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000
FXUS63 KGRR 260300
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA BUT WE WILL REMAIN DRY
BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY NUDGE TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WE
MOVE FROM MEMORIAL DAY INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN...ESSENTIALLY THE NORTHEAST SIX COUNTIES OF THE CWA...FROM
LAKE OVER TO CLARE AND NEWAYGO OVER TO ISABELLA COUNTIES. DEW POINTS
UP THAT WAY REMAIN VERY DRY IN THE LOWER 30S. WITH THE THICKER CLOUD
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THAT AREA...DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LIGHT
WINDS...FROST IS LIKELY ALONG WITH TEMPS DIPPING WELL INTO THE 30S.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT
OUR DIRECTION FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ILLINOIS AND SEE THIS ACTIVITY PRESSING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
TIME. IT WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE STATE.

PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO NOSE INTO THE AREA MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING A DRY AIR MASS. FEEL IT WILL MAKE
ITS BEST PUSH INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LIFTING SLOWING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WITH TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA REGIME IN THE WARM SECTOR.
MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S.

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADS TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MINIMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER IN SOUTHWEST MI. SO WE ARE
PREDICTING THAT THE VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
06Z MON. AFTER THAT ...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

LOW WAVES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AN
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY WILL BEGIN
TO BRING UP WAVE HEIGHTS...BUT THE FLOW WILL BE OFF SHORE SO
NEARSHORE WAVES WILL REMAIN LOW. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A WARM
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST WITH TIME FROM THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR MASS WILL PRESS IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. RH VALUES WILL
DIP TOWARD 30 PCT AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

ONLY 2 RIVER ADVISORIES REMAIN FROM THE RECENT HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...SCOTTVILLE AND MT. PLEASANT. DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE AS
CRESTS MOVE DOWNSTREAM. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
NEXT WEEK...WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ038>040-
     044>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
FIRE WEATHER...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE