Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
FXUS66 KLOX 192205
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
205 PM PST Sun Feb 19 2017
A series of low pressure systems will bring some rain and cool
weather beginning tonight and persist through Wednesday. The highest
rainfall totals are expected to be north of Point Conception.
Drier weather is expected late in the week. Another storm is
expected next weekend.
Clouds filling in across the forecast this afternoon. Isolated
showers have occurred across Los Angeles and San Luis Obispo
counties today. Next storm system moving into California today,
with axis of highest moisture pointed towards Central California.
Satellite estimates show precipitable water values as high as 1.6
inches off the Central Coast. Rain should develop across much of
SLO and SBA counties by this evening, then spreading into Ventura
and Los Angeles counties late tonight into Monday morning.
Some of the rain may be locally heavy across SLO county,
particularly in the higher terrain of northwestern SLO County,
where there will be favorable orographic enhancement of the
rainfall. Have posted wind advisories for the Central Coast,
as well as the mountains of SLO/SBA counties and SLO Interior
Valleys where gusts between 40 and 50 mph are expected Monday
into Monday night. Rain is expected to be lighter south of Pt
Conception, especially across L.A. County as this band of rain
loses its punch as dynamics decrease late tonight and early
Another band of moisture will sag southward into the region from
northern and central CA late Mon or Mon night and linger into
Tue. This will be very similar to what occurs tonight and Mon
morning, with the heaviest rain and best moisture and dynamics
remaining across SLO and SBA Counties, Still, most areas should
have measurable rain Mon night into Tue, but amounts across VTU
and L.A. Counties are expected to be on the light side.
Overall, rainfall totals through Tue are expected to generally
range between 1 and 2 inches across SLO/SBA counties, with some
local amounts between 3 and 4 inches across the foothills of
NW SLO County. Across VTU County, expect one half to three
quarters of an inch of rain, with up to 1.5 inches in the western
mountains. Across L.A. County rainfall totals should generally
range between one quarter and one half inch. Snow levels will be
rather high through at least early Tue, so at this point, just
expect a few inches of snow at resort levels.
A weak system will move through central California on Wednesday,
bringing a chance of rain to the entire region, with best chance
north of Point Conception. Thu and Fri look to be dry, but still
cool. Another storm system may bring rain to the region by late
Sat, and this system could be stronger, and bring more significant
rain to the entire region. However, there continues to be large
discrepancies between the GFS and ECMWF handling this system, so
confidence is low.
At 1800Z at KLAX... there was no marine inversion.
Mostly broken conditions will continue as the area is between
systems. MVFR conditions will continue with some local IFR thrown
in for good measure on the central coast late tonight into Monday
with the approach of the next storm.
KLAX and KBUR...MVFR conditions will predominate for the next 24
hours as another weaker storm system approaches the area from the
west. Light rain will become possible early on Presidents
Day...although a few light showers are even possible today.
Made numerous changes to the forecast: gale warnings gone, small
craft advisories for 650 and 655 are cancelled. Otherwise, gusty
winds in the southern outer waters will subside this afternoon
while south winds increase in the northern waters by this evening.
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 4 PM PST Tuesday for zones
34-35-39>41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM PST Tuesday
for zones 34-35-37-51-52. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zone
670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(WED-SUN)
Light to moderate rain with gusty winds are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday which will create hazardous roadway conditions. More
rain is possible on Saturday and it will likely be windy.