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000
FXUS64 KLZK 030253
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
853 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY...STEADY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. ALSO...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE WARMER AIR
MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY INTO THE MORNING.
NO PRECIPITATION ON RADAR...SO LOWERED POPS...BUT INCREASING LATE
TONIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. TEMPO GROUP FOR RAIN WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES WITH CONVECTION
BECOMING PREVELANT AFTER THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING MORE WINTER WEATHER ACROSS AR...SHORT TERM CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES...THEN VERY COLD AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH WAS UPDATED TO
ADD GENERAL SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS AND STARTS ON WEDNESDAY.

SKIES WERE CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE RAIN HAD MOVED EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHED
EAST. TEMPS WERE RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPPER
RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND THIS WILL MOVE IN FOR
TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT ONLY
FOR A DAY. TONIGHT TO TUESDAY...DO EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
OVER AR AND KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
AR.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTED WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD. SOME AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS TONIGHT WIL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THEREFORE ONLY RAIN IS FORECAST. MOST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY FORECAST WITH RAIN STARTING...THEN COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND THEN
THE LIQUID PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO WINTER WEATHER. THIS WILL
TAKE PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. LATEST
SOUNDING DATA...CONFERENCE CALL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WITH
COODINATION WITH NCEP WINTER GROUP...HAVE ADD MORE FREEZING PRECIP
ESPECIALLY TO CENTRAL AND MOST IN SOUTHERN AR. THE MAIN AREAS OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. MODELS ARE COMING
TOGETHER AND SHOWING QPF VALUES OF 0.75 TO OVER AN INCH IN A 24
HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING SIGNFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTER
WEATHER. AT THIS TIME...GENERAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN TO NE AR. 1
TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN AR. ICING AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH
NORTH...A TENTH OF TWO CENTRAL...WHILE A FEW TENTHS TO AROUND A
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AR. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO 30S.
A BIT WARMER FRIDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DURING THE EXTENDED TERM THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME HANDLING THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AS A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. DURING THE SHORT TERM THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE BRINGING SNOW TO US WILL SHEAR OFF FROM
A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE REMAINS OF THE SHEARED OFF
TROUGH WILL BE UPSTREAM OF ARKANSAS AND WILL ULTIMATELY BE A KEY
FACTOR IN ANY WEATHER THAT AFFECTS THE AREA.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL WANT TO SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW AND HOLD IT
SOMWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS NWRN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS TRIES TO BRING
IT EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY...TRANSITIONING IT INTO A SHORTWAVE
REACHING THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ECMWF AND CMC
ARE BOTH MORE CONSERVATIVE AT KICKING THE LOW OUT AND BRINGING IT
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME I AM GOING WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE CMC
AND ECMWF AND BRING JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...SO AS THE MODELS START TO HONE IN ON A
SOLUTION THIS MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     34  57  35  36 /  30  70  70  90
CAMDEN AR         36  66  57  57 /  30  50  80  90
HARRISON AR       34  56  26  27 /  30  60  50  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  61  47  47 /  30  60  70  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  62  45  45 /  30  60  80  90
MONTICELLO AR     37  66  58  58 /  30  50  80 100
MOUNT IDA AR      36  60  45  45 /  30  70  70  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33  56  29  30 /  30  60  50  80
NEWPORT AR        34  59  36  37 /  30  70  70  90
PINE BLUFF AR     35  64  53  53 /  30  60  80  90
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  57  40  40 /  30  70  60  90
SEARCY AR         34  60  40  40 /  30  70  80  90
STUTTGART AR      36  61  44  45 /  30  60  80  90
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$

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