Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 042029
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
429 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.NEAR TERM (THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)...
WITH WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ALONG THE SFC TROF...SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS HAVE PUSHED FROM THE BIG BEND REGION TO COASTAL
COUNTIES OF THE FIRST COAST OF FLORIDA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER...SOME STORMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT
WITH THEIR RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR DUE TO THEIR
SLOW MOVEMENT. ACROSS SE GA WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLY LESS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...SOME ISOLD BUT
STRONG/LOW END SEVERE TYPE PULSE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH SURFACE BASE CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-3500 J/KG RANGE.
AS SE GA LOSES ITS DAYTIME HEATING...STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WANE
DURING THE EARLY NOCTURNAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY BY LATE EVENING AND PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS OVER THE BIG BEND REGION...MOVING TOWARD THE I-75
CORRIDOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SUWANNEE VALLEY...WITH SOME
OFFSHORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS WELL. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WED TO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY FRI. LOW-
LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FL...KEEPING A
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE REGION-WIDE THROUGH EARLY FRI. LESS
MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH MID 90S
CONTINUING OVER SOUTHEAST GA. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105
ARE FORECAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY...WITH ACTIVITY PROGRESSING EAST-NORTHEAST AT
10-15 MPH. ANY SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST ON WED...WHERE MERGING STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS COULD RESULT IN A FEW PULSING STORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. ACTIVITY MAY LINGER
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH AROUND SUNSET...OTHERWISE
CONVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ON WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN ON THURSDAY...WITH DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. SURFACE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 15 MPH OVER
SOUTHEAST GA BY LATE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL MOVE E-NE ACROSS
OUR REGION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S REGION-WIDE AND MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105. AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REACHES GA BY EARLY FRI...CONVECTION MAY GET AN
EARLIER START OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS...POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL ECMWF GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S.

WE EXPECT AN ACTIVE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY LOBE
PROGRESSES THROUGH OUR REGION...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST AREA-WIDE. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...W/SW
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY. AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL...AND NEAR 90 ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL WAVES OF CONVECTION MAY IMPACT THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINA REGION ON FRI
EVENING...PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHEAST GA. DEEP-
LAYERED MOISTURE POOLING OVER OUR REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AREA- WIDE...WITH LOWS
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER
ON SAT...WITH ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED AS FAST
DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION
OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 85-90
RANGE...WITH OUTFLOWS MOVING NORTHWARD AND DEVELOPING CONVECTION
BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOWER 90S. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEAST FL
ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. LOWER RAIN CHANCES WILL PREVAIL NORTH
OF THE LINGERING BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST GA...WITH SCATTERED LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
HIGHS NEAR 90 ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER OUR AREA ON
MON...WITH LIGHT FLOW ALLOWING AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR
EARLY AUGUST AVERAGES. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY NEXT TUES...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BRING INTERMITTENT BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN. WIND WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH
CAN OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME MORE THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED OVER KGNV LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND COASTAL
TERMINALS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT. A RIDGE SLIDES
IN AND KEEPS WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
APPROACHES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND BRINGS WITH IT SCEC LEVELS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  95  74  93 /  20  40  20  50
SSI  77  93  78  91 /  30  40  20  30
JAX  76  93  74  93 /  30  50  10  30
SGJ  76  91  75  91 /  30  40  20  40
GNV  73  93  71  91 /  30  30  10  40
OCF  73  92  72  92 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/NELSON/COMBS


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