAY. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.