Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 240555
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1255 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1241 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

Cool and mainly cloudy conditions will persist into tonight and
Wednesday. A few snow showers or flurries will also remain
possible. Thursday into Friday will feature a nice moderating
trend with highs possibly exceeding 50 degrees Friday. This will
be followed by rain chances Saturday and cooler conditions Sunday
into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Lingering moist/cyclonic flow in the low levels will keep clouds and
perhaps a few flurries around into tonight. Models do suggest some
lake enhancement in wnw flow which could result in slightly more
organized snow shower activity into nw IN and sw MI. However,
coverage/chances appear limited by marginal 10-12C delta T`s and
bulk of moisture below the -10C level. This potential lack of
ice crystal formation could result in some drizzle or just
dry/cloudy/cool conditions.

A shortwave swinging through in wnw flow will help sustain thermal
troughing and mostly cloudy conditions tomorrow. Good mid-upper
level Q-vector convergence noted in model land with this feature,
though lacking moisture should limit any precipitation to flurries
at best.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

The second half of the work week will feature a nice moderating
trend and dry conditions as the next upper ridge builds over Eastern
NOAM in progressive/pacific dominate pattern. Low level ridge over
the area Wednesday will shift off to the east Thursday with
southwest flow really deepening/strengthening into Friday. This
will allow for a breezy Friday and the potential for temps to
overachieve.

The next pacific origin upper trough and its associated cold front
will progress through this weekend with renewed chances for rain
showers on Saturday...followed by cooler/seasonable/drier conditions
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1241 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

MVFR conditions will continue through much of the period, with an
inversion and cyclonic flow. As mentioned in previous discussion,
we`ll continue to hover around the 2Kft landing minimum criteria
through at least the first portion of the TAF period. A shortwave
moving through will bring chances for snow showers, which are more
likely to start around 15z and continue through 21z, enhanced
perhaps by the daytime heating tomorrow. However, ceilings will
likely trend towards BKN015 starting around 9z, if they don`t fall
lower before then. For now, kept things right around BKN020, but
wouldn`t be shocked to see them drop below for a bit before 9z.
Otherwise, expect improvement to VFR by Wednesday evening.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...MCD


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