Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 290600
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
200 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 200 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2017

The forecast remains on track tonight with no major changes
needed. Did ingest the latest obs data into the forecast grids to
establish new trends, but no other changes were needed aside from
that.

UPDATE Issued at 1041 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2017

The forecast remains on track. The eastern valleys have dropped
off into the lower 60s, on pace for mid 50s. Did increase the sky
cover a bit in the north, as some thicker cirrus is moving
overhead.

UPDATE Issued at 719 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2017

Mainly some thin cirrus is currently passing overhead.
Temperatures are starting to drop off in the more sheltered
valleys, and given the drier low level air still in place, will
lower the valley temperatures somewhat, allowing for some mid 50s.
Broader valleys and ridgetops will only cool off to the low to
mid 60s, which the current forecast has well handled. Updates will
be out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 413 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2017

High pressure remained in control for the day as it continues to
shift eastward away from the region. Strong S to SW return flow
is now in place across the region. This will allow for warmer
temperatures and higher humidity values to start advecting into
the region after this point. Some high clouds may also continue to
advect into the region from the NW associated with a system
currently over the northern Mississippi Valley. This should not
hamper some valley fog development once more tonight, mainly in
near bodies of water. For tomorrow, temperatures will rise to at
or above seasonable normals, in the mid and upper 80s, but higher
humidities will make it feel warmer.

An upper level low is expected to become closed off along the
Gulf of Mexico coast overnight as it slowly shifts northeast
through the day Thursday. This disturbance will combine with the
warm, moist, and unstable flow during the day tomorrow, producing
showers and thunderstorms across much of the Deep South,
especially along the Gulf Coast. Model trends are continuing to
pull this shower and thunderstorm potential northward along the
best moisture flow, possibly reaching the south central portion of
KY during the day Thursday. This could result in some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across our far SW CWA during
the day Thursday, tapering off again with loss of daytime heating
in the evening. Mild conditions return for Thursday night, with
lows in the mid and upper 60s, with cooler temps expected for the
deeper valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2017

The extended portion of the forecast begins on Friday with a
fairly active upper level pattern in place. Expect a shortwave
trough to be diving southeast into the OH Valley. Southwesterly
flow near the surface will bring ample moisture into the lower
levels with precip chances on the increase by Friday afternoon and
increased forcing as the front approaches. As the potent shortwave
and increased forcing approaches, increased moisture evident by
the lower 70 degree dew points entering the area by Saturday
afternoon, will greatly destabilize the airmass with roughly 2000
J/KG expected. This will also be the best chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the area on Saturday into Saturday evening.
At this point for Saturday, based upon the model profiles, there
certainly is a possibility for a few strong storms. Waning
instability will mean the thunderstorm potential will dissipate
with only showers expected for Saturday night into Sunday.

Much lessened instability ahead of the slowed and weakened front
for Sunday will allow just enough for a few thunderstorms and
mainly shower activity as CAPE values will struggle to reach 500.
Stout ridging nudging into the lee side of the Appalachians will
keep the weakened boundary parked over the Appalachian range and a
slight chance of thunderstorms for Sunday evening through Monday
evening. The super blend shows a lot of agreement in this pattern
with the newest run of the Euro. The final day of the extended on
Tuesday seems to feature the models showing a break down in the
pattern as precip chances will be pending on a strong wave
undercutting the western ridge and moving into the area from the
Mid MS Valley. Overall, a pretty active pattern is in store for
the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2017

VFR conditions will generally continue through early this morning.
Some patchy MVFR or worse fog will likely occur once again
between through 12z; however, this will be confined to the
deepest river valleys. Warm and moist return flow will bring some
scattered cumulus back into the area during the afternoon. A few
afternoon showers and storms will be possible mainly along and
west of I-75; however, given the expected limited areal coverage,
will continue to not mention at LOZ and SME. Light south winds
through Thursday morning will become south southwest at near 10
kts by the afternoon hours.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR



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