Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 230526
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
126 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SURFACE LOW WHILE
EARLIER MCS DISSIPATING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NEW
CELLS STARTING TO FORM OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH UPPER JET WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS
DETACHMENT OF UPPER FORCING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR CONVECTION
MAINTAINING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE NW CWA AS DECENT MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG
COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...CAPES
AROUND 1500J/KG...SO IF CONVECTION IN IOWA IS ABLE TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...HOWEVER FORMING RIGHT ALONG THICKNESS RIDGE WILL HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION. FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST LINGERING
CHANCES IN THE FAR SE CWA...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BY AFTERNOON. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
FOR THE SE HALF WITH LOWS AROUND 70 WHILE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S NW. COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

COMFORTABLE/FAIR WX WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS STABLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS THROUGH. MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A FLATTER/SEMI-ZONAL WNW
REGIME BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS WINDS
VEER MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT TO WORK ENE INTO
THE REGION. LEAD/WEAK SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCREASING MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING
FRONT SUPPORT INHERITED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS
TIME...MAINLY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

RE-AMPLIFICATION OF EASTERN CONUS TROUGH REMAINS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN MODEL GUIDANCE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT ON LEADING
EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY DEPENDING ON TIMING. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WX LIKELY RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

TSRA WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE CDFNT THIS EVE MOVG INTO NWRN
INDIANA ATTM. WILL CONT TEMPO TSRA MENTION INTO FOR NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AT SBN... ALSO ADDED TSRA TO FWA FROM 07-09Z... THOUGH CONFIDENCE
NOT AS HIGH FOR THIS TERMINAL AS STORMS MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH
HIGHER CIN. CDFNT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BRISK N-NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. SOME MVFR
CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NRN MI SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NRN INDIANA
DURING THE MORNING WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OBERGFELL
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


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