Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
FXUS66 KLOX 232351
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
451 PM PDT Sun Apr 23 2017
A low will arrive early this week and bring normal temperatures
and gusty winds to the mountains and central coast...and an
overnight marine layer. Around midweek we will be between a high
to the west...an a low to our east for fair skies...gusty winds
with temperatures to be above normal into the weekend.
Northwest to northerly flow will strengthen across the region
this afternoon and tonight resulting in advisory level winds over
much of the service area for the next few days. The areas affected
will include the Santa Barbara... Ventura... and Los Angeles
County mountains... the Antelope Valley... the Central Coast...
and the western half of the Santa Ynez range and the Santa Barbara
South Coast. The strongest winds will be in the mountains and
through the Interstate 5 corridor... though areas below the passes
and canyons of the Santa Barbara South coast will also be quite
gusty. Winds will weaken during midday but then will strengthen
again in the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will be shifting
more to the north-northeasterly direction by late on Tuesday.
Afternoon temperatures will continue to cool during the next few
days and will be near normal by Tuesday. It will be dry in most
locations during the period with the possible exception of the
north slopes of the Los Angeles County mountains near the Kern
County line Monday night and Tuesday morning where a northerly
flow will pile up clouds and create a slight chance of a shower.
A lingering upper level trough over the western states will keep a
moderately strong northwest to northerly flow across southwestern
California through Thursday. Wind advisory level gusts may
continue through the period for the northwest wind prone areas...
especially across southern Santa Barbara County... the Central
Coast... The Antelope Valley... and the mountains. Northerly flow
will bring some downslope warming to coastal and valley areas by
late in the week and temperatures may rise toward ninety degrees
by the weekend. This would result in another hot weekend with
afternoon temperatures up to ten degrees above normal.
At 2330Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was based at 1200 feet.
The top of the inversion was 2000 feet at 17 degrees Celsius.
Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF package. Through this
evening, high confidence in VFR conditions for all sites. For
tonight, low confidence in Central Coast TAFs remaining VFR (40%
chance of MVFR/IFR conditions 08Z-17Z). For areas south of Point
Conception, increasing confidence of MVFR cigs later tonight for
KLAX, KLGB, KOXR, and KCMA with a 20 percent chance that cigs
could lower into IFR category. There is also a 20 percent chance
of brief IFR cigs into KBUR and KVNY by early Monday morning.
High probability of LLWS and strong uddfs vcnty KSBA through
KLAX...moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. High confidence in VFR
conditions through this evening. For later tonight into Monday
morning, moderate confidence in return of MVFR conditions after
10Z (50% chance that airfield will remain VFR). There is a 20
percent chance of brief IFR conditions.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. VFR conditions are
anticipated through the period (with a 20% chance of MVFR/IFR CIGs
For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Strong
northwest winds are anticipated to continue through the week.
Currently, Gale Warning is in effect through Monday night. Gale
force winds will likely continue through Friday.
For the Inner Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast. For
the waters north of Point Sal, strong Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level winds are expected each afternoon/evening through Friday
with a 30% chance of Gale force winds developing Tuesday through
Friday. For the waters south of Point Conception, SCA level winds
are expected each afternoon and evening through Friday with the
strongest winds across western sections. There will be a 30%
chance of Gale force winds Tuesday through Thursday across western
With the gusty winds, seas will be very choppy this week, making
for hazardous boating conditions through the week.
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
34-35. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect until midnight PDT tonight
for zones 34-35-40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 8 PM
PDT Monday for zones 34-35-40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
39-52>54-59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
zones 645-650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(WED-SUN)
Very gusty north to northwest winds are expected across southern
Santa Barbara County, the Central Coast, the I-5 corridor, and
the Antelope Valley. Advisory level winds expected at times and
possibly exceeding warning levels, especially in the I-5 corridor
and southern SB County Wednesday and Thursday.