Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 192000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

A weak cool front will move through the region Friday. A strong
area of low pressure and frontal system will impact the area
Sunday through Monday. High pressure will then build into the
area from the south through mid week. A cold front will move
through late next week.


As of 3 PM Thu...Cloudiness will steadily increase from the
west tonight as surface low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley
and some mid- level shortwave energy approaches eastern NC from
the southwest. Forecast soundings continue to indicate lower
levels not moistening up until after sunrise and any precip
should hold off until after 12z on Friday morning and will
continue the dry fcst. Lows tonight in the low/mid 40s may
occur early before leveling off or perhaps rising a bit as the
clouds thicken late tonight.


As of 3 PM Thu...

Friday...19/12Z global model suite and high res models continue
to indicate very light and sct showers at best on Friday. Have
therefore decreased pops further to low chc sct with iso mention
cyrstal coast as dry low levels will limit coverage of precip.
It appears only several hundredths to a tenth of an inch at best
will fall on Friday as the system is very quick moving and
should be exiting by late in the day. Warmer temps expected per
low lvl thicknesses approaching 1370M with mid/upr 60s most
areas with low 60s OBX.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy skies and light to calm winds
behind exiting weak front and shortwave. Warm and humid night
expected with lows in the 50s. TD`s will also be high, and these
conditions will lead to a decent threat of fog across the
mainland zones, especially areas that received any rainfall.
Will therefore introduce patchy fg to grids, possibly becoming
dense. Will let later shifts further evaluate dense fog

Saturday...Any fg will burn off after sunrise Sat. Inherited
increasing pop trend still looks on target with approaching
deep shortwave energy and increasing deep SW flow. Best chances
for rain showers will be the southeastern half of the FA. Have
added slgt chc thunder to grids in the afternoon as some weak
instability is advected into E NC.


As of 230 AM Thursday... We will begin a rather unsettled
period Saturday afternoon into early next week. A upper level
trof over the desert southwest Saturday will progress into a cut
off low that will move through the Deep South Sunday into
Monday. Ahead of this low a deep feed of moisture out of the
Gulf of Mexico will produce two rounds of rain for us first
Saturday afternoon/Saturday evening, then again Sunday. Finally
the cut off low mentioned above moves through Sunday night into
Monday with one final round of steadier rain before we taper off
to showers through early Tuesday as the low moves east. GEFS
PWATS approach 2 standard deviations above normal as early as
Saturday afternoon and continue near that number through Sunday
evening. Other signals that point to periods of heavy rain
include a strong low level jet, tall skinny cape, and warm cloud
depths above 10,000 feet. Luckily it appears the heaviest
periods of rain will come in waves, with drying in the mid
levels in between which will help to give us lulls in activity.
We continue to mention thunder through the period with lifted
indices still negative and a few hundred j/kg of CAPE. We have a
dynamic wind profile with winds veering with height, so the
amount of instability will have to be watched with regards to
the potential for stronger storms.

An early shower is possible Tuesday otherwise high pressure controls
our weather again providing us with a dry stretch of weather through
Thursday.  Our next shot at rain holds off until the end of next


Short Term /through 18z Fri/...
As of 2 PM Thursday, VFR expected through the TAF period. As
moisture increases ahead of next system, expect high clouds to
thicken and lower after midnight with some low end VFR stratus
developing by around sunrise Friday. There could be brief
periods of MVFR stratus during the day Friday though not enough
confidence to indicate in the TAF`s right now. Sct to isolated
showers on Friday will be few and far between and will leave
mention of even a VCSH out of the forecast at this time.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 250 AM Thursday...Patchy dense fog is possible Friday
night into early Saturday morning. The main aviation concern
would be from Saturday afternoon through early Monday with at
least widespread MVFR restrictions likely in rain, with local
IFR possible. In addition strong winds off the surface with a
quick change in wind direction may produce LLWS or at the very
least, bumpy flying conditions during the period.


Short Term /Through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Seas currently 3 to 5 ft northern waters
with 2 to 4 ft south. Ocnl 6 feet at times outer central waters
will subside this afternoon. As axis of surface high pressure
settles over the coast tonight, winds become light at generally
10 knots or less from the NE or E. Per latest local SWAN/NWPS
model, seas will be in the 2-3 feet range tonight into Friday.
Winds will veer further and become southerly Friday afternoon
ahead of quick moving weak cold front that will pass through by
early Friday evening.

Long Term /Friday Night through Monday/...
As of 255 AM Thursday...Southeast winds Friday veer into the
northwest Saturday.  Waves generally 2 to 5 feet through the period.
A strong area of low pressure will approach the waters by late
Sunday night.  Southwest to south winds will increase to above 20
knots by Sunday and continue through Monday.  Waves of 10 feet or
more are possible.  Small craft advisories will likely be needed
starting Sunday afternoon and lasting through Monday.




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