Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 161243
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
843 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
A ACTIVE DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ADVECTING
MOISTURE IN FROM THE UPPER GULF OF MEXICO. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL DIG ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINA
COAST...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MENTIONED
ABOVE...ALONG WITH A FRONTAL WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TO LIKELY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

12 UTC JACKSONVILLE PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE 2.17 INCHES THIS
MORNING AND TALLAHASSEE 2.19 INCHES SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH FOR GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE CAN HANDLE
THOSE KIND OF RAINFALL RATES BUT IN SOME AREAS WE WILL SEE TRAIN
ECHOING AND LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS AND POSITIONS OF THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND BAKER COUNTY ARE SATURATED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
DIDN`T ISSUE SOME FLOOD STATEMENTS OR EVEN AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS
TODAY. NOT SEEING A NEED FOR ANY KIND OF A WATCH YET...JUST
LOCALIZED FLOODING LOOKING MOST LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS EXPECTED. WILL USE VCTS WITH A
PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL FIELDS 18-24Z. CEILINGS IN THE 2-3 KFT RANGE
ARE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE WEEK AS A NE SURGE DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH. CAUTION LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS SURGE. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL
INCREASE OFFSHORE MIDWEEK AS SWELLS FROM EDOUARD CLIP THE
OUTER WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. MODERATE RISK
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM
HURRICANE EDOUARD. ELEVATED RISK THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  71  90  68 /  60  50  30  10
SSI  85  72  86  72 /  60  60  30  20
JAX  87  71  89  70 /  70  60  30  30
SGJ  86  71  86  71 /  60  50  40  40
GNV  87  69  88  68 /  80  50  40  40
OCF  87  70  88  69 /  80  50  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/WALSH






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