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000
FXUS62 KMHX 260708
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
308 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually build into the Carolinas from the
northeast today, and will remain in control while sliding
offshore this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 300 AM Fri...High pressure will continue build over
eastern NC from the north through tonight. Gusty northeast winds
will begin to gradually subside this afternoon and evening as
the gradient begins to slacken. An expansive area of low stratus
clouds continue to overspread eastern NC from the east early
this morning and will cover much of the area through late
morning then dissipate due to heating. Skies will become partly
to mostly sunny this afternoon with pleasant high temps in the
upper 60s to lower 70s inland, with cooler low to mid 60s along
the Outer Banks and immediate coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Fri...Quiet weather tonight as high pressure
continues over the area. The high will produce clear skies and
light winds. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland
and mid 50s immediate coast and Outer Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures Tuesday-Thursday

- Thunderstorm risk may return mid to late-week

FORECAST DETAILS

The most prominent feature in the long-term period will be an
amplified upper level ridge forecast to develop over the Eastern
U.S. this weekend and into early next week. Beneath the ridge,
warm/above normal low-level thicknesses are forecast to develop.
There may be some mid-level cloudiness around over the weekend,
but by early next week, the combination of mostly sunny skies,
warm thicknesses, a reduced risk of precipitation, and
persistent southwesterly flow should support a period of well
above normal temperatures focused in the Tuesday-Thursday
timeframe. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance support
this, and with this forecast update, I`ve bumped temps up
towards the 75th percentile of guidance. Inland, this suggests
highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Along the coast, this
suggests mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees. With persistent
southerly flow, dewpoints are forecast to steadily increase
early next week as well, which may allow heat indices to reach
the 90s. While not headline-worthy, it`s still noteworthy as
this would increase the risk of heat exhaustion for those with
prolonged exposure.

From mid to late-week, model guidance begins to differ, but the
general theme is for the ridge to breakdown. While not
immediate, the lack of ridging could eventually open the door to
an increase in the risk of convection, if for no other reason
than the daily seabreeze. Several shortwaves are forecast to
pass over, or near, the Carolinas late in the week, which would
also support an increase in the risk of convection. Of note,
CIPS and CSU severe weather guidance are showing a modest signal
for severe weather potential late-week, although deterministic
guidance show less of a signal. Despite the differences, it`s
something to watch as we move into next week. Forecast-wise,
we`ll show a low-end risk of thunderstorms Thursday into Friday
(10-30% chance). While still warm, temperatures late in the week
should lower some compared to early in the week, especially
with the potential for thunderstorms and more cloudiness around
at times.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 300 AM Friday...Widespread low stratus clouds will
produce prevailing IFR conditions in ceilings through late
morning (around 14Z), followed by a brief period of MVFR
ceilings until about noon, then VFR conditions are expected this
afternoon and tonight as high pressure builds over the area.
Winds will generally be NE to E around 5-10 kt with gusts around
15 kt inland while coastal sections will see 10-20 kt with
gusts 25 kt into this afternoon. Not seeing any signals in the
guidance pointing to fog overnight.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

The expected synoptic weather pattern carries a high probability of
VFR conditions into early next week, with little to no aviation
impacts.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 300 AM Friday...SCA`s will continue into tonight due
northerly surge and elevated seas that developed on Thu and
which will continue this morning, The strongest winds, 15-25 kt
will persists until around 12Z this morning then gradually
diminish to 15-20 kt this afternoon and 10-15 tonight. Elevated
4-7 ft seas this morning will be slow to subside below 6 ft. The
southern waters will subside to 3-5 ft late today with the
northern waters forecast to subside early Sat morning, and the
central waters Sat afternoon.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated seas linger into early this weekend

- Good boating conditions expected late-weekend into early next
  week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure overhead this weekend will shift offshore early
next week, with inland troughing developing in the lee of the
Appalachians. Winds will be very light over the weekend, then
will steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow
of 10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early
next week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.
The one exception is early this weekend as seas will remain
elevated within the northeasterly background swell that has been
impacting the area for the past few days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ135-
     156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG/RM
AVIATION...RM/JME
MARINE...RM/JME