Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 050418
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE RAIN BEGINNING NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND ALONG
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL NUDGE UP OFFSHORE WINDS
A BIT IN EVENING UPDATE FOR THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SURFACE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN TODAY. THE FORECASTED
LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -4.5 MB ON THURSDAY
MORNING. DESPITE THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS...STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS TO REACH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TOMORROW...RISING INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...THE RIDGE WILL START BREAKING DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN. COOLING WILL START AT THE
COAST SUNDAY AND WORK IT`S WAY INLAND THROUGH TUE WITH EVENTUALLY
SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR DEVELOPING. SHOULD START SEEING SOME HIGH
CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD LATE TUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM DOOR
CRACKS OPEN JUST A LITTLE. LATEST MODELS THOUGH SCALED BACK ON AN
ALREADY WEAK SYSTEM FOR US NEXT THU. THAT`S STILL OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK THAT GREAT AT THE MOMENT. STILL
LOTS OF TIME AND MODEL RUNS FOR THIS TO CHANGE THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...04/2340Z...

AT 2330Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AIRFIELDS DURING FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
VLIFR-LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB AND KSMX AFTER 10Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KT.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...04/800 PM...

MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS NEARSHORE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING MAY REACH LOCALLY MODERATE SPEEDS...BUT MOST
LIKELY WILL PEAK NEAR 15 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SCA WINDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...JLD

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