Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 291146 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
646 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD COME IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO NRN SITES KHRO AND KBPK...BUT WITH THE SPARSE NATURE
AND WEAK SIGNATURE ON RADAR HAVE LEFT MENTION OF THIS OUT OF TAFS
AT THIS TIME. TEMPO -SHRA WOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT IF IT
WERE TO AFFECT THOSE TERMINALS THOUGH. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN
THE NORTHWEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO -TSRA AT NRN SITES.
ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE IT SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCTS AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT TO SEE IT
DIE DOWN CONSIDERABLY AFTER 04Z OR SO AND HAVE THIS REFLECTED IN
TAFS AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
FLIGHT CATEGORIES VFR...EXCEPT FOR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

NOTE...WILL MAINTAIN AMD NOT SKED AT HOT SPRINGS UNTIL COMPLETE
ASOS OBSERVATIONS RESUME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES RIDGING CENTERED OFF OF THE COASTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND GEORGIA. IN BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES IS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ALL IN
BASIC AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN WILL MORPH INTO ONE FEATURING A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NATION AND UPPER
RIDGING BEGINNING TO REESTABLISH IT SELF OVER THE SOUTH BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WITH MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS MOVE THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING AND WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME POPS. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO LARGELY DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD BUT WILL ILL BACK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE HIGHER POPS ARE NEEDED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS INTRODUCED FROM A
WESTWARD MOVING WAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

ONLY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
MONDAY AND POPS WILL BE PULLED BACK TO JUST ALONG THE MISSOURI
BORDER. BASICALLY A DRY HOLIDAY IS EXPECTED FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION AS THE
PERIOD ENDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO NEAR
NORMAL OR A TOUCH BELOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND LABOR DAY. MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME SLIGHT BUT NOTICEABLE TRENDS IN THE LAST 24
HOURS...NAMELY MOVING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER FORECAST. THE
LATEST RUNS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS WE MOVE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. IT IS NOT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE SO SCORCHING HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT NONETHELESS
DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP TEMPERATURES UP EACH DAY. THE OTHER
CONSEQUENCE OF STRONGER FORECAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO FEND OFF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. DID GO AHEAD AND
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND IMPULES
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER WITH THE CURRENT SET
OF MODEL RUNS THIS MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. BUT MOVING INTO
THURSDAY IT APPEARS A DRY FORECAST IS IN ORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  71  86  70 /  30  60  60  40
CAMDEN AR         93  72  83  71 /  30  50  70  50
HARRISON AR       88  69  87  68 /  50  60  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  72  83  70 /  40  50  60  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  85  71 /  30  50  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     94  73  84  72 /  30  50  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      90  71  83  70 /  40  50  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  88  68 /  40  60  50  30
NEWPORT AR        92  71  83  70 /  20  50  70  50
PINE BLUFF AR     92  72  84  71 /  30  50  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  71  88  69 /  40  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         92  71  85  71 /  30  50  60  50
STUTTGART AR      92  71  85  71 /  20  50  70  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.