Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 271024
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
224 AM PST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TODAY...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING EVEN COLDER AIR TO THE GREAT BASIN. SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE THREE DOG NIGHTS WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...SO BUNDLE UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER THE LKN CWFA
THIS MORNING AND CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASED...LEADING TO COLDER
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA...NEAR ZERO AS OF 2 AM PST AT ELY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTH TO AFFECT NORTHERN NEVADA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND EVEN COLDER AIR TO
THE STATE.

TODAY. THIS SHOULD A BE DRY PERIOD. THE NEAR-ZONAL ORIENTATION OF
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE PROGRESSIVE RIDGE AXIS STRIKING THROUGH
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND SOUTHERN IDAHO AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DOWN COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE WINDS ALOFT BACK FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
H7 TEMPERATURES OF -10 C OVER ELKO THIS MORNING WILL WARM TO -6 C
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW FEATURE WILL SAG DOWN
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. DURING THIS TIME A 110-130
KT UPPER JET WILL MOVE OVER NEVADA. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER
THE ALREADY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE REINFORCED AND SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD SOUTH FROM THE IDAHO-OREGON BORDER AREA THIS EVENING TO
NEAR HIGHWAY 50 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST AREAS. FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY COULD RECEIVE
AROUND 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH UP TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AND ACROSS THE
INDEPENDENCE MOUNTAIN RANGE. 1-3 INCHES OF DRY SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE ELKO AND SPRING CREEK AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. H7 TEMPERATURES OF -6 C OVER ELKO TONIGHT WILL DROP TO -15
C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LONG RANGE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH A COLD UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENING AND DIVING INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV FROM THE NORTH DURING THE BEGINNING AND
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE REGION FROM WHERE THIS SYSTEM IS
APPROACHING FROM WILL RESULT IN THIS SYSTEM BEING SIGNIFICANTLY
MOISTURE STARVED...SO WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED...THE MAIN AFFECT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE DAYS AT
YEARS END. ON THOSE DAYS...HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS ACROSS EASTERN NV AND ONLY MID 20S
AT THE WARMEST LOCALES. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 5 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT WELL BELOW ZERO WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
COVER IS IN PLACE. THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL END BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN CA AND AZ. A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODIFY BEGINNING THURSDAY AND APPROACH NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA...LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS FOR KWMC AND KEKO ARE POSSIBLE AFTER
06Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/89/89


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