Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 270647
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR INLAND AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LAST OF CONVECTION FADING AND SHOULD BE DONE
AROUND 3-4AM WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL YDAY.

TODAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TRIGGER INLAND CONVECTION
YDAY AND PUSH MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION
WILL LINGER ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BIG BEND REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN GEORGIA. THIS WILL HELP
TO TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE INTERACTION OF THE WESTWARD MOVING ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL COLLIDE WITH THIS FEATURE TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/STRONG WINDS
SIMILAR TO YDAY. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A
BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES
INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO WILL KEEP SILENT
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND AND MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST IN THE E/SE SURFACE
FLOW AROUND 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHTER SPEEDS INLAND.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RE-BUILDS IN ALOFT AND SENDS A
SURGE OF DRIER AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1.50"
ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AND NE FL AND THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN
MOST OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW TEMPORARILY
SHIFTS TO THE ENE AND THIS WILL BASICALLY ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT BUT WITH POP GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT AT 10% OR LESS
HAVE KEPT IN SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO BREEZY/15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS INLAND.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING HOVERS OVER THE
REGION. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT OFFSHORE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT ONSHORE. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR/OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S INLAND...AND UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 COAST. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL USE LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE DECREASING. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE POPS FURTHER TO
MID/HIGH END CHANCE BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF NORMAL WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS FLOATING AROUND IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AT KSGJ/KSSI
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN SCATTERED
CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR
VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  65  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  92  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  92  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/ALLEN


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