Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 291433 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
730 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS IN A MOIST MONSOON FLOW. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABSENT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND HAS ONLY
MADE LIMITED INROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CLOUD
EQUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM
THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ENOUGH CLOUDS OR MARINE LAYER HOWEVER TO
REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER 90S IN THE VLYS AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

A LITTLE EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE LA COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT THE STRATUS
FORMATION BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DO THIS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE OF HERNAN WAFTS
NORTHWARD. OPTIMISTS WILL CALL THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND
PESSIMISTS WILL SEE IT AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF DESERT OR MTN TSTMS...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW FOR INITIATION SO FOR NOW WILL
ONLY GO FOR A SLIGHT CHC. THE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO/KJ

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