Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 271744
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
18z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...
Another wave of convection has developed across East Texas this
afternoon and will slowly push East as the day progresses.
Somewhat difficult to get specific with regards to when activity
may impact terminals as showers and thunderstorms continue to
develop ahead of the primary focus point. Used the latest HRRR
forecast reflectivities and current convection motion as a best
guess. Kept VCSH ongoing at BPT as showers continue to develop
near the terminal before moving North. Added thunder by 22Z but
could be earlier depending on storm development. Added thunder at
LCH and AEX between 22Z and 23Z based on current movement of
observed convection. Left precip out of tafs at LFT and ARA as
there is considerable uncertainty as to how far East the
convection will progress before dissipating. Either way activity
likely won`t reach these sites before the next package update at
00Z so tendencies will be reevaluated at that time.

Gradient winds will remain on the strong side through the
afternoon before weakening after sunset.

&&

66

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1222 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

UPDATE...
Inflow into surface low over central Texas has increased above
what was earlier thought. Sustained winds between 20 and 25 mph
with gusts to 35 mph occurring over lower southeast Texas and
lower southwest Louisiana. Therefore, have issued a Wind Advisory
for that area for the remainder of the afternoon. Also, went ahead
and increased the exercise caution to small craft advisory for the
Cameron to High Island marine zones out 60 nm.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 955 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

UPDATE...
Earlier complex of thunderstorms continues to weaken over the
forecast area...and the remnant activity should not make much more
progress to the east and continue to weaken. Will keep decent pops
in the forecast for upper southeast Texas and west central
Louisiana for the remainder of the day...as once airmass
recovers...daytime heating should allow for redevelopment of
showers and storms...with numerous left over meso scale boundaries
serving as a focus. Pops will taper off the further to the
east...with just a slight chance for lower Acadiana. Remainder of
the forecast is unchanged at this time.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
For the 05/27/16 1200 UTC TAF package.

AVIATION...
Line of convection currently pushing through E TX this morning
just moving into the KBPT area at this time. Inserted a tempo TSRA
here for the next few HRS, though that duration may prove too
long. Effects on downstream sites becomes increasingly uncertain,
and for that reason have only used VCTS at KAEX and KLCH, with no
mention at all for the Acadiana terminals. Doppler velocityestimates
in the stronger convection have been around 50KT at near 3K FT,
but gusts at the surface thus far have been closer to 20-25KT.
Will continue to monitor trends for possible AMDS, as it appears
the convection will reach KLCH sooner than indicated in the TAF.
Away from the convection, a mix of MVFR and VFR CIGS are expected
with south winds increasing and becoming gusty with daytime
mixing.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Today through Saturday.
Main forecast issues will be POPs especially over western parts of
the forecast area today and intensity of storms as they move
through southeast Texas this morning. Based on satellite and
radar...overall thunderstorm activity had weakened across
southeast Texas overnight as convection has increased and
intensified westward into central Texas. However...intense
convective line is beginning to organize northwest of Houston and
will likely move into southeast Texas later this morning. SPC has
issued a watch until 10 AM for southeast Texas as strong winds
and hail will be possible. Will maintain current fotrecast of
high POPs similar to ongoing forecast. Focus of stronger storms
and heavy appears to shifting further west in time. Also total QPF
through 12Z Saturday is forecasted under 1 inch so no FFA for now.
While upper trough axis will shift NE of area...rich thte air will
remain over the area so taper POPs to chance category for
Saturday. Highest POPs will remain over the north.

04

Long Term...Saturday night through Thursday
A fairly persistent weak upper ridge pattern is expected through
at least the middle of next week. With rich moisture still in
place...will continue with low-end diurnal rain chances through
Wednesday. Upper trough will begin to move into the southern
Plains by late next week. Both GFS and ECMWF are showing
impressive upper diffluent flow east of the trough which would
denote potential for more heavy rain events. Temperatures should
remain near normal through late next week.

04

MARINE...
Persistent high pressure will continue over the eastern U.S. through
Saturday. This will keep a modest gradient over the area through
Saturday.  Gradient should weaken by Sunday as high pressure builds
westward. This should bring a weak wind regime for the northern Gulf
and coastal areas for early next week.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  70  90 /  20  40  10  20
LCH  74  85  72  87 /  20  30  10  20
LFT  72  87  71  89 /  10  20  10  20
BPT  75  86  73  86 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ041-042-073-
     074.

TX...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ215-216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for GMZ452-455-
     472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION from 10 PM CDT this evening through
     late tonight for GMZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$


AVIATION...66


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