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668
FXUS65 KLKN 201100
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
400 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will rumble across
east central Nevada today while dry conditions will prevail across the
rest of northern and central Nevada. Dry all areas on Friday.
Monsoon moisture will begin to increase over the weekend into
early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. Monsoon moisture will continue
to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms to east central NV
today. A dry southwest flow will prevail across the rest of
northern and central NV. Drier air from the west will push most of
the moisture out of east central NV on Friday, but could still see
an isolated thunderstorm over and near the Great Basin National
Park.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday.

The long term models GFS/ECMWF are in generally good agreement
through the weekend, but differences arise in how they handle the
amount and coverage of monsoonal moisture that impacts Nevada
early next week (Monday through Wednesday) before drier air
attempts to push into the region from the west.

A Pacific shortwave riding along the southern periphery of the
stronger westerlies aloft, develops into a nearly stationary,
weak upper low/trough over northwest California while sandwiched
between an upper high that rebuilds over the Southwest U.S. and
a much larger area of high pressure out over the Pacific Ocean.
This configuration of weather features will serve to pull some
monsoonal moisture father north into central and eastern Nevada on
Saturday afternoon/evening, and farther north and west by Sunday.

During this time, PWs will increase to 0.75" or more which would
support a mix of both dry and wet storms. The GFS is much wetter
and more aggressive with the moisture early next week. PWs of an
inch or more are forecast starting on Sunday and continuing
through the remainder of the forecast period.This would lead to
wetter storms which might increase the threat of isolated flash
flooding. This would also cause more cloud cover and higher
humidities that could lower daytime temperatures into the upper
80s to lower 90s, but result in warmer nighttime lows above 60 on
Tuesday.

The ECMWF is not nearly as wet but is starting to trend wetter
than the previous run. For now, will lean a bit more toward the
moist GFS solution early next week. Careful monitoring of the
situation is needed as any prolonged rain event over any of the
numerous burn scars in our area could result in localized flash
flooding next week.

&&

.AVIATION...General VFR conditions for all terminals for the next
24 hours. Smoke/haze are possible to return around KWMC due to
dispersed smoke from regional wildfires. West to southwest winds
will gust to around 20 kts this afternoon across all terminals.
There is a continued small chance for a few high-based showers
and thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of KELY this
afternoon/evening as monsoonal moisture continues to push into
northeast Nye and White Pine counties from Utah.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening over east central NV, primarily
impacting fire weather zone 455. Drier air from the west on Friday
will push most of this moisture out of the air but could still see
an isolated storm over far southeast portion of fire zone 455.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

91/89/89/91