Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 271632
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1132 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE
WEST THIS MORNING. A WEAK CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT PER RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST EAST OF THE LOWER TX COASTAL WATERS. RECENT
OBS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. HPC CONTINUES TO GIVE THIS SYSTEM A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR TC DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ONLY ABOUT A 24 HOUR
WINDOW BEFORE IT REACHES THE TX COAST.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH SCT TO NUMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTEND NORTH AND EAST OF THE TROF AXIS...INTO THE SW LA NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SRN ZONES AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACRS THE AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS FOR TODAY...BUT OVERALL THINKING OF HIGHEST POPS SW TO LOWEST
NE IS STILL APPLICABLE.

ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR THE DAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. HOWEVER...BLENDING RECENT WIND OBS
WITH LATEST NAM12/RUC GUIDANCE BROUGHT OFFSHORE WINDS DOWN
SLIGHTLY...SO CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL ZONES AND RETAINED SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF SOUTH
OF CAMERON LOUISIANA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WEST INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL AREA LATER TODAY. THIS WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS
WELL AS MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. VCSH
WILL LINGER TNITE AROUND BPT AND LCH WHERE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MISSOURI RIDGES SOUTHWARD...ITS
OUTER PERIPHERY MARKED BY A STATIONARY FRONT (WHICH EXTENDS FROM
BROWNSVILLE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA).

A SALIENT EASTERLY WAVE (OR INVERTED TROUGH) IS FOUND WITHIN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT . THE
GFS MODEL DEPICTS THIS WESTWARD-MOVING WAVE LANDFALLING NEAR
BROWNSVILLE BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.

FURTHER-UP...

A WARM ANTICYCLONE IS FOUND VICINITY THE MIDPOINT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR MARINE POINT 25N 92W.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

A 200-MB SOUTHWESTERLY JETSTREAK (TROPOPAUSE FOLD) MARKS THE OUTER
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE WARM ANTICYCLONE...CORING THROUGH HOUSTON
THROUGH ALEXANDRIA. CONSEQUENTLY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF  DAYS...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL UNDULATE
POLEWARD AS WEAKER EASTERLY WAVES TRAVEL THROUGH ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE DRIFTING FRONT WILL REACH A PALACIOS TO TAMPA LINE BY FRIDAY...
BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE THE LOUISIANA COAST BY SATURDAY.

CONSEQUENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
.BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS
THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  74  89  75 /  30  20  40  30
KBPT  90  77  88  77 /  40  30  50  40
KAEX  94  73  91  74 /  20  20  40  30
KLFT  91  75  90  76 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
     TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$






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