Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 291514 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
914 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A CIRCULATING COMA CLOUD
CENTER OVER THE DIVIDE THIS MORNING...GIVING NORTHEAST MONTANA A
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. ALSO CLEARLY SHOWING IS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WHICH IS ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR SKIES IN OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES. RADAR IMAGERY IS NOT PICKING UP ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING A WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZE THIS MORNING THAT WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10-15KT. FEW CHANGES ARE NECESSARY FOR THE
UPDATE.

SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL WEAKEN ITS GRIP ON THE
WEATHER FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
CANADA PUSHES SOUTH. OTHER THEN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE MOST RECENT
PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WARMEST READING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS INCREASE A LITTLE
TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH...BUT SHOULD
STAY BELOW LAKE WIND CRITERIA. BY THE WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL SETTLE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. EBERT



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SYNOPTIC SETUP... A TROUGH RUNS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND COLORADO. A LARGE RIDGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT AND RUNS FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH IDAHO AND INTO ALBERTA AND THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO
LARGE FEATURES UNDER THE WARMER SIDE OF NORTHEASTERN FLOW ALOFT.
FARTHER WEST... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS JUST OFF
THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL GROW IN
STRENGTH AND SLOWLY RAMP UP TEMPERATURES WHILE KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... CORE OF THE RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA, FURTHER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD... RIDGE WILL TOPPLE OVER AND ALLOW
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ENTER MONTANA DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD
BEGIN PUSHING US INTO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH ENHANCED JETS,
GIVING RISE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS.   GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: VFR. WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CREATE EXCELLENT
FLYING CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS: EAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS MORNING... INCREASING TO 10
TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



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