Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 311928
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  THE WINDS WILL ALSO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE
AROUND 20 FOR THE EVENING TRICK-OR-TREATERS.  THE WEEKEND WEATHER
LOOKS MUCH QUIETER WITH SUNSHINE EACH DAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
COOLISH.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40.  SUNDAY WILL WARM A BIT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL TO 45 TO 50 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE SYSTEM WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.  THE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND
HAVE ADJUSTED THE END TIME TO WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST COUNTIES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
IT WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.  THIS WILL TAKE THE REMAINDER OF
THE SNOW WITH IT.  WE WILL ALSO SEE A FETCH COMING OFF LAKE HURON AS
THE FLOW WILL BE 010-020.  THIS MAY HELP LINGER THE LIGHT SNOW UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF INGHAM AND JACKSON COUNTIES.  AFTER
MIDNIGHT SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR LEADING TO LOWS IN THE 20S.

THE 010-020 FLOW WILL ALSO CAUSE THE STRONGER WINDS TO LINGER OVER
THE SE CWA A BIT LONGER THAN MOST OF THE CWA.  WITH THIS IN MIND
WILL ADJUST THE END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY TO SUNDOWN EXCEPT FOR
SOME OF THE SE COUNTIES.  WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THERE THROUGH
06Z TONIGHT.

CALMER AND FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.  SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN...SO EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.  RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN ON SUNDAY AND TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LIMITED CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM. GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH CENTERED ON TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS
LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO FRIDAY WHEREAS THE ECWMF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY GIVEN THE RIDGING...BUT RAIN SHOULD
QUICKLY SPREAD IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW THEN SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY TAP
SOME GULF MOISTURE WHILE THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM WILL BE MORE OF A
QUICK MOVING CLIPPER. THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE WITH THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM AS IT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS UP IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. HIGHS COOL A BIT
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BACK INTO THE 40S WHICH WILL IS BACK TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A TREND OF IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
ALL SITES HEADED TO VFR BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. PRECIP TYPE
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE SNOW. THE SNOW
SHOULD END AT THE TAF SITES BY AROUND 00Z...ENDING THE LATEST
TOWARDS 00Z AT KJXN. KMKG IS ABOUT DONE WITH PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME AND KGRR IS ABOUT TO END AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT
PRESENT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING TO VFR AT PLACES
LIKE KMKG AND KGRR THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRYING NORTH
FLOW ERODES THE CLOUDS. KLAN AND KJXN WILL BE THE LAST TO LOSE THE
MVFR CEILINGS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. THEY
WILL BE IMPACTED BY A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE TAPERING BACK SOME
THEREAFTER. KJXN AND KLAN WILL CARRY SOME WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN THE WIND OFF OF LAKE HURON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NORTH GALES CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WILL
SIMMER DOWN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.  IT WILL TAKE AWHILE
FOR THE LAKE TO CALM DOWN.  SO ONCE WE PULL THE GALES DOWN WE WILL
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BELOW BANK FULL STAGES AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE
RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ037>040-043>046-
     050>052-056>058-064-065-071-072.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ059-066-067-073-074.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...JK









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