Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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534
FXUS62 KMHX 202105
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
405 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from the north into Tuesday.
The high will slide offshore Wednesday through Friday. A cold
front will move in from the west Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM Monday...Fair and cool conditions again tonight but
temps still about 5 degrees above normal. Surface ridge axis
will extend over area from north while upper ridge gradually
moves in from west overnight. Some high clouds are already
spilling over top of upper ridge but mainly thin until
overnight. Continued previous forecast thinking with min temp
forecast at or just below coolest guidance as decent radiational
cooling conditions will allow readings to drop to upper 30s to
mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 330 Pm Monday...upper ridge will crest over area in the
morning and surface high center will begin to shift more NE of
area, resulting in some weak coastal troughing in afternoon. NAM
is most aggressive with this feature indicating some spotty
light showers moving in along coast by evening but appears to be
overdone given current dry conditions extending over offshore
waters. Will indicate some increasing clouds with thickening
high clouds during day and some SCU moving onshore during
afternoon but no POPs at this time. Low level thicknesses 15-20
meters lower combined with additional cloud cover supports max
temps mainly mid to upper 60s with 55-60 Outer Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 pm Mon...Much above temps will be the rule through the
first half of the weekend with upper flow keeping any cold air
confined far to the north. Surface ridge off the east coast will
slowly move east through the end of the week. A surface low will
cross Florida Thursday, then lift northeast Friday and
Saturday. Both GFS and ECMWF show rich boundary layer moisture
Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the same time, weak vort
energy in the mid-levels will pass through, but near-surface
dynamics weak. Have kept in a slight chance of showers, but
confidence is low on seeing any measurable precip. Moisture
thins out, with dry and very warm conditions Thursday and
Friday with highs in the mid to upper 70s most inland locations.
A cold front approaches and moves through Saturday. Warm
southwest flow ahead of it will push highs again into the mid
and upper 70s. Models show much of the available moisture
lifting out to the north during the day, so have put in only
slight chance PoPs. Northwest flow behind the front will bring
in cooler temps Sunday, with highs in the upper 50s to lower
60s. The flow quickly backs to southwest Monday with highs in
the mid to upper 60s most areas inland from the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tuesday Afternoon/...
As of 1200 PM Monday...VFR conditions are expected through the
short term. Skies will be mostly clear with light winds shifting
from N to NE this evening. Even with light NE flow, no stratus
is expected, as the mid levels remain dry with high pressure
passing overhead Tuesday morning. Clear skies and light winds
continue for Tuesday.

Long Term /Tue night through Sat/
As of 230 pm Mon...Mostly VFR through the period. MVFR possible
in light showers Wednesday afternoon and evening. Surface winds
will be from the south around 5 knots Wednesday and Thursday,
southeast around 10 knots Friday and southwest 10-20 knots
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short term/through Tuesday/
As of 330 PM Monday...latest guidance in good agreement that
tightened pressure gradient will persist tonight, then gradually
weaken Tuesday with some coastal troughing possible in
afternoon. This will keep keep NE winds 15-20 KT most of waters
tonight, diminishing to 5-15 KT Tuesday with some veering to
more easterly direction for southern and central waters.

Seas will peak at 3-5 feet tonight then subside to 2-4 feet
Tuesday.

Long Term /Tue night through Sat/
As of 230 pm Mon...Light winds and seas forecast through
Thursday night. High pressure off the east coast Wednesday will
slowly move east. Low pressure will pass far to the south and
east of the coast Friday and Saturday. Winds will average 5-10
knots and seas 2-4 feet. Southwest winds will increase Friday
into Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west. Seas
will build to 4-6 feet, with winds increasing to 15-20 knots
south of Oregon Inlet and 10-15 knots north.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/SGK
MARINE...JBM/HSA



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