Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 310723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
323 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

Issued at 323 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Mainly dry conditions are expected today into Monday as high
pressure builds in. Patchy low clouds and fog can be expected
early this morning, likely giving way to partly cloudy skies by
this afternoon and mainly clear skies by tonight and Monday. Highs
will reach the low 80s today and the mid 80s on Monday. Lows
tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s. A warm front will bring
chances for showers and storms back into the forecast Tuesday into
Wednesday. Otherwise...expect mid-late week temperatures and
humidity levels to increase.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Moist boundary layer and light winds near remnant boundary should
allow stratus/patchy fog to fill in early this morning leaving a
mostly cloudy morning for areas mainly along/northeast of US 30.
Mainly dry otherwise through the early afternoon as corridor of weak
deformation/isentropic ascent embedded in low amplitude longwave
trough focuses northeast of the forecast area.

A combination of diurnal heating, cyclonic flow within cool pocket
aloft, and subtle low level boundaries does suggest non-zero chances
for isolated showers/storms mid afternoon through early evening
(best opportunity near sfc boundary southeast of Hwy 24 and in far
ne IN/nw OH/sc MI near leftover weakness). However, chances/coverage
appear too low at any one location to re-introduce a mentionable

Broad mid-level trough axis will finally release off to the east
allowing high pressure to build in tonight into Monday. Fair weather
will result, though could see some patchy fog form early Monday
given light winds and lingering near surface moisture.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2016

A trend toward more humid weather is expected for mid-late week as a
Central US ridge builds in. Warmup may be somewhat delayed initially
Tuesday into Wednesday with potential for a couple convective
complexes to drop through near an advancing theta-e
ridge/instability gradient. Latest guidance continues to favor nw
IN/sw MI for better rain/storm chances Tuesday and the entire
forecast area into Tuesday Night and Wednesday morning. Locally
heavy rainfall will likely be the primary threat given lacking
background flow. Mainly dry with heat/humidity then becomes the
bigger story into Thursday as shortwave ridge axis eventually folds

Upper troughing then reestablishes itself across southeast Canada
and the Northeast US by next weekend. This transition will likely
send a cold front and renewed shower/storm chances through the
region around Friday/Friday night...with seasonable/mainly dry wx
anticipated by next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Moist low levels expected to saturate during the predawn hours
resulting in stratus/fog with ifr conditions at the terminals.
Already a few nearby observations have these conditions and expect
expansion through the predawn hours. Fog/stratus should burn
off/mix out by late morning. VFR conditions expected the remainder
of the day and prbly through the eve. Should also be dry at the
terminals as upr trof which has lingered over the area the past
couple of days shifts east and weakens.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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