Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 312015
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
415 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure, the remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie, will drift
very slowly northeast across eastern North Carolina through
Thursday, finally moving off the coast of the Outer Banks Thursday
night. A cold front will move into the area Saturday and become
stationary, dissipating Sunday into Monday. A second cold front
will move through Sunday night with high pressure expected late
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Band of showers/isolated tstms with locally
heavy downpours will persist mainly along and west of KOCW-KNCA
line next few hours with only isolated to scattered coverage rest
of area. Latest guidance indicates inland activity will dissipate
with loss of heating around 8 PM but will continue chance POPs all
zones rest of evening, with scattered wording for southern-most
sections where activity may continue to move in off water around
Bonnie remnant low. Models generally indicate a repeat of last
night with low clouds developing overnight along with scattered to
broken coverage of showers/isolated tstms moving in off water and
affecting mainly coastal and southern sections. Have adjusted POPs
to reflect this trend with likely POPs overnight south and coast
and chance inland. Low temps upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Models indicate Bonnie remnant low moving
only very slowly north between Cape Fear and Cape Lookout with
somewhat of a repeat of convective precipitation development. Will
have likely POPs for southern half of area and chance north with
locally heavy downpours again possible. Max temps near 80 beaches
to lower 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...The remnants of Bonnie will continue to
produce a scattered convective threat through Thursday. The low
will move east of the area Friday but a moist and unstable airmass
remains in place ahead of an approaching weak front which stalls
near the area as we move into the weekend keeping a threat of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend
followed by a stronger front moving through Sunday night into Monday.

Wednesday night through Thursday...The remnants of Bonnie will
slowly track across/along the Eastern NC coast through mid-week
before finally moving to the east Thursday night into Friday. A
tropical airmass with precipitable water values around 1.8-2
inches, combined with diurnally enhanced instability, will continue
to bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
A slow and potentially stationary storm motion will continue to
bring a threat of heavy downpours producing a localized flooding
threat across the region. Highs in the low to mid 80 inland with
lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Thursday night through Saturday...Shower chances diminish Thursday
night into Friday as the remnant low moves east of the region but
a continued moist and unstable airmass with an approaching weak
front and gradually falling heights aloft will continue to bring a
threat of showers and thunderstorms across the region. The front
is progged to be west across the piedmont Friday but convection
initiating across central NC could move into the coastal plain
during the afternoon along with the possibility of sea breeze
convection closer to the coast. Thursday night into early Friday
should be mostly dry for inland sections with a low chance pops
for the coastal zones. Models differ some with just how far the
front pushes into the region Friday night and Saturday but latest
consensus stalls the front near the Albemarle Sound region. Better
convective coverage expected Saturday as the front will be
across, or at least very close to, to northern portions of the CWA.
Increasing low level thicknesses and greater insolation will allow
temps to warm into the mid to upper 80s for highs with lows around
70.

Sunday through Tuesday...Deep layer moist SW flow increases
across the region Sunday into Sunday night as a digging upper
trough and stronger cold front approaches from the west. Moderate
instability and increasing shear will continue to bring a threat
of showers and thunderstorms across the region. Models have come
into better agreement with regards to timing of the front,
suggesting the front will move through Eastern NC late Sunday
night into early Monday, with a drying trend by midday Monday.
Tuesday will be dry with light westerly flow and thicknesses
supporting max temps in the mid 80s inland to upper 70s coast.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through 18z Wednesday/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday...Band of showers/isolated tstms will produce
period of sub VFR conditions mainly at KOAJ and KISO next few
hours while most of area remains VFR. VFR expected to persist this
evening with convective activity becoming more scattered. Moist
low levels and light winds will result in redevelopment of IFR
stratus overnight with scattered shower/isolated tstm threat near
coast. Conditions improving to VFR by late morning with lingering
shower/tstm threat as Bonnie remnant low slowly moves NE across
area.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 335 PM Tuesday...Remnant tropical low will drift along and
near the NC coast through Thursday bringing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Shower activity expected to be diurnally
enhanced with greatest coverage during the afternoon hours. While
the remnants of Bonnie move out by Friday, a moist unstable
airmass continues across the region Friday into Saturday ahead of
a weak frontal system and expect showers and thunderstorms
chances to persist through the long term. Periods of MVFR/IFR
possible with heavier showers and storms through period. With low
levels very moist could also have some light fog/lower stratus
develop during the late night/early morning hours as winds are
expected to be very light.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Bonnie remant low off Cape Fear will move
only very slowly NE tonight and Wednesday with no stregthening
expected. Thus previous forecast on track with current NE to E
winds around 10 KT gradually becoming E to SE with some speeds to
15 KT over southern and central waters Wednesday. Seas mainly 3-4
feet with some 5 FT heights for outer portions of southern and
central waters.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...The remnants of Bonnie will slowly move
across/along the Eastern NC coast into Thursday, then will lift
northeast of the area Thursday night and Friday ahead of an
approaching front. Winds will veer to S to SW Thursday and finally
to NW to N Thursday night with the low departing the region. Light
and variable winds expected Friday, becoming SW around 5-15 kt
Friday night and Saturday ahead of a weak front. There is some
uncertainty in the models with just how far the front pushes into
the region and latest consensus pushes just into the Albemarle
Sound region. Mainly followed NWPS with seas generally 3-5 ft
Wednesday which subsides to 2-4 ft by late Thursday through the
end of the period. Wavewatch does produce a few periods of seas up
to 6 ft closer to the Gulf Stream Wednesday into Thursday but
sided with NWPS. Wavewatch appeared reasonable Saturday but
slightly overdone Sunday in warm-advection/southerly flow 10-20
kt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 400 PM Tuesday...Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected over the area through Thursday as the
remnants of TD Bonnie drift slowly across the region. The showers
and storms will have locally heavy downpours and are expected to
produce rainfall amounts generally between 1 to 2 inches with
locally higher amounts possible. This heavy rain will likely lead
to some localized minor poor drainage flooding and ponding on
roads.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     103-104.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK/DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG
HYDROLOGY...MHX


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