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000
FXUS64 KLZK 050001
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
601 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR TO BEGIN WITH. CEILINGS LOWERING TO THE MVFR CATEGORY IN THE
04-10Z TIME FRAME...AND GENERALLY TO IFR BY LATE MORNING FRI. -RA
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRI. FZRA AND
PL EXPECTED AT KHRO AND KBPK...BEGINNING FRI MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013/

..MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE FA STARTING THU AND
CONTG THRU FRI. PLEASE REFER TO WINTER WATCH/WARNING PRODUCTS /WSW/
FOR DETAILED INFORMATION REGARDING PRECIP TYPE...TIMING AND
ACCUMULATIONS...

NEAR TERM...TONIGHT

INCRSG SLY WINDS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD AMT OF MIXING THIS AFTN TO ALLOW
LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP. THIS ALSO HELPED PUSH MID AFTN TEMPS INTO
THE 60S AND 70S ACRS THE FA. MEANWHILE...THE MUCH ADVERTISED CDFNT
WAS LOCATED OVER NWRN AR AT MID AFTN. HOWEVER...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
ASSOCD WITH THIS BNDRY STILL LAGGED BEHIND THE ACTUAL WIND SHIFT
FILTERING INTO SWRN MO/NERN OK. THE FNT WL CONT TO SAG SEWD TNGT
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED ACRS SERN AR EARLY THU MRNG.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL CONT TO SLOLY DRIFT SEWD OUT OF SERN AR
BY THU AFTN. MEANWHILE...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES
WL LIFT NEWD ACRS THE REGION ON THU WITH A BAND OF PRECIP BREAKING
OUT ACRS THE FA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE LOW LVL ARCTIC AIRMASS WL
SLOLY ADVECT SWD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
SHALLOW COLDER AIRMASS WL TAKE SOME TIME TO MAKE IT THRU THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BEFORE SPILLING FURTHER SWD LATER THU NGT AND FRI.

THUS...THE CURRENT FCST TREND OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACRS NRN AND
WRN AR THU AFTN AND THU NGT IS ON TRACK. EXPECT TO SEE PRIMARILY A
MIX OF SLEET AND FRZG RAIN ACRS NRN AR WITH UPWARDS OF A 1/4 INCH OF
ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY LATE THU AFTN.

ON FRI...THE ARCTIC AIR WL CONT TO SPREAD SWD THRU CNTRL AND SRN AR.
THIS PRESENTS ONE OF THE FCST CHALLENGES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF
THE TRANSITION FM LIQUID TO FROZEN PRECIP TYPES. AS THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS DEEPENS...NRN AR WL SEE SLEET AND FRZG RAIN MIX WITH AND
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE FRI MRNG WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS LATE IN THE DAY.

ACRS CNTRL AND SRN AR...LOCATIONS ALONG AND S OF THE I-30/I-40
CORRIDOR WL START OFF THE MRNG AOA THE FRZG MARK...THEN GRADUALLY
FALL BLW FRZG OVR ALL BUT FAR SERN AR BY LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN WL
GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FRZG RAIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MODELS CONT TO INDC THE POTENTIAL FOR SIG ICING ACRS THE
OZARKS...OUACHITAS AND INTO NERN AR.

TAKING ALL THIS INTO CONSIDERATION...WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FA TO A WINTER STORM WARNING THU NGT AND
FRI. THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIP WL TAKE PLACE FM N TO S...SO
THE SRN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA WL LIKELY NOT SEE ACCUMULATING
ICE/SLEET UNTIL LATE THU NGT AND HEADING INTO FRI. WHILE SIG ICE
ACCUMULATION WL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...THERE WL BE OCCASIONAL
SLEET MIXED IN AT TIMES. FURTHER S...THE TRANSITION WL NOT OCCUR
UNTIL FRI AFTN AND LINGER INTO FRI EVENING. HELD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES ACRS SERN AR ATTM AS CURRENT FCST AMTS ARE CLOSER TO ADVY
CRITERIA.

PRECIP WL BE TAPERING OFF FM THE W LATER FRI AFTN AND EARLY FRI
EVENING...WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BCMG FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACRS THE
MID SOUTH. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT EXPECTED ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION...
LOW TEMPS BY SAT MRNG WL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
ACRS MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL AR. COMBO OF FRIGID TEMPS AND WINDS WL
PRODUCE SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA SAT MRNG...
WITH SOME SUB ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE OVR N-CNTRL AR.

CLOUDS WL BE IN THE INCRS ONCE AGAIN ON SAT AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYS THE WL BRING A NEW ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA HEADING
INTO SAT NGT. THE EFFECTS OF THIS NEXT STORM WL CONT INTO THE START
OF THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONAL WINTER WX HEADLINES ARE LIKELY WITH
THIS NEXT SYS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...
SOME OF WHICH WILL BE WINTER PRECIPITATION...THEN TRANSITION TO A
DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY...AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS AR...SOME PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING
WINTER...WILL FORM OVER THE STATE. SUNDAY WILL SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW AND SLEET OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET CENTRAL AREAS IN THE MORNING...BECOMING RAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPS GO ABOVE FREEZING...WHILE ALMOST ALL RAIN WIT
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL UPPER
SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST...TAKING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH
IT...AND WHILE ONLY SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEEN IN
EASTERN AR. MOST OF THIS WILL BE WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN
TO CENTRAL...WHILE MAINLY RAIN WITH SPOTTY WINTER WEATHER OVER THE
SOUTH.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE...BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR AS HEAVY AS THE EVENT ON
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY IN THE SHORT TERM.

WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE REST OF MONDAY...EXCEPT SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST...UNTIL IT ALL EXISTS OUT OF
THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVER AR
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     39  48  27  29 /  30 100 100 100
CAMDEN AR         55  66  35  37 /  20  90 100 100
HARRISON AR       30  34  21  22 /  20 100 100  90
HOT SPRINGS AR    43  52  31  33 /  30 100 100 100
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  57  31  33 /  30 100 100 100
MONTICELLO AR     60  65  35  38 /  20  90 100 100
MOUNT IDA AR      38  45  28  32 /  30 100 100 100
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33  38  22  24 /  20 100 100 100
NEWPORT AR        43  53  28  31 /  30 100 100 100
PINE BLUFF AR     51  65  33  36 /  30  90 100 100
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  48  27  30 /  30 100 100 100
SEARCY AR         42  53  29  32 /  30 100 100 100
STUTTGART AR      47  59  32  34 /  30  90 100 100
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-PIKE.

&&

$$


AVIATION...28