Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 310149
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
949 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression 8 will remain off the NC coast through this
evening and move away on Wednesday. Another tropical system will
lift northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico and will impact the
area late in the work week. High pressure will build in this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 945 PM Tue...Tropical Depression 8 continues to move slowly
and steadily away from the NC coast this evening and is no longer
expected to have significant impacts beyond the marine realm. With
the cancellation of the Warnings will decrease PoPs especially
coast where chance will replace likely based on trends in the
radar. Some fog/low stratus clouds are possible for interior
sections as winds will be light to calm and skies partly cloudy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4 PM Tue...TD 8 will be moving away to the northeast on
Wednesday. May see some lingering showers on the OBX in the A.M.,
otherwise mainly dry conditions through early afternoon. Sea
breeze develops by afternoon as differential heating occurs and
will see some sct/iso showers/storms develop with afternoon
heating. High temps expected in the upper 80s/near 90 interior to
mid/upr 80s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM Tuesday...Tropical Depression 8 will be moving well
away from the area Wednesday night while a cold front slowly
approaches the area from the northwest. The front is progged to
move offshore Friday morning with TD 9, which is forecast to be a
tropical storm by this time, lifts northeast along the front
Friday or early Saturday. High pressure builds into the region
early next week.

Wednesday night through Thursday Night, A digging mid level trough
across the Mid-Atlantic and approaching cold front will push
Tropical Depression 8 well away from the region Wednesday night.
Several models develop a weak area of low pressure along the
coastal trough near the coast and lift it offshore early Thursday
morning and will keep chance PoPs along coastal sections
overnight. Improving upper level dynamics combined with frontal
forcing will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the region Thursday and Thursday night and have high chance
PoPs. Shear and instability parameters appear meager and expect
the severe threat to be minimal. Warm and humid temps continue
ahead of the front and expect highs around 85-90.

Friday through Saturday, Significant uncertainty this period as
Tropical Depression 9 is progged to lift northeast out of the Gulf
of Mexico along the frontal boundary off the NC coast as a
tropical storm. 12Z guidance has trended taking this system much
closer to the NC coast which will increase the impacts across the
region however there is still a lot of uncertainty in the timing,
track and strength of this system so it is still too early to know
what the impacts from wind, storm surge and rainfall may be. With
a leftward shift in the track, have increased winds and precip
chances this period but if a track closer the coast persists these
will have to be increased further, perhaps significantly. Either
way expect increased surf with a high rip current risk to continue
along the beaches.

Sunday through Tuesday, strong high pressure will build south
from New England into the Carolinas with a period of pleasant
weather likely for the weekend into early next week. Temperatures
should be slightly below normal with highs in the lower 80s and
lows mainly in the 60s inland to low to mid 70s coast. Dewpoints
will be in the comfortable 60s for much of the area through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 640 PM Tuesday...Current VFR conditions expected to persist
through this evening outside of isolated showers. Main concern is
potential for fog and stratus clouds late tonight. Dewpoints
actually were rising during peak heating this afternoon meaning
that forecast lows will drop 2-3 degrees below the crossover
temperatures. However, the BUFKIT MRi turbulence index indicated
only partially decoupling and thus was favoring stratus over fog.
Further complicating the forecast was the forecasts from the
HRRR/NARRE/SREF which were not indicating a high potential for sub
VFR conditions. Expecting VFR conditions Wednesday outside widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly after 18Z.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...periods of MVFR ceilings possible in
scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday
as Tropical Depression 8 moves away from the area and a cold
front approaches from the northwest. Drier air will filter in
behind the front Friday into Saturday as dewpoints drop into the
60s and VFR conditions should prevail. Forecast confidence low
beyond Thursday night as latest models trending toward lingering
threat of precip Fri-Sat with TD 9 possibly moving closer to
coast. Official NHC forecast indicates system will remain well
south of area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Wednesday/...
As of 945 PM Tue...Small Craft Advisories for seas will replace
the Tropical Storm warnings as TD#8 continues to move slowly
offshore and away from the NC coast overnight. NE winds 10 to 20
KT and Seas 4 to 6 FT still being observed at the coastal buoys
and will take until Wednesday morning for seas to subside below 6
FT and winds to diminish to 10 to 15 KT. Wednesday winds will be
15 KT or less and become southerly in the afternoon.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...TD 8 will be quickly moving well away from
the area Wednesday night with a cold front to the northwest slowly
moving toward the area. Variable winds mainly below 15 KT expected
Wednesday night and Thursday as a weak area of low pressure lifts
NE along a trough of low pressure just offshore with seas around
3-5 FT. SW winds increase to around 10-20 KT late Thursday as the
front moves approaches the region, then shifts to north behind the
front with seas building to around 4-6 FT. Latest models have the
front to around the southern waters at 12Z Friday.

A lot of uncertainty in the details of the forecast continue
Friday through the weekend as TD 9 is progged to lift NE along the
offshore frontal boundary as a Tropical Storm this period. 12Z
models have the track of this system closer to the NC coast but
continue to offer different timing and strength of the system.
Have increased winds and seas from the previous forecast Friday
and beyond but if models continue to keep the system close to the
coast even higher winds and seas will be likely. Mariners are
urged to monitor the forecast closely trough the week as
conditions could be significantly worse than currently forecasted.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CTC/SK
AVIATION...JME/JBM
MARINE...JME/SK/TL



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