Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 242100
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
300 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Fri...
An upper level low pressure system across southern Saskatchewan
will continue to bring isolated to widely scattered showers to
parts of northeast Montana through this evening. The tight
pressure gradient over the area will also allow gusty northwest
winds to persist for a few more hours today.

Later tonight the winds will diminish and surface high pressure
over the area will bring drier weather conditions into Thursday.
However, the upper level trough will persist in the vicinity and
so cooler weather conditions will continue with highs below
climate averages.

The next shortwave trough will push through with a cold front into
Friday with a new chance for showers. Maliawco


.LONG TERM...Fri night through Wed...

AFTERNOON UPDATE:
Changes to the forecast were minor. Ridge from Sunday through
Monday looks like its starting to amplify slightly which is
increasing temperatures during these periods. Rain chance increase
after the ridge topples over late in the weekend, but southwest
to zonal flow incoming early next week is still a bit chaotic and
timing or QPF totals are still low confidence. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION:
The extended forecast period is dominated by a fairly progressive
weather pattern which is expected to provide only fleeting chances
for some scattered precipitation across portions of northeast
Montana. Daily temperatures are not expected to fluctuate very
much given that the progressive nature of the flow aloft will
basically keep the warmer temperatures well to our south and the
cooler temperatures well to our north.

Overall synoptic flow shows good model agreement. The
inconsistencies in the resultant model precip amounts and
placement therefore lie in the subtle smaller-scale details, which
will eventually get worked out over time. At any rate, the
extended forecast looks to be fairly uneventful, which for this
time of year could easily result in some relatively comfortable
late summer days. BMickelson


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR-VFR

SYNOPSIS: the backside of a low pressure system is dropping
through northeastern Montana. MVFR ceilings will will steadily
rise to VFR after 21Z with winds calming at roughly 03Z.

WINDS: NW 15-25G35 kts through sundown... then 5-10 kts through
tonight.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening For Fort Peck
Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern
Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow



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