Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 282310 AAA
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
410 PM PDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A high will bring above normal temperatures inland this week. The
monsoonal moisture over the weekend will bring a slight chance
showers and thunderstorms to Ventura and Los Angeles county
mountains and deserts. Then early next week the onshore flow will
increase for more clouds and a cooling trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

Minimal changes to the forecast for the next seven days. Low level
temps are expected to increase Friday as models show a 1-2 mb
offshore trend in surface pressure gradients. This should lead to
1-3 degree warmup in most areas, otherwise tomorrow should look
and feel a lot like today. Solid but shallow marine lyr along the
Central Coast with areas of dense morning fog. Patchy and shallow
in the south.

Models continue to trend slightly cooler through the weekend as
high pressure weakens and gradients weakly trend onshore. Still
4-8 degrees above normal for inland areas Saturday then just 2-4
degrees above normal Sunday.

Still a small chance of convection in the LA/Ventura mtns and AV
over the weekend as air mass becomes a little more unstable. Still
not much moisture to work with so not a big precip threat. Mainly
gusty winds and possibly an isolated dry lightning strike or two.
Of the two days this weekend models currently favoring Saturday
slightly over Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)

Minimal changes through the work week next week as temperature and
gradient trends are pretty flat. Main thing will be the potential
for thunderstorms Monday as today`s GFS was actually a bit wetter
than earlier runs and the ECMWF. I`ve gone ahead and extended the
small weekend pops to Monday for the mtns and AV. After that the
models are in decent agreement showing the moisture boundary
shifting well east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...28/2300Z.

At 23z, the marine layer was around 800 feet deep at KLAX. The
top of the inversion was near 4300 feet with a temperature around
29 degrees celsius.

LIFR to IFR conditions will likely spread into coastal terminals
through 13Z. The highest likelihood on LIFR conditions exists for
coastal terminals north of KOXR. Conditions should improve to VFR
between 15Z and 19Z.

KLAX...Low confidence with return of IFR cigs between 10Z and 16Z.
There is a 30 percent chance that VFR conditions could persist
through entire forecast period.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through period.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 PM.

High confidence exists in the current forecast through Saturday.
A shallow marine layer remains over the coastal waters, which Will
result in widespread dense fog mainly northwest of the Channel
Islands. Weak to locally moderate northwest winds will kick up
each afternoon near the islands and across the Outer Waters, with
gusts of 20 to 25 kts through the early evening Hours. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for this afternoon and evening for
the Southern Outer Waters.

A small but long period southerly swell will develop Saturday
night through Sunday. Not anticipating any issues.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday For
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Seto

weather.gov/losangeles



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