Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 021453

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
953 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

High pressure will build in from the northwest through early
Sunday, bringing cool and dry weather. Several areas of low
pressure will affect the area Sunday night through Tuesday.


As of 945 AM Friday...Zonal flow aloft and sfc high pressure will
continue to build into the area from the NW. Good deal of dry air
filtering into the area as KMHX UA sounding had a PW of 0.38" this
morning. Plenty of sunshine today, but temperatures will be
cooler than yesterday as low level thicknesses have dropped approx
33m. Expect highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.


As of 400 AM Friday...Cold and dry air mass will continue to build
in from the northwest with a secondary surge of CAA overnight as a
short wave moves across to north in zonal flow. Min temps from mid
30s inland to around 40 OBX.


As of 330 AM Fri...Dry and cool for the first part of the period
then a mild and unsettled regime late Sunday through Tuesday,
followed by mainly dry and warm mid week.

Saturday...Cool and dry as high pres noses into E NC from the
Great Lakes region. Highs will be in the low/mid 50s under light
NW winds. Sat night will see a steady inc and thickening of high
cirrus as WAA develops aloft with moisture streaming in from the
west. Low temps may be realized prior to midnight before rising
thereafter. Mins should once again be in the 30s (40s beaches).

Sunday...Mainly dry continues for Sunday though continued warming
and moistening of the column aloft per model sndgs indicating a
lowering of overcast cloud deck to around 9K ft by late afternoon.
Could even see some light rain break out as early as late
afternoon esp across the far SW coastal plain and will retain low
chc pops here. Highs will continue cool with light northerly flow
and cloudy skies with temps in the 50s again.

Sunday Night...Med range guidance has come into better agreement
in fcsting an unsettled regime. The 02/00Z GFS continues a bit
drier than the CMC/ECM/NAM but has come into somewhat better
agreement. Have therefore raised pops to likely area wide Sun
night as area of decent isentropic lift develops courtesy of
strengthening of swrly LLJ and spreads rain across the entire
area. Some of the energy will go into moistening of the dry low
levels but this should be overcome by evening as entire column
saturates prior to 06Z.

Monday through Tuesday...There may be a break in the precip on
Monday as area of lift moves offshore and winds back to the north
with high trying to nose into the area from the Great Lakes
region. Think clouds will remain mostly cloudy however as already
next larger system to the west develops and moves this way.
Thicknesses/hts do rise a bit and expect temps in the 55-60 degree
range, held down a bit due to the mostly cloudy skies. Strong
compact shortwave trough will eject out of the southern plains and
move NE Monday night into Tuesday. Good model agreement with this
system bringing decent amount of rain during this time frame.
Strong omega develops by Mon night as strengthening S flow
develops on 50 kt LLJ. At the sfc, winds will be onshore and
easterly. Deep moisture combined with the strong omega will bring
widespread showers Mon night into Tue and have raised pops to
likely area wide. Mild temps expected with lows in the upper
40s/lower 50s and highs in the 60s.

Wednesday through Thursday...System will exit by Tue night into
Wed bringing end to showers. It will continue to be mild behind
this system as upr ridge amplifies across the eastern CONUS in
response to deepening trough across the Intermountain West. Temps
above climo expected with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper
40s to lower 50s.


Short Term /Through 12Z Saturday/...
As of 645 AM Friday...High confidence of VFR conditions thru the
TAF period. High pressure will slowly build in from the west with
drier air and clear skies. Secondary CAA surge will produce some mixing
tonight and keep temp/dew point spread 3-5 degrees which will preclude
patchy steam fog threat.

Long Term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri...VFR with mostly clear skies expected into Sat
as high pres builds in from the NW with light NW winds through
this period. Thickening high clouds expected on Sunday, lowering
to sub VFR Sunday night with widespread rain developing. Skies may
lift to VFR on Monday though lower again Monday night into Tuesday
with low pressure and more rain expected. Winds will be generally
light through the period.


Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 945 AM Friday...Latest bouy obs are showing N/NW winds 10-15
knots and seas 3-5 ft across the coastal waters. Had to update the
seas to 4-5 ft along the central/norhtern waters for an extra few
hours per latest buoy obs. Secondary CAA surge overnight with
15-20 KT winds produced elevated seas that are still lingering
this morning. Latest guidance still indicates winds/seas
diminishing late morning into afternoon, then increasing again

/Previous discussion/
As of 400 AM Friday...Current CAA surge with gusts to around 20
KT northern and central waters will diminish by mid morning with
speeds mainly 10-15 KT this afternoon. Another CAA surge will
develop tonight and latest guidance has trended stronger with
winds for northern and central waters with solid 20 KT sustained
speeds supporting frequent gusts around 25 KT. Posted SCA North of
Cape Lookout and including Pamlico Sound starting this evening and
extending into Saturday morning. Seas 2-4 feet today will build to
3-5 feet tonight.

Long Term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Wind speed and direction is tricky the
beginning of next week due to uncertainty in expected surface
pattern with a potential low pres area and cold front affecting
the waters, though position and timing of this system is still in
question. For now will fcst increasing winds and seas to SCA Mon
night into Tue though the specifics will likely be fine tuned as
the system moves evolves and moves towards the area.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST
     Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon EST
     Saturday for AMZ150.


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