Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 011813
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
113 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...

THE AXIS OF A SOUTHEASTERLY MAX-WIND-BAND EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHEASTERLY SURGES
(OR CARIBBEAN PUSHES) ARE TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES. IN GENERAL
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BRIEF.

CARIBBEAN-PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY.

21
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO THE COASTAL ZONES
THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN-LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HOWEVER
THE GRIDS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO TAP DOWN THE POPS A BIT
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
STILL EXPECTED MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
01/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIGHT SHRA HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING
NORTH OVER COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW OF THEM
REACHING OUR SRN TAF SITES SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
MEANWHILE...THE FORMATION OF SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL BRING ABOUT SOME BRIEF LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE LIFTING WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT
AEX/LFT/ARA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THEREAFTER. A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE AND EXPECT SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE...HAVE KEPT INHERITED PROB30 GROUPS ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPO GROUPS BECOME REQUIRED DURING THE
DAY. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER 01Z TONIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS/PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MOIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PW`S REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PER THE
GPS-MET DATA.

GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW`S
BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES MOVING NORTHWARDS INTO THE AREA TODAY.
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROPICAL SHOWERS ARE ALREADY NOTED ON AREA
RADARS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF SOUTH LA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

EXPECT THAT ONCE WE GET TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED PER THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST FOR TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TRYING TO NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS AND QPF
POTENTIAL MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH THE BETTER FOCUS.

PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH TYPICAL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.

MARINE...
SOUTHEARLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS WELL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  77  90  76  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KBPT  90  77  90  77  91 /  30  20  40  20  20
KAEX  92  74  92  73  92 /  40  30  40  20  20
KLFT  90  77  91  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$








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