Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 221233
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
733 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 715 AM MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY ELONGATED SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST OFF THE SC/NC COAST. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
TODAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER PA/NJ CONTINUES TO NOSE
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS CREATING AN IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING
SETUP. CURRENT PRECIPITATION IS AIDED BY A STRONG VORTMAX CROSSING
THE REGION IN MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. QPF AMOUNTS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RANGE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONTINUED DECREASING TREND IN POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS BEST LIFT
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE LOCATED BELOW 700 MB WITH A STRONG INVERSION WHICH WILL
PRODUCE LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WARMING
REACHES THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES...A MORE INLAND TRACK WOULD
MEAN WARMER TEMPS FARTHER INLAND WHILE A TRACK FARTHER OFF THE
COAST WOULD MEAN COOLER TEMPS INLAND. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF A MET/MAV/ECMWF MOS BLEND WHICH YIELDS MID 40S
INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW THOUGH REMAINING LIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG INVERSION WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
BELOW ROUGHLY 650 MB WHICH WILL YIELD LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT THAT FOG
MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. WILL CAP VISIBILITIES AT 2 SM OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST DENSE FOG MAY BE AN
ISSUE LATE DUE TO MOIST SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT
WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW 40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERHAPS LINGERING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY
CHRISTMAS MORNING AS A RATHER WET SYSTEM IS POISED TO AFFECT MUCH OF
THE EASTERN US DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY IS TRICKY
AS INITIALLY INSITU DAMMING WILL BE OCCURRING WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LATEST MET/MAV
MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WAS INITIALLY
FORECAST SO HAVE RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AS THE MODELS SOMETIMES ERODE THE SURFACE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY.
DEPENDING ON THE EROSION PROCESS WE MAY SEE A NON DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH LOWS OCCURRING EARLY TUESDAY EVENING THEN
READINGS RISING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT. HAVE SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY THE ARRIVAL OF THE STEADIER
RAIN TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. IF ANY INSTABILITY IS REALIZED THIS COULD MEAN
A SMALL CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM WEDNESDAY REACHING INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM
COOLING ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY AND NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AS
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SEA/ADVECTION
FOG ALONG THE COAST AS THE VERY WARM, MOIST AIR TRAVELS OVER THE
COOLER NEAR SHORE SHELF WATERS. THIS WOULD DAMPEN HIGH TEMPERATURES
FURTHER ALONG THE COAST IF IT WOULD TO OCCUR.

MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS EARLY CHRISTMAS (THURSDAY)
MORNING AS MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED IN RECENT MODEL
RUNS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY WE EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST PRODUCING DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. IT WILL STILL BE GUSTY IN A TIGHT
WESTERLY GRADIENT THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND THU NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS WARMING INTO
THE LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT A BIT COOLER NEAR THE BEACHES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SATURDAY BUT
UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL TIMING AND SYSTEM STRENGTH
CONTINUE WHICH WILL LIMIT LONG RANGE FORECAST DETAILS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MONDAY...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO
STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING SETTING UP ACROSS EASTERN NC ALONG WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE TAF SITES. GUIDANCE IS
VERY PESSIMISTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LOWERED CEILINGS AT
IFR LEVELS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT ALLOWING SATURATED LOWER LEVELS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
TO CREATE FOG. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WOULD ARGUE AGAINST FOG BUT
IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH...FOG COULD DEVELOP AT IFR/LIFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
DUE TO INSITU DAMMING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED TO THE
NORTH MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE INTERVALS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN
NEAR SATURATION SO ANY IMPROVEMENT IN FLYING CONDITIONS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED, ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE
GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO WEST AND GUSTY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE PRODUCING PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS RETURNS TO THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT OFFSHORE
BUOY 41036 OUTER ONSLOW BAY...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT AT DIAMOND
SHOALS. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF SC/NC COAST WILL SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN TODAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW CROSSES THROUGH
EASTERN NC...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A SMALL CHANGE IN THE
TRACK OF THE LOW COULD MEAN BIG ERRORS IN WINDS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY THEN SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT. HOISTED SCAS FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS 6
FT SEAS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED THERE AND WILL BE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NORTHERLY TONIGHT...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
ALBEMARLE/PAMLICO SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE EASTERN US. LIGHTER WINDS
AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING
TO 20 TO 25 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
BECOMING WESTERLY 20 TO 25 KT LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. SEAS RESPOND BY BUILDING AND PEAKING AT 8-12 FT
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS SEAS FCST PER SWAN AS WAVEWATCH
SEEMS UNDERDONE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT LOW END GALES
IN GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG



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