Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 191421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS INDIANA AND INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW WAS IN PLACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE COMFORTABLE
UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDING REMAIN QUITE DRY AS INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE ONCE AGAIN...THUS NO CU IS
EXPECTED. THUS WILL AIM FOR SUNNY SKIES. GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THICKNESSES AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BMG.

FOG HAS BEEN MUCH LESS PREVALENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...OR THAN
WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/JAS

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