Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 282144
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
244 PM PDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...A seasonal and stable weather pattern continues for
the next 48 hours. Sunny skies with high temperatures about 5
degrees above normal. About the only fluctuation on this them is
the behavior of the marine layer for Oregon west side valleys. It
appears the marine layer will be shallow enough that only the
coast and the Umpqua Basin will experience night time and morning
cloudiness through Friday.

Some instability develops Friday afternoon along the Cascades in
response to a very weak shortwave moving through. The instability
sweeps eastward Friday night to Klamath and Lake counties. This
instability is very minor according to the models so have only
gone with a slight chance for thunder at this time.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Westerly flow through
Tuesday with a series of troughs passing by well to the north of
the forecast area. This will keep temperatures close to normal. It
will certainly prevent any sort of heat wave from developing.
There may be some instability as those troughs pass by well to the
north. Too difficult to pinpoint timing of any sort of chances for
thunderstorms this far in advance.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR ceilings in the Umpqua and
Coquille valleys will contine to erode toward the coast late this
afternoon. Elsewhere, there will be VFR conditions. Stratus is
expected to surge inland again into the Coquille Valley by 04Z this
evening and into the Umpqua Valley after midnight. Otherwise, VFR is
expected away from the coast.
Sandler

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 PM Wednesday, 28 June 2017...
Gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas are likely through
early next week with high pressure offshore and a thermal trough at
the coast expected to be persistent features. Winds and seas will be
highest south of Cape Blanco...especially south of Cape Sebastian
beyond 10 NM from shore. Winds and seas will ease Thursday night
into Saturday then build into early next week with a possibility of
gales beginning Sunday afternoon. The main uncertainty in the
forecast is regarding the extent of improvement Thursday night into
Saturday morning. Seas may remain steep south of Cape Blanco or at
least south of Cape Sebastian through that period.
JBL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ356.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM PDT Thursday
     for PZZ350-370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ376.

$$

KRS/KRS/JBL



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