Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 211536
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
936 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...OVERALL THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY
ADJUSTMENT MADE FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING. GILCHRIST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS
SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TODAY
BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT THE INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

COOLER WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVEN WITH
UPPER RIDGE REBOUND OVER THE STATE. EBERT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST TO SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE MONTANA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TERMINATES IN A
TROUGH WELL OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST`S COASTLINE. BEHIND THAT
TROUGH THERE IS A ANOTHER RIDGE LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS
REMAINING BOTTLED UP OVER THE ARCTIC.

PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH EACH FEATURE MENTIONED
ABOVE MARCHING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA AS THE FORECAST READS
ON. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE...NO PERIODS STAND OUT
AS BEING DEFINITIVE FOR RAIN AND THEREFORE HAVE GONE CLOSE TO
CLIMO OR JUST BELOW IT WITH POPS. ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
INTRUDE INTO THE PASSING TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREE OVERALL BY MONDAY. THE
CONFIDENCE DROP OFF POINT APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ARCTIC INTRUSION. ANY FORECAST FROM THAT POINT ON
IS CURRENTLY SUSPECT WITH THE RIDGE AT THE END OF THE CHAIN
MENTIONED ABOVE POSSIBLY NEVER ARRIVING AT ALL. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: RIDGE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS: SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE END OF THE
TAF CYCLE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS BUT IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE DIRECTLY FOR MOST SITES. KGGW DOES LOOK HIGH ENOUGH
TO AT LEAST HAVE A MENTION OF VCSH.

AREA WINDS: 5 TO 15 KTS AND SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY...THEN FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






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