Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 252002
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM A FRONT WILL KEEP MANY WINDWARD
AREAS CLOUDY AND RAINY TODAY. THE WEATHER WILL TURN DRIER AND
SUNNIER MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK...AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH NEAR THE ISLANDS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 620 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI NEAR 29N166W. THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE HIGH IS PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS OVER THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL
CLOUD BAND OVER THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS...MAKING WINDWARD
AREAS QUITE CLOUDY AND WET TODAY. MOISTURE FROM THE OLD FRONT IS
QUITE SHALLOW NEAR KAUAI...BUT BECOMES GRADUALLY DEEPER TOWARDS THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. THE 200 AM BALLOON SOUNDING FROM LIHUE SHOWED
LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE 5400 FEET...WHILE THE 200 AM HILO SOUNDING
SHOWED MOISTURE UP TO 9400 FEET. THE SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM KAUAI TO
MOLOKAI WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN AND THE MOISTURE
WILL BE TOO SHALLOW TO REACH THE LEEWARD SIDES. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL SUPPORT MODERATE SHOWERS AND MUCH
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.

THE HIGH NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN THE
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH THE MOISTURE FROM THE OLD FRONTAL BAND OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS AND CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL DECREASE.
CLEARING WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE BIG ISLAND WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY AND WET THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE HIGH MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
THE ISLANDS WILL BECOME RATHER DRY AND STABLE STARTING MONDAY AND
RAINFALL WILL BECOME SPARSE. A RIDGE TRAILING WEST FROM THE HIGH
WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY THURSDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.  WINDS OVER THE
ISLANDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND VOG WILL INCREASE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL RUNS HAVE HAD A FRONT PUSHING DOWN PAST THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHILE OTHERS HAVE BEEN STALLING THE FRONT
FARTHER NORTH. IN EITHER CASE IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR/ISOL IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES OVER NE AREAS ON MOST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. AIRMETS FOR MTN OBSC ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH AT LEAST 26/04Z FOR MOST ISLANDS. LANAI MAY BE AN EXCEPTION
SINCE THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IS BEING BLOCKED BY MAUI.

STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND STRONG AND LOW INVERSIONS WILL CREATE
TURBULENCE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO FOR
THIS TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 26/16Z...AND
MAY BE EXTENDED BEYOND THAT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTHWEST SWELL AFFECTING THE ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH TUESDAY. SURF FROM THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY.

THE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE NEAR-GALE FORCE TRADE
WINDS IN THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND STRONG WINDS OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG TRADE WINDS
AND A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS CREATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...
SCA...CONDITIONS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WE EXPECT TO DROP THE
SCA FOR SOME AREAS BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES. THE SCA
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE WINDIER ZONES AROUND THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI THROUGH MONDAY EVENING OR LATER.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI AND NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI.

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 600 PM THIS EVENING FOR WEST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM MONDAY FOR WATERS AROUND THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI.

&&

$$
DONALDSON






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