Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 241804
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
104 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
WRAP AROUND OF THE VORTICITY CENTER MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE
TERMINAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER KCLL...KUTS...AND
KCXO. THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY
THIN OUT ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON HEATING. IF THIS OCCURS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP. HOWEVER...BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ON MONDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40
GIVES THE TIMING FOR THE START OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE ONSET OF
STORMS COULD BE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...BUT FELT THAT UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COULD BE AN INHIBITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING
THAT TIME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP IS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE
CANCELLED FFA FOR MOST OF REGION AND WILL EXPIRE EXTREME SE
COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS RAIN TAPERS OFF THERE. DO THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME MORE SCT DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAT INTO THE LOWER
80S LATER THIS AFTN. LARGE COMPLEX IN NW GULF WILL HAMPER INFLOW
IN THE SHORT TERM. COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT THINK OVERALL FF THREAT IS LOW IN THE
SHORT TERM. WILL RE-EVALUATE THINGS LATER THIS AFTN FOR THE
EXPECTED NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  73  82  72  86 /  50  50 100  70  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  74  82  75  85 /  40  50  90  70  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  78  83  77  84 /  90  50  80  70  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...LIBERTY.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40


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