Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 240222
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
922 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area through Friday night
with low pressure moving across to the south and southeast.
A dry cold front will move through from the northwest Saturday
night. High pressure will build in from the west Sunday and
Monday and will extend over the area Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 920 PM Thursday...Latest sfc analysis shows 1019mb high
centered over NC and the Mid-Atlantic region this evening, with
weak low off the SE coast. No sig changes needed to previous
forecast for update. Latest satellite imagery shows broken to
overcast high mid and high clouds persisting across Eastern NC
this evening, courtesy of shortwave energy moving through trough
over SE US. Deeper moisture is attempting to spread over area
from S-SW as well but is being held off by deep dry air below
700 MB. Shortwave will continue to move NE overnight with mean
trough moving east, and models in general agreement that main
rain shield will remain just off the coast. Based on the latest
radar imagery the past several hours that still seems to be the
case. Kept 20% POP from Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras areas
overnight with GFS and ECMWF both indicating some light precip
possible there. Cloud cover will limit temps from falling
quickly this evening but some clearing late will allow lows to
drop to lower 30s inland to mid 40s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM Thursday...Shortwave will continue to gradually
move east of area leading to mostly sunny skies west to partly
sunny east and precip removing offshore. Increased insolation
and rising thicknesses will allow max temps to warm to near 60
most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2 AM Thu...High pressure wl build in from the NW Fri night.
Models cont trend of keeping better moisture offshore so only
have small pop over waters. Lows Fri night upper 30s/lower 40s
inland and mid 40s to around 50 beaches.

Weak low will lift NE offshore of the coast Sat as a cold front
approaches from the W. Again bulk of models mainly dry with
just small chc of shra over central and srn coastal waters.
Temps will moderate a bit Sat with highs mainly 60 to 65. The
cold front will cross Sat night...looks dry with very little
moisture assoc with fropa. Best CAA holds off til Sun with lows
ranging from around 40 inland to around 50 beaches.

High pres will build in from the W Sun and Mon then move offshore
Tue and Wed with dry weather. Wl be cool early with strong
warming by midweek. Highs Sun and Mon will be in the 50s. Lows
will be chilly Sun night and Mon night lower/mid 30s inland and
mostly 40s beaches. As the high slides offshore Tue and Wed WAA
will develop with highs Tue in the the low/mid 60s...warming to
mid/upr 60s Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through Friday/...
As of 920 PM Thursday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
the period. Broken to overcast mid and high clouds this evening,
will gradually begin to clear from west to east late tonight
and early Fri. Guidance keeps VFR conditions tonight but with
light winds and cold temps cannot rule out patchy steam fog
along the rivers, primarily affecting PGV and possibly EWN.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 2 AM Thu...Mainly VFR expected through the period. High
pres with limited clouds Fri. Weak low moving NE offshore and
approaching cold front Sat will lead to more clouds but not
expecting much if any precip at taf sites. Dry cold front will
cross Sat night with high pres building in Sun and Mon leading
to mclr skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Friday/...
As of 920 PM Thursday...Latest obs show N/NE winds 5-10 kt
north of Hatteras, and 10-20 kt south of Hatteras with seas 3-5
ft. Latest guidance is indicating tightening pressure gradient
with low developing to south overnight, producing NE winds near
20 KT southern half of waters and seas building back to 6 ft
outer portions. Thus new SCA posted for south of Oregon Inlet
from 4 AM to 3 PM Friday. Winds expected to diminish during the
day but elevated seas will linger into afternoon.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 2 AM Thu...High pres will build in from the W Fri night with
NE winds around 15 kts and 3 to 5 foot seas. Weak low pres will
lift NE offshore early Sat with a cold front approaching from
the W late. N to NW winds 5 to 15 kts early Sat will become more
W later in the day with seas 2 to 4 feet. The cold front will
cross Sat night with NNW winds increasing to 15 to 25 kts Sun
and seas building to 4 to 6 feet...highest outer central nrn
waters. As the high builds closer Mon N winds will diminish to
mainly less than 10 kts with seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in
the aftn.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/CQD
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD


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