Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 221921
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
221 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sag south into northern portions of eastern
North Carolina late tonight and early Friday then lift back
north Friday afternoon. High pressure will continue offshore
over the weekend with continued very warm temperatures. A cold
front will move through the area Sunday night into early Monday,
followed by high pressure Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...Sct Cu inland will diminish toward
evening with loss of heating. Mostly clr skies thru the evening
will give way to increasing clouds late in combo of developing
stratus and clouds behind a backdoor cold front that will sag S
thru nrn tier. Deeper moisture looks to remain N of region so
will cont with no pops in fcst. With low lvls remaining
saturated good bet for fog to form again tonight...always tricky
to determine how widespread the fog will be...there is the
potential for some dense fog. Overnight lows will be slightly
cooler than the past 2 nights mainly cpl dgrs either side of 55.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...The backdoor front is fcst to bisect
the region early with it weakening and lifting back N later in
the day. Clouds/fog in morn shld grad diminish into the aftn.
Temps over srn tier will be similar to today around 80...bit
cooler nrn tier with front in area with highs in the 60s nrn
cst.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...Strong high pressure at the surface and
aloft offshore will continue to provide a warm southwest flow
into the region into the weekend. An approaching cold front
coupled with deep moisture will lead to an increased rain threat
Sunday into Monday before another cold front brings a return to
dry weather Tuesday.

Friday Night and Saturday...Near-record high temperatures
expected given southwest flow and unusually high 500 mb heights
over the region. High temperatures will be well into the 70s
with a few spots reaching the lower 80s  Saturday. GFS/ECMWF
show the development of a few showers Saturday given an increase
in precipitable water ahead of next front.

Sunday through Monday night...Deeper moisture will be drawn
north into the eastern Carolinas ahead of cold front as ridge to
the east weakens and moves east. Continued high chance PoPs
Sunday night and especially Monday when deepest moisture and
best lift is in place. Continued very warm Sunday in warm sector
ahead of front with highs well into the 70s, but as front moves
offshore later Sunday night, highs on Monday will range mostly
in the upper 50s to lower 60s with more widespread precipitation
expected.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry high pressure will build across the
region with cooler temperatures, but still above normal under
mostly clear skies. Highs will generally be in the 60s with lows
in the 40s, still about 10 degrees above normal for this time of
year.

Wednesday Night and Thursday...An increase in deep moisture
ahead of low pressure crossing the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
will lead to another round of showers Wednesday night into
Thursday. Have high chance PoPs in the forecast. Temperatures
will remain mild, despite the precipitation however.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through Fri/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...Mainly VFR thru this evening with sct
to bkn Cu this aftn that shld dissipate late today. Tonight
grdnt will relax as weak backdoor cold front sags S into the
region late. Very moist low lvls will cont with areas of fog
and low stratus developing again with IFR expected most sites
poss dropping to LIFR at times. The weak front will slowly lift
back N Fri. Appears srn tier will quickly see fog/st dissipate
with VFR by mid/late morn. Nrn tier may hold onto lower clouds
and vsbys til late morn or early aftn with VFR all areas later
in aftn.

Long Term /Friday Night through Monday/...
As of 325 AM Thursday...VFR conditions will prevail Friday night and
Saturday as high pressure continues to circulate warm air into
the region on S/SW winds. Some periods of sub-VFR conditions,
likely MVFR, are expected Sunday into Monday as an approaching
frontal system will bring more numerous showers, especially
behind the cold front on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...SSW winds 5 to 15 kts thru the evening
with 3 to 4 foot seas in long period swell. Late tonight a weak
cold front will cross nrn tier with winds become N to NE mainly
from about Hatteras N with light WSW winds S of the front. Once
again will likely see fog develop and will have to monitor
trends overnight for poss dense fog advisory. The front will
grad weaken and lift N Fri with winds becoming SSW below 15 kts
all waters later in the day with fog diminishing. Cont longer
period swells will keep seas mainly in the 3 to 4 foot range
Fri.

Long Term /Friday night through Monday/...
As of 325 AM Thursday...Not alot of change in the latest marine
forecast. S/SW winds will cont Friday night and Saturday.
Expect 10-15 knot winds for this period with seas of 2-4 feet.
Small Craft Advisory conditions still look like a given on
Sunday ahead of the cold front with gusty SW winds of 20-25
knots and seas building to as high as 6-7 feet, south of Oregon
Inlet. Winds subside again Monday behind the front as winds
become northerly.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temps could approach and/or break records today.

Record High Temps 2/22 (Thursday)

LOCATION           TEMP/YEAR
Cape Hatteras      76/1971  (KHSE)
Greenville         80/2003  (COOP)
Jacksonville       77/2003  (KNCA)
Kinston            78/2003  (COOP)
Morehead City      72/1971  (COOP)
New Bern           80/1980  (KEWN)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/CTC
CLIMATE...MHX



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