Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 260955
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
255 AM PDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Mostly sunny today with above normal temperatures
lasting into Thursday. A Pacific front pushes into northwest
Nevada Thursday afternoon and slowly moves across the state on
Friday. Moisture will accompany the front with showers increasing
across the north Thursday night and becoming widespread on Friday.
A few thunderstorms will be possible on Friday as well.
.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.
Nevada is in between offshore long wave trough and downstream warm
ridge axis centered over Utah. Daytime temps will be warmer and
similar on Thursday with valleys in the upper 60s or lower 70s.
Not perfectly clear as some cirrus streams across nrn Nevada.
Pacific front is off the srn Oregon and nrn California coast
slowly moves east into Thursday. This front moves into the
northwest Nevada corner on Thursday with decent moisture transport
aligned with the front. A few showers will be developing across
Humboldt county, although north of Winnemucca. Breezy conditions
are expected to develop Thursday afternoon thanks to the thermal
gradient associated with the front and a developing surface low
centered over east central Nevada.
.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Wednesday.
With the upper level pattern continuing to be progressive,
several storms are poised to move through the Great Basin to
possibly yield some significant rain totals. The strength and
moisture content is hard to determine at this time it varies from
model to model. There is likely to be an infusion of moisture from
a dying tropical system by late Thursday or Friday.
Thursday night through Friday night. A slightly positive-tilted
mean trough will be the focus of entertainment as it develops and
settles over the eastern Pacific. A robust shortwave will move
through California and Nevada and some remnant tropical moisture
from a disintegrating Seymour will be infused into the flow. With
a good fetch of moisture, this system could produce a half to one-
inch of rain for the valleys of northern Nevada as it crosses and
re-develops lee-side of the Sierras. This system also looks to be
favorable for thunderstorm formation from central to the
northeast corner of Nevada. Low temperatures will be in the 40s.
High temperatures will range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s.
Saturday through Saturday night. This should mainly be a dry period
in between systems. A strong low pressure system will drop south
off the coast of northern California. The southwest flow across
the Sierras will likely scrape off some of the moisture content.
Some model discrepancy is already showing up as the GFS model is
an outlier in bringing precipitation into western Humboldt County
late Saturday night. High temperatures will be in the 60s. Low
temperatures will be in the 40s.
Sunday through Wednesday. A little more discrepancy is showing up
between the model solutions due to the amount of energy the next
system is producing. A strong short wave is progged to lift
northeast from the mean trough hanging out over the Pacific, then
move through northern Nevada. Model consistency is generally good
with this short wave. Then, the ECMWF model re-loads the mean
trough with another strong low center off the coast while the GFS
model tends to keep more of the energy up north in a broader, more
shallow short wave depiction. The ECMWF then ejects the low
through the western CONUS at a later time, thus weather for
Tuesday, or lack of, is a big question mark. High temperatures
will range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. Low temperatures
will range from the mid 20s to the mid 30s.
.AVIATION...VFR conditions for the next 24 hours at all terminals.
Some southerly gusty afternoon winds are possible at both KELY
.FIRE WEATHER...Much above normal temperatures today and Thursday
with highs in the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Isolated showers will
be developing over fire zone 467 Thursday afternoon as Pacific
moisture and cold front pushes into the area. A Pacific storm
will bring showers to the entire area Thursday night and Friday.
In addition to the showers, a few thunderstorms are expected on