Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 100641
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
241 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE GENERAL
PATTERN...HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
IS SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH
VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE...HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWER A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY. INITIALLY HAVE SIDED
WITH THE NAM...HOWEVER MAY MAKE A LAST MINUTE CHANGE WHEN THE NEW
ECMWF COMES IN AFTER 3 AM. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A BLEND OF THE
NAM AND GFS MOS THAT HAS BEEN BIAS AND ELEVATION ADJUSTED. ONCE THIS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATTER THIS AFTERNOON...THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NORMAL VALLEY
FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THUS...LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKE A PLEASANT WEEKEND IS ON TAP. WEATHER WILL TURN
MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES PUSH ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHICH WILL HELP DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
KENTUCKY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTH OF KENTUCKY ON
SUNDAY...AND COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT TO POP A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVITY ON
SUNDAY WOULD BE VERY SPORADIC WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY SINCE MOST
OF THE BETTER FORCING WILL STAY NORTH. A BETTER LOOKING SHORTWAVE
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...PROVIDING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. HAVE
GONE WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS AS THIS WAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. A
POTENT VORT MAX WILL THEN SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
AGAIN WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL MAKE IT AND IF IT STALLS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA...WE COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND WASHES OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

THIS IS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE
MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST OF THE VALLEYS HAVE
DECOUPLED ALREADY...SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG FORM IN THE
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF JACKSON. THE DRIER AIR AT THE
SURFACE WAS ONLY ABLE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. NORMALLY...IN THIS SCENARIO...THE STATIONS WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE SEEING SOME VALLY FOG WITH VLIFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 9Z. STATIONS LIKE JKL...WILL NOT SEE FOG FORM
OVERHEARD...HOWEVER SOME MAY FORM IN THE VALLEYS BELOW AND THE LIFT
AS THE HEATING STARTS UP. THIS LIFTED FOG THEN MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
AIRFIELD. IT IS MORE LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE ASOS THAN THE RUNWAY.
SME AND SJS HAD MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...SO MADE THE
CONDITIONS WORSE THERE. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT VFR FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ






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