Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 310139
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
939 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WIND DOWN ACROSS THE LAND
AREAS OF NE FL DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SE FLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE TOWARDS THE
COAST AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. THE GROUNDS ARE MORE THAN SATURATED
FROM HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE WERE DOPPLER ESTIMATES
OF 7 INCHES JUST NE OF GAINESVILLE TODAY ALONE AND 6 TO 7 INCHES
JUST EAST OF LAKE GENEVA. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY
SO WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY WINDED DOWN THIS EVE BUT VCSH
IS POSSIBLE AT MOST NE FL TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 04Z. OTHERWISE
PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY MON AM.

&&

.MARINE...DATA BUOY OBS INDICATE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WITH CONDITIONS
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING OFFSHORE AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR SHORE WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THESE LEVELS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING: EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN ABOUT ONE
HALF FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOOD STATUS AT HIGH TIDE CYCLES THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO NO STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD 3-5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. INITIAL
CONCERNS ARE ALONG FAST RISING TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS THE NORTH AND
SOUTH FORKS OF BLACK CREEK AND THE UPPER SANTA FE BASIN IN NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE WITHLACOOCHEE
RIVER BORDERING WESTERN MARION COUNTY LATER THIS WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  72  91 /  30  50  10  30
SSI  76  85  75  88 /  60  60  40  30
JAX  75  88  75  89 /  60  60  30  50
SGJ  75  85  77  87 /  70  70  40  60
GNV  73  87  75  89 /  60  70  20  70
OCF  74  87  74  89 /  60  70  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-INLAND DUVAL-
     INLAND NASSAU-MARION-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-PIERCE-
     WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PP/AE/JC



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