Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 022359 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
659 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. STORMS WILL THEN SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THEY HELP PUSH THE FRONT
INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS KLIT...KHOT...AND KPBF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK IT
WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KLLQ SO LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF THE KLLQ TAF. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A LULL IN CONVECTION
AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
ALONG THE DISPLACED FRONT SHOULD BEGIN AGAIN LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CURRENT FORECAST/THINKING HAS NOT ALTERED MUCH VERSUS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ALL MODELS ON GENERALLY THE SAME PAGE
ONCE AGAIN AND A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED.

MCS THAT DEVELOPED IN MISSOURI LAST NIGHT AND BRUSHED THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE LURKING OVER THE NORTHEAST FROM THE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO FORM ONCE AGAIN.

PATTERN THAT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE
SETTING UP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEEN BEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUAD OF THE NATION LATELY HAS BUCKLED SOMEWHAT...AND WILL ALLOW MUCH
MORE POTENT PIECES OF ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAN NOT BE EXCLUDED OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST AND MORE OF A BROAD
BRUSH COVERAGE SEEMS PRUDENT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL PREFERENCES FOR
RAIN TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WHILE OTHER FAVOR BETTER CHANCES
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN KNOCK THEM DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW THE MAV/MEX TRENDS AND
NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
ARKANSAS. IT DOES APPEAR ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WHICH WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. AT THIS POINT...TENDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE DELAYED FROM RUN TO RUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  70  82  69 /  70  70  60  50
CAMDEN AR         92  76  87  73 /  20  50  50  50
HARRISON AR       86  67  80  66 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  74  83  70 /  30  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  74  84  70 /  40  70  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  87  74 /  20  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      89  74  82  69 /  30  70  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  68  80  67 /  60  50  60  40
NEWPORT AR        88  71  83  69 /  70  70  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     92  74  85  71 /  20  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  72  83  69 /  50  70  60  60
SEARCY AR         90  72  83  69 /  50  70  60  60
STUTTGART AR      90  73  84  70 /  30  70  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64





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