Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 011440
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1040 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IR IMAGES
FAIL TO SHOW ANY CLOUDS IN INDIANA. COOL NW FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 90S FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS WILL LOOKS FOR A FEW ISOLATED CU POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN
OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND EXTENDED SUN...ONGOING FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF



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