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000
FXUS64 KLZK 252316
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
616 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Surface boundary over south Arkansas was slowly lifting northward as
a warm front this afternoon. The boundary will continue moving
slowly northward overnight, and will push into MO during the day
tomorrow.

Most of the rain tonight will be along and north of the frontal
boundary, with the heaviest rainfall expected across the north.

Looking above the surface, there was a broad trof located over the
western US, with several shortwaves rotating thru it. Overall flow
pattern across AR will remain southwesterly. Cyclogenesis on the lee
of the Rockies will spin up a few surface lows over the Plains, and
will eventually bring a cold front into the area during the extended
period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Main feature in the long term will be a storm system in the Plains
dragging a cold front toward Arkansas on Sunday. Ahead of the front,
a warm/unstable environment will be in place, with showers and
thunderstorms becoming likely. Some storms could be severe,
especially in the northwest half of the state. The limiting factor
during the event will be the track of the system, which will be
toward the upper Midwest and well to the north. This will remove
some of the wind energy/lift potential.

Otherwise, widespread heavy rain is in the forecast, with two to
more than three inch amounts possible. Some flash flooding will
likely result if this much precipitation materializes.

Given the track of the system, the front will not make it through
the region, and will become parallel with the upper flow. This will
keep the pattern somewhat unsettled in the days to follow, with
mostly diurnal convection expected. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms should pop up each afternoon, and pretty much
dissipate after dark.

Above average temperatures will be noted through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

MVFR/IFR conditions are likely to prevail across central and
southern terminals through much of the period. Southern terminals
may briefly see VFR conditions tonight before deteoriating
conditions return to the forecast by tomorrow afternoon. SHRA/TSRA
will once again be possible Friday as a cold front makes its way
into the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     56  76  66  81 /  30  40  70  60
Camden AR         64  81  67  84 /  10  20  40  30
Harrison AR       53  71  63  77 /  60  80  60  50
Hot Springs AR    62  77  66  82 /  10  60  60  50
Little Rock   AR  62  80  68  84 /  20  40  60  50
Monticello AR     66  82  68  86 /  10  10  20  20
Mount Ida AR      63  75  65  81 /  20  70  70  60
Mountain Home AR  53  73  64  78 /  50  70  70  60
Newport AR        58  79  67  82 /  30  30  50  50
Pine Bluff AR     63  81  68  84 /  10  20  40  30
Russellville AR   58  76  65  80 /  20  70  70  60
Searcy AR         57  78  66  81 /  20  30  60  50
Stuttgart AR      61  80  68  84 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...73