Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 030928
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
228 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP TODAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME
OF THE STORMS IN NORTHERN NEVADA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BE
STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN LANDER THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE DAILY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

A NEGATIVE TILT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIE ACROSS THE LKN CWFA
TODAY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG
AND BELOW THE RIDGE AXIS AND TODAY SHOULD BE NO DIFFERENT. ALL
AREAS COULD SEE LIGHTNING EVENTUALLY TODAY WITH STORMS MORE
PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY ON THEN FOCUSING
ON NORTHEAST NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RIDGE
AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS HOWEVER
MOST CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF THIS EVENING. THEN ON SATURDAY
THINGS COULD GET BUSIER. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
MOIST LAYER FROM EUREKA TO JACKPOT WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE THIS LINE AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGIN TO
PULL EAST TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS MODEL
IS HINTING AT AN H7 CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY WITH
HELICITY VALUES TOUCHING ON 300 UNITS. STORMS COULD SHOW ROTATION
OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY
AND SOME 100 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEVADA. SAY GOODBYE TO THE 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD EXCELLENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK HAS IMPROVED. THE GFS/EURO BOTH SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
JUST WEST OF SAN FRAN ON WED.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE KEPT POPS QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTH. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAIN...SIMILAR TO JULY 4TH 2013...IS POSSIBLE. THIS COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE SQUEEZE PLAY CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. FCH SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND
ANOMALOUS LOW OFF THE CALI COAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DRYING TREND WITH SW FLOW OVER
THE SIERRA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS MODEST
FLOW/ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOMALOUS DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MEANDER WEST OF SAN FRAN. THIS WILL KEEP MARGINAL FLOW
ALOFT AND AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE. STORM COVERAGE WILL PRIMARILY BE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS FEATURE WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS IT
COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF CONTINUED STORMINESS. IN CENTRAL NEVADA...
IT COULD BECOME QUITE DRY WITH GUSTY SW/S WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KTPH. TEMPOS WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING FOR TSRA. DECIDED TO KEEP KTPH
DRY...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. THEY WILL HAVE AT LEAST CU BUILD UP AND
PERHAPS VCSH. AGAIN...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY TS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY REMAINS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP
VCTS IN KELY/KWMC AND VCHS AT KEKO.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94


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