Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 221716

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1216 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

KLZK radar data indicate returns across southeast sections are
mostly aloft, per surface observations. Expect MVFR ceilings to
develop between 23/12z and 23/15z across across northwest
sections, associated with a cold frontal passage.



.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 640 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017)

Scattered showers will be mainly confined to the southern two
rows of counties in Arkansas, with more widespread precipitation in
Louisiana. Mainly high and mid clouds will be noted across much of
the region, with VFR conditions expected. Winds today will be east
to northeast at 6 to 12 mph. (46)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
The front that pushed through the region from the Plains on
Sunday has stalled along the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, a big
storm system in the upper Midwest will wobble to the south
the next couple of days. A new cold front will precede
the system, and will arrive in Arkansas on Tuesday. This
will result in an unsettled pattern.

There was already some rain building from northeast Texas
into southern Arkansas early this morning. Precipitation
should stay confined to the southern counties and on into
Louisiana as the day progresses.

Later today and especially tonight/Tuesday, chances for
showers/isolated thunderstorms will increase elsewhere
as the new front approaches.

Precipitation will taper off Tuesday night, with a
return to dry conditions at the end of the near

This will not be a big rain event. Instead, some places
may get quarter to half inch amounts.

As far as temperatures, below average readings are
in the forecast.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
Rain chances will be decreasing Wednesday, as the front moves away
from the region. Cutoff upper low will follow, which will usher
surface high pressure and much cooler air into the region. Airmass
will moderate by the end of the week, as ridging aloft pushes
eastward across the nation`s mid-section, and the surface high moves
southeast, with return flow setting up. For the end of the week and
the weekend, temperatures will be back into the 80s in most areas.
Rain chances will return to the forecast, as surface low pressure
drags a front into the region. The boundary will hit nearly parallel
upper flow, and may slow down or stall out.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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