Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 210247
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
847 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE ON-GOING FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO
AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 12 AND HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
MAINLY CLEARED OUT OF THESE AREAS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT
MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND AIR TEMPERATURES TO REACH DEW POINTS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS REMAINING OVER LFT/ARA AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER
ACADIANA. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED WITH
THE DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER SE TX/C AND SW LA. BEST CHANCES FOR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER LFT/ARA OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SUN. NNE WINDS ~10-12 KTS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE NE THEN E BY SUN.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOW THE GULF LOW PRESSURE NOW
APPROACHING THE NERN GULF WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO RIDGE SWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION ATTM ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON. AS
STATED EARLIER DRY AIR IS WINNING OUT OVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
THE STRATUS HAS BEEN STEADILY DISSIPATING FROM NE-SW SINCE THIS
MORNING.

STILL EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH HOLDS TO OUR NE...MAINTAINING
A DRY NERLY/ERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT NOTED UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP DIG OVER THE WRN 1/2
OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AND IN TURN ARE
PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SRN TX COAST. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WRN/CNTL
GULF WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE SLIM RAIN CHANCES THEN SPREAD
NWD INTO THE ERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY AS ENHANCED
SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WORKS WITH LINGERING LIFT BEHIND THE DISTURBANCES TO POSSIBLY
PRODUCE A LITTLE CONVECTION.

A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE DIGGING THROUGH THE TROF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
CUTTING OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR THE CENTER OF THE
NATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING FOR THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES WHERE RICHER MOISTURE/BETTER INSTABILITY/STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED...BUT NOT PLANNING ANY MENTION ATTM.
LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT...
LEAVING BEHIND DRY WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS. OUR PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN SEES HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING EWD...ALLOWING A
RETURN TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS BEFORE YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...
DROPPED CAUTION HEADLINES FROM THE COASTALS AS INITIALS SPEEDS
SHOULD BE RUNNING 15 KNOTS AT MOST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX
INTO SUNDAY WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING MORE ERLY THEN SRLY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  44  64  50  70  59 /  10  10  10  10  30
KBPT  46  65  52  71  60 /  10  10  10  10  20
KAEX  39  61  45  69  57 /   0  10  10  10  40
KLFT  44  65  51  70  60 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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