Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 292158
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
258 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON REMAINS ACTIVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND IS
BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.
HEAVY PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED MONSOON
EVENT...AND WILL POSSIBLY PERSIST UNTIL NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A MOIST PATTERN IS ON DECK
WITH...THE DEW PTS FOR ELY AND TPH OVER 50F. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE FOR ELKO WAS 82F AND EASILY REACHED. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
MOISTURE LADEN...WITH PWS FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING AT 1.01 OF AN INCH
FROM KEKO WHICH IS 173 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND 1.3 OF AN INCH AT
LAS VEGAS WHICH IS 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE
WELL OVER .75 PWS OVER THE LKN CWA IN BOTH HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALONG A SIMILAR VEIN...THE CAPE IS
AVERAGING OVER 800 J/KG ON THE NAM FOR THIS EVENT...ALONG WITH A
BROAD SWATH OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. THE PROGGED SOUNDINGS FOR
ELY ARE CLOSE TO SATURATED PROFILE FROM 600 MB TO 500 MB. CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THESE WILL BE SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE WINDEX
FOR ELY IS AT 46 WHILE THE WINDEX AT ELKO IS 50...OUTFLOWS WILL
BE ROBUST. THE MODELS AGAIN DEPICT A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO PERTURB THE
ATMOSPHERE. AGAIN...HIGH CONFIDENCE QPF EVENT THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND FAIRLY MOIST. GFS AND EC MODELS
INDICATE A FLAT 500MB HIGH OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK
LOW ROTATING THROUGH NORTHEAST NV FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER EXTREME NE NV. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THERMAL TROF REFORMS OVER CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN NV WITH A
SURFACE HIGH OVER EAST CENTRAL NV. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS CLOSE TO
ZERO OVER MOST OF WHITE PINE COUNTY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY...THERMAL TROF SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NV WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 0.75 TO
0.90 INCHES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS....SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. KELY POSSIBLY WILL HAVE SHOWERS HEAVY AT TIMES...
THUS MAY DECREASE CIGS/VSBY TO IFR LOCALLY. ANY TSRA MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS. ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BIGGEST FORECASTING CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE WAS
THE LALS. TWEAKED THE TSRA DISTRIBUTION WHICH BUMPED DOWN THE LALS
FROM 5 TO 3. OTHERWISE...FOREAST IS ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

97/87/87/97




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