Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 090017
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
417 PM PST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A persistent flow of Pacific moisture into the Great
Basin will help generate an active weather pattern through the
upcoming weekend. Freezing rain is still a small possibility this
evening across some parts of central Nevada but a switchover to
all valley rain will occur overnight as temperatures rise above
freezing. Snow accumulation across mountainous terrain across
northern and northeastern Nevada, including the Ruby Mountains,
could surpass one foot by late Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. Ample Pacific moisture
continues to stream into the region in concert with a warming
near surface layer spreading west to east across Nevada. This will
act to raise snow levels considerably during the next 12 hours
with rain or a rain/snow mix spreading east-northeastward
throughout valleys of central and northern parts of the state
through tonight. Snow levels will range from about 7500 in western
Lander county to about 6500 to 7000 ft across Elko county. Road
temperatures are rising but still below freezing along the I-80
corridor so but freezing rain/drizzle that does occur in the
central parts of the state should transition to a rain/snow mix
later this evening in addition to a air temperatures rising above
freezing.

Precip will diminish across northeastern NV tonight but mountain
and higher elevation flurries/light snow will continue through
the night. Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing across a large
part of the CWA later this afternoon. However, stagnant colder
valleys still have the opportunity to see some freezing
drizzle/light freezing rain for a brief period of time before
changing to a mix or rain by daybreak. This could pose a black
ice threat especially on bridges and overpasses before
temperatures rise above freezing across all valleys in NV Friday.
The next wave of deeper moisture and precip will arrive Friday in
the form of valley rain and mountain and higher elevation snow
particularly across Elko county and the Rubies. Models show
another more robust push of moisture into the state Saturday
yielding moderate to heavy mountain snow with slightly lowered
snow levels to about 6000 ft. Models indicate drier conditions
across the state Sunday but light snow showers/flurries are likely
to continue especially across far northern NV.

The consistent moisture overrunning will bring copious snow
accumulations to the higher terrain and mountains in northeast
Nevada, including the Rubies, Friday through early Sunday. 1 to 2
feet of snow is possible in the Rubies with slightly less, but
still significant amounts, in the higher terrain of northern Elko
county, generally 8 to 14 inches. Thus, an elevation based (above
6500 ft) winter storm warning has been issued for this event.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday. Latest GFS model run
has come into a little better agreement with the ECMWF model,
as models now show near zonal flow aloft Sunday night through
Wednesday. Backed off on light precipitation across portions of
central Nevada Sunday night into Monday as models agree that light
snow will be limited to the mountains north of I80. Air will be a
little cooler by Tuesday as increased moisture moves through
Northern California and into Nevada, at which time snow levels
will be around 4500 feet across Humboldt and Elko Counties, rising
up toward 6000 feet along the highway 50 corridor through Tuesday
night. Will likely see 2-5 inches of snow to valley areas north
of the Highway 50 corridor Tuesday and Tuesday night, with amounts
tapering off further south to the highway 6 corridor. At this
time models are too far off on timing and track for specifics.

Warmer air moves in Wednesday with most valley precipitation
changing over to rain, latest across Elko County where the change
over may be Wednesday evening. Valley rain and mountain snow will
continue into Thursday, heaviest across northern Nevada with very
little precipitation expected south of Highway 50 on Thursday.

Moderate to heavy mountain snowfall is becoming more likely for
northern Nevada from next Tuesday through next Thursday. Trended
pops up accordingly with this latest forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Precipitation at KWMC and KEKO will change over from
snow to rain either late this afternoon or early evening.
Precipitation at KELY is much lighter and will remain snow into
early Friday when showers end. KTPH is expected to remain dry over
the next 24 hours.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
Humboldt County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander County and
Northern Eureka County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-South
Central Elko County-Southeastern Elko County-Southern Lander
County and Southern Eureka County-Southwestern Elko County-White
Pine County.

&&

$$

93/96/96



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