Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLCH 201728
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1228 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. A FEW TO SCATTERED
CU AND SOME HIGH CIRRUS IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS VFR EXPECTED. A WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BRING SOME VFR ALTOCU PRIMARILY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CLOUDS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT. POTENTIAL CLEARING
HOWEVER LATE TONIGHT OVER BPT COULD ALLOW FOR A WINDOW OF
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...FOG HAS LIFTED OVER LOWER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THEREFORE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM LOCAL. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRID BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE OVERALL FORECAST CATEGORIES
AS FAR AS THE HIGHS FOR TODAY GO. SHOULD BE A NICE EASTER DAY AS
FAR AS THE WEATHER GOES.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 20/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WERE
HIGH. GOES-E MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY CHARTS SHOWED FOG
CONCENTRATION MAINLY CONFINED IN THE TERMINAL AIRPORT AREAS OF BPT
AND LCH EARLY THIS MORNING. BPT WAS THE CLEAR PROBLEM SPOT AS LIFR
VISIBILITY/CLOUD CONDITIONS SEEN THERE BEFORE SUNRISE.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SLOWLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS WHERE FOG WAS A BIT THICK. ELSEWHERE...ALL TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA SHOULD BE VFR BY 15Z. FOG EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN
TONIGHT AS FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR.

06

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...WITH AN
UPSTREAM TROF EMERGING EAST O THE FOUR CORNERS INTO WEST TX. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...MID/UPPER RIDGING WAS NOTED ACROSS THE WRN
GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM ERN CANADA INTO
THE NW GULF.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TODAY...LEADING
TO A GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT WINDS AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS
CARRIED IN BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET...BUT OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OBS ACROSS SE TX/SW LA INDICATE AREAS OF FOG...SOME DENSE...HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND INTO SW LA VIA A
COMBINATION OF ADVECTION/RADIATION PROCESSES. HAD INSERTED PATCHY
FOG INTO THE GRIDS OVER SE TX FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...BUT IN THE PROCESS OF WRITING THIS AFD...THE FOG HAS
WORSENED AND EXPANDED EASTWARD. AN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...CROSSING THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE MEAN TROF
AXIS...HOWEVER...WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND...NOT TRAVERSING THE REGION
UNTIL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED WITH LOW END POPS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROF NUDGES A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO TEMPERATURES OTHER THAN A BRIEF HALT TO
THE MODERATING TREND. CONTINUED TO KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY...BUT THIS
COULD CHANGE AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE SOME
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND LIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST. AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  60  79  61  80 /  10  10  10  20  20
KBPT  81  60  79  62  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
KAEX  82  58  80  60  80 /  10  10  20  30  30
KLFT  81  59  80  61  80 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.