Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 252057
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
357 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move throughout SE
Texas for the rest of the afternoon and into this evening. Some of
these storms have been producing some pretty impressive rainfall
rates, however storm motion has been good enough to prevent
impacts from getting beyond minor street flooding. Worse impacts
will be possible if storms begin to train over the same area.
Gusty winds in excess of 40 mph and frequent lightning have also
been observed with the stronger storms.

Short term guidance has not been performing very well today, which
has made this forecast somewhat frustrating. Current thinking is
that some of the showers and storms should begin to diminish after
the loss of daytime heating later this evening, with some
convection remaining over the Brazos Valley and coastal waters
throughout the night. Showers and thunderstorms are again
forecast throughout SE Texas tomorrow as a cold front approaches
from the NW. Similar to today, these storms may produce locally
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Rain chances
begin to diminish overnight tomorrow night as the front pushes
through our CWA. Coastal showers and storms are expected Tuesday
as the front hangs out near the coast before finally pushing
further into the Gulf. After that, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern through at least next weekend, keeping SE Texas
nice and dry through at least next weekend. Temperatures behind
the front will also be much more pleasant, with highs generally in
the 80s and lows around the 60s. 11

&&

.MARINE...
Very few changes made to the ongoing marine forecast. Look for
southeast winds to gradually veer to the ENE overnight as a weak
frontal boundary sags into the region. Speeds will increase a bit on
Tuesday as the boundary moves a bit further offshore and drier air
filters in. A reinforcing frontal boundary pushes into the waters
later in the week...maintaining the NE flow.

Tide levels are currently running 1/2-1 foot above normal, and
probably remain that way for the next several days, but am expecting
them to remain levels that cause impacts.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      72  82  67  82  65 /  50  30  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)              74  88  71  84  68 /  30  50  30  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            79  86  76  83  75 /  40  50  40  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...47



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