Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 071513
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1013 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING WIND PARALLEL CLOUD STREETS OVER THE
AREA...WITH A STRONGER BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STIKES STREAMING
INTO JEFFERSON AND FAR EASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTIES. STILL VERY HOT
AND HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

MADE FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A
TAD FAR SE ZONES GIVEN CONVERGENCE BAND AND STREAMER SHOWERS
IMPACTING THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THINK 20 PERCENT AREAL
COVERAGE AS PER GOING FORECAST IS ON TARGET. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW PASSING SHRA BUT NOTHING THAT IS
IMPACTING ANY TERMINALS. WILL MENTION VCSH FOR KLBX/LGLS FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THAT COMES OFF THE GULF.

CIGS THIS MORNING ARE MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR FOR
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO. KCLL HAD SOME BREIF IFR CIGS BUT THOSE LOOK TO BE
LIFTING. EXPECT VFR CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS THE REST OF THE DAY.
LOOK FOR A REPEAT OF CIGS FOR TONIGHT INTO WED AM.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM S/SE AND MAY BECOME QUITE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20KTS IN A FEW SPOTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5-10KTS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROAD WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 4 THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE
COAST AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND WITH A LITTLE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAN YDAY. A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3 AM HAVE BEEN WANING BUT EXPECT THAT THEY
WILL REDEVELOP TOWARD MORNING.

TODAY EXPECTING THE MOISTURE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH THE HRRR BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN. 1.6-1.75" PW SHOULD BE PRESENT BY AROUND NOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP.
NAM SOUNDING SHOWS IT UNCAPPED AT 21Z WITH 2500J/KG AND DCAPE NEAR
1100J/KG BUT THE MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED. GFS ISN`T AS
UNSTABLE AND APPEARS TO SHOW THE SUBSIDENT WARMING GOING ON AT
700MB AS OF 00Z IN THE CRP SOUNDING AND UA ANALYSIS. WILL CARRY 20
POPS SOUTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35KTS IN THE STRONGER ONES THAT DO
FORM. STORM MOTIONS APPEARS FAST ENOUGH AND MORE ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE CELLS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOODING THREAT. THESE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR BEFORE 6 PM.

A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING TOWARD THE COAST BUT
DRIER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF LIFTS NORTH AND STRENGTHENS
WEDNESDAY THEN EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST BLANKETING MS/LA/TX BY
FRI. A WEAK UPPER S/W BOUNCING ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
MOVES OUT OF LA INTO TX FRIDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW PICKING UP SOME
OF POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LA/NC GULF AND SPREADING IT INTO
SETX FRIDAY. IF THE CAP ISN`T TOO STRONG THIS MAY BE THE DAY WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK SHOULD BE AT NORMAL OR ABOVE BY
A FEW DEGREES AND MINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDEX READINGS EACH DAY IN THE
95-103 DEGREE RANGE. TROPICS ARE QUIET AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND MORE LIKELY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN
MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO SURGE UP INTO THE GULF NEXT TUESDAY.
45

MARINE...
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS IN OFFSHORE AREAS WITH SEAS AROUND 4-5FT. CAUTION
FLAGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
AROUND 15KTS FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER TX COAST. CAUTIONS MAY BE
NEEDED INTO TONIGHT AND WED MORNING UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THRUSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-4FT NEAR
SHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS CLOSER
TO 3FT.

39

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  77  94  75  93 /  20   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  78  94  76  92 /  20   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  82  90  81  90 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99


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