Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 281042
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
342 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN OREGON
TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST NEXT WEEKEND.
THINGS ARE ON TRACK FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY AROUND
90 TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ONLY ENOUGH MOISTURE NEAR CRATER
LAKE AND THE FREMONT MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY TO
WARRANT ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCE.

THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE CHANGE ON FRIDAY AS BOTH NAM12 AND GFS
BRING IN VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER (AROUND 1 INCH) NORTHWARD
FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY INTO AREA OF THE CASCADES. THIS SHOULD
ADD ENOUGH FUEL TO THE INSTABILITY FACTOR FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE EVEN MORE MOIST
ON SATURDAY AND THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN UNDERNEATH THE CORE OF THE STORMS. WE HAVE PAINTED THE AREA
FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTH INTO JOSEPHINE/JACKSON COUNTIES THE
E-NE INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES AS BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE AREAS HOWEVER MAY BE REFINED LATER TODAY BUT
FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT SW OREGON COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH
THAT EASTERN OREGON ZONES WILL SEE STORMS ON BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.
INTERESTINGLY INSTABILITY IS NOT AS HIGH ACROSS MODOC COUNTY. ONE
POTENTIAL SPOILER IS WHETHER MORE CLOUDS WILL OUTRUN THE
INSTABILITY AND SHIELD US FROM GETTING ENOUGH HEATING.

THE TREND IS STILL FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COMING DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMS NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY COULD BE QUITE WINDY ACROSS THE KLAMATH AND GOOSE LAKE
BASIN WITH MODELS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/06Z...STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND SOUTH
OF GOLD BEACH TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR IS
EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN UMPQUA BASIN TO ABOUT ROSEBURG. ELSEWHERE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT TUESDAY 27 MAY 2015...THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER LAND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALLOWING
WIND SPEEDS TO LOWER AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN, THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR CHOPPY SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL


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