Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 060815
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
415 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS... ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S... WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHRTWV WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY TO THE UPR
GRTLKS BY TUE MORNING. THE CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CENTRAL MN-CENTRAL NEB IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN UP TODAY/TONIGHT AS SWLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT... HWVR MID LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY WARM/DRY WITH A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 5KFT SO NO
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY... BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SPREADING FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTS TO DEEPEN AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING OVERNIGHT
SO ANY THREAT OF STORMS CONTAIN STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK IN THE FAR NW WOULD BE THIS EVE WHEN SOME WK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY LARGE SFC DELTA THETA-E VALUES
PERSIST... BUT MOST MODELS SUGGEST TIMING OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO
OUR AREA WILL BE LATER SO NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT SVR STORMS IN
OUR AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS... WAA AND BETTER GRADIENT MIXING WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE M-U80S. COUPLE OF
CONCERNS FOR LOWS TONIGHT... GRADIENT MIXING WILL HOLD TEMPS UP
MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT IF SHOWERS DO MOVE IN COULD SEE A QUICK
SUBSTANTIAL DROP. ALSO MOST MODELS SUGGEST FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW BY 12Z TUE WITH CAA IN THIS AREA LIKELY ENHANCED BY WINDS
VEERING TO OFF THE LAKE. LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER/COOLER SOLUTIONS
IN THIS PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES/ONTARIO WILL
FORCE A WEAKENING/SLOWING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT BUT SOME CONCERN REGARDING ASSOCIATED
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN NORTH BYPASS OF MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. HELD WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW (SCT-NUM
COVERAGE) USING A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TIMING...WITH BETTER
COVERAGE/INTENSITY LIKELY TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EAST-
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE SFC AMBIENT TEMPS LIKELY NEAR 80F. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES AND A RELATIVELY
WARM/DEEP CLOUD LAYER...ALTHOUGH EXPECT FRONT TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE AREAL FLOOD THREAT. 25-30 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION WARRANT SPC`S TUESDAY AFTN MARGINAL RISK (ISO WIND
THREAT AT BEST)...WITH CELL GROWTH/MAINTENANCE LIKELY HAMPERED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND POST-FRONTAL LAG OF NEEDED DEEP LAYER
FLOW/SHEAR.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED NEAR SURFACE PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
SETTLE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA IN WEAK QUASI ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND
THEREAFTER. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVELY
MODIFIED VORTS AND SUBSEQUENT ELEVATED THETA-E SURGES THAT COULD
BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER AROUND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 129 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA ATTM EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE
MVFR RANGE BY DAWN AS SOME RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPS. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT AS SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A CDFNT APCHG FROM THE UPR MIDWEST. WARM/DRY
MID LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME HOWEVER... SO JUST
SCT-BKN FAIR WX CU EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


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