Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 251151
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
YESTERDAYS HIGH WIND WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED TO JUST
ADVISORY LEVEL EARLY THIS MORNING. GRADIENTS ARE STILL RUNNING
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 MB OFFSHORE BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BUT UPPER
SUPPORT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ARE GREATLY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING
SO WHILE THERE WILL BE A DECENT BUMP IN WIND SPEEDS AND COVERAGE
AFTER SUNRISE...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING LEVELS. WELL
ALMOST THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW WARNING LEVEL GUSTS OF 60 MPH
ACROSS A FEW REMOTE MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS MAX
TEMPS WILL BE THE BIG DEAL TODAY AS 580 DM HGTS COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF WARMING TO THE AREA TODAY.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY OR 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS RECORDS TODAY COULD FALL IN A FEW
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA
AIRPORT...BUT MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE DAY ARE OUT OF REACH.

BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATES UP FROM THE SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN NOTED WEATHER FORECAST
MLDS ARE RATHER AWFUL AT FORECASTING LOWS ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTH
AND THIS ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. ALL MDLS HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE
FORECAST AND THEIR OWN FORECAST CHANGES FORM RUN TO RUN. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL LOCKED DOWN. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASES
STARTING TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO L.A. COUNTY MONDAY MORNING AFTER DAWN OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THEN THE CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE RAIN IS PRETTY ODD
AS IT MOVES IN MONSOON STYLE (IT IS NOT A MONSOON) FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. AND THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. SORT OF THE OPPOSITE OF
MOST JANUARY RAIN. THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE COAST SO THERE WILL BE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS MAY
VERY WELL LIMIT RAINFALL WEST OF THE MTNS. IN FACT A FEW MDLS SHOW
THE ANTELOPE VLY AS THE WETTEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE WORRISOME AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE OVER 7000 FEET. MAX TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET WITH PERHAPS 15 DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY. TUESDAY TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY IF THE STORM MOVES OUT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN FCST
THERE COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS...MORE LIKELY THE
CLOUDS AND LOWER HGTS WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO MONDAYS
VALUES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
A LITTLE POP UP RIDGE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
CLOUDS INCREASE AS SW FLOW SETS UP OVERHEAD.

A LITTLE POS TILT TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. COOLER STILL.
CLOUDIER AND A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN. REALLY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
THE SSW OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WRAP AROUND NE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY WHILE KEEPING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES GOING OVERHEAD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...25/12Z

AT 0920Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 FT
AND IS 22 DEGREES F AT THE TOP.

OVERALL...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY
UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KVNY WITH A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS AT OTHER LOS ANGELES COUNTY LOCATIONS.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...25/300 AM

SWELLS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS ACROSS THE INNER WATERS OF ZONES 650 AND 655
CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY... IN PARTICULAR FOR THE PORTION OFF
THE COAST OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WAS GENERATING SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEG


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





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