Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 021951
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
951 AM HST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLANDS INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADE SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A LATE SEASON FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CAUSING OUR WINDS TO WEAKEN AND
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ALLOWING SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY. THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR KAUAI BY THE END OF THIS WEEK...THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH TRADE WINDS RETURNING DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS INTO
THE WINDWARD SLOPES THIS MORNING WHILE LEEWARD LOCATIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AREAS AND
MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WHILE LEEWARD LOCATIONS WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT
TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD KAUAI AND OAHU AS INCREASING MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE IS PRODUCING THE ISLAND
TRADE WINDS...AND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND HAWAII...OR ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF OAHU...WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE STATE WITH AN EXPECTED ARRIVAL
TIME OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS TO MAINLY
WINDWARD AREAS WITH SOME SHOWERS SPILLING OVER TO LEEWARD
LOCATIONS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

TRADE WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS WINDS VEERING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES FORMING OVER
LEEWARD AREAS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NORTH OF KAUAI FRIDAY
WITH SEA BREEZES AGAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEA
BREEZES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER INTERIOR
AREAS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REMNANT
FRONTAL MOISTURE PROVIDING SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS BUT THERE MAY
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT PHLI AND PHTO IN PASSING SHRA. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES AS
MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES INTERACTS WITH TERRAIN.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND
IMMEDIATELY S THROUGH W OF MOUNTAINS ALL ISLANDS AS BREEZY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR THE WINDIER WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...AS WELL AS THE KAIWI
CHANNEL. THE SCA WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS
DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. LOOK FOR TRADE WINDS TO REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY. A
NEW SMALL LONGER PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
NOTICEABLE BUMP IN SURF HEIGHTS ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES FOR
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY LARGER SOUTH SWELL IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TRADE
WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SHORT PERIOD SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
BURKE...AVIATION


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