Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 280445
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
IT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. CONVECTION REMAIN WELL TO THE W AND NW OF ERN NC. CANT
RULE OUT SOME POSS DEVELOPMENT LATER ALONG ANY OUTFLOW WITH DECENT
INSTAB CONT HOWEVER CHCS SEEM SMALL SO LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHC...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LIKELY INLAND. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW
FLOW AND HIGH DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS STILL DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK ACCORDING TO
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -9...CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3300 J/KG AND SWEAT VALUES ABOVE 300 JUST TO NAME A FEW. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCLUDED ENHANCED
WORDING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE SLIGHT RISK...WHICH IS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER. SEVERE THREAT WILL
END IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET LINE WHERE
RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. WILL
RETAIN POPS RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85 MB
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

NEXT WEEKEND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH
RETROGRADING WEST AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG
THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR
PGV/ISO AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT WEAKENING. DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD
LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN AFTN
AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ.
WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...SW WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS CNTRL/SRN WTRS. SEAS SLOW TO BUILD BUT GIVEN
INCREASING TREND IN WINDS WILL CONT MARGINAL SCA S OF HAT INTO MON
MORN.

PREV DISC...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 KNOTS
BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST DATA
IT LOOKS LIKE SCA SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO WILL DROP SCA FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF HATTERAS
AND ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL SO
MARINERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS INVERTED
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/RF/CQD
MARINE...JAC/RF/HSA/CQD






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