Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 220526
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
126 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LOW DIVING SE THRU VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE GRAZING NORTHERN FORECAST AREA IN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER COOLING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT SO
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PINWHEEL ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.

CAA BEGINS IN EARNEST BEHIND THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT WHICH HAS
PASSED JUST OFF THE COAST. LOWS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20-22 KTS
AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL HI-BASED
CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING/UPPER COOLING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HASS PASSED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING
NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
WESTERLY WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AROUND
20 KT LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/JME/TL






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