Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 040253
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
953 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LIFTED NORTH ABOUT MIDWAY ACRS THE CWA BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY DIDN`T BRING MORE
THAN AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TWO SOUTH OF I-10 BUT WAS FAIRLY EVIDENT
ON THE SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...SEPARATING LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH. HERE AT KLCH THE
DEWPOINT CLIMBED FROM 62 DEGREES TO 72 DEGREES BETWEEN 23-00Z. THE
END RESULT IS A RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SLY FLOW
PREVAILS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE EAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. FINE TUNED POPS/WX
SLIGHTLY...INCORPORATING A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AND ARW
GUIDANCE...TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLT CHC AFTER. SINCE ADJUSTMENTS ONLY AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES...WILL NOT UPDATE ZFP AS INLAND FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 04/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INLAND PAST THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES WITH A LINE OF CU. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CU WILL DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ON
TUESDAY...BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CU DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A FEW
MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THE LOCATION THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING CONVECTION IS KARA...SO WILL PLACE VCTS AFTER 04/18Z FOR
THAT SITE.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE
INLAND AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING OLD DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY NOW EDGING INLAND. ACCORDINGLY...A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S OVER ACADIANA...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING BOUNDARY WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HENCE...HOT AND HUMID WORDING WILL BE RETURNING TO
THE VOCABULARY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL... MOISTURE PROFILES MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY MID AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
IN THIS REGION BETWEEN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE...AND
PERSISTENT EAST CONUS TROF. THUS MAINTAINING NO MORE THAN LOW END
POPS AREA-WIDE.

MARINE...A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  96  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  76  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  94  77  94 /  10  30  10  30
BPT  75  95  77  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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