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000
FXUS64 KLZK 210944
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
444 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL
BACK ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUING TO
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED.

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FARTHER SOUTH...AND INCLUDED THE
PINE BLUFF AREA DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL LAST FRIDAY. ONE TO TWO
INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THE TIMING WILL BE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...EXPECT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP...WITH
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES CONDUCIVE TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. WHILE SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS MONDAY ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE CONVECTION TO LEAVE THE AREA...AS THE
UPPER LOW WILL PASS FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE VERY FAR INTO NRN AR FOR
THU...BUT ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE NE...WITH ANOTHER...STRONGER FRONT MOVING SOUTH
TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE STATE BY FRI...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL KEEP POPS
MENTIONED FOR THU AS THE INITIAL FRONT STALLS...THEN MENTION SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRI AS WELL...AS THE SECOND FRONT MOVES INTO
AR. HOWEVER...POPS ON FRI WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS
THE DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO AR FROM THE NE.

OVER THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND
ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING FURTHER EAST AT
THE SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SRLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF AR
BY SUN...BUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
POPS LIMITED INTO MON. HOWEVER...SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON
HRS...ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN MED
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL KEEP SILENT POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW AS UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEBURNE-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PIKE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CONWAY-
FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-
VAN BUREN.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR POLK-SCOTT-YELL.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...62