Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 010231

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
931 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.UPDATE...The previous forecast remains on target this evening and
no changes are needed at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

For the 01/00Z TAF Issuance.

Upper level storm system still located over the Southern Plains
making slow progress off to the east-northeast. Dry west-southwest
flow around the system will persist through the TAF period
maintaining VFR conditions.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the cold front about to cross the
Atchafalaya with a wrly low-level flow and 40s/50s dewpoints in
place across the forecast area. Local 88Ds show a few light
showers developing along the front at this time...additional QPFs
look minimal. Water vapor imagery shows the mid/upper-level low
drifting enewd across the srn Plains with a dry wrly flow aloft
noted across much of TX/wrn LA...and this drier air is helping
scour out the persistent cloud cover in place overhead as seen in
visible imagery this afternoon.

Dry weather looks on tap for the early part of the work week as
forecast soundings indicate good drying continuing through tonight
as wrly winds dominate through the column thanks to high pressure
moving from srn TX to the nrn Gulf. Looking for a cooler than
normal night tonight with lows in the 50s (possibly upper 40s TX
Lakes region) all but the immediate coastline...but the dry column
will allow for a good warmup tomorrow with maxes running in the
lower 80s most of the area. By Tuesday expect the high to be
centered over the sern CONUS which will allow a return flow to
again set up over the region...but drier air aloft should preclude
any precip development during the daylight hours. Temps will
likewise be on the uptick with highs Tuesday well into the 80s
once again.

Rain chances return to the area Tuesday night as a trof digging
through the Rockies pushes ewd to the srn Plains. This trof is
progged to help spin up a sfc low over TX by Wednesday, with the
whole system forecast to push ewd through the wrn Gulf region into
Thursday. With forecast soundings/time-height sections indicating
good moistening, expect POPs to quickly increase through Wednesday
then linger into Wednesday night. Guidance also indicating
Wednesday could be a breezy day as the gradient tightens with the
sfc low develop/pushing newd through TX. Showers/storms should
come to an end for most of the forecast area by late in the day
Thursday as an associated sfc front sweeps through the region.

The remainder of the forecast period looks dry on the heels of the
frontal passage as nwrly flow takes over through the column.
Temps will once again be below normal for Thursday night through
Friday night before returning to more seasonal values for the
weekend with sfc high pressure building past the area.

Local wave height guidance indicates the outer coastal waters will
continue to run AOA 7 feet through this evening, thus the SCA will
continue as previously advertised. Thereafter another round of
elevated winds/seas looks likely through mid-week as the gradient
tightens ahead of the next frontal passage...followed by a quick
shot of elevated offshore flow behind the front.


AEX  51  81  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  54  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  57  83  60  87 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  53  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ470-472-475.



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