Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 300911
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
211 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BECOME DRIER.
HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LATEST RUN...ADVERTISING A CONTINUED
PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
MORE OF AN AMPLITUDE SURGE IN THE RIDGE TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE CWFA. THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INFLUENCE THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY.

TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE CURRENT RIDGE BEGINS TO RAPIDLY
AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE...THE RESULT WILL BE A
PULSE SURGE OF WARMTH FOR THE LKN CWFA. MAX TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA...COULD JUMP 5-8 DEGREES OVER
FRIDAYS HIGHS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ELKO COUNTY.

MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A DRY
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD...ONLY IN THE MID 50S
WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST
OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO ENCROACH UPON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE ENHANCED DURING THE DAY...
PROVIDING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER JUMP IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. SOME PLACES WILL EXCEED 90 DEGREES. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LONG RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE /GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN/ ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. A PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN AREA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES FURTHER...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

BROAD TROUGHINESS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REACH SOUTH INTO
EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TAKE PLACE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF HUMBOLDT/ELKO
COUNTIES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AT 00Z. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL REMAINS AN OUTLIER BUT CONSISTENT WITH
ITSELF OVER PREVIOUS RUNS ALLOWING THE TROUGH ENTERING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BECOME CUTOFF AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION WOULD
CONFINE ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE MORE REASONABLE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WHICH
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER`S GRIDDED DATABASE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE
KEKO TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/89/89



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