Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 181723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1123 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

First wave of precipitation continues to exit the state and
conditions have recovered to MVFR for the majority of the area.
However, IFR conditions will return tonight as a warm front moves
into the state and precipitation chances increase again. Winds
will generally be light and from the east to northeast.



IFR conditions will be prevalent through the period, with
conditions deteriorating this evening, as a warm front moves into
the state. Expect periods of rain, with isolated thunderstorms in
the southeast. Winds will be northeasterly/easterly, generally
less than six knots.


SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
If you were lucky enough, hope you enjoyed seeing the sun today,
because, it may be a while before you see it unobstructed again.

Early this morning, a surface front was stalled from central
Mississippi to the Texas gulf coast. Surface low pressure was
forming along the front over deep south Texas. Uplift north of the
boundary, interacting with southwest flow aloft, is allowing
showers to persist over southern Arkansas, and these will increase
in coverage today, as the surface low advances northeastward, and
several more waves move through in the mean flow aloft.

Upper low over the desert southwest will move northeastward and
off the front range of the Rockies later today and tonight, and
this will send the stalled front back to the north a bit.
Elevated instability will increase over the region on Thursday,
and as a result, thunderstorm chances will as well. Coverage of
thunderstorms will be highest in the warm sector, primarily over
central and eastern Arkansas.

Temperatures tonight will level out early, and may rise a few
degrees as the front moves back into Arkansas. Expect areas of
fog to develop late tonight.

LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
An upper low pressure system will be over the Central Plains to
begin the long term period with an upper trough over the western
U.S. The upper low moves into the Great Lakes late Friday and
another upper low develops in the Plains and moves north into the
Dakotas late Saturday. An upper low develops further south near
the Texas Panhandle late Saturday...moving through southern
Arkansas Sunday...and to the Ohio River Valley by Tuesday. An
upper ridge builds over Arkansas Tuesday.

Models are in good agreement that the active pattern will continue.
A warm front will move across Arkansas Friday and a cold front will
move into the state Saturday. This front will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms...with the best chances from Saturday
night into Sunday. The surface low gathers strength over Arkansas
and moves off to the northeast Monday and arrives at the east coast
Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday will be dry. It is a ways out, but will
have to watch Sunday for strong to severe thunderstorms. Normal to
above normal temperatures will continue through the period.

No significant fire weather issues are expected over the next
seven days. Mixing heights will likely remain below 1700 feet
today and Thursday as cloudiness remains under the low level


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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