Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 250835

National Weather Service Jackson KY
435 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

A slow moving stacked low pressure system currently over eastern
OK will move northeast, reaching the Chicago area by Sunday
evening. A warm, moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico and the
advancing upper trough associated with the system are responsible
for a line of showers and thunderstorms currently extending from
southern IL south to the Gulf Coast. The precip will move east
along with the regime, bringing rain to our local area this
weekend. It should hold off long enough to give us another mild
and dry day today. A model blend solution brings precip in from
the west tonight, likely bisecting the JKL forecast area at dawn
on Sunday, and then continuing to move eastward over the remainder
of the area on Sunday.

Modest instability is expected, and thunder will continue to be
mentioned for tonight and Sunday. With decent flow aloft and
freezing levels only around 8K ft on Sunday, organized convection
could bring strong winds and hail. However, in terms of severe
weather, parameters are not overly impressive.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

The first of a string of upper level waves will be placed across the
Upper Ohio Valley/Southern Great lakes region in a negatively tilted
position. A weak low will be stacked with it and trailing cold front
attempting to progress through the area. There will be lingering
showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and slowly wane from west to
east through Monday. Did keep chance to slight chance POPs going
into Monday, as the front may in fact stall out near by. That said,
another wave will be on the heels of the previous and will eject
east into the TN/OH valleys by Monday night. Another Low will
develop and bring the front back across the region leading
additional showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. This
is where is gets convoluted as front may in fact stall again nearby,
but the agreement on this becomes less in the deterministic models
past this point. Right now given a upper level ridge builds east
will cap POPs at slight on Wednesday and mainly confine these to the
southern portions of the CWA.

Another upper level wave will move out of the Four Corners into the
Southern Plains Wednesday and progress east by Thursday. However,
the models diverge on how this will evolve and struggle with what
looks like some phasing issues. This leads to more uncertainty and
would think all the issues leading in will have affects on this part
of the forecast period as well. Not to mention the timing and
evolution differences seen in the ensemble mean of the GFS versus
the operational run. Given this felt like POPs would need to be
caped at chance and unsure on where the highest POPs will truly
exists. Therefore, will keep close to general trends in the model
blend. Despite the active pattern it does look like a extended
period of above normal temperatures will remain the story throughout
the long term period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)

VFR conditions are expected to hold. However, MVFR conditions and
showers could be about ready to move eastward into the area
around KEKQ and KSME at the end of the period. South to southwest
winds will pick up and gust to around 20 kts over much of the area
during the day Saturday.




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