Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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436
FXUS65 KLKN 212225
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
225 PM PST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A winter storm system moves into the region starting
Wednesday night  bringing more snow to the state. Active weather
will persist through the weekend and into next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday.

It`s easier, in the short range, to talk about the full long wave
trough persisting over the western US, with nearly continuous
short waves dropping into the Great Basin through the period.
Starting tonight, a nearly continuous series of small to medium
scale short waves moves over the region with sufficient moisture
and cold air to provide numerous snow showers over most of
central, eastern, and northern Nevada. High will struggle to
reach freezing and lows will remain in the single digits and teens
over the region. Best POPS will be Thursday, progressing
southeast from western Humboldt County to the Utah line over White
Pine and Nye Counties. Then an are of light showers on Friday,
concentrated mainly over northern Nevada, then Saturday,
increasing pops again, with northern Nevada getting the best shot.


Snow totals Thursday-Friday max out in the mountains of Jarbidge,
Rubies/Humboldts, Toiyabes, Schell, and Great Basin NP with up to
5 inches or so. Max totals on Saturday mainly over far northern
Nevada, the Jarbidge and Independence ranges with a few more
inches. If travel problems do occur they will be brief and limited
to passes.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through next Wednesday.

A generally cold and occasionally snowy pattern will continue
across northern and central Nevada through the extended forecast
period. A series of progressive shortwave troughs embedded within
the northwest to north flow aloft will rotate through the broad
upper trough over the western CONUS during this time.

Both the GFS and EC are in general agreement that three systems
will likely affect the region: Saturday afternoon through Sunday
morning, Monday into Tuesday morning, and later next week
beginning in the far north late Wednesday night. This weekend`s
system will move along fairly quickly as it drops down into
Nevada from Oregon and Idaho. A couple of stronger storms could
impact the region early and again later next week as the models
dig these systems farther west and south, while initially keeping
the better dynamics and heavier precipitation across California.
At this time, believe mainly light valley and moderate mountain
snows will accompany these systems in Nevada, though locally
higher amounts remain a possibility until future model runs better
define the evolution of these later two storms.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue across northern Nevada
until late tonight into early Thursday morning. Next winter system
and cold front will bring snow showers with MVFR, and possibly
brief IFR CIGs/VISs to KWMC between 11-16Z, and between 15-21Z at
KEKO. In the wake of the front, some scattered light snow
showers/VCSH could linger mainly around the mountains of Elko
County.

VFR conditions will persist across central Nevada until
early Thursday afternoon at KELY and KTPH. Snow showers associated
with the cold front are expected to impact KELY with MVFR to
intermittent IFR conditions between 21Z Thursday and 06Z Friday,
and KTPH with MVFR conditions from 23Z Thursday to 03Z Friday.

Surface winds will gust over 20 kts ahead of the front during
Thursday morning and afternoon at KELY and KTPH. Stronger post-
frontal northwest to north wind gusts of 30 to near 40 kts could
develop later Thursday night into Friday morning.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

98/95/95



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