Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 241735
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1235 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD AFFECT BEAUMONT AND LAKE
CHARLES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING BUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR ALEXANDRIA AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 38/HGX

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
LOCATIONS ALREADY DOWN TO LESS THAN ONE HALF A MILE. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THE
NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHOULD VISBYS HOLD STEADY AROUND ONE
QUARTER MILE.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH PLENTY OF SUN. DID HAVE
DISCREPANCIES IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE SMALL POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF
TEXAS...HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE AND CAM MODELS HOLD OFF THE ACTIVITY
UNTIL THIS EVENING AND WORKS THIS SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...HOWEVER
NO CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN SUNDAY AS A
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION
SUNDAY AND POPS WERE RAISED A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS FOR THIS.

THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WOULD
STILL SUPPORT THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

A POTENT COLD FRONT FOR THIS LATE IN THE YEAR IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL SHOW THIS BEING A DRY
FRONT AS DRY AIR SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO END APRIL.

MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AND BECOME BRIEFLY OFFSHORE BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

BRAZZELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  61  82  61  83 /  30  10  10  10
LCH  64  82  64  81 /  10  20  10  10
LFT  66  82  65  82 /  10  20  10  10
BPT  65  82  66  79 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...69


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