Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 311000
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
600 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
AND LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 6 AM MON...H2O VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPACT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO WESTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING. RICH MOISTURE PLUME
ADVANCING NORTHWARD TO ITS EAST WILL OVERSPREAD E NC THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK LOW PRES IS LOCATED ACROSS SRN SC.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LAYER STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
INDICATES DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON EASTERN NC...MAXING OUT
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH VALS AOA 16 G/KG. SCT/WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING
EAST TO THE COAST LATE. GFS HAS COME INTO LINE WITH ECMWF AND
THEREFORE HAVE INC POPS TO LIKELIES.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS ALONG WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER. THOUGH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVING SOME
TRAINING OF HEAVIER CELLS ALONG STALLED INTERIOR SFC FRONT COULD
BRING ABOUT A LOW RISK FOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ANOTHER THREAT THAT MAY COME INTO PLAY WOULD
BE AN ISO TORNADO...AS E NC WILL BE UNDER BACKED ESE SFC FLOW MUCH
OF THE DAY. 0-1KM SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 25KT THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON... AND ALTHOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LAPSE
RATES ARE PRESENT...ANY UPDRAFTS WOULD BE ROOTED IN FAVORABLE NEAR
SFC ENVIRONMENT WITH HODOGRAPHS INDICATIVE OF LOW TOPPED
SUPERCELLS SHOULD ANY STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED.

TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
OVC SKIES. READINGS WILL BE IN THE 80-84 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES MOVE TO THE COASTAL
AREASS BY THIS EVENING WITH POPS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. THUNDER THREAT SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
MOST AREAS WILL BE RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT AS WNW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW. FOG MAY DEVELOP AS TODAYS HEAVY RAINS
AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN IN WAKE OF LOW AS WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND
TO MID 70S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MON...PRECIP THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST
EARLY TUE WHERE AXIS OF BEST PRECIP WTR IS LOCATED. WILL ALSO HAVE
SOME LIFT ASSOC WITH DAMPENING SHORT WAVE CROSSING. LATER TUE
FORCING WILL BE OFFSHORE HOWEVER WITH HEATING MAY SEE WDLY SCT TO
SCT CONVECTION FIRE IN MOIST/WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL MID TO LATE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. TYPICAL SUMMERY
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR PRECIP BEING
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE FOR INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON...AND HAVE A
GENERAL SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SMALL SHOWER
CHANCES WILL TRANSITION TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND MAINLY OFFSHORE
WATERS EACH NIGHT...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS 85-90 AND LOWS
70- 75...SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 6 AM MON...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE
AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW
WILL PRODUCE SCT TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.
VSBYS AND CIGS WILL OCNL DROP TO SUB VFR TODAY IN AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT NW TONIGHT. SETUP FOR IFR OR LOWER FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS IN WAKE OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS AND DEPARTING LOW.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MON...A FEW PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY TUE ASSOC WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. PRED VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN LATER TUE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...WEAK LOW PRES ACROSS SRN SC WILL RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EASTERLY
TODAY...BECOMING S THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH THE
INLAND AREAS...THEN W TO N BY 12Z TUESDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOME 4 FOOTERS SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES A BIT THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MON...OVERALL BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN
FEATURE. LOOSE GRDNT WILL RESULT IN WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS. DIR
TRICKY WITH MDLS DIFFERING ESPCLY GFS WHICH SHOW A BETTER DEFINED
LOW OFF THE COAST TUE INTO WED. REGARDLESS OF DIR WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS SEAS SHLD BE 1 TO 3 FEET THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/BTC/TL
MARINE...RF/BTC/TL


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