Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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474
FXUS64 KLZK 302337 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
635 PM CDT JUL 30 2016

.Aviation...

Evening convection will affect KLIT, KPBF and KLLQ and will use VCTS
and Tempo groups at Taf sites. VFR conditions are forecast overall
with MVFR conditions with storms. Have seen heavy rain, gusty winds
to around 25 TO 35 knots with storms and a lot of lightning. The
storms will continue to drift southeast and gradually weaken through
midnight. Overnight, areas of MVFR with isolated showers or
thunderstorms may be seen, with some fog and low clouds forming.
Winds will be light and variable or less than 10 mph from the south.
Sunday will start with patchy MVFR conditions to mainly VFR with
ceilings. Then again isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon to evening. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 222 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday
Scattered convection is ongoing/developing across northern and
western Arkansas this afternoon. Expect this to fill in somewhat and
propagate southward through mostly the western half of the state
through the afternoon and early evening hours. Will carry chance
PoPs into the eastern parts of the forecast area but it appears
western Arkansas will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms
today.

An upper ridge will begin to build back into the region from the
southwest on Sunday. Northwest flow aloft will likely bring one more
MCS into the state during the day tomorrow...so will continue with
chance PoPs for Sunday across the eastern half of the forecast area.
Further west...will hold on to slight chances. The ridge will not be
firmly established by tomorrow afternoon just yet so think some
isolated storms could pop there.

Temperature wise...warm overnight temperatures and highs in the low
90s will be seen.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

There`s not much I can say without sounding like a broken record,
but here goes.

The upper ridge will expand through the week, choking off large-scale
moisture, allowing for only isolated/widely scattered diurnal
convection. Humidity will remain high, with afternoon heat index
values approaching the 100-105 degree range. Fortunately, the
ridge`s influence will start to diminish in the weekend,
bringing a better shot at showers/storms to the area.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No significant fire weather issues are expected through the next
seven days. Minimum humidity will remain high...generally above
the 50th percentile. There will be several chances for isolated to
widely scattered afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms, with the highest chances in the next 48 hours, and
next weekend.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  92  75  95 /  30  40  20  20
Camden AR         75  95  76  96 /  20  30  10  20
Harrison AR       69  89  72  93 /  30  40  20  20
Hot Springs AR    75  94  76  95 /  30  30  10  20
Little Rock   AR  75  94  76  96 /  30  30  20  20
Monticello AR     76  94  76  94 /  20  30  20  30
Mount Ida AR      74  93  75  94 /  30  30  10  20
Mountain Home AR  70  90  73  94 /  30  40  20  20
Newport AR        73  91  74  94 /  20  40  20  30
Pine Bluff AR     74  93  75  94 /  20  40  20  30
Russellville AR   74  94  75  96 /  30  40  20  20
Searcy AR         74  93  74  95 /  30  40  20  30
Stuttgart AR      74  93  76  94 /  20  40  20  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...57 / Long Term...64



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