Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 301243
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
420 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...THE DRY SOUTHERN END OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THERE...AND POSSIBLY PUSH INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY.
SOME LOW CLOUDS WERE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP ON NORTHERN SLOPES OF
THE MTNS OF NWRN L.A. COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING.

HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...SINCE GOOD COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE ON SAT.

GOOD NLY GRADS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTY BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR THOSE AREAS.
THOSE CANYON WINDS HELPED SEND THE TEMPERATURE AT KSBA TO 94 DEGREES
AT 530 PM YESTERDAY...AFTER TEMPS SPENT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ACROSS
SRN SBA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE THIS PAST EVENING...WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN. THE DOWNSLOPING NLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY
WILL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY...BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT
MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/1130Z

AT 0812Z AT KLAX THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1200 FEET. THE INVERSION TOP
WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS THROUGH 06Z THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS FOR KLAX...KLGB...KSMX AND KSBP WHEN A RETURN OF IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOCALIZED CANYON WINDS WILL AFFECT KSBA AND VCNTY AFTER 00Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. IFR CIGS COULD ARRIVE AND
TIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

30/330 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...DB

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