Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 310800
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH CRANKED UP QUITE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THE
TRANSITORY SHORT WAVES ALOFT. STRATUS IS COVERING THE SOUTHERN
UMPQUA VALLEY...THE ILLINOIS VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN RIMS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. IT IS ALSO NOW FORMING ALONG THE
NORTH COAST AND IN THE CQQUILLE VALLEY. OTHER THAN THAT...IT IS
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE AREA.  STILL PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM WILDFIRES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST...AND A BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE
MEDFORD CWA THROUGH MONDAY...THEN LOWER A BIT TUESDAY AS SHORT
WAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE FLATTEN IT A BIT. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME ZONAL TUESDAY.

OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CLEAR OUT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE
NORTH COAST. SUNDAY HIGHS INLAND WILL BE AROUND THE SAME AS THE
SATURDAY HIGHS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVERYWHERE BUT THE UMPQUA BASIN...WHERE MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY. AN ONSHORE MARINE PUSH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
UMPQUA BASIN TUESDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND. IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL DEPART THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL LEAVE A WEAK
RESIDUAL TROUGH THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY...THEN NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE...THERE ARE TWO CONCERNS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS FROM THE COAST
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND THICK SMOKE OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY.

A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS AT THE COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO...AND IN THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA VALLEYS. THE MARINE LAYER
IS AROUND 4000 FT DEEP. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z
ON SUNDAY MORNING.

VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IFR IN PLACES NEAR THE LARGE FIRES IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY WITH SMOKE EXTENDING EAST FROM HAPPY CAMP ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STEERING WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY THEN PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT OF VISIBILITY
IN FAR EASTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES AND CONTINUED POOR TO
MODERATE VISIBILITY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1100 PM PDT SAT 30 AUG 2014...WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MOST OF THE INCREASE OCCURRING SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PERSIST AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH WITH WEDNESDAY AS
THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE WEEK. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/08



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