Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281132
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
632 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
CREEPING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY... AND WILL START THE
TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT COLLEGE STATION WITH
TEMPORARY IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT HUNTSVILLE AND CONROE.
ADDITIONALLY... VISIBILITIES FROM FOG AT SUGAR LAND HAVE BEEN
FLUCTUATING IN BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. EXPECT CEILINGS AND FOG TO
LIFT/SCATTER OUT WITH SOME HEATING BY MID-MORNING... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 15Z. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE NEAR THE HOUSTON TERMINALS FROM
A BAY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AS THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISO SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS SE TX TODAY WITH PWS
LINGERING AROUND 2" AND ABUNDANT HEATING. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKE-
LY BE REPEATED TOMORROW...GIVEN HOW LITTLE THE OVERALL WX PATTERN
CHANGES. HOWEVER CHANGES ARE COMING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE WEST AND A WEAK FRONT EDGES INTO THE CWA (COURTESY OF THE DE-
VELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT) WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK OF POPS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS. BUT OF NOTE WITH THESE LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS...THE RIDGING TO THE WEST PROGGED TO BE A BIT STRONGER/FURT-
HER EAST THAN RUNS OVER THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
POPS HAVE BEEN DROPPING A BIT AS THE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WEAKNESS
REGION OVER US SHIFT EAST. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT WITH THIS TREND
SO WILL BE KEEPING WITH PREVIOUS POPS FOR THUR/FRI/SAT. TEMPS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HOT SIDE IF LONG-RANGE GUID-
ANCE VERIFIES. 41

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... INCREASING SLIGHTLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS
THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE THE BUILDING INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE LIMITS DEVELOPMENT. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  78  98  78  99 /  10  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              98  78  99  78  99 /  10  10  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  82  92  82  92 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...14



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