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000
FXUS64 KLZK 251956
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
255 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

The calendar says its summer, but spring-like conds are noted acrs
AR this aftn. Sfc ridge was over the area today, providing plenty of
sunshine and low humidity lvls. Mid aftn temps range fm the upper
70s to the mid 80s.

The upr flow wl pattern wl rmn NWLY acrs the region thru much of the
PD. As a result, there wl be several upr lvl impulses that wl drop
SEWD thru the FA durg the short term. Since low lvl moisture wl be
lacking with these features, QPF amounts are expected to rmn light.

The first upr shrtwv was located to our NW, ovr KS this aftn. Mid
and high lvl clouds wl incrs ahead of this feature tngt, with a SLGT
CHC of showers mentioned acrs N AR late tngt into early Mon. The
next upr system is fcst to track SEWD, bringing yet another chance
of SCTD showers/few storms to mainly the NE half of the FA later Mon
night into Tue. Temps are expected to rmn below seasonal norms thru
the PD.
&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night through Sunday

By Wednesday...surface high pressure is expected to push east as the
flow aloft becomes more zonal allowing for persistent lee side
troughing to the west and a return to southerly flow across
Arkansas. The most notable difference this will make is the return
of typical lower 70s dew points across the state as Gulf moisture
surges back in place. With zonal flow aloft and relatively high
humidity in the lower atmosphere...temperatures are expected to
remain around seasonal normals...in the upper 80s to lower 90s for
much of the state. This pattern is expected to continue from
Wednesday through Friday.

With the return of humid summer conditions to the state...a chance
for isolated thunderstorms returns to the forecast each day. Single
cell thunderstorms will be possible during the peak heating hours of
the day each afternoon. The primary threats will be locally strong
winds and cloud to ground lightning. The humidity will help to push
heat index values up into the mid to upper 90s each day.

Next weekend...A strong northern stream shortwave trough will send a
cold front south towards Arkansas Friday afternoon and evening. Most
model guidance indicates that this front will remain north of the
state... however it is likely that a line of showers and
thunderstorms will develop along the front and continue to move
south from southern Missouri into Arkansas late in the day on Friday
or Friday night. Consolidated cold pools may help drive the
effective frontal boundary south into Arkansas for Saturday...where
it will likely stall out and undergo frontolysis without any
reinforcement aloft. With the stationary front expected to become
less baroclinic Saturday and Sunday...think that we will not see
much of a change in airmass across the state. Kept highs near
seasonal normals...kept humidity high...but did increase rain
chances each afternoon into the 30-50 percent range as the weak
forcing for ascent will likely be enough to result in scattered
thunderstorms during the peak heating hours of the day each day.

The front may dissipate on Sunday...but model guidance offers up a
low confidence solution this far out. If the front has dissipated
will need to lower rain chances and increase the high temperature
forecast in later forecasts. The current forecast assumes that there
is some part of the front in place across the state on Sunday.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...44 / Long Term...Cavanaugh