Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 272030
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
325 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES SOUTH...AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL FORCING TO PRODUCE CLOUDS OUT
OF A MOIST LAYER NEAR 850MB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THIS
TROUGHINESS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OFF INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE STIRRED...LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A
LIGHT NORTH FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

.SHORT TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES AT SFC AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
WITH SFC RIDGE OVER THE NC/SC COAST BY THU MORNING. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH MAY FORM NEAR THE COAST BUT POPS ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
SKIES WILL TEND TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH WINDS NEAR 925 MB MAY
BEGIN ADVECTING STRATOCU FROM THE ATLC INTO COASTAL AREAS NEAR AND S
OF JAX. TEMPS WILL BE TUMBLING INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS WITH PATCHES
OF FREEZING TEMPS FOR INLAND AREAS BUT FOR NOW NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
ANY FREEZE WATCHES. AREAS OF FROST APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET DUE TO
NEAR CALM WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRES TO OUR N WILL SHIFT SEWD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S...TO NEAR 70 IN A FEW SPOTS. SKY COVER
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MAY PREVAIL.

THURSDSAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
WITH RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG IT. THINK AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE FRONT LOOSING ITS PUNCH BY THE TIME IT REACHES INTO
NE FL BY EARLY FRI MORNING. MINS IN THE 40S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE SRN
ZONES FRI MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. MAX TEMPS
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER THURS...AND NLY FLOW TO BE AROUND
10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL AS A DRY COOL/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH SFC HIGH PRES N
OF THE AREA. FOR SAT THROUGH SUN...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON VEERING
TREND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING TO THE E COAST. ISOLD
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
LIKELY NEAR THE COAST...WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SUN AS A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD INTO/THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BEST
FORCING WILL STILL BE LOCATED WELL TO OUR W SO POPS ARE PLACED NO
HIGHER THAN 35 PERCENT ATTM. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RESPECTIVE INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHEST CHANCES NOW UP TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT
N/NW ZONES. ITS WORTH NOTING THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE FRONT AND THUS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN THE FCST. BY MON AFTN INTO EARLY TUE...FRONT WILL MOVE E AND SE
OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N. MODERATING TEMPS
EXPECTED SAT THROUGH SUN...THEN COOLER AND DRIER CONDS EXPECTED LATE
MON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS 18Z TAF PERIOD.
STRATUS CLOUDS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON...WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF AREA WATERS THIS EVENING...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. UNFAVORABLE WIND/SEA CONDITIONS WITH
BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED SAT THRU SUN.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. GUST W TO NW WINDS TODAY EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 8
TO 10 MPH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 30-35
PERCENT WED AND AGAIN ON THU BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT WED AND THU AOB 10 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  34  56  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  36  53  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  35  57  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  38  55  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  35  59  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  37  61  35  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY/WALKER


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