Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
854 FXUS65 KLKN 150729 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1229 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1229 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025 * Heat Advisory for most of Northern and Central Nevada until 9 PM PDT this evening * A few strong to severe thunderstorms expected in Northeastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening * Red Flag Warning for White Pine and Northeastern Nye Counties until 10 PM PDT this evening due to gusty winds and low relative humidity values * Red Flag Warning for Eastern Elko County until 10 PM PDT this evening due to scattered dry thunderstorms && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 1229 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An area of high pressure will be centered over Arizona today. An upper-level trough of low pressure will dive southward across Northern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. This trough of low pressure should provide enough lift and atmospheric instability for thunderstorm development this afternoon in most of Northern and Central Nevada. A few severe thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Elko County this afternoon into this evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts up to 65 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon in Northeastern Nevada due to scattered dry thunderstorms. Farther south, critical fire weather conditions are expected in White Pine and Northeastern Nye Counties due to low relative humidity values and gusty winds. Now, on to the heat. High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon will be around five degrees above normal for this time of year, resulting in a moderate risk for heat-related illnesses. Although heat events like this are relative common and happen many times a year, heat-related impacts are possible for those new to the area if simple precautions are not taken. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the majority of Northern and Central Nevada until 9 PM PDT this evening. Here are probabilities of triple digit heat for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Tuesday, July 15th, 2025: Winnemucca - 80% Battle Mountain - 75% Crescent Valley - 75% Elko - 50% Carlin - 50% West Wendover - 30% A ridge of high pressure will extend northwestward across Northern Nevada Wednesday. An upper-level area of low pressure near the Baja Peninsula will begin to move northward Thursday. This cyclone aloft may be responsible for thunderstorm development in Central Nevada both Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon. A ridge of high pressure will move eastward across the Silver State late this weekend into early next week. High temperatures will remain above seasonal values each afternoon Wednesday into early next week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence in a moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon. Moderate forecast confidence in the development of strong to severe thunderstorms in Northeastern Nevada this afternoon. High forecast confidence in critical fire weather conditions in most of Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. Dry thunderstorm probabilities were increased in Northeastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals through Wednesday morning. Winds will be light to breezy out of the West to Southwest at 5KT to 15KT with gusts up 25KT possible. scattered dry thunderstorms are possible at all terminals Tuesday afternoon and evening with erratic outflow winds up to 35KT and few lightning strikes the main hazards. Ceilings at Tuesday afternoon with scattered CU will vary between 08kFt to 12kFT. AMD NOT SKED at KELY due to malfunctioning VIS sensor. AMD NOT SKED at KBAM due to communication disruption. && .FIRE WEATHER... A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Eastern Elko County this afternoon into this evening due to scattered dry thunderstorms. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for White Pine and Northeastern Nye Counties this afternoon into this evening due to wind gusts near 30 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 7 percent. Isolated dry thunderstorm are possible in parts of Eastern Nevada both Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in Western Humboldt County Friday due to wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 8 percent. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday NVZ030-033-036>038-040-041. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM PDT Tuesday NVZ425-470. && $$ DISCUSSION...87 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...87