Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 281857
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
157 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

THE CONTINUOUS RAINFALL CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH.
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS
NEARLY STALLED OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF EAST KENTUCKY.
CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
A GRADUAL EASTWARD TREND NOW AND MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS AREA WILL SEE
RAIN TAPERING OFF A BIT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS AND THE
GRADUAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE RAINFALL. THE GENERAL
CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS THE EVER SO SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AT THIS POINT...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS BUT MAY RESULT IN A
CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE EAST TOMORROW NIGHT. A
NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING FEATURE THE LARGE AREA OF
RAIN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE COLD FRONT NOW POSITIONED
IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS SLOWED WITH A LARGE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
AHEAD AND BEHIND OF THIS FRONT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. UPSTREAM...SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE
MS VALLEY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
WILL EXPECT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS CURRENT
TREND OF THINKING IS ALONG WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL ALLOW
THE CURRENT ZFP TO RIDE THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MAINLY STEADY SO HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE CURRENT OBS AND SENT
THE GRIDS TOT HE NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
AS WELL. UPDATE CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND
ROUND OF RAIN A BIT LATER TODAY. NAM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING
ALL THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH SEEM TO
HANG ON TO THE IDEA OF A SECOND WAVE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
RAIN LINGERING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...MAINLY OUR
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER MOST IF NOT
ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR
TENDS TO SUPPORT THE HRRR AS ECHOS ARE FILLING IN AND INTENSIFYING
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. UPDATE
WILL ENTAIL ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP GRIDS FOR RECENT RADAR
TRENDS AND AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. ENERGY FROM
PLAINS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH CORRESPONDING SFC LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A SFC
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...ROUGHLY STRETCHING FROM EAST CENTRAL OHIO
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN TN...HAVING PASSED THOUGH CVG AND BWG. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN BEING PRODUCED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE WILL CARRY PRECIP EASTWARD WITH IT THROUGH THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE LULL IN RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
BUT LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN RATHER LIGHT OVERALL...AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH IN OUR SOUTHERN
MOST COUNTIES THUS FAR AND MUCH SMALLER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT TO
SEE ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THE
SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THESE CHANCES WILL DROP AS WE MOVE
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. THE PREVIOUS NAM DID TRY
TO BRING MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION BUT THE 06Z RUN BACKED OFF ON
THIS ONCE AGAIN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN A COLDER
AIR MASS AND WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
COLDER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR WEDNESDAY
AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THIS
SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
SOME RETURN FLOW AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
RETURN TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THEN WE START TO FOCUS ON
ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THURSDAY NIGHT A
CLOSED LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGION. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN EJECTING EAST AND WILL AID IN DEVELOPING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ARKLATEX AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY. INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP
MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BRING SNOW TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...HOWEVER AS
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EASTERN KY GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR WE WILL
SEE A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION GOING INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION MAKING FOR A
WINDY DAY ACROSS EASTERN KY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST HIGHEST
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR
MAXIMUM MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND CONTINUOUS STREAMING
MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE IFR CEILINGS AND MANY LOCATIONS BELOW FIELD MINS AT MANY OF
THE TAF SITES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. RAIN AND FOG WILL HINDER VISIBILITY AS WELL WITH TAF SITES
HAVING VARYING VALUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





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