Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 231121
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
721 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON SUNDAY AND LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...INCREASED POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INFLUX OF PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
NW. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW
ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING BACKDOOR FRONT
HAS HELPED TO GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS THIS
MORNING....MAINLY FROM GREENVILLE TO ORIENTAL. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE SE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED CLOUD COVER AND CHC/SCHC
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE SE. ANTICIPATE BETTER COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS WE APPROACH
THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE CHC SHOWERS/SCHC THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION BY
MID- MORNING GIVING WAY TO NELY FLOW. WITH CLOUD COVER AND NE
FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE REGION...ANTICIPATE LINGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
TO BE ROUNDING THE TROUGH AXIS JUST OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF SCHC INLAND/CHC ALONG THE COAST SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
STILL IN PLACE UNDER LIGHT NE FLOW...LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM SAT...SATURDAYS COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES BUILDS SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
FROM NW TO N AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EAST
SHUNTING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES E FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCALED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR SW INLAND ZONES.
SURFACE RIDGE NE OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE BAHAMAS MONDAY TRACKING
NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TUESDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE (15 PERCENT) POPS FOR THE OUTER
WATERS AS SEA-SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. ATTEMPTED TO COMPROMISE AMONG 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH PROVED TO BE VERY TRICKY AS MUCH DEPENDS ON
THE DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...THEN MODERATE
BACK NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND...USERS
SHOULD VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALOFT WILL BRING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO NE FLOW. VCSH
EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WITH VCTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY RIDING ALONG THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ANY SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY PASSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. ANTICIPATE PRECIP
ACTIVITY TO CLEAR LATER IN THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. MVFR FOG/STRATUS MAY BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT
AS CLOUDS DIMINISH...WINDS BRIEFLY DECOUPLE WITH PLENTY OF SOIL
MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER LOW LEVEL NE FLOW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AVIATION FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND REMAIN THE MAIN
FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK...RESULTING IN NE WINDS 5-10 MPH AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NE
AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS 10-15KTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 5-10KTS SOUTH. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS TO THE SW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...ANTICIPATE NELY
FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT CHC SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
SURGE FROM THE NE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 15-20KTS AND 12-16KTS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL HELP BUILD SEAS FROM 2-3FT
DURING THE DAY TO 4-5FT ACROSS THE NORTH AND 3-4FT SOUTH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM SAT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS NE WINDS WILL BE 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 4-6 FT...THOUGH NEARSHORE SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. NE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY DIMINISHES
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUES...AND MAY SEE SEAS FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY TUES AFTERNOON OR TUES NIGHT. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PASSING TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL OFF THE NC COAST. 00Z
WAVEWATCH SUGGESTS SEAS INCREASING 8-12 FT BY THURSDAY...THOUGH
WILL CAP SEAS 6-8 FT FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. USED A BLEND OF
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN A
TAPER BACK VERSION OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG/LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...DAG/LEP






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