Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 280709
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
309 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016
Bermuda high pressure offshore with a trough inland will persist
through the weekend. A weak cool front will approach from the
northwest next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 255 AM Thursday, cluster of convection has moved well
offshore with weak subsidence across the region currently. Mixed
signals from the various short-range models with regards to the
extent/coverage of convection today. Latest NAM and GFS are
relatively dry while some of the higher-resolution models
including the RAP/HRRR and ARW show scattered storms along the sea
breeze during the afternoon and evening hours. Have continued
close to the previous forecast with low chance PoPs far inland,
slight chance to the east of that, and with little or no PoPs
along the southern coast. The other issue today is the heat. Have
another Heat Advisory in effect for all but Outer Banks Hyde
County. Contemplated an Excessive Heat Advisory for some of the
counties between the Albemarle and Pamlico Sound, as heat indices
may exceed 110 degrees for a few hours, but with only a couple of
counties potentially affected, stayed with Heat Advisory for now,
as dayshift can further evaluate. High temperatures inland today
will reach the mid/upper 90s with around 90 to the lower 90s coast
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Thursday, threat of convection lingers until around
02Z or so before model soundings indicate some drying of the
column and somewhat lower precipitable water values by later
tonight. Temperatures will still be quite warm with lows mid/upper
70s and lower 80s coast.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3am Thu...The hot and mainly dry pattern will be shifting
toward a wetter and slightly cooler one during the long term. The
axis of the Bermuda high will shift further south with broad upper
trof through much of the period, with numerous shortwaves moving
through the flow over a warm, humid, unstable airmass. Piedmont
trof will remain in place through the weekend. Next week though,
the frontal boundary to the north will slowly move south, reaching
the NC/VA border 12Z Tuesday, then further south to the southern
coastal area 12Z Wednesday. Convection on Friday will be isolated
and concentrated mainly along and just east of the coastal plain.
There will be a better chance for storms Saturday as the Piedmont
trof shifts toward the coast and models depict a shortwave moving
through during the day, with a similar setup for Sunday. PoPs go
up further to likely early next week, with the frontal boundary
moving south into the warm, humid, unstable airmass at the
surface, while the upper trof sharpens a bit with several
disturbances moving through the flow. Highs in the lower to mid
90s will continue into Saturday, with slightly cooler temps
thereafter due to increased cloud cover and better chances for
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short term /Through 06Z Friday/...
As of 105 AM Thursday, generally high debris cloudiness covers
the region as band of convection has moved offshore. Will continue
to include some patchy MVFR fog for KEWN as they received some
recent rain from the thunderstorms earlier in the evening.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday but will
continue to include TSRA for KPGV and KISO for late-day storms.
Long Term /Friday through Monday/
As of 3am Thu...Pattern become more stormy as the Bermuda high
shifts south and a frontal boundary approaches from the north
early next week. Sub-VFR in isolated convection Friday, scattered
Saturday, and numerous Sunday and Monday. Surface winds SW 10-15
Friday, S 5-10 knots Saturday, SW 10 knots or less Sunday and
Short Term /Today and Tonight/
As of 305 AM Thursday, as prediction by several models, winds have
diminished a bit over the past few hours and are currently SW at
10-15 knots or less on the sounds and coastal waters. Seas are
currently ranging from 1 foot off of Duck to 4 feet at Diamond
Buoy. Winds should continue SW today and tonight at 5-15 knots
with seas generally 2-3 feet per latest local NWPS/SWAN wave
Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/
As of 3am Thu...SW flow continues through the period. Axis of
Bermuda high will shift further south, while a frontal boundary
approaches from the north early next week, with the result being
an increasing chance of seeing thunderstorms across the marine
zones. Flow will continue from the SW through the period, with
10-20 knots and seas 2-4 feet on the coastal waters, and 5-15
knots on the adjacent sounds and rivers.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for