Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 272322
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
322 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW WILL BE CONFINED
TO CENTRAL NEVADA ON SUNDAY...WITH A CLEARING SKY EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW...GUSTY NORTH WINDS...AND COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...GIVEN CONVECTIVE TRENDS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE AND THE
LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK NW OF THE CWA, EXTENDED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR MOST ZONES TO 7 PM THIS EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES. BT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 200 PM /

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW WILL BE CONFINED
TO CENTRAL NEVADA ON SUNDAY...WITH A CLEARING SKY EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW...GUSTY NORTH WINDS...AND COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

NUMEROUS SNOW/SNOW PELLET SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NEVADA THROUGH THIS EVENING, AS A STRONG 541 DM UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM WESTERN OREGON. SHOWERS WILL BE VERY CONVECTIVE
THROUGH SUNSET, WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LIFTED INDEX FALLING BELOW ZERO AS OF NOON,
WITH CAPE OF 100-200 J/KG. SHOWERS WILL TAKE THE FORM OF SNOW AND
GRAUPEL FOR MOST VALLEYS, WITH MINIMAL TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
VALLEY ROADWAYS WILL REMAIN WET THROUGH SUNSET. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, AS UPPER LOW SINKS
SOUTH TO JUST WEST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY 4 AM SATURDAY. SMALL
ACCUMULATIONS AND SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS ARE LIKELY WHERE SHOWERS
FORM, BUT LACK OF ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER
LOW`S PLACEMENT, WITH A 545 LOW NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BY 4 PM. STRONG
COLD POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL RESIDE FROM THIS LOW ACROSS
NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME REDUCED COVERAGE IN
THE MORNING HOURS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW/SNOW PELLET SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NEVADA BY MIDDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
DRIVING FORCE BEHIND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY, AND SINCE GFS IS
QUITE ROBUST WITH THIS ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA, RAISED
SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS. NAM AGAIN COMPUTES SURFACE-BASED
CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WARRANTING ANOTHER MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. TRAVEL IMPACTS
LIMITED DURING THE DAY, WITH ROADS PRIMARILY WET. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT MORE ORGANIZED SNOW BANDING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NYE/WHITE PINE COUNTIES. QUITE CHILLY
FOR THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY (AND THE LAST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL
WINTER) WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S, ACTUALLY
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL COLLAPSE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA AFTER SUNSET, WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING BY 4 AM SUNDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME, MORE ORGANIZED SNOW BANDING CONTINUES TO BE
INDICATED ACROSS MAINLY NYE/WHITE PINE COUNTIES. INCREASED SNOW
COVERAGE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY SE OF A GABBS-EUREKA-CHERRY
CREEK LINE SATURDAY NIGHT, MATCHING WFOS LAS VEGAS/SALT LAKE CITY.
SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS NYE/WHITE PINE
COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT, AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY STILL
BE REQUIRED, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOW FALLING ON ROADWAYS AT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MEANDERS NEAR LOS ANGELES, WITH
ENOUGH FORCING PERSISTING TO KEEP SNOW GOING OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEVADA (NYE/WHITE PINE COUNTIES). MODELS HINTING THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL FALL NEAR TONOPAH SUNDAY, AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR A POSSIBLE HEADLINE, ALTHOUGH ROADS WILL AGAIN
TREND TOWARD WET AFTER SUNRISE IN THE EARLY MARCH SUN. ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA, MARCH WILL COME IN LIKE A LAMB, WITH A PARTLY
SUNNY SKY, A LIGHT NE BREEZE, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S.

MONDAY...FORECAST IS COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAIN, AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH, AND IS ABSORBED INTO
GREAT BASIN TROUGH. GIVEN A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OVER NEVADA,
FORECASTED ISOLATED DISORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW ALONG WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. 12Z ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT,
DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NE NEVADA
MONDAY NIGHT.  TURNER

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DECREASING SNOW SHOWERS WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH
BREEZY WINDS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO SCATTER
OUT WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. ALL MODELS ARE DEPICTING A RIDGE
BEGINNING TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...WDLY SCT-SCT -SHRA/-SHSN WILL CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVER NORTHERN NEVADA THIS EVENING AND THE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TOMORROW N-NE10-15G25KT AFTER
18Z.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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