Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 230900
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL ENJOY A MILD COMFORTABLE SATURDAY WITH
DRIER AIR AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A STRONG WARMING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING NEVADA THIS MORNING, WITH SINKING AIR
EATING AWAY AT THE REMAINING CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. THE
LAST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART EASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY SHORTLY.

TODAY...MILD AND DRY AIR WILL BE ENJOYED ACROSS NEVADA, WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. NW WINDS AT 10-20 MPH
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW LATE AUGUST
NORMALS. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ALONG THE EASTERN
NEVADA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, BUT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY HARD TO COME BY, CERTAINLY
NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

TONIGHT...COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WITH A CLEAR SKY WILL DELIVER CHILLY TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH LOWER 40S COMMON. COLDEST VALLEYS WILL SEE
UPPER 30S FOR SEVERAL HOURS NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY, WITH THE COLDEST
VALLEYS OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY FREEZING IN THE UPPER 20S. GAVE
SOME THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING PATCHY FROST TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
COLDEST VALLEYS, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPEARS TO DRY TO SUPPORT,
SO LEFT OUT. SOME GARDENERS WILL WANT TO TEND TO THEIR TENDEREST
PLANTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...SECOND REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
OREGON BY EVENING. THIS PROCESS WILL INCREASE LIFT, MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY A BIT ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA, JUST ENOUGH TO BRING A
THUNDER MENTION BACK INTO THE FORECAST. FOLLOWED 00Z NAM`S
DEPICTION OF CONVECTION PLACEMENT, KEEPING THE COVERAGE LIMITED TO
ISOLATED (POP < 25%) AND FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ELKO AND
WHITE PINE COUNTIES. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, WITH PW OF
0.50-0.75 INCH, SO MANY UPDRAFTS THAT DO FORM WILL ONLY PRODUCE
VIRGA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES OVER SATURDAY`S
READINGS, BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE FORECAST PERIOD
COMMENCES WITH BROAD TROFFING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN H5 LOW
OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
TROF`S EXIT HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC. WITH THE DELAY IN THE TROF EXITING
THE REGION NEEDED TO BUMP UP POPS OVER NORTHEASTERN NV FOR
MONDAY...AND LOCATIONS NEAR JACKPOT MAY EVEN TRACE ON TUESDAY. WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWER HEIGHTS IN PLACE EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE. ONCE THE TROF
EXITS...EXPECT THE SUBSIDENCE TO RESULT ON A WIDESPREAD WARMING AND
DRYING TREND. THE MODELS HAVE THE PWS PLUNGING BELOW .25 OF AN INCH.
WITH THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE
MID-80S AND POSSIBLY 90F.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENSUING 24 HR PERIOD
AT ALL TAF SITES. PUT VCTS IN TAF FOR KELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT OF DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXISTS TO THE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES. IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE...LIGHT
TURBULENCE POSSIBLE...AND WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE FIRE
DISTRICT TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH, BUT MIN RH REMAINING
NEAR OR ABOVE 15%. ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN FWZ 470 AND EASTERN FWZ 455 THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED WITH PW NEAR 0.50 INCH, AND COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AT BEST, BUT ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE
IN EASTERN FWZ 455 AND EASTERN FWZ 470 THIS AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT, WITH PW ABOVE 0.50 INCH EAST OF
THE RUBY MOUNTAINS, TO NEAR 0.75 INCH ALONG THE UT/NV BORDER. NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES NEVADA FROM THE NW, INCREASING LIFT WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS ELKO/WHITE PINE COUNTIES. ISOLATED
CONVECTION, AGAIN WITH SOME DRY LIGHTNING, EXPECTED ACROSS FWZ
469, 470 AND 455 WITH LAL OF 2-3. CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL
TREND TOWARD DRY, PRODUCE MOSTLY VIRGA, AND FOCUS ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/97/97/99




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