Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 261335
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
935 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the mid-Atlantic coast will move east today.
An area of low pressure off the coast of Georgia this evening will
move northeast tonight and Tuesday. A cold front will pass
through from the west Tuesday night. An area of low pressure over
the Great Lakes Wednesday will move into the mid-Atlantic states
Friday and linger into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 935 am Mon...Latest sfc analysis shows 1024mb high pressure
centered over the NE US extending into the Carolinas. High will
gradually shift eastward today off the east coast. Main change
this morning was to update cloud cover based on latest satellite
trends. Area of currently clouds extending from the western edge
of the Albemarle Sound down towards Kenansville...with areas east
mostly clear. Expect skies to become partly cloudy across the area
this afternoon. Light northeast flow early this morning will
steadily veer to southeast by late afternoon. Forecast soundings
show moisture will be slow to return during the day and will keep
forecast dry across the entire area. Highs will be in the upper
70s northeast to lower 80s southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 am Mon...Models show weak area of low pressure and
associated area of vorticity off the coast of Georgia this evening
moving northeast overnight. Moisture will increase across the
region, especially from the south. Introduced PoPs after 06Z with
best chance on the south coast and adjacent coastal waters and
only slight chance northern Outer Banks. Instability is poor so
did not mention thunder. Lows in the mid 60s coastal plain to
lower 70s Outer Banks and south coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Unsettled through Thu then a bit drier by the
weekend.

Tue through Thu...Cold front will approach from the W Tue with
area of low pres lifting NE offshore of the coast. Expect decent
cvrg of shra and a few tsra Tue espcly along central and srn cst
early and inland late...for now will cap pops a 50 percent. The
low will depart to the NE Tue Night however the front will sag
into the region Wed and Thu as upr low drops into the Ohio Valley
region keeping decent chc of shra going...again will cap at 50
percent given uncertainty on coverage and timing. Temps close to
seasonal for late Sept with highs 70s to lower 80s and lows 60s
inland to around 70 beaches.

Fri through Sun...The upr low to the NW will slowly move E or NE
into the weekend. Does look like drier mid lvl air will grad spread
E pushing bulk of the precip offshore Fri into the weekend. Cont
prev fcst of slight pops imd cntrl and srn cst with no pop inland this
period. Highs will be mainly 75 to 80 with lows around 60 inland
to around 70 OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 7 am Mon...VFR for most of the short term. Broken cloud
deck early this morning will scatter out after sunrise and
continue through the day, generally around 5 kft. A period of
higher clouds forecast this evening around 10 kft this evening,
but MVFR cigs around 2.5 kft will move in after midnight along
with scattered mainly light showers. Surface winds will be east
around 5 knots today, and southeast around 5 knots tonight.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Decent cvrg of shra into Thu with poss some
isold trsa Tue and Tue Night. The precip will lead to a few
periods of sub VFR thru Thu. Drier air will work in from the W Fri
with decreasing chc of shra and mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 935 am Mon...Latest obs show E/NE winds 5-10 kt north of
Hatteras and 10-20 kt south with seas 2-4 ft. Main change was to
increase winds and seas slightly south of Hatteras based on obs.
Models take the surface ridge along the mid-Atlantic coast east
today and tonight. A weak area of low pressure off the coast of
Georgia this evening will move northeast overnight. Winds will
gradually veer from northeast early this morning to east this
afternoon, then further to south southeast tonight. Seas will
average 2-4 feet today and tonight.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Wind dir will be tricky much of the period. On
Tue weak low lifts NE along cst as cold front slowly approaches
from the W. S to SE winds 10 to 15 kts early Tue ahead of
approaching cold front will become more E to poss NE as low lifts
NE just offshore late Tue into Tue night. The low will depart Wed
however the front is expected to stall near of just W of region
leading to variable winds Wed becoming more SW late in week with
speeds aob 15 kts. Seas expected to be in the 2 to 4 foot range
thru the period. There is potential for a bit stronger winds and
higher seas assoc with the low Tue and will have to monitor later
model runs.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     103-104.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA



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