Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 271224
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
525 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO THE
COAST AND SOME VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE WEEKEND. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY
AND WILL INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND COOL THE TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)... THE MARINE LAYER IS 2400 FEET DEEP AND IS
TOPPED BY A DECENT INVERSION. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH MARINE
LAYER STATUS INTO THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. TODAY WILL BE
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS...SLOWER THAN
NORMAL CLEARING (AND SOME BEACHES STAYING CLOUDY LATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON) AND MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

THERE WILL BE A NICE WARM UP INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND RAISES HGTS TO 585 DM. THE ONSHORE
PUSH WILL RELAX ALSO ALLOWING QUICKER AND MORE COMPLETE CLEARING.
THE WEAKER ONSHORE PUSH AND THE HIGHER HGTS WILL COMBINE TO REDUCE
THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE VLYS. TEMPS WILL REALLY JUMP FROM
THE VLYS INLAND WITH PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
90 DEGREE READINGS. THE COASTS WILL WARM SOME BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH
AS THE INLAND AREAS AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL STILL EXERT A STRONG
COOLING INFLUENCE ON THE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... AND RIGHT ON TIME...JUNE GLOOM IS HERE. THE
EXCITEMENT LEVEL QUICKLY WANES. HGTS LOWER SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST. THERE WILL REALLY NOT BE TOO
MUCH CHANGE ON SATURDAY AS HGTS WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH - THERE WILL
MAYBE BE A DEGREE OF COOLING. BY SUNDAY THERE WILL BE MORE MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS AND COOLING ACROSS THE AREA.

A BROAD TROF SWEEPS OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE. THIS WILL LIFT THE
MARINE LAYER DEEP INTO THE VLYS AND WILL KICK OFF A SUBSTANTIAL
COOLING TREND. DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BUT ITS A BIT FAR OUT TO MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1200Z

AT 1210Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2500 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14
DEGREES CELSIUS.

FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. EXPECT SIMILAR CLEARING TODAY OR A COUPLE
HOURS EARLIER. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL PERSIST ALL DAY
ALONG COASTAL AREAS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL BE SHALLOWER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY LOW MVFR AND HIGH IFR.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. SCT CONDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY
AS 20Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
SCT CONDS OCCURING AFTER 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...

27/130 AM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD
BECOME WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

INNER WATERS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE THERE COULD BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON EVENING. MAYBE A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ZONE 650 ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS. THE SAME COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR THE INNER WATERS
BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS STRONGEST.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...SETO

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