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000
FXUS65 KLKN 092156
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
256 PM PDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WET PATTERN IS ON DECK AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM MARCHES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. GUSTY WINDS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. EXPECTING
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...WITH A TRACE OR DUSTING OF SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING MILD
WEATHER TONIGHT. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM ELKO HAD PWS OF .26 WHICH
IS 94 PERCENT OF NORMAL. HOWEVER AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND
TOMORROW...EXPECTING THE PWS TO SPIKE OVER .50 OF AN INCH. IN
SOME AREAS IT IS PROGGED TO SPIKE OVER .60 OF AN INCH... WHICH IS
2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE NAEFS RETURN
INTERVAL PINGING INTO AT 10 YEAR EVENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING A RAIN EVENT WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED...BUT THE
MAIN EVENT WILL BE ABOVE 6500 FEET AND NORTH OF I-80. EXPECTING AN
IMPRESSIVE WIND EVENT TO UNFOLD ON MONDAY...WITH STRONG
U-COMPONENT ANOMALIES AN 15 DAM OF GRADIENT AT H5 FROM GABBS TO
DENIO AS THE JET BARRELS INTO THE SILVER STATE. THE LEE OF THE
RUBIES AND RAWS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE THE PEAK WINDS FOR
THIS EVENT. ISSUED AN NPW FOR LANDER/EUREKA AND PORTIONS OF
ELKO...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED. A RE-ENFORCING SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
HEIGHT FALLS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE RIDGE WILL BOUND BACK ON
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MILD WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
REASONABLE AGREEMENT...TENDING TOWARDS A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A MEAN
POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF NEVADA. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS POSITION...A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL ENVELOPE THE GREAT
BASIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL CREEP UP TO AROUND 7000 FEET HOWEVER NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THIS
PERIOD EITHER BASED ON CURRENT MODELING. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. SNOW LEVELS...JUST IN CASE MOISTURE CROPS UP...WILL SOAR TO
AROUND 9000 FEET AND SHOULD POSE NO PROBLEMS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
NEVADA AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART DURING TIMES OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER
WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND WINDS INCREASING AS
THE TROUGH AXIS NEARS ON MONDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME COMPLICATIONS
DUE TO BLOWING DUST AT KWMC AND KEKO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR RUBY
MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR NORTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY.

&&

$$

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