Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 302307
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
607 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY BR MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LIGHT S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED
AN UPPER LOW LIFTING NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS...WITH AN UPSTREAM
UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH CULMINATES IN
AND UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO SRN TX. INVERTED LOW-MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS NOTED JUST OFFSHORE AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA AND
TEXAS COASTLINES. SFC PATTERN REMAINS NON-DESCRIPT...WITH THE NW
GULF COAST REGION ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

MSTR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AT THE SFC AMID LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND ALOFT ON WESTERLY FLOW AT H5 AND ABOVE AHEAD
OF THE DIGGING LOW OUT WEST. MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
DRY...HOWEVER...WITH CHAOTIC AND AT TIMES NE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE INVERTED TROF. THAT IS FCST TO CHANGE...HOWEVER...AS THE
INVERTED TROF PUSHES INLAND LATER TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A MORE
PREVALENT ONSHORE FETCH. GFS PROGGED PWATS CLIMB TO A NEAR CLIMO
1.8 INCHES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT CONVECTION
OF GREATER COVERAGE/DEPTH TO OCCUR INLAND...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON TUE AS PWATS
CLIMB A LITTLE MORE AND THE UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO ERN TEXAS.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA WED AND THU...BUT DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND THIS POINT...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
OPENING UP AND SHEARING APART...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A DISTINCT
AND ROBUST LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. BOTH SCENARIOS RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST
TEXAS AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  72  89  74  89 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  72  91  74  92 /  10  30  10  20
BPT  72  90  75  89 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05



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