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000
FXUS64 KLZK 160523 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1223 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SOME TSRA ONGOING ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST SITES INTO THE DAYLIGHT HRS.
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS COULD BE SEEN. THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER DAWN AT CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SRN SITES...BUT FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE. PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. BREEZY NW AND
NORTH WINDS WILL BE SEEN AS WELL...WITH SOME SITES SEEING GUSTS
OVER 30 KTS. RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE NRN SITES FOR SUN
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH...THE
TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HRS...BUT ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014/

UPDATE...

NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING AS FORECAST LOOKS
IN REASONABLY GOOD SHAPE. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BY A
DEGREE HERE AND THERE TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO...POPS WERE
RAISED TO ONE HUNDRED PERCENT AS RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD JUST ABOUT
THE ENTIRE CWA. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT IN TACT.

LOW CENTER VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. QUICK PEEK AT THE NEW MODELS SHOW THE LOW
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...INTENSIFYING AS IT
DOES. NEW NAM SOLUTION KEEPS THE RAIN GOING THROUGH MID MORNING
WHILE OLD GFS/LATEST HRRR DRY SLOTS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
A LITTLE QUICKER. STATUS QUO SEEMS TO BE PRUDENT UNTIL NEW MODEL
DATA ARRIVES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL ALLOW FOR TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO DIVE DEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. 1ST WAVE IS USHERING A BROAD SWATH OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM IN RESPONSE ACROSS TX...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AR...WITH GULF MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SW AR...AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO WESTERN AR.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN...DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TX. THIS DEEPER SYSTEM WILL
INGEST THE FIRST WAVE AS THE AXES BECOME ALIGNED...AND
BROAD...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM ALOFT...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT A DRY SLOT WILL FORM BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LESSEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR.
THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL AR. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE
STATE OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY AND EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
PRECIP COMING TO AN END.

HEAVY RAIN: GIVEN THE TWO MOISTURE SOURCES...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND PACIFIC...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST AR TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONG ASCENT AND TRAINING...THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 WILL BE
NOTED FURTHER SOUTH. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RAINFALL DEFICIT OF
LATE...EXPECT PROBLEMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS: GIVEN THE AMPLE ENERGY WITH THESE WAVES THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE SHOWERS.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MORE ELEVATED ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE
STATE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING SURFACE BASED ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVENING. AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS
AND MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS AND BEST DYNAMICS/WIND
SHEAR WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS IS
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING REDUCING THE
SEVERE THREAT.

WINTER WEATHER: COLD AIR WILL GET WRAPPED INTO THE STORM SYSTEM
ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH. A
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN...TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...TO SNOW WILL OCCUR A
BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BEGIN IN IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3
INCHES. AGAIN THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN/NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. SNOW WILL MIX IN ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS LATER ON
SUNDAY...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

HIGH WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. SUSTAIN WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH WILL HAPPEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A COUPLE OF FRONTS...BUT ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEMS WILL GO
WELL TO THE NORTH WITH NOT MUCH ENERGY TO HELP TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WILL TEND TO BE LIMITED ANYWAY.

THE FIRST FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD GO THROUGH
DRY. THE LATTER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER...SO ADDED SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     24  46  34  65 /  50  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         31  54  38  72 /  30  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       18  47  36  63 /  30  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    29  53  38  69 /  40  10   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  29  52  37  69 /  40  10   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     31  51  37  69 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      28  54  37  69 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  20  46  35  64 /  40  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        25  45  34  65 /  50  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     30  50  37  69 /  40  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   26  53  35  68 /  40  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         27  48  34  66 /  50  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      29  49  37  68 /  50  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...62