Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 261954
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
354 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move across to the north late Saturday
through Monday, with a cold front pushing through the area
Tuesday. The front will stall south of the area Wednesday and
return north Thursday. Another cold front will approach Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Friday...Other than some patchy cumulus, skies will
be mostly clear overnight with comfortable temperatures. Lows
will be in the mid 60s inland and lower 70s closer to the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...The bulk of Saturday will be mostly sunny
and dry until mid-level ridge starts to break down late in the
day. Some decent mid-level shortwave energy and an approaching
boundary from the north will kick off scattered showers and
thunderstorms to our north, near the VA border, but think these
will stay north of our CWA through 00Z Sunday. Saturday will be
quite warm in SW flow with thickness and MOS guidance supporting
highs in the lower 90s inland and low/mid 80s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Unsettled weather through most of the
period due to frontal boundaries. Low confidence with the
timing of precip as most of the convection coverage will be
possible each day, except for Wednesday. A front will stall
south of area Wednesday but then lift back north Thursday,
meanwhile another cold front is expected to approach the area
Friday...leading to more rain.

Saturday night...A low pressure system with its associated cold
front will move towards VA. This weak low will be near the
VA/NC border while the cold front moves across the area and
stalls Sunday. Meanwhile a shortwave energy is expected to cross
E NC Saturday night. Models continue to show scattered coverage
is still possible for mainly the northern sections. SPC
continues with a Marginal threat for northern sections as the
0-6 km shear is indicate 35-40 kts which is supportive for a
strong to severe storms. Expect high is the upper 80s to around
90 degrees inland with low/mid 80s along the beaches.

Sunday through Tuesday night...Periods of short wave energy
will result in areas of low pressure moving across north of area
Sunday-Monday night with frontal boundary pushing through late
Monday night/Tuesday morning with another weak boundary crossing
late Tuesday. Convective activity will be most likely during
typical afternoon/evening hours but may persist overnight with
continuing short wave activity, thus will continue chance POPs
through the night during period. Models are indicating 35-40 kt
of 0-6 KM shear Sunday and even stronger on Monday. Isolated
severe will be possible rest of period as well. Highs will be in
the upper 80s inland to low 80s Sunday and Monday highs
reaching near 90 inland. Tuesday, temps will be a few degree
cooler after the cold front passage. Lows around 70 Sunday night
and Monday night, then 65-70 Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Weak ridging will build
across the area, meanwhile a frontal boundary remains stalled
offshore. Most of the area will be rain-free, but models are
indicating some weak short wave energy moving across the weak
ridge...mainly over our coastal waters. expect highs in the mid
80s inland and upper 70s/low 80s along the coast.

Thursday through Friday...Stationary front will lift north as a
warm front and increasing the chances for more scattered
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Another cold front will
approach the area from the NW with more rain chances on Friday.
Expect highs in the mid 80s inland and mid/upper 70s Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Saturday/
As of 105 PM Friday...High confidence in VFR conditions through
this TAF cycle with high pressure in controls and sunny skies
today except for a few patchy cumulus in the heat of the day.
The temp/dewpoint spread and light mixing should preclude fog
formation tonight. Gusty W/WNW winds should subside later this
evening.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/
As of 345 pm Friday...Sub-VFR conditions are possible starting
Saturday night through Tuesday as weak frontal boundary affects
the area with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Saturday/
As of 230 PM Friday...As the influence of low pressure moving
off New England diminishes and high pressure moving east from
the western Virginias builds east and southeast, winds are
gradually subsiding on the coastal waters and Sounds. Backswell
energy keeping Diamond Buoy around 8 feet, but this should
subside later this evening and have SCA ending for the Oregon
Inlet to Ocracoke leg at 11 pm this evening. SW/W winds at 15
knots or less are expected on Saturday with seas 2-4 feet.

Long Term /Saturday night through Tuesday/
As of 345 pm Friday...Generally winds will be SW 15-20 knots on
Saturday night, then becoming briefly W/NW 10-15 kts Sunday
morning, before winds return back to SW 10-15 knots. SW wind
will continue through Tuesday 10-15 knots with some weak
frontal intrusions resulting in shifting winds over northern
waters Sunday night into Tuesday, with front pushing through all
waters Tuesday morning.

Seas will build to 3-5 feet Saturday night, then mainly 2-4 feet
rest of period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM



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