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000
FXUS65 KLKN 211005
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
Issued by National Weather Service RENO NV
305 AM PDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Valley rain and mountain snow will move through northeast and
north central Nevada through this evening. Snow will bring
hazardous travel conditions to the to the passes along I-80 and
US-50, and possibly the highest passes on US-6. The weekend will
feature cool conditions with a warm up during the first half of
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

The surface cold front appears to have passed through the bulk of
the CWA early this morning. The only areas that have not seen
frontal passage yet are in the far southeast portion of the
CWA...including Ely. IR satellite imagery shows the band of most
enhanced clouds behind the front draped across the northern
portion of the forecast area. The band of clouds is showing signs
of pivoting that would indicate a baroclinic leaf-like structure
developing that may be signaling a slowing of the over upper level
trough of low pressure.

The heaviest precipitation resides under this band of enhanced
clouds and reports from local rain gauges stretching across
northern Lander and Eureka counties into Elko County show that
more precipitation has already fallen than originally forecast. We
have increased QPF a bit more for the early morning hours.

Model guidance persists in starting to move the main band of
precipitation through the bulk of the forecast area by early
evening. This could be wishful thinking if a low is redeveloping
along the current leaf structure. The good news is snow levels
largely remain above 6500 feet at this time. This means the main
impact will be to the higher passes this morning with
accumulations down to as low as 6000 feet at times. The heaviest
snows will be in the higher elevations. See the current advisory
for more detail on accumulations. Being mid-September...any snow
that falls in the valley locations will struggle to accumulate
during the day as temperatures rise into mid to upper 40s.

The nature of the rain/snow should transition to showers later
this evening and overnight with only minimal accumulations after
midnight. The presence of the upper level trough will keep at
least slight chances for rain/snow showers around through at
least Saturday afternoon. Temperatures stay below normal through
the short term part of the forecast.

.LONG TERM...

The upper low begins to move east late Saturday and early
Sunday...but the current guidance is a little slower than previous
runs with this solution. That means temperatures may be a bit
slower to warm to near normal...not reaching those levels until
closer to the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Drying should take
place starting Monday. Light winds persist through the extended
period of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...

Behind the cold front passing through the forecast area this
morning there will be occasional MVFR condition for valleys
locations east of a line from Mountain City to Austin. West of
that line conditions the valleys will remain mainly VFR. Of
course...there will be plentiful areas of mountain obscurations
and IFR conditions in the heavier precipitation above 6500-7000
feet.

KEKO should generally see no worse than MVFR today. KELY will
start VFR but is likely to drop to MVFR or perhaps a period of
IFR conditions by late morning as precipitation moves into the
region. Winds will also switch at KELY from south to north with
frontal passage.

For KTPH gusty winds will develop later today from the north-
northwest and a period of rain is also possible this afternoon.
KWMC will be west of most of the heavy weather...but gusty west
to northwest winds are possible through the day.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for
Northern Elko County-Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka
County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko
County-Southeastern Elko County-Southern Lander County and
Southern Eureka County-Southwestern Elko County-White Pine
County.

&&

$$

99/99/99