Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 191801
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1201 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017
High pressure continues over Arkansas today. The fog has
dissipated and ceilings will become higher. Therefore VFR
conditions are expected through the rest of the day. As the high
moves east of the state tonight moisture will increase on the back
side. Low pressure will move across south Texas tonight and a cold
front will move into the Plains. Rain could move into west
Arkansas by late in the period but opted to leave it out of the
western TAFs at this point. Patchy fog and low clouds are expected
Monday morning. MVFR conditions will return late tonight with
some LIFR conditions in the north.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 919 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017
The fog is rapidly decreasing this morning. Allowed the Dense Fog
Advisory to expire. Updated forecast accordingly and added more
cloud cover for the rest of the morning. Western half of the state
is overcast as seen on the fog channel of the satellite images.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 514 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017
Areas of LIFR conditions due to fog should clear by 15z, as
shallow nature of this fog should allow for a quick dissipation.
Scattered MVFR cigs will last until 18z. Best chances for any
TSRA to affect sites will occur after this valid TAF cycle.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 345 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday
Recent observations indicate that areas of fog, some dense, have
developed from the Little Rock metro area, through northeast
portions of the forecast area. Will continue to monitor near term
trends for any possible spatiotemporal adjustments to current
Satellite imagery continues to reveal the progression of an eastward
moving trough, now approaching the southern Rockies. Deep
southerly flow will develop ahead of this system across the mid
south. However, moisture transport is expected to be affected by
convection that develops to the southwest and south of the
forecast area, limiting large scale precipitation efficiency
across the forecast area.
Well above normal afternoon temperatures will continue during this
LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Saturday
As one system aloft moves by to the south, another ripple in the
southern stream will follow by Thursday. As this latter system
approaches, it will feel like spring Wednesday and Thursday, with
well above average temperatures.
At the surface, low pressure will deepen quickly in the
central Plains Thursday, and will be in northern Missouri
early Friday. There should be a lot of wind surrounding
the system, with gusty south/southwest winds locally. Winds
will shift to the west Friday as the system drags a cold
front through the state.
Data is showing limited moisture/capping ahead of the
front, with little in the way of precipitation. If we
get any more instability/less capping, would think there
would be better chances for thunderstorms as the front
goes through. But, for now, have slight chances of thunder
in the eastern counties.
Cooler weather will follow by the beginning of next weekend.
Temperatures will be closer to seasonal.