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000
FXUS65 KLKN 051534
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
734 AM PST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BONE-CHILLING
TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO THE THE SILVER
STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE RECORD- BREAKING LOW
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...ADJUSTED TODAY`S FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...WHERE
LINGEING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAKE CLEARING
DIFFICULT. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. RCM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 220 AM /

SYNOPSIS...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BONE-CHILLING
TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO THE THE SILVER
STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE RECORD- BREAKING LOW
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A VERY COLD AIR MASS HAS
SETTLED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN
THE PROCESS OF BEING SET. TEMPERATURES IN WHITE PINE COUNTY
VALLEYS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THAT ZONE
THROUGH 8 AM PST. IR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE COLDEST AIR IS OVER WHITE
PINE COUNTY AND DRAINAGE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 10 MPH ARE CREATING -35
TO AROUND -40 WIND CHILLS AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...HOWEVER MODIFY
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. WITH
LITTLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED...A FRESH SNOW DEPOSIT
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MORE EXTREME LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
SOME CLOUDINESS IN PLAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY
FLURRY CONDITIONS...THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. THEN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
EXISTING COLD TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL STRETCH OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN AND SCOOP UP SOME MOISTURE AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE LKN CWFA. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
BEGIN AFFECTING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 BY AFTERNOON.
INCREASED POPS WEST OF THE SANTA ROSAS IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH OF SNOW TO
EXTREME NORTHWEST HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY POOLED OVER THE
STATE. THE DEPTH AND TRAJECTORY OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO
INHIBIT THE SIERRAS FROM SCRAPING OFF MUCH OF THE MOISTURE. THE
TIMING INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATION BEGINNING IN EARNEST OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING TO ALL ZONES
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY ADDING UP TO
BE GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS FOR ALL ZONES. HOWEVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CONVERGENCE ZONE INCLUDING
AUSTIN AND EUREKA COULD RECEIVE A HEAVIER DOSE OF SNOW IF A BAND
SETS UP ALONG THAT CORRIDOR. WIND SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
PLAYER WITH THIS STORM AS THE MEAN JET ENERGY CRUISES ALOFT OF THE
SIERRAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO THE 20S.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

CONTINUED VERY COLD THROUGH MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WRAP UP QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN NEVADA. BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO
NEVADA BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. SUBZERO TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COMMON SUNDAY MORNING, BUT STAYED ABOVE THE COLDEST GUIDANCE WITH
CLOUDS AND NW BREEZES OF 5-15 MPH LINGERING OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME ZONES.

SUNDAY...VERY COLD. PARTIAL CLEARING UNDER DRY COLD NW FLOW.
DESPITE WEAK DECEMBER SUNSHINE, EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE
STUCK IN THE TEENS. MORE RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...EXTREMELY COLD. SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
ONE OF CLASSIC COLD FOR NEVADA, WITH COLD AIR INVADING ALOFT OVER A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH AND ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE. 00Z GFS NOW
AGREES WITH ECMWF PLACING A 1040-44 MB SURFACE HIGH SMACK DAB OVER
EASTERN NEVADA NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY. WIDESPREAD FRESH FLUFFY SNOW
COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GROUND FROM SATURDAY. WITH 700 MB
WINDS STILL NEAR 20 KTS, UNSURE IF COMPLETE DECOUPLING WILL TAKE
PLACE, THEREFORE STAYED ABOVE THE COLDEST GUIDANCE. THAT SAID, LOW
TEMPERATURES OF -5 TO -15 WILL BE COMMON MONDAY MORNING, WITH
READINGS AS LOW AS -20 BELOW IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MODERATE, BUT IT
WILL BE VERY SLOW, AND CERTAINLY NOT AS FAST AS MODELS SUGGEST.
ATMOSPHERE WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT, AS FLOW BACKS TO WESTERLY, BUT
HEAVY COLD SURFACE AIR LIKELY WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSIONS IN
EASTERN NEVADA VALLEYS. LONG RANGE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SHOW
THIS INVERSION FROM ELKO TO ELY, SO PURPOSELY UNDERCUT EASTERN
NEVADA VALLEY TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. IF WE`RE LUCKY, ELKO
WILL APPROACH FREEZING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY FOR ALL ZONES
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING A SIGNIFICANT
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT ABOUT NEXT THURSDAY. THIS COULD
PROVE TO BE QUITE THE MESS, IF THE COLD ARCTIC AIR IS STILL TRAPPED
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT WAY TOO EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFICS. JUST KEPT SNOW
CHANCES MENTIONED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AS INHERITED, BUT SOME ICE
MAY BE INVOLVED TOO. STAY TUNED. BT

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 12Z FRI. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL KEEP BKN/OVC
LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE AT 3-4K FT AGL, PERHAPS HIGH END MVFR CIGS AT
TIMES AT KWMC/KEKO/KELY. ISO -SHSN/FLURRIES ACROSS ELKO/WHITE PINE
COUNTIES, BUT NOTHING MORE THAN VCSH AT KEKO/KELY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD -SN, AND
ASSOCIATED IFR CIGS/VIS, AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 00Z SAT THROUGH 00Z
SUN. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR WHITE PINE
COUNTY.

&&

$$

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