Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 271045
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
245 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MOVES UP THROUGH NEVADA
TODAY...THEN EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND NIGHT. DRY
WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO MOST OF CENTRAL NEVADA
ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS MOVING UP INTO CENTRAL NEVADA HAS PRODUCED A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN AT TONOPAH BETWEEN 11PM AND 2AM...WITH MORE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY NORTH
TODAY. MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA WILL RECEIVE MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES...UP INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ELKO
COUNTIES WHERE 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF IS LIKELY. WESTERN
HUMBOLDT AND SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE THE LEAST
MOISTURE...GENERALLY IN THE TRACE TO 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
RANGE. ELEVATIONS BELOW 5500 FEET WILL HAVE ALL RAIN TODAY.
BETWEEN 5500 AND 6500 FEET PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN
HOWEVER A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF ALL
SNOW...WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
OFF THEIR RECENT NEAR-RECORD LEVELS TODAY...YET STILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN VALLEY
AREAS. DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE A
WEAKER SYSTEM SPREADS LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH
PATTERN HANGING OVER THE CWFA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED. THE MAIN
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BUT THERE MAY
BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF SNOW FROM THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. SAW NO
REASON TO CHANGE THAT ASPECT. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF QPF THE MODELS ARE THROWING OUT AND SNOW LEVELS SEEM TO
SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW FRIDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
REMAINING RAIN IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY INCLUDING
TONOPAH.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS. THERE
MAY BE SOME DIRT RIDING OVER THE RIDGE CREST SO IT IS POSSIBLE TO
GET SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD DRY
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY. KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH WILL ALL SEE IFR
CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITION MAY LAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AT KWMC AND KEKO.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/92/92



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