Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 252141
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
541 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Maria is expected to track slowly off the North
Carolina coast through mid week. A cold front will cross the
area late in the week. Please see the latest official forecasts
from the National Hurricane Center and local NWS offices.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 545 PM Mon...Maria will continue to advance NNW overnight
and will be around 150 miles east of Cape Hatteras by 12Z Tue.
Rain chances will increase from east to west overnight, with 50%
Outer Banks to 20% coastal plain. Overnight lows will range from
mid 70s Outer Banks to around 70 coastal plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday/
As of 545 pm Mon...Maria will begin to turn to the northeast
during the day as it begins to be influenced by an upper level
trof moving in from the west. Rain chances will range from 60%
Outer Banks to 30% coastal plain. Removed mention of thunder as
forecast soundings show very marginal instability and SPC does
not have area in any thunder. Highs will be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Very windy conditions along the coast and Outer
Banks with NNE winds 30-40 mph. Gusts as high as 50-55 mph
possible across the Outer Banks and downeast Carteret County.
Winds not as high further inland, averaging 15-25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 PM Monday...The primary forecast concern through
early Thursday will be impacts associated with Hurricane Maria.
Maria will move slowly off the NC coast Tuesday through
Wednesday night before an approaching upper level trough and
attendant cold front finally push Maria to the east sometime
Thursday. Models are coming into better agreement keeping the
center of Maria about 100-150 miles offshore but a large
Tropical Storm wind field that currently extends 230 miles from
the center and very large seas will still bring moderate to high
impacts across portions of Eastern NC, especially the Outer
Banks.

The slow moving nature of this system will prolong and possibly
enhance the impacts that Eastern NC does receive. At this time,
the greatest impacts are expected to be associated with the
large surf impacting the coast and significant beach erosion is
likely with ocean overwash probable in typically prone areas
around times of high tide beginning Tuesday and peaking
at the high tide Wednesday and likely persisting into Thursday.
Highway 12 along the Outer Banks could be greatly impacted and
may become impassable at times, especially along Pea Island.
Coastal flooding along the southern Pamlico Sound is also
possible but the degree of flooding remains dependent upon how
close Maria gets before recurving out to sea. The key driver for
amount of inundation from storm surge will be the duration and
magnitude of the northerly winds across the region. The
soundside of the Outer Banks from Buxton to Ocracoke, and
possibly Downeast Carteret County, look to be the most
vulnerable locations for sound side flooding at this time.

In addition, tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts are
expected across the eastern third of the region with strongest
winds expected across the Outer Banks. At this time, rainfall
amounts look to be around 1-2 inches across the eastern half of
the CWA to less than an inch across the Coastal Plain. We are
not expecting significant impacts from rainfall flooding at this
time but it could be compounded across the Outer Banks by the
impacts associated with storm surge.

Maria is expected to quickly move away from the area Friday
with an upper level trough approaching from the west. Models do
indicate a very low risk for showers, mainly east portion but
not expecting much in the way of coverage and amounts. Much
cooler weather is in store with Highs friday in the upper 70s-
lower 80s cooling down into the mid 70s saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through 18Z Tuesday/...
As of 1045 am Monday...SCU expected to persist through the TAF
period with CIGs remaining mainly MVFR, with some IFR possible
overnight. Scattered showers forecast to spread inland from the
coast tonight with VCSH mentioned at all 4 terminals during the
day Tue. N to NE winds around 10 knots overnight, then 15-25
knots Tuesday.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 315 PM Monday...Hurricane Maria will move slowly N/NE off
the NC coast through early Thursday. Most of the associated
rain is expected to occur east of the TAF sites with only widely
scattered to scattered showers expected Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Main concern is gusty northerly winds 20 to 30 mph
and the potential for a prolonged period of IFR to MVFR ceilings
through Thursday morning. Aviation conditions improve late
Thursday into Friday as Hurricane Maria finally moves well away
from the coast and drier air spreads into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tuesday/...
As of 545 pm Monday...Building seas and increasing winds will
remain the story for the NC waters. Maria will move NNW
overnight, and is forecast to be around 150 miles east of Cape
Hatteras at 12Z Tue. It will begin to move NE during the day Tue
as an upper level trof moves in from the west. Winds will
steadily increase overnight into Tuesday, with tropical storm
force winds across much of the marine area Tuesday. Seas
presently 8-14 feet will build to as high as 16-21 feet in the
central waters Tuesday, with lower values to the north and
south.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 315 PM Monday...Hurricane Maria will slowly lift north
off the coast Tuesday night through Wednesday Night before
accelerating eastward Thursday and Friday. Models continue in
agreement keeping the center of Maria about 100-150 miles
offshore but with a large Tropical Storm wind field and large,
dangerous seas will that will result in rough and hazardous
conditions across the waters with max seas around 20 ft and
boating during this period is not recommended through Thursday.

Conditions are expected to begin to improve late Thursday as
Maria finally moves away from the waters and winds subside to 15
to 25 kt late. Further improvement is forecast Friday and
Saturday with N/NE winds diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas are
forecast to subside below 10 ft late Thursday, and 6 ft late
Friday. Seas Saturday should be 2 to 4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ046-047-081-093>095-103-104.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NCZ098.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ136.
     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ130-131-135-137-150-152-154-156-
     158.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JME/HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME/SK
AVIATION...HSA/JME
MARINE...HSA/JME


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